Rafael H M Pereira

Rafael H M Pereira
Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA · Diretoria de Estudos e Políticas Regionais, Urbanas e Ambientais

DPhil (Oxon) MSc

About

106
Publications
42,706
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Introduction
Rafael H M Pereira is a researcher at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea) in Brazil. He recently completed his PhD at the Transport Studies Unit (TSU) at Oxford University. Rafael’s research is broadly concerned with the role of urban and transport policies in shaping the spatial organization of cities, people’s accessibility to opportunities as well as health and social inequalities. Blog - https://www.urbandemographics.org/ Twitter - https://twitter.com/UrbanDemog
Additional affiliations
April 2008 - present
Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA
Position
  • Researcher

Publications

Publications (106)
Article
Full-text available
The spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil Brazil has been hard-hit by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. Candido et al. combined genomic and epidemiological analyses to investigate the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in the country. By setting up a network of genomic laboratories using harmonized pr...
Article
Background: The COVID-19 situation in Brazil is complex due to large differences in the shape and size of regional epidemics. Understanding these patterns is crucial to understand future outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 or other respiratory pathogens in the country. Methods: We tested 97,950 blood donation samples for IgG antibodies from March 2020 to Marc...
Article
Full-text available
SARS-CoV-2 serologic surveys estimate the proportion of the population with antibodies against historical variants, which nears 100% in many settings. New approaches are required to fully exploit serosurvey data. Using a SARS-CoV-2 anti-Spike (S) protein chemiluminescent microparticle assay, we attained a semi-quantitative measurement of population...
Article
Transport accounts for 24% of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. Governments face challenges in developing feasible and equitable mitigation strategies to reduce energy consumption and manage the transition to low-carbon transport systems. To meet the local and global transport emission reduction targets, policymakers need more realistic/sophi...
Preprint
Cumulative accessibility measures allow one to estimate the number of opportunities that can be reached within a given travel time threshold. They have become the most commonly used metric in transport research and planning because of how simple it makes to calculate and communicate accessibility results. However, cumulative opportunity measures re...
Preprint
A fair distribution of accessibility to key activities is a central concern for distributive justice in transport planning. This implies that disparities in accessibility and the negative effects associated with a lack of accessibility should be mitigated. However, even though accessibility is not purely spatial or static, it is conventionally trea...
Article
Full-text available
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Gamma variant of concern has spread rapidly across Brazil since late 2020, causing substantial infection and death waves. Here we used individual-level patient records after hospitalization with suspected or confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) between 20 January 2020 and 26...
Preprint
Background SARS-CoV-2 serologic surveys estimate the proportion of the population with antibodies against historical variants which nears 100% in many settings. New analytic approaches are required to exploit the full information in serosurvey data. Method Using a SARS-CoV-2 anti-Spike (S) protein chemiluminescent microparticle assay, we attained...
Preprint
flightsbr is a R package to download flight and airport data from Brazil’s Civil Aviation Agency (ANAC) . The data includes detailed information on all aircrafts, aerodromes, airports, and airport movements registered in ANAC, and on every international flight to and from Brazil, as well as domestic flights within the country. GitHub: https://githu...
Article
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 on air travel demand and emissions in Brazil, the largest aviation market in Latin America. Combining detailed flight data and data on combustion emission factors, we estimate the CO2 emissions of domestic flights. A Bayesian structural time-series model was used to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on...
Preprint
Full-text available
There are large differences in the shape and size of regional SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in Brazil. Here we tested monthly blood donation samples for IgG antibodies from March 2020 to March 2021 in eight of Brazil’s most populous cities. There was large variation in the inferred attack rate adjusted for seroreversion across cities, and seroprevalence was...
Preprint
The COVID-19 pandemic has shed light on how the spread of infectious diseases worldwide are importantly shaped by both human mobility networks and socio-economic factors. Few studies, however, have examined the interaction of mobility networks with socio-spatial inequalities to understand the spread of infection. We introduce a novel methodology, c...
Preprint
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 on air travel demand and emissions in Brazil, the largest aviation market in Latin America. Combining detailed flight data and data on combustion emission factors, we estimate the CO2 emissions of domestic flights. A Bayesian structural time-series model was used to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on...
Article
Transport inequality analyses are often informed by accessibility estimates based solely on travel time impedance, ignoring other elements that might hinder access to activities, such as the monetary cost of a trip. This paper examines how and to what extent simultaneously incorporating both time and monetary costs into accessibility measures may i...
Preprint
Full-text available
In this paper we analyze how socio-spatial inequalities have been shaped by transport and land-use planning in Curitiba (Brazil), a city internationally recognized for its Transit Oriented Development (TOD) planning based on Bus Rapid Transit (BRT). We examine how the spatial organization of the BRT system is associated with the distribution of pop...
Article
Full-text available
Background Brazil is one of the countries worst affected by the COVID-19 pandemic with over 20 million cases and 557,000 deaths reported by August 2021. Comparison of real-time local COVID-19 data between areas is essential for understanding transmission, measuring the effects of interventions, and predicting the course of the epidemic, but are oft...
Technical Report
One sentence summary COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates fluctuate dramatically in Brazil, and these fluctuations are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity. Abstract The SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant spread rapidly across Brazil, causing substantial infection and death waves. We use individual-level patient...
Preprint
Full-text available
The SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant spread rapidly across Brazil, causing substantial infection and death waves. We use individual-level patient records following hospitalisation with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 to document the extensive shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed Gamma’s spread across 14 state capitals, and in which more than hal...
Preprint
Introduction chapter to the book Pereira & G. Boisjoly (Editors), Social Issues in Transport Planning (Advances in Transport Policy and Planning Vol. 8). Elsevier. 2021
Article
Full-text available
Este estudo apresenta um diagnóstico de como o uso do transporte individual motorizado e do transporte coletivo tem evoluído desde o início dos anos 2000 nas cidades brasileiras. Nós analisamos dados sobre mudanças no padrão de consumo de bens e serviços de transporte, o aumento de renda das famílias, além da evolução dos custos de transporte urban...
Article
Reducing road fatalities is a key policy goal in several countries and there is a vast literature on what factors affect road safety performance. Nonetheless, there is limited evidence on whether highway concessions and Public Private Partnerships (PPP) can bring road safety benefits, despite the growing number of countries adopting this type of po...
Preprint
Transport equity analyses are often informed by accessibility estimates based solely on travel time impedance, ignoring other elements that might hinder access to activities, such as the monetary cost of a trip. This paper examines how and to what extent simultaneously incorporating both time and monetary costs into accessibility measures may impac...
Article
Full-text available
Access (the ease of reaching valued destinations) is underpinned by land use and transport infrastructure. The importance of access in transport, sustainability, and urban economics is increasingly recognized. In particular, access provides a universal unit of measurement to examine cities for the efficiency of transport and land-use systems. This...
Chapter
Full-text available
Serviços de ride-hailing de empresas como Uber, DiDi e 99 modificaram consideravelmente os hábitos de mobilidade urbana em diversas cidades no mundo. Apesar da presença desses serviços na maioria das cidades brasileiras, ainda se sabe muito pouco sobre o perfil sociodemográfico e os padrões de consumo dos usuários de mobilidade por aplicativo no Br...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background Brazil is one of the countries worst affected by the COVID-19 pandemic with over 20 million cases and 557,000 deaths reported. Comparison of real-time local COVID-19 data between areas is essential for understanding transmission, measuring the effects of interventions and predicting the course of the epidemic, but are often challenging d...
Article
Full-text available
Accessibility is increasingly recognised as a key purpose of transport policies. Most of the common practices found both in academic studies and policy planning draw on relatively simple accessibility measures taken as ‘objective’ indicators that only focus on the interaction between land use and transport. Relatively little attention has been paid...
Article
A política federal de produção habitacional no Brasil historicamente segue um modelo no qual predomina a construção em larga escala de unidades habitacionais em áreas periféricas e afastadas dos centros urbanos (Cardoso, 2013; Krause et al., 2013). Apesar de inúmeras críticas, esse modelo de política nacional tem sido comumente adotado desde a cria...
Article
Full-text available
Unmitigated spread in Brazil Despite an extensive network of primary care availability, Brazil has suffered profoundly during the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. Using daily data from state health offices, Castro et al. analyzed the pattern of spread of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the country from February to...
Article
Full-text available
Introduction Little evidence exists on the differential health effects of COVID-19 on disadvantaged population groups. Here we characterise the differential risk of hospitalisation and death in São Paulo state, Brazil, and show how vulnerability to COVID-19 is shaped by socioeconomic inequalities. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study using...
Article
Full-text available
Routing is a key step in transport planning and research. Nonetheless, researchers and practitioners often face challenges when performing this task due to long computation times and the cost of licensed software. R5 is a multimodal transport network router that offers multiple routing features, such as calculating travel times over a time window a...
Preprint
Full-text available
The drastic reduction in economic activities caused by the COVID-19 pandemic creates a unique and timely opportunity to examine the environmental impacts of human activity. In several countries, the aviation sector was dramatically affected by the travel restrictions, resulting in a change of trip demand and in a drop of fuel consumption. Nonethele...
Article
Full-text available
Brazil has one of the fastest-growing COVID-19 epidemics worldwide. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been adopted at the municipal level with asynchronous actions taken across 5,568 municipalities and the Federal District. This paper systematises the fragmented information on NPIs reporting on a novel dataset with survey responses from...
Article
Full-text available
Brazil has one of the fastest-growing COVID-19 epidemics worldwide. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been adopted at the municipal level with asynchronous actions taken across 5,568 municipalities and the Federal District. This paper systematises the fragmented information on NPIs reporting on a novel dataset with survey responses from...
Preprint
Full-text available
Cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Manaus, Brazil, resurged in late 2020, despite high levels of previous infection there. Through genome sequencing of viruses sampled in Manaus between November 2020 and January 2021, we identified the emergence and circulation of a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern, lineage P.1, that acquired 17 mutations, includi...
Article
The rapid spread of COVID-19 across the world has raised concerns about the responsiveness of cities and healthcare systems during pandemics. Recent studies try to model how the number of COVID-19 infections will likely grow and impact the demand for hospitalization services at national and regional levels. However, less attention has been paid to...
Article
Full-text available
Attack rate in Manaus Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) incidence peaked in Manaus, Brazil, in May 2020 with a devastating toll on the city's inhabitants, leaving its health services shattered and cemeteries overwhelmed. Buss et al. collected data from blood donors from Manaus and São Paulo, noted when transmission began...
Chapter
Transportation equity is a way to frame distributive justice concerns in relation to how social, economic, and government institutions shape the distribution of transportation benefits and burdens in society. It focuses on the evaluative standards used to judge the differential impacts of policies and plans, asking who benefits from and is burdened...
Article
Full-text available
Acessibilidade é um conceito chave no planejamento integrado dos transportes e uso do solo. Dados de General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) têm sido usados com sucesso nos últimos anos como insumo na mensuração dos níveis de acessibilidade, mas são baseadas em viagens programadas de transporte público para estimar tempos de viagem entre pares or...
Article
We evaluated the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and risk factors among 4987 oligo/asymptomatic healthcare workers; seroprevalence was 14% and factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection were lower educational level (aOR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.03-3.60), using public transport to work (aOR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.07-2.62), and working in cleaning or security (aOR,...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background Little evidence exists on the differential health effects of COVID-19 on disadvantaged population groups. Here we characterise the differential risk of hospitalisation and death in São Paulo state, Brazil and show how vulnerability to COVID-19 is shaped by socioeconomic inequalities. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study using ho...
Preprint
Full-text available
Accessibility is increasingly recognised as a key purpose of transport policies. Most of the common practices found both in academic studies and policy planning draw on relatively simple accessibility measures taken as ‘objective’ indicators that only focus on the interaction between land use and transport. Relatively little attention has been paid...
Preprint
Transportation equity is a way to frame distributive justice concerns in relation to how social, economic, and government institutions shape the distribution of transportation benefits and burdens in society. It focuses on the evaluative standards used to judge the differential impacts of policies and plans, asking who benefits from and is burdened...
Preprint
Full-text available
The herd immunity threshold is the proportion of a population that must be immune to an infectious disease, either by natural infection or vaccination such that, in the absence of additional preventative measures, new cases decline and the effective reproduction number falls below unity. This fundamental epidemiological parameter is still unknown f...
Article
Full-text available
The first case of COVID-19 was detected in Brazil on 25 February 2020. We report and contextualize epidemiological, demographic and clinical findings for COVID-19 cases during the first 3 months of the epidemic. By 31 May 2020, 514,200 COVID-19 cases, including 29,314 deaths, had been reported in 75.3% (4,196 of 5,570) of municipalities across all...
Preprint
Full-text available
The rapid spread of the new coronavirus across the world has raised concerns about the responsiveness of cities and healthcare systems during pandemics. Recent studies try to model how the number of COVID-19 infections will likely grow and impact the demand for hospitalization services at national and regional levels. However, less attention has be...
Preprint
Full-text available
Reducing road fatalities is a key policy concern in several countries. Nonetheless, there is limited evidence on whether highway concessions and Public Private Partnerships (PPP) can bring road safety benefits, despite the growing number of countries adopting this policy to finance and manage road infrastructure. In this paper, we use a difference-...
Preprint
Full-text available
Brazil currently has one of the fastest growing SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in the world. Due to limited available data, assessments of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on virus transmission and epidemic spread remain challenging. We investigate the impact of NPIs in Brazil using epidemiological, mobility and genomic data. Mobility-dr...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background The first case of COVID-19 was detected in Brazil on February 25, 2020. We report the epidemiological, demographic, and clinical findings for confirmed COVID-19 cases during the first month of the epidemic in Brazil. Methods Individual-level and aggregated COVID-19 data were analysed to investigate demographic profiles, socioeconomic dri...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Esta nota técnica tem como objetivos: (1) estimar quantas são e onde moram as pessoas mais vulneráveis com maior dificuldade de acessar equipamentos de saúde; e (2) apontar quais são os estabelecimentos de saúde que poderão ter maior estrangulamento de demanda, considerando-se sua capacidade de oferta de leitos de unidades de tratamento intensivo (...
Article
Full-text available
Cities worldwide are pursuing policies to reduce car use and prioritise public transit (PT) as a means to tackle congestion, air pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. The increase of PT ridership is constrained by many aspects; among them, travel time and the built environment are considered the most critical factors in the choice of travel mode...
Preprint
Full-text available
Um dos principais objetivos das políticas de transporte urbano é facilitar o acesso das pessoas a oportunidades de emprego, serviços de saúde e educação, atividades culturais e de lazer. No entanto, os estudos e as políticas de mobilidade urbana no Brasil costumam dar ênfase aos desafios de reduzir congestionamentos e o tempo que as pessoas gastam...
Preprint
Full-text available
Accessibility is a key concept in transport and land use integrated planning. General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) has been used with success as a data source to estimate accessibility in recent years, but it relies on scheduled transit trips to estimate travel times between origin-destination pairs. On the other side, GPS data of a transit sy...
Article
Full-text available
The evaluation of social impacts of transport policies has been attracting growing attention in recent years. Yet studies thus far have predominately focused on developed countries and overlooked whether equity assessment of transport projects is sensitive to the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP). This paper investigates how investments in publi...
Article
Full-text available
PORT: As políticas de transporte público determinam em larga medida a facilidade com a qual pessoas de diferentes grupos sociais e níveis de renda conseguem acessar oportunidades de emprego, serviços de saúde e educação. Essas políticas têm, portanto, importantes implicações para a promoção de cidades mais justas e inclusivas. Esta pesquisa traz tr...
Article
This paper discusses the question about the right to the city and the influences of the dispute for the city on urban mobility, using São Paulo, Brazil's largest city, as a study case. We present the concept of the human mobility transition, which relates to the idea of large shifts in human mobility dynamics that have affected the constitution and...
Article
The accessibility impacts of transport projects ex-post implementation are generally evaluated using cumulative opportunity measures based on a single travel time threshold. Fewer studies have explored how accessibility appraisal of transport plans can be used to evaluate policy scenarios and their impacts for different social groups or examined wh...
Preprint
Full-text available
Public transport policies play a key role in shaping the social and spatial structure of cities. These policies influence how easily people can access opportunities, including health and educational services and job positions. The accessibility impacts of transport policies thus have important implications for social inequalities and for the promot...
Article
The concept of accessibility – the ease with which people can reach places or opportunities –lies at the heart of what makes cities livable, workable and sustainable. As urban populations shift over time, predicting the changes to accessibility demand for certain services becomes crucial for responsible and ‘smart’ urban planning and infrastructure...
Preprint
The concept of accessibility – the ease with which people can reach places or opportunities –lies at the heart of what makes cities livable, workable and sustainable. As urban populations shift over time, predicting the changes to accessibility demand for certain services becomes crucial for responsible and ‘smart’ urban planning and infrastructure...