Rafael Lozano

University of Washington | UW · Department of Global Health

Background: Aging, urbanization, and lifestyle changes have fueled the non-communicable diseases (NCDs) epidemic. Objective: Assess mortality, disability, risk factors and life expectancy in people aged ≥60 years (LE-60) in Mexico from 1990-2022 using estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk factors study. Material and me...

Antecedentes: El envejecimiento, la urbanización y cambios en los factores de riesgo han intensificado la epidemia de enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles (ECNT). Objetivo: Evaluar mortalidad, discapacidad, factores de riesgo y esperanza de vida en personas ≥ 60 años (EV-60) en México de 1990-2022, conforme a estimaciones del estudio de la Carga...

Background: Equitable health service utilization is key to health systems' optimal performance and universal health coverage. The evidence shows that men and women use health services differently. However, current analyses have failed to explore these differences in depth and investigate how such gender disparities vary by service type. This study...

Objectives: This study aimed to comprehensively evaluate Mexico's health system performance from 1990 to 2019 utilising the Health Access and Quality Index (HAQI) as a primary indicator. Study design: A retrospective ecological analysis was performed using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and the Nation...

Antecedentes: Desde hace treinta años, México ha estudiado la carga de la enfermedad para sustentar decisiones en salud. Objetivo: Analizar la carga de enfermedad, lesiones y factores de riesgo en México entre 1990 y 2021. Material y métodos: Se utilizaron las estimaciones del Global Burden of Disease 2021 para analizar la mortalidad, los años de...

Antecedentes: Entre 2020 y 2021, México experimentó 2.21 millones de defunciones, de las cuales 25.3 % estuvo relacionado con infección por SARS-COV-2. Objetivos: Evaluar la mortalidad por COVID-19 en 2020-2021, determinar su influencia en la esperanza de vida al nacer a nivel nacional, estatal y en países seleccionados de la región, así como anal...

Background The fragmentation of health systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) deepens health inequities and shifts the economic burden of health care to families via out-of-pocket spending (OOPHE). This problem has been addressed by introducing public health insurance programs for poor people; however, there is a lack of knowledge abou...

Background The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted health systems in 2020, but it is unclear how financial hardship due to out-of-pocket (OOP) health-care costs was affected. We analysed catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) in 2020 in five countries with available household expenditure data: Belarus, Mexico, Peru, Russia, and Viet Nam. In Mexico and Peru,...

Background Estimating and analyzing trends and patterns of health loss are essential to promote efficient resource allocation and improve Peru’s healthcare system performance. Methods Using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (2019), we assessed mortality and disability in Peru from 1990 to 2019. We...

Background: Estimating and analyzing trends and patterns of health loss are essential to promote efficient resource allocation and improve Peru’s healthcare system performance. Methods: Using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (2019), we assessed mortality and disability in Peru from 1990 to 2019. W...

Background As the leading cause of disability and the fourth leading cause of premature death in Mexico, type 2 diabetes (T2D) represents a serious public health concern. The incidence of diabetes has increased dramatically in recent years, and data from the Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT) indicate that many people remain und...

Latin America has experienced a rise in noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) which is having repercussions on the structuring of healthcare delivery and social protection for vulnerable populations. We examined catastrophic (CHE) and excessive (EHE, impoverishing and/or catastrophic) health care expenditures in Mexican households with and without elderl...

Background: Understanding the level and characteristics of protection from past SARS-CoV-2 infection against subsequent re-infection, symptomatic COVID-19 disease, and severe disease is essential for predicting future potential disease burden, for designing policies that restrict travel or access to venues where there is a high risk of transmissio...

Background. Estimates of the sub-national distribution of maternal disorders in Mexico beyond Maternal Mortality Ratios are scarce. Characterizing the sub-national variation of maternal disorders may make it possible to focus more on interventions and thereby reduce their occurrence in a more meaningful and sustained manner. Aim. To analyze and de...

Background: As the leading cause of disability and the fourth leading cause of premature death in Mexico, type 2 diabetes (T2D) represents a serious public health concern. The incidence of diabetes has increased dramatically in recent years, and data from the Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT) indicate that many people remain un...

Introduction It has been widely recognized that adolescents exhibit a low coverage rate for continuous maternal health services as a result of structural social disadvantages, often exacerbated by age-related discrimination. Notwithstanding its importance, this fact has received little attention during quantitative evaluations of health system perf...

Mexico ranks among the OECD countries with the highest prevalence of teenage pregnancies, exhibiting a fertility rate of 70.6 births for every 1000 adolescents. Mexican adolescents with a history of pregnancy are twice as likely to lag behind in their studies as those who have not been pregnant. Research on adolescent maternity and its explanatory...

Background High prevalence of diabetes has been reported in the Americas, but no comprehensive analysis of diabetes burden and related factors for the region is available. We aimed to describe the burden of type 1 and type 2 diabetes and that of hyperglycaemia in the Americas from 1990 to 2019. Methods We used estimates from GBD 2019 to evaluate t...

Background Meeting the contraceptive needs of women of reproductive age is beneficial for the health of women and children, and the economic and social empowerment of women. Higher rates of contraceptive coverage have been linked to the availability of a more diverse range of contraceptive methods. We present estimates of the contraceptive prevalen...

Background Timely, accurate, and comprehensive estimates of SARS-CoV-2 daily infection rates, cumulative infections, the proportion of the population that has been infected at least once, and the effective reproductive number (Reffective) are essential for understanding the determinants of past infection, current transmission patterns, and a popula...

Background: Gender is emerging as a significant factor in the social, economic, and health effects of COVID-19. However, most existing studies have focused on its direct impact on health. Here, we aimed to explore the indirect effects of COVID-19 on gender disparities globally. Methods: We reviewed publicly available datasets with information on...

Background Mortality statistics are fundamental to public health decision making. Mortality varies by time and location, and its measurement is affected by well known biases that have been exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper aims to estimate excess mortality from the COVID-19 pandemic in 191 countries and territories, and 252 subna...

Background National rates of COVID-19 infection and fatality have varied dramatically since the onset of the pandemic. Understanding the conditions associated with this cross-country variation is essential to guiding investment in more effective preparedness and response for future pandemics. Methods Daily SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 deaths...

Background Before 2020, mental disorders were leading causes of the global health-related burden, with depressive and anxiety disorders being leading contributors to this burden. The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic has created an environment where many determinants of poor mental health are exacerbated. The need for up-to-date information on the...

Objectives: The Carlos Slim Foundation implemented the Integrated Measurement for Early Detection (MIDO), a screening strategy for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Mexico as part of CASALUD, a portfolio of digital health services focusing on healthcare delivery and prevention/management of NCDs. We investigated the disease profile of the screen...

Importance Based on mortality estimates for 32 causes of death that are amenable to health care, the US health care system did not perform as well as other high-income countries, scoring 88.7 out of 100 on the 2016 age-standardized Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) index. Objective To compare US age-specific HAQ scores with those of high-income...

Aims: We aimed to characterize and illustrate the regional and state-level change in type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence in Mexico between 1990 and 2017. Methods: We conducted an ecological and secondary analysis using data from the Global Burden of Disease study on T2D prevalence of the adult Mexican population. We estimated the absolute increase...

This is a supplementary material for the article entitled "Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019"

We aimed to estimate vaccination coverage and factors associated in completing schemes in children under 5 years old between 2000 and 2018. A secondary analysis was carried out on five national health surveys between 2000 and 2018 in Mexico. The sample was 53,898 children under 5 years old, where 30% of missing vaccination information was imputed u...

Objective: To describe the temporal and geographical patterns of the continuum of maternal health care in Mexico, as well as the sociodemographic characteristics that affect the likelihood of receiving this care. Methods: We conducted a pooled cross-sectional analysis using the 1997, 2009, 2014 and 2018 waves of the National Survey of Demographi...

We use COVID-19 case and mortality data from 1 February 2020 to 21 September 2020 and a deterministic SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered) compartmental framework to model possible trajectories of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the Unite...

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-01181-w

BACKGROUND Social distancing mandates (SDM) have reduced health impacts from COVID-19 but also resulted in economic downturns that have led many nations to relax SDM. Until deployment of an efficacious and equitable vaccine, intervention options to reduce COVID-19 mortality and minimize restrictive SDM are sought by society. METHODS A susceptible-...

Background The sustainable development goals (SDGs) have generated momentum for global health, aligning efforts from governments and international organisations toward a set of goals that are expected to reflect improvements in life conditions across the globe. Mexico has huge social inequalities that can affect access to quality care and health ou...

Objective. To investigate the magnitude and distribution of the main causes of death, disability, and risk factors in Haiti. Methods. We conducted an ecological analysis, using data estimated from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 for the period 1990-2017, to present life expectancy (LE), healthy life expectancy (HALE) at under 1-year-old, ca...

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's...

Background: Measuring the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) has been the key to verifying the evolution of health indicators worldwide. We analyse subnational GBD data for Brazil in order to monitor the performance of the Brazilian states in the last 28 years on their progress towards meeting the health-related SDGs. Methods: As part of the GBD stu...

Background Understanding potential patterns in future population levels is crucial for anticipating and planning for changing age structures, resource and health-care needs, and environmental and economic landscapes. Future fertility patterns are a key input to estimation of future population size, but they are surrounded by substantial uncertainty...

Background To date, the burden of injury in Mexico has not been comprehensively assessed using recent advances in population health research, including those in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017). Methods We used GBD 2017 for burden of unintentional injury estimates, including transport injuries, for Mexico and each state in Mexico...

Background: Sepsis is life-threatening organ dysfunction due to a dysregulated host response to infection. It is considered a major cause of health loss, but data for the global burden of sepsis are limited. As a syndrome caused by underlying infection, sepsis is not part of standard Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD...

This appendix formed part of the original submission and has been peer reviewed. Supplement to: GBD 2017 SDG Collaborators. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. L...

Background: Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortal...

Background. According to the last Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2017), liver cirrhosis was the 4th leading cause of death in Mexico, positioning this country 30th globally in terms of liver cirrhosis mortality. Objective. The primary objective is to provide a systematic overview of liver cirrhosis mortality for the 32 states of Mexico by age...

Background Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-leve...

Summary Background Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond natio...

Background Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-leve...

Summary Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond nati...

Background Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-leve...

Background Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. Past work on forecasting has provided an incomplete landscape of future health scenarios, highlighting a need for a more robust modelling platform from which policy options and potential health traje...

Resumen Las lesiones en los adultos de edades medias y avan-zadas empiezan a ser reconocidas como un tema prioritario desde la perspectiva de la salud pública, los derechos humanos y del desarrollo humano. En Méxi-co es un problema cada vez más relevante debido al progresivo envejecimiento poblacional y a la compleji-dad del fenómeno. El objetivo d...

Background: Political, economic, and epidemiological changes in Brazil have affected health and the health system. We used the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 (GBD 2016) results to understand changing health patterns and inform policy responses. Methods: We analysed GBD 2016 estimates for life expectancy at birth (LE), healthy life expectanc...

Background: A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and R...