Rachel Warren

University of East Anglia | UEA · Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and School of Environmental Sciences

We present the results from a new framework providing an assessment of how climate change risks to natural capital accrue with warming of 1.5–4 °C in six countries (China, Brazil, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, and India). Unlike typical biodiversity and climate change studies, this assessment also considers landcover and population changes across a range...

Countries have set targets for conserving natural areas to mitigate biodiversity loss, such as the protection of 30% of lands by 2030, commonly referred to as “30 by 30”. Yet strategic conservation planning to align those targets with climate‐change refugia is lacking. We investigated the feasibility of achieving 30 by 30 in North America by assess...

We quantify the projected impacts of alternative levels of global warming upon the probability and length of severe drought in six countries (China, Brazil, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana and India). This includes an examination of different land cover classes, and a calculation of the proportion of population in 2100 (SSP2) at exposed to severe drought la...

The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global warming to ‘well below 2 °C’ and to ‘pursue efforts’ to limit it to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify global and regional risk-related metrics associated with these levels of warming that capture climate change–related changes in exposure to water scarcity and heat stress, vector-borne dise...

We project climate change induced changes in fluvial flood risks for six global warming levels between 1.5 and 4 °C by 2100, focusing on the major river basins of six countries. Daily time series of precipitation, temperature and monthly potential evapotranspiration were generated by combining monthly observations, daily reanalysis data and project...

Climate change is projected to have significant effects on the distribution of species globally, but research into the implications in parts of Africa has been limited. Using species distribution modelling, this study models climate change-related risks to the terrestrial biodiversity (birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians and plants) of Kenya’s eco...

Sea levels will rise, even with stringent climate change mitigation. Mitigation will slow the rate of rise. There is limited knowledge on how the costs of coastal protection vary with alternative global warming levels of 1.5 to 4.0 °C. Analysing six sea-level rise scenarios (0.74 to 1.09 m, 50th percentile) across these warming levels, and five Sha...

The potential impact of climate change on agriculture has been one of the most discussed topics in the literature on climate change. Although the possible impacts of climate change on crop yields have been widely studied, there remains little quantitative understanding of the heterogeneous economic responses to climate-induced crop yield changes in...

Floods are among the most frequent and costliest natural hazards. Fluvial flood losses are expected to increase in the future, driven by population and economic growth in flood-prone areas, and exacerbated in many regions by effects of climate change on the hydrological cycle. Yet, studies assessing direct and indirect economic impacts of fluvial f...

The earth's climate has a profound influence on the earth's ecosystems and biodiversity. Climate change is already resulting in changes in terrestrial species distributions and phenology. It is also increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, and increases in floods, heatwaves, drought, and fire are also affecting ecosystems....

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports provide policy-relevant insights about climate impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation through a process of peer-reviewed literature assessments underpinned by expert judgement. An iconic output from these assessments is the burning embers diagram, first used in the Third Assessment Repor...

West African rainfed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Global warming is projected to result in higher regional warming and have a strong impact on agriculture. This study specifically examines the impact of global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5°, 2° and 3 °C relative to 1971–2000 on crop suitability over West Africa...

The need to stabilize global climate Climate change will be the greatest threat to humanity and global ecosystems in the coming years, and there is a pressing need to understand and communicate the impacts of warming, across the perspectives of the natural and social sciences. Hoegh-Guldberg et al. review the climate change–impact literature, expan...

A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kin...

We applied a recently developed tool to examine the reduction in climate risk to biodiversity in moving from a 2°C to a 1.5°C target. We then reviewed the recent literature examining the impact of (a) land-based mitigation options and (b) land-based greenhouse gas removal options on biodiversity. We show that holding warming to 1.5°C versus 2°C can...

Manmade climate change is real, it’s happening now, and it’s among the greatest challenges we face on planet Earth. The research looks at the projected impacts of a range of warming scenarios on different species groups in 35 ‘Priority Places’ for conservation. These regions contain some of the richest and most remarkable biodiversity on the planet...

Although the number of studies discerning the impact of climate change on ecological systems continues to increase, there has been relatively little sharing of the lessons learnt when accumulating this evidence. At a recent workshop entitled ‘Using climate data in ecological research’ held at the UK Met Office, ecologists and climate scientists cam...

The reasons for concern framework communicates scientific understanding about risks in relation to varying levels of climate change. The framework, now a cornerstone of the IPCC assessments, aggregates global risks into five categories as a function of global mean temperature change. We review the framework's conceptual basis and the risk judgments...

There is growing recognition as to the importance of extreme climatic events (ECEs) in determining changes in species populations. In fact, it is often the extent of climate variability that determines a population's ability to persist at a given site. This study examined the impact of ECEs on the resident UK butterfly species ( n = 41) over a 37‐y...

Climate change has significant implications for biodiversity and ecosystems. With slow progress towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions, climate engineering (or ‘geoengineering’) is receiving increasing attention for its potential to limit anthropogenic climate change and its damaging effects. Proposed techniques, such as ocean fertilization for...

We use the flexible model coupling technology known as the bespoke framework generator to link established existing modules representing dynamics in the global economy (GEMINI_E3), the energy system (TIAM-WORLD), the global and regional climate system (MAGICC6, PLASIM-ENTS and ClimGEN), the agricultural system, the hydrological system and ecosystem...

Ambitious response needed on climate front Letter to the Times – 16 th Dec 2015 Sir, The agreement reached in Paris shows there is now impressive global ambition to tackle climate change – with tough challenges ahead (Britain facing steeper emissions cuts; Dec 14). Further policy action is urgently required to transform ambition into reality. Unfor...

Advances in computing power and infrastructure, increases in the number and size of ecological and environmental datasets, and the number and type of data collection methods, are revolutionizing the field of Ecology. To integrate these advances, virtual laboratories offer a unique tool to facilitate, expedite, and accelerate research into the impac...

This chapter assesses climate-related risks in the context of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). {Box 19.1} Such risks arise from the interaction of the evolving exposure and vulnerability of human, socioeconomic, and biological systems with changing physical characteristics of the climate system. {19.2...

Cost–benefit analysis and risk assessment approaches inform global climate change mitigation policy-making processes. Now, a development in the former shows that optimal carbon tax levels have previously been underestimated by a factor of two.

Over-exploitation and economic underperformance are widespread in the world's fisheries. Global climate change is further affecting the distribution of marine species, raising concern for the persistence of biodiversity and presenting additional challenges to fisheries management. However, few studies have attempted to extend bioclimatic projection...

Human interference with the climate system is occurring. [WGI AR5 2.2, 6.3, 10.3-6, 10.9] Climate change poses risks for human and natural systems (Figure TS.1). The assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5) evaluates how patterns of risks and potential...

Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impa...

Climate has varied on geological timescales, and ecological systems have responded. Atmospheric CO2 has increased 36% and methane ∼160% since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (∼1750), resulting in the globe warming ∼0.85 °C. Species are responding by rearranging their ranges. The increase of atmospheric CO2 is causing oceans to become mor...

This modelling study demonstrates at what level of global mean temperature rise (ΔTg) regions will be exposed to significant decreases of freshwater availability and changes to terrestrial ecosystems. Projections are based on a new, consistent set of 152 climate scenarios (eight ΔTg trajectories reaching 1.5–5 ° C above pre-industrial levels by 210...

The inherent complexity of the environment is such that attempts to model it must operate under simplifications and assumptions. Considering predictions from alternative models, with a range of assumptions and data requirements, therefore provides a more robust approach. The intractability and uncertainty resulting from a suite of predictions may h...

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other h...

Difference in overlap between species. Difference in range overlap, (Schoener's D) as a percentage of the 1985 overlap value, between commercial species and a) Dipturus batis b) Squatina squatina. Thick bars represent median values, the upper and lower ends of the box the upper and lower quartiles of the data, and the whiskers the most extreme data...

Differences in habitat suitability for threatened species in Hatton Bank. Difference in habitat suitability for the each of the six SDM/GCM combinations. Difference (2050 – 1985 values) in relative habitat suitability was calculated following standardization across all cSACs for each species and model. (TIF)

Differences in habitat suitability for threatened species in Rockall. Difference in habitat suitability for the each of the six SDM/GCM combinations. Difference (2050 – 1985 values) in relative habitat suitability was calculated following standardization across all cSACs for each species and model. (TIF)

Supplementary Methods. (DOCX)

Median difference in range overlap, (Schoener's D) as a percentage of the 1985 overlap value, between threatened and commercial species. Minimum, maximum and average overlap values are given for threatened species and average and overall median overlap values for commercial species. (PDF)

Shifts in latitudinal centroid for threatened and commercial species. Projected change (in km) in latitudinal centroid from 1985 to 2050 using each of the six SDM and climatic dataset combinations, for both threatened species and commercial species. Thick bars represent median values, the upper and lower ends of the box the upper and lower quartile...

Differences in habitat suitability for threatened species in the Dogger Bank. Difference in habitat suitability for the each of the six SDM/GCM combinations. Difference (2050 – 1985 values) in relative habitat suitability was calculated following standardization across all cSACs for each species and model. (TIF)

Habitat Suitability values in 2000 and differences (2050 – 2000) for D. batis in all cSACs for each SDM/GCM combination. (PDF)

The Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS) is a type of Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) developed at the University of East Anglia to analyse the linkages between the earths climate system, the impacts of climate change in various sectors, and the global economy. The scientific objectives of IAMs are significantly different from ESMs , and...

The country reports were written by a range of climate researchers, chosen for their subject expertise, who were drawn from institutes across the UK. Authors from the Met Office and the University of Nottingham collated the contributions in to a coherent narrative which was then reviewed. The authors and contributors of the reports are as above.

The country reports were written by a range of climate researchers, chosen for their subject expertise, who were drawn from institutes across the UK. Authors from the Met Office and the University of Nottingham collated the contributions in to a coherent narrative which was then reviewed. The authors and contributors of the reports are as above.

The UK's eight proposed new nuclear power stations are all to be sited on the coast. With a total cradle-to-grave life cycle of at least 160 years, and heightened awareness of inundation risk following the failure of the Fukushima I nuclear plant in Japan this year Britain's nuclear developers have to show how they plan to cope with the possibility...

This article presents a review of recent developments in studies assessing the global-scale impacts of climate change published since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Literature covering six main impact sectors is reviewed: sea-level rise (SLR) and coastal impacts, ocean acidification, ecosystems...

This article reviews some of the major lines of recent scientific progress relevant to the choice of global climate policy targets, focusing on changes in understanding since publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4). Developments are highlighted in the following major climate system components...

The papers in this volume discuss projections of climate change impacts upon humans and ecosystems under a global mean temperature rise of 4°C above preindustrial levels. Like most studies, they are mainly single-sector or single-region-based assessments. Even the multi-sector or multi-region approaches generally consider impacts in sectors and reg...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-change/policy-relevant/obs-projections-impacts

The UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) are a new set of projections providing a much-improved dataset for assessment of adaptation options by UK stakeholders and planners. The centrepiece consists of probabilistic projections of changes in response to three separate non-mitigation emissions scenarios (``high'', ``medium'' and ``low'', defined by SRES...

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are regularly used to evaluate different policies of future emissions reductions. Since the global costs associated with these policies are immense, it is vital that the uncertainties in IAMs are quantified and understood. We first demonstrate the significant spread in the climate system and carbon cycle componen...

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have commonly been used to understand the relationship between the economy, the earth’s climate system and climate impacts. We compare the IPCC simulations of CO2 concentration, radiative forcing, and global mean temperature changes associated with five SRES ‘marker’ emissions scenarios with the responses of thre...

In a meta-analysis we integrate peer-reviewed studies that provide quantified estimates of future projected ecosystem changes related to quantified projected local or global climate changes. In an advance on previous analyses, we reference all studies to a common pre-industrial base-line for temperature, employing up-scaling techniques where necess...

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article is a response to the articles in the previous issue of World Economics by Carter et al. and Byatt et al., which criticized the Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change’s assessment of the potential impacts of climate change. The authors demonstrate that the Stern Review does not underestimate the extent of uncertainty, and doe...

This paper reports how endogenous economic growth and technological change have been introduced into a global econometric model. It explains how further technological change might be induced by mitigation policies so as to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and stabilize atmospheric concentrations. These are the first results of a structural econometr...

OVERVIEW Most research to date has considered trans-boundary atmospheric pollution and climate change separately, even though they share many common drivers and methods of mitigation. There is a particular dearth of work in the UK on these linkages. Such work is important because (i) synergies and pitfalls in policy terms may be identified, and (ii...

,Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR2 3TT, UK.,Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK.,Ministry of the Environment, SE-103 33 Stockholm, Sweden.,Cambridge Econometrics, Covent Garden, Cambridge CB1 2HS, UK 5 Tyndall Centre (North), School of Mechanical Engineering, Pariser Building H3,...

Understanding what constitutes dangerous climate change is of critical importance for future concerted action (Schneider, 2001, 2002). To date separate scientific and policy discourses have proceeded with competing and somewhat arbitrary definitions of danger based on a variety of assumptions and assessments generally undertaken by `experts'. We ar...