Rachel Taylor

Rachel Taylor
Animal and Plant Health Agency · Department of Epidemiology

PhD Mathematical Biology

About

37
Publications
5,852
Reads
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435
Citations
Citations since 2016
33 Research Items
417 Citations
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2016201720182019202020212022020406080100
2016201720182019202020212022020406080100

Publications

Publications (37)
Article
Full-text available
Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC), widespread pathogens associated with severe foodborne disease, can contaminate milk during the milking process through faecal matter and survive or grow during cheese making if a pasteurization treatment has not been applied. Thus, a stochastic “farm-to-fork” model was developed to assess the risk of human infe...
Article
Full-text available
Risk ranking tools to prioritise the impact of exotic animal diseases in a country or area are useful to assist risk managers in optimising the allocation of available resources for the prevention and control of infectious diseases. Although several such tools have already been developed, few focus on the probability of entry of an exotic pathogen...
Article
Full-text available
One-Health risk assessments are integral to developing efficient responses to disease threats, including global pandemics. However, short timeframes, inadequate disease-specific information and an insufficient skill-base make it hard for inexperienced assessors to distinguish between a large portfolio of approaches. The wrong choice can detract fro...
Preprint
Full-text available
Coupled dynamical systems in ecology are known to respond to the seasonal forcing of their parameters with multiple dynamical behaviours, ranging from seasonal cycles to chaos. Seasonal forcing is predominantly modelled as a sine wave but the transition between seasons is often more sudden. Some studies mentioned the robustness of their results to...
Article
Full-text available
The EUropean FOod Risk Assessment (EU-FORA) Fellowship work programme 'Livestock Health and Food Chain Risk Assessment', funded by EFSA was proposed by the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), UK. A scientist with a PhD in Food Science was selected to work within the Biomathematics and Risk Research group, under the guidance of a senior risk asse...
Preprint
Full-text available
International travel poses substantial risks for continued introduction of SARS-CoV-2. As of the 17th August 2020, travellers from 12 of the top 25 countries flying into the UK are required to self-isolate for 14 days. We estimate that 895 (CI: 834-958) infectious travellers arrive in a single week, of which 87% (779, CI: 722-837) originate from co...
Preprint
Full-text available
Since the identification of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in China in December 2019, there have been more than 17 million cases of the disease in 216 countries worldwide. Comparisons of prevalence estimates between different communities can inform policy decisions regardin...
Article
An ongoing, continually spreading, outbreak of African swine fever (ASF), following its identification in Georgia in 2007, has resulted in 17 European and 12 Asian countries reporting cases by April 2020, with cases occurring in both wild boar and domestic pigs. Curtailing further spread of ASF requires understanding of the transmission pathways of...
Article
Full-text available
In recent years, several generic risk assessment (RA) tools have been developed that can be applied to assess the incursion risk of multiple infectious animal diseases allowing for a rapid response to a variety of newly emerging or re-emerging diseases. Although these tools were originally developed for different purposes, they can be used to answe...
Article
Full-text available
Following an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) in a poultry house, control measures are put in place to prevent further spread. An essential part of the control measures based on the European Commission Avian Influenza Directive 2005/94/EC is the cleansing and disinfection (C&D) of infected premises. Cleansing and disinfec...
Article
Coupled dynamical systems in ecology are known to respond to the seasonal forcing of their parameters with multiple dynamical behaviours, ranging from seasonal cycles to chaos. Seasonal forcing is predominantly modelled as a sine wave. However, the transition between seasons is often more sudden as illustrated by the effect of snow cover on predati...
Article
Full-text available
African swine fever (ASF) is currently spreading westwards throughout Europe and eastwards into China, with cases occurring in both wild boar and domestic pigs. A generic risk assessment framework is used to determine the probability of first infection with ASF virus (ASFV) at a fine spatial scale across European Union Member States. The framework...
Article
Full-text available
Background: The lack of a continuous long-term in vitro culture system for Plasmodium vivax severely limits our knowledge of pathophysiology of the most widespread malaria parasite. To gain direct understanding of P. vivax human infections, we used Next Generation Sequencing data mining to unravel parasite in vivo expression profiles for P. vivax,...
Article
Full-text available
The objective of the G-RAID project was the mutual exchange of knowledge between the consortium members on the development of generic risk assessment (RA) tools for animal disease incursion. Seven generic RA tools were compared considering objectives, inputs, algorithms and outputs. All tools were designed for rapid risk assessment and could assess...
Article
Full-text available
Abstract This Technical Report describes the activities developed in the scope of the EU‐FORA Fellowship, within the work programme of risk assessment (RA) of exotic disease incursion and spread, developed at Wageningen Bioveterinary Research (WBVR). The programme focused on the work carried out in the Generic risk assessment for introduction of an...
Preprint
Full-text available
African swine fever (ASF) has been causing multiple outbreaks in Russia, Poland and the Baltic countries in recent years and is currently spreading westwards throughout Europe and eastwards into China, with cases occurring in wild boar and domestic pigs. Curtailing further spread of ASF requires full understanding of the transmission pathways of th...
Preprint
Full-text available
Predicting where crop pests and diseases can occur, both now and in the future under different climate change scenarios, is a major challenge for crop management. One solution is to estimate the fundamental thermal niche of the pest/disease to indicate where establishment is possible. Here we develop methods for estimating and displaying the fundam...
Article
Disease incursion and transmission modelling can play an important role in elucidating important pathways and dynamics of transboundary diseases. It is an important pre-requisite for preparedness and rapid response. A model framework has been developed which makes use of global datasets to predict the probability of entry of exotic animal pathogens...
Article
Modelling the range of prominent vectors of pathogens is a common technique used for planning surveys, building exposure assessment estimations or addressing the impact of future climate scenarios. In most cases the recorded distribution of a target species is used together several environmental variables to capture its potential distribution, igno...
Article
The increase in availability of spatial data and the technological advances to handle such data allow for subsequent improvements in our ability to assess risk in a spatial setting. We provide a generic framework for quantitative risk assessments of disease introduction that capitalises on these new data. It can be adopted across multiple spatial s...
Preprint
Full-text available
The lack of a continuous in vitro culture system for Plasmodium vivax severely limits our knowledge of pathophysiology of the most widespread malaria parasite. To gain direct understanding of P. vivax human infections, we used Next Generation Sequencing data mining to unravel parasite in vivo expression profiles for P. vivax, and P. falciparum as c...
Article
Population cycling is a widespread phenomenon, observed across a multitude of taxa in both laboratory and natural conditions. Historically, the theory associated with population cycles was tightly linked to pairwise consumer-resource interactions and studied via deterministic models, but current empirical and theoretical research reveals a much ric...
Article
Huanglongbing (HLB), or citrus greening, is a global citrus disease occurring in almost all citrus growing regions. It causes substantial economic burdens to individual growers, citrus industries and governments. Successful management strategies to reduce disease burden are desperately needed but with so many possible interventions and combinations...
Data
Supplementary Article 1: Huanglongbing Model Details.
Data
Supplementary Article 2: Additional Results for the Huanglongbing Model.
Article
Full-text available
Huanglongbing, or citrus greening, is a global citrus disease occurring in almost all citrus growing regions and causing substantial economic burdens to individual growers, citrus industries and governments. Successful management strategies to reduce disease burden are desperately needed but with so many possible interventions and combinations ther...
Preprint
Full-text available
Huanglongbing, or citrus greening, is a global citrus disease occurring in almost all citrus growing regions and causing substantial economic burdens to individual growers, citrus industries and governments. Successful management strategies to reduce disease burden are desperately needed but with so many possible interventions and combinations ther...
Article
Full-text available
The establishment of protected areas or parks has become an important tool for wildlife conservation. However, frequent occurrences of human-wildlife conflict at the edges of these parks can undermine their conservation goals. Many African protected areas have experienced concurrent declines of apex predators alongside increases in both baboon abun...
Article
Seasonal forcing represents a pervasive source of environmental variability in natural systems. Whilst it is reasonably well understood in interacting populations and host-microparasite systems, it has not been studied in detail for host-macroparasite systems. In this paper we analyse the effect of seasonal forcing in a general host-macroparasite s...
Article
Seasonality is an important component in many population systems, and factors such as latitude, altitude and proximity to the coastline affect the extent of the seasonal fluctuations. In this paper, we ask how changes in seasonal fluctuations impact on the population cycles. We use the Fennoscandian vole system as a case study, focusing on variatio...
Article
Many natural systems are subject to seasonal environmental change. As a consequence many species exhibit seasonal changes in their life history parameters-such as a peak in the birth rate in spring. It is important to understand how this seasonal forcing affects the population dynamics. The main way in which seasonal models have been studied is thr...

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Projects

Project (1)
Project
Papers on primates, mostly conservation and disease.