Rachel L. Bailey

GeoSphere Austria · Conrad Observatory

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in power systems, which can lead to transformer damage over the short and the long term, are a result of space weather events and geomagnetic variations. For a long time, only high-latitude areas were considered to be at risk from these currents, but recent studies show that considerable GICs also appear in m...

Space weather events can cause geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in power transmission networks. Over the past years, these currents have been measured in multiple substations in Austria, and the measurements have been tested against a model of local GIC with the aim of producing an optimized model, which can be developed through evaluation o...

Geomagnetic storms resulting from high-speed streams can have significant negative impacts on modern infrastructure due to complex interactions between the solar wind and geomagnetic field. One measure of the extent of this effect is the Kyoto Dst index. We present a method to predict Dst from data measured at the Lagrange 5 (L5) point, which allow...

The space weather prediction is used to calculate the geoelectric field on Earth. From the geoelectric field or the magnetic field the GIC in the Austrian power grid are calculated using the plane-wave method. The effects of GIC on power transformers are investigated in our transformer lab at IEAN and with on site measurement systems, installed at...

Studying the ambient solar wind, a continuous pressure‐driven plasma flow emanating from our Sun, is an important component of space weather research. The ambient solar wind flows in interplanetary space determine how solar storms evolve through the heliosphere before reaching Earth, and especially during solar minimum are themselves a driver of ac...

Observations of magnetic clouds, within interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), are often well described by flux rope models. Most of these assume either a cylindrical or toroidal geometry. In some cases, these models are also capable of accounting for non‐axisymmetric cross‐sections but they generally all assume axial invariance. It can be...

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are one of the main drivers for space weather disturbances. In the past, different approaches have been used to automatically detect events in existing time series resulting from solar wind in situ observations. However, accurate and fast detection still remains a challenge when facing the large amount...

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are one of the main drivers for space weather disturbances. In the past, different approaches have been used to automatically detect events in existing time series resulting from solar wind in situ observations. However, accurate and fast detection still remains a challenge when facing the large amount...

Unusually high transformer sound levels triggered the GIC research in Austria. The measurements revealed DC currents highly correlated with geomagnetic field variations. There are currently 9 self developed measurement systems running in different transformer neutral points in Austria. In order to investigate the transformer behaviour under GIC bia...

Plain Language Summary Using satellites, we measure the state of the solar wind a short distance away from the Earth (at the so‐called Lagrange‐1 or L1 point) to see what is coming toward us at any given moment. Changes in the solar wind such as an increase in wind speed or a strong magnetic field can potentially impact satellite operation in orbit...

We present a new analytical approach with the aim to describe generally curved and twisted magnetic flux ropestructures, that are embedded within interplanetary coronal mass ejections, under the constraint of invariant axialflux. In this paper we showcase the simplest case of a generally curved flux rope with a circular cross-sectionwhich can be de...

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), a result of solar wind interaction with the Earth’s magnetic field and the resistive ground, are known to flow in power transmission grids, where they can lead to transformer damage and grid operation problems. In this study we present an analysis of five years of continuous GIC measurements in transformer n...

We report the result of the first search for multipoint in situ and imaging observations of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) starting with the first Solar Orbiter (SolO) data in 2020 April–2021 April. A data exploration analysis is performed including visualizations of the magnetic-field and plasma observations made by the five spacecr...

Predicting the Bz magnetic field embedded within ICMEs, also known as the Bz problem, is a key challenge in space weather forecasting. We study the hypothesis that upstream in situ measurements of the sheath region and the first few hours of the magnetic obstacle provide sufficient information for predicting the downstream Bz component. To do so,...

We report the result of the first search for multipoint in situ and imaging observations of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) starting with the first Solar Orbiter data in April 2020 to April 2021. A data exploration analysis is performed including visualizations of the magnetic field and plasma observations made by the five spacecraft...

The forecasting of local GIC effects has largely relied on the forecasting of dB/dt as a proxy and, to date, little attention has been paid to directly forecasting the geoelectric field or GICs themselves. We approach this problem with machine learning tools, specifically recurrent neural networks or LSTMs by taking solar wind observations as input...

Recent improvements in sensor and digitizer technology allows for high sampling rates even about $1$ Hz. Visual data quality checking of magnetograms therefore became very time consuming. Spectral analysis were all these fluctuations are investigated and separated by the magnitude and phase information of a signal were carried out, consisting of c...

Predicting the Bz magnetic field embedded within ICMEs, also known as the Bz problem, is a key challenge in space weather forecasting. We study the hypothesis that upstream in situ measurements of the sheath region and the first few hours of the magnetic obstacle provide sufficient information for predicting the downstream Bz component. To do so, w...

This yearbook provides an overview of geomagnetic measurements performed at the Conrad Observatory, Austria. It also contains detailed descriptions of data treatment, analytical methods, quality assessment and results. Long- and short-term variations of the geomagnetic field, e.g, secular variation and geomagnetic activity, are analysed and discuss...

Coronal holes are the observational manifestation of the solar magnetic field open to the heliosphere and are of pivotal importance for our understanding of the origin and acceleration of the solar wind. Observations from space missions such as the Solar Dynamics Observatory now allow us to study coronal holes in unprecedented detail. Instrumental...

The space weather prediction is used to calculate the geoelectric field on Earth. From the geoelectric field or the magnetic field the GIC in the Austrian power grid are calculated using the plane-wave method. The effects of GIC on power transformers are investigated in our transformer lab at IEAN and with on site measurement systems, installed at...

The recent launch of Solar Orbiter and BepiColombo opened a brief window in which these two spacecraft were positioned in a constellation that allows for the detailed sampling of any Earth-directed CMEs. Fortunately, two such events occurred with in situ detections of an ICME by Solar Orbiter on the 19th of April and the 28th of May 2020. These two...

Coronal holes are the observational manifestation of the solar magnetic field open to the heliosphere and are of pivotal importance for our understanding of the origin and acceleration of the solar wind. Observations from space missions such as the Solar Dynamics Observatory now allow us to study coronal holes in unprecedented detail. Instrumental...

Accurate forecasting of the arrival time and arrival speed of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a unsolved problem in space weather research. In this study, a comparison of the predicted arrival times and speeds for each CME based, independently, on the inputs from the two STEREO vantage points is carried out. We perform hindcasts using ELlipse Evol...

Context. On 2020 April 19 a coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in situ by Solar Orbiter at a heliocentric distance of about 0.8 AU. The CME was later observed in situ on April 20 by the Wind and BepiColombo spacecraft whilst BepiColombo was located very close to Earth. This CME presents a good opportunity for a triple radial alignment study,...

Accurate forecasting of the arrival time and arrival speed of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a unsolved problem in space weather research. In this study, a comparison of the predicted arrival times and speeds for each CME based, independently, on the inputs from the two STEREO vantage points is carried out. We perform hindcasts using ELlipse Evol...

We present a major update to the 3D coronal rope ejection (3DCORE) technique for modeling coronal mass ejection flux ropes in conjunction with an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm that is used for fitting the model to in situ magnetic field measurements. The model assumes an empirically motivated torus-like flux rope structure that e...

In this study, we evaluate a coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival prediction tool that utilizes the wide‐angle observations made by STEREO's heliospheric imagers (HI). The unsurpassable advantage of these imagers is the possibility to observe the evolution and propagation of a CME from close to the Sun out to 1 AU and beyond. We believe that by expl...

On April 19th 2020 a CME was detected in-situ by Solar Orbiter at a heliocentric distance of about 0.8 AU. The CME was later observed in-situ on April 20th by the Wind and BepiColombo spacecraft whilst BepiColombo was located very close to Earth. This CME presents a good opportunity for a triple radial alignment study, as the spacecraft were separa...

The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter missions are designed to make groundbreaking observations of the Sun and interplanetary space within this decade. We show that a particularly interesting in situ observation of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) by PSP may arise during close solar flybys (<0.1 au). During these times, the s...

The last decade has witnessed a rapid growth of the field of exoplanet discovery and characterisation. However, several big challenges remain, many of which could be addressed using machine learning methodology. For instance, the most prolific method for detecting exoplanets and inferring several of their characteristics, transit photometry, is ver...

We present a major update to the 3D coronal rope ejection (3DCORE) technique for modeling coronal mass ejection flux ropes in conjunction with an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithm that is used for fitting the model to in situ magnetic field measurements. The model assumes an empirically motivated torus-like flux rope structure that e...

In this study, we evaluate a coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival prediction tool that utilizes the wide-angle observations made by STEREO's heliospheric imagers (HI). The unsurpassable advantage of these imagers is the possibility to observe the evolution and propagation of a CME from close to the Sun out to 1 AU and beyond. We believe that by expl...

The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter missions are designed to make groundbreaking observations of the Sun and interplanetary space within this decade. We show that a particularly interesting in situ observation of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) by PSP may arise during close solar flybys ($< 0.1$ AU). During these times, th...

The study of ambient solar wind, a continuous pressure-driven plasma flow emanating from our Sun, is an important component of space weather research. The ambient solar wind flows in interplanetary space determine how solar storms evolve through the heliosphere before reaching Earth, and especially during solar minimum are themselves a driver of ac...

Magnetic results from the Conrad Observatory, 2019

Geomagnetic storms resulting from high‐speed streams can have significant negative impacts on modern infrastructure due to complex interactions between the solar wind and geomagnetic field. One measure of the extent of this effect is the Kyoto Dst index. We present a method to predict Dst from data measured at the Lagrange 5 (L5) point, which allow...

The ambient solar wind flows and fields influence the complex propagation dynamics of coronal mass ejections in the interplanetary medium and play an essential role in shaping Earth's space weather environment. A critical scientific goal in the space weather research and prediction community is to develop, implement and optimize numerical models fo...

The ambient solar wind flows and fields influence the complex propagation dynamics of coronal mass ejections in the interplanetary medium and play an essential role in shaping Earth's space weather environment. A critical scientific goal in the space weather research and prediction community is to develop, implement and optimize numerical models fo...

Leitfähige geerdete elektrische Energieübertragungsnetze bieten einen niederohmigen Pfad für im Boden induzierte Ströme. Regionen in hohen Breitengraden oder solche mit geringer Erdleitfähigkeit sind besonders von geomagnetisch induzierten Strömen (GICs) betroffen, die durch Weltraumwetterereignisse verursacht werden können. Induzierte Ströme könne...

The current and future research related to speace weather and geomagnetically induced currents in Austria.

Conductive grounded electrical power transmission networks offer a low resistance path for currents induced in the ground. High latitude regions or those with low earth conductivity are especially affected by geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), which are caused by space weather events. Induced currents can cause damages of assets or system out...

Das Auftreten von Gleichströmen ist ein bekanntes Phänomen in Wechselspannungsnetzen, tritt jedoch in Übertra-gungsnetzen sehr selten auf. Diese Gleichströme bzw. extrem niederfrequenten Wechselströme, welche unter anderem aus der geomagnetischen Feldvariation resultieren können(geomagnetisch induzierte Ströme, GIC), sind in den nordi-schen Ländern...

Automated detection of geomagnetic storms is of growing importance to operators of technical infrastructure (e.g., power grids, satellites), which is susceptible to damage caused by the consequences of geomagnetic storms. In this study, we compare three methods for automated geomagnetic storm detection: a method analyzing the first derivative of th...

Transmission system operators are responsible for secure and reliable operation of their grids. An important topic is the analysis of possible risks for the transmission system network and the system equipment.

Mineral clouds in substellar atmospheres play a special role as a catalyst for a variety of charge processes. If clouds are charged, the surrounding environment becomes electrically activated, and ensembles of charged grains are electrically discharging (e.g., by lightning), which significantly influences the local chemistry creating conditions sim...

Sparkling Geomagnetic Field Project: Space Weather Observations together with Schools