R. Karl Hanson

Carleton University · Department of Psychology

Objective: Risk assessment is essential to effective correctional practice. For individuals with contact sexual offenses, many risk tools are available. There are fewer options, however, for individuals whose sexual offending exclusively involves child sexual exploitation materials (CSEM; legally referred to in Canada and the United States as chil...

Risk tools containing dynamic (potentially changeable) factors are routinely used to evaluate the recidivism risk of justice-involved individuals. Although frequent reassessments are recommended, there is little research on how the predictive accuracy of dynamic risk assessments changes over time. This study examined the extent to which predictive...

The accuracy of risk assessment tools for Asian populations has received relatively little research attention. This study evaluated one of the most widely used static risk assessment tools - Static-99R - for assessing the likelihood of recidivism among men convicted of a sexual crime in South Korea. Overall, this South Korean sample ( N = 8207) app...

Preventive detention provisions in the US and Canada assume we can identify, in advance, individuals at high risk for sexual recidivism. To test this assumption, 377 adult males with a history of sexual offending were followed for 20 years using Canadian national criminal history records and Internet searches. Using previously collected information...

A Five-Level Risk and Needs system has been proposed as a common language for standardizing the meaning of risk levels across risk/need tools used in corrections. Study 1 examined whether the Five-Levels could be applied to BARR-2002R (N = 2,390), an actuarial tool for general recidivism. Study 2 examined the construct validity of BARR-2002R risk l...

Assessment of risk of sexual recidivism has progressed from tools containing only static factors to tools including dynamic (i.e., changeable) risk factors. The psychometric properties and factor structure of one such scale, the Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS) were explored. Seven hundred and thirty-one men assigned...

This study examined whether pedophilia is best understood as a dimension or a discrete class (taxon). We considered pedophilia to include both physical sexual attraction to children as well as emotional attraction to children and childhood. Archival data from 901 adult males from a U.S. civil commitment treatment center for sexually dangerous perso...

Risk assessments serve multiple functions in corrections and forensic mental health. They inform decisions concerning the severity of sanctions, community services, supervision, the need for special public protection measures (e.g., sexual offender registries), and intensity and nature of treatment. For policy makers, risk assessments can assist wi...

A Five-Level Risk and Needs system has been proposed as a common language for standardizing the meaning of risk levels across risk/need tools used in corrections. Study 1 examined whether the Five-Levels could be applied to BARR-2002R (N = 2,390), an actuarial tool for general recidivism. Study 2 examined the construct validity of BARR-2002R risk l...

Objective: The purpose of this study was to develop new 10-year recidivism rate norms as well as to update 5-year norms for the Static-99R risk tool for routine/complete samples. We also present the extrapolated sexual recidivism rates from these new 10-year norms for follow-up periods of 11 to 20 years. Hypotheses: We hypothesized that absolute-r...

Many forensic assessment measures are developed and validated under research conditions but applied in the field, where professionals or paraprofessionals have varied training, unknown fidelity to administration procedures, and contextual pressures related to their institutions or legal system. Yet few studies examine the generalizability of psycho...

This prospective study examined the predictive validity of the Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS; McGrath et al., 2012), a sexual recidivism risk/need tool designed to identify dynamic (changeable) risk factors relevant to supervision and treatment. The SOTIPS risk tool was scored by probation officers at two sites ( n...

Objectives: Few studies have examined how much individuals change on intermediate targets of risk to reoffend. Even fewer studies have examined the extent to which change on such measures predict reoffending. Establishing the validity of intermediate measures requires a multistep approach that (a) assesses the reliability of the change, (b) assess...

This paper presents a model of vindictive rape based on common mechanisms for maintaining cooperation among humans, namely altruistic (or costly) punishment, sex role expectations, and retributive (“eye for an eye”) justice. Vindictive rapes are characterized by high level of victim harm without explicit sadistic sexual interests. They are also dis...

A dynamic risk factor is a variable that can change across time, and as it changes, there is a corresponding change in the likelihood of the outcome. In corrections, there is evidence for dynamic risk factors when relatively more proximal reassessments enhance predictive validity for recidivism. In this article, we tested the proximity hypothesis w...

STABLE-2007 is a measure of risk-relevant propensities for adult males convicted of a sexual offense. This meta-analysis evaluated the ability of STABLE-2007 and its items to discriminate between recidivists and nonrecidivists, and the extent to which STABLE-2007 improves prediction over and above Static-99R. Based on 21 studies (12 unique samples,...

Although individuals with a history of sexual crime are often viewed as a lifelong risk, recent research has drawn attention to consistent declines in recidivism risk for those who remain offense free in the community. Because these declines are predictable, this article demonstrates how evaluators can use the amount of time individuals have remain...

In Canada, the issue of cultural bias in risk assessment tools is an ongoing concern, particularly for Indigenous peoples who are overrepresented in the criminal justice system. To date, there has been relatively little research on structured risk assessment tools for Indigenous peoples. This study examined the predictive accuracy of two sexual rec...

There has been little research on the sexual offending behavior of different racial groups. This study compares the characteristics and risk factors for American, non-Hispanic Whites ( n =797) and Blacks ( n = 788) who had been convicted of a sexual crime in New Jersey. The results indicated that Whites appeared more paraphilic whereas Blacks displ...

This report presents the findings from a 5-year study of the implementation of the Sex Offender Treatment Implementation and Progress Scale (SOTIPS). Included are psychometric properties, factor structure, and indications of predictive validity. Additionally, the report includes a qualitative evaluation of the implementation process, including diff...

A criminal history record is a valid indicator of the propensity for rule violation, and such records are rightly used in applied decision making both within and outside of the criminal justice system (e.g., employment screening). A criminal conviction, however, is a time dependent risk factor. During the past decade, researchers have examined desi...

Developed with the goal of preventing recidivism, contemporary sex offender supervision models focus on collaboration between probation officers and therapists. This exploratory study used focus groups to examine the working relationships between probation officers and therapists from two large U.S. urban probation departments. Overall, both probat...

Although there is considerable research on Caucasian sexual offenders, there has been much less research on sex offenders of Asian heritage. The current study compared East Asian (e.g., Chinese, Japanese, and Korean) sex offenders in British Columbia (B.C.), Canada, and other B.C. sex offenders on items and total score of Static-99R. This study inc...

The original version of this article unfortunately contained an error. The Appendix table was incorrectly formatted and entries were misaligned. The correct table is now given in this article.

We report a case study of Atypical Offender (AO), a man who was civilly committed as a sexually violent person several years after his 90th birthday. In this article, we review the factors that usually contribute to virtually zero rates of sexual crime among nonagenarians for clues as to why these protective factors did not apply to this exceptiona...

The dominant Canadian approach to offender rehabilitation, the risk-needresponsivity (RNR) model, requires assessing offenders' likelihood of recidivism and their criminogenic needs (i.e., risk/need assessments). The current study examines the risk/need assessments routinely used in Canadian corrections and compares their risk category labels. All...

Whereas there is a common assumption that most individuals with a criminal record can be eventually reintegrated into the community, the public has different expectations for sexual offenders. In many countries, individuals with a history of sexual offenses are subject to a wide range of long-term restrictions on housing and employment, as well as...

Although considerable research has found overall moderate predictive validity of Static-99R, a sex offender risk prediction tool, relatively little research has addressed its potential for cultural bias. This prospective study evaluated the predictive validity of Static-99R across the three major ethnic groups (White, n = 789; Black, n = 466; Hispa...

This document is a technical and interpretative manual for evaluators using STABLE-2007. This version updates and replaces the October 21, 2013 STABLE-2007 Evaluators’ Workbook (Helmus & Hanson, 2013) and all other previous versions.STABLE-2007 is a measure of risk factors relevant for the treatment and supervision of adult males charged or convict...

The most commonly used risk assessment tools for predicting sexual violence focus almost exclusively on static, historical factors. Consequently, they are assumed to be unable to directly inform the selection of treatment targets, or evaluate change. However, researchers using latent variable models have identified three dimensions in static actuar...

Assessing the predictive accuracy of actuarial risk assessment tools requires consideration of discrimination (the differences between recidivists and nonrecidivists) and calibration (the credibility of the recidivism rates associated with test scores or categories). Currently, there are no conventions for reporting calibration effect sizes for off...

Since 2009, the Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA) has supported the National Reentry Resource Center (NRRC) to serve as the primary source of information and guidance in reentry, advancing the use of evidence-based practices and policies and creating a network of practitioners, researchers, and policymakers invested in reducing recidivism. This wh...

This is the 2016 revision of the coding rules for Static-99R. It is available on the saarna.org website

This article describes principles for developing risk category labels for criterion referenced prediction measures, and demonstrates their utility by creating new risk categories for the Static-99R and Static-2002R sexual offender risk assessment tools. Currently, risk assessments in corrections and forensic mental health are typically summarized i...

Sexual offenders are more likely to have a history of psychiatric hospitalization compared with the general population. This finding suggests that a history of psychiatric hospitalization is a plausible risk factor for the initiation of sexual crimes. It is less clear, however, whether psychiatric hospitalization is associated with risk factors for...

Nominal risk categories for actuarial risk assessment information should be grounded in non-arbitrary, evidence-based criteria. The current study presents numeric indicators for interpreting one such tool, the Risk Matrix 2000, which is widely used to assess the recidivism risk of sexual offenders. Percentiles, risk ratios, and 5-year recidivism ra...

The overrepresentation of Indigenous offenders in the Canadian criminal justice system highlights the need for research on the applicability of risk assessment for this group. Given that most decisions throughout an offender’s progression through the criminal justice system are guided by the outcomes of risk assessment, it is essential that risk as...

The most commonly used risk assessment tools for predicting sexual violence focus almost exclusively on static, historical factors (e.g., characteristics of prior offences). Consequently, they are assumed to be unable to directly inform the selection of treatment targets or evaluate change. In this article, we argue that this limitation can be miti...

Most replication studies of actuarial risk scales for sex offenders focus on relative predictive accuracy (e.g., ROC), with little attention paid to the stability of absolute recidivism estimates. This chapter discusses sexual recidivism base rates and factors that may affect recidivism rates, with a particular focus on factors external to actuaria...

Emotional congruence with children is a psychologically meaningful risk factor for sexual offending against children. The present study examines the correlates of emotional congruence with children in a sample of 424 adult male sexual offenders who started a period of community supervision in Canada, Alaska, and Iowa between 2001 and 2005. Consiste...

In North America, the evaluation of criminal recidivism risk relies heavily on actuarial risk tools, that is, scales composed of factors empirically associated with recidivism. The tools most commonly used with sexual offenders, Static-99R and Static-2002R, contain exclusively static risk factors—case history variables that cannot be changed throug...

Effective intervention with offenders requires accurate identification of their risk-relevant propensities. In this prospective study, 139 Canadian community supervision officers were trained to assess the risk factors and criminogenic needs of adult male sexual offenders using structured risk tools. Recidivism outcomes were recorded for 768 offend...

Empirical actuarial risk tools are routinely used to assess the recidivism risk of adult sexual offenders. Compared to other forms of risk assessment, one advantage of actuarial risk tools is that they provide recidivism rate estimates. Previous research, however, suggests that there is considerable variability in the recidivism rates associated wi...

Given that sexual offenders are more likely to reoffend with a nonsexual offense than a sexual offense, it is useful to have risk scales that predict general recidivism among sexual offenders. In the current study, we examined the extent to which two commonly used risk scales for sexual offenders (Static-99R and Static-2002R) predict violent and ge...

The aim of the current study was to enhance the assessment and predictive accuracy of risk assessments for sexual offenders by utilizing detailed crime scene analysis (CSA). CSA was conducted on a sample of 247 male acquaintance rapists from Berlin (Germany) using a nonmetric, multidimensional scaling (MDS) Behavioral Thematic Analysis (BTA) approa...

Policies that differentially apply to sexual offenders at different risk levels require defensible procedures for classifying offenders into risk categories. The current study examines the reliability and validity of Static-99 and Static-99R sexual offender risk assessment tools as implemented in the State of California. California is a valuable ca...

Comprehensive risk assessment can benefit from combining static and dynamic scales. The purpose of this study was to validate the Risk Matrix 2000, examine incremental validity of the STABLE-2007 and develop structured rules for combining the two scales. In a routine sample of Canadian sex offenders (n = 710), the Risk Matrix 2000/Sex, /Violence an...

This study examined the extent to which sexual offenders present an enduring risk for sexual recidivism over a 20-year follow-up period. Using an aggregated sample of 7,740 sexual offenders from 21 samples, the yearly recidivism rates were calculated using survival analysis. Overall, the risk of sexual recidivism was highest during the first few ye...

The current meta-analysis compared the characteristics of online child pornography-only offenders, typical (offline) sex offenders against children, and offenders with both child pornography and contact sex offences against children (mixed). Based on 30 unique samples (comparison ns ranging from 98 to 2,702), the meta-analysis found key differences...

The current study used crime scene analysis (CSA) to identify the psychological characteristics of child molesters and examined the contribution of these behavioral themes for sexual offender risk assessment. CSA was conducted on a sample of 424 cases of child sexual abuse in Berlin (Germany) using non-metric Multi-Dimensional Scaling. The analysis...

The field of sexual offender treatment has drawn inspiration from two major social movements: The women's movement, which defined sexual victimisation as a serious social problem, and correctional rehabilitation, which provided the vision and methods to reintegrate offenders as law-abiding citizens. In this retrospective, I argue that we should als...

Although widely used in North America, actuarial risk assessment tools have been criticized for their inability to capture the causal dynamics leading to criminal recidivism. In this article, we present a conceptual framework for linking static, historical risk factors to the psychological vulnerabilities that are targeted in offender treatment. To...

La Statique-99R et la Statique-2002R figurent parmi les outils actuariels d'évaluation du risque des agresseurs sexuels les plus utilisés mondialement. Ces outils bénéficient d'une des meilleures validités prédictives du domaine, et se cotent aussi rapidement que simplement. Ils ne sont toutefois pas sans limites; plusieurs professionnels ont criti...

Sexual offenders vary in the risk posed to the community. Some may need intensive treatment and supervision programs to reduce their risk to an acceptable level. In other cases, the risk for recidivism is sufficiently low that it is indistinguishable from the risk of sexual crimes among general offenders with no recorded history of sexual crime. Se...

To evaluate the effectiveness of current medical and psychological interventions for individuals at risk of sexually abusing children, both in known abusers and those at risk of abusing. Systematic review of interventions designed to prevent reoffending among known abusers and prevention for individuals at risk of sexually abusing children. Randomi...

Objective To evaluate the effectiveness of current medical and psychological interventions for individuals at risk of sexually abusing children, both in known abusers and those at risk of abusing. Design Systematic review of interventions designed to prevent reoffending among known abusers and prevention for individuals at risk of sexually abusing...

Appendix 2: Supplementary tables (GRADE evidence)

Appendix 1: Search strategies, assessment of risk of bias, and the GRADE system

Appendix 3: Study evaluation protocols

This study tested 3 decision rules for combining actuarial risk instruments for sex offenders into an overall evaluation of risk. Based on a 9-year follow-up of 940 adult male sex offenders, we found that Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR), Static-99R, and Static-2002R predicted sexual, violent, and general recidivism and pr...

Evaluators wishing to assess the criminogenic needs of sexual offenders are encouraged to use a structured risk assessment procedure. Structured risk assessments are more reliable and valid than unstructured professional judgements, and are widely used with sexual offenders. This chapter focuses on STABLE-2007 and ACUTE-2007. STABLE-2007 and ACUTE-...

This article reviews the research evidence, practice guidelines and accreditation standards for the psychological treatment of individuals who commit sexually motivated crimes. Overall, the sexual offender treatment outcome research is not well developed, which limits strong conclusions. There is, however, strong research evidence concerning the ef...

Child services organisations need policies that minimise the risk of sexual abuse of the children in their care. In particular, managers (and the public) are justifiably concerned when abuse is perpetrated by individuals who should not have been working with children in the first place. Unfortunately, there has been relatively little work on determ...

Background. The Risk Matrix 2000 is a static actuarial tool designed for adult male sex offenders. It consists of three scales (Sex, Violence, and Combined) intended to assess risk for sexual, non-sexual violent, and any violent recidivism, respectively. Methods. This meta-analysis identified 16 unique samples (from 14 studies) that examined the ex...