Pilar Gargallo

Pilar Gargallo
University of Zaragoza | UNIZAR · Department of Statistical Methods

About

87
Publications
14,409
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678
Citations
Citations since 2016
25 Research Items
346 Citations
20162017201820192020202120220102030405060
20162017201820192020202120220102030405060
20162017201820192020202120220102030405060
20162017201820192020202120220102030405060

Publications

Publications (87)
Article
This paper analyses whether investing in clean energy significantly worsens the risk level of investors. To that aim, we propose a dynamic strategy to carry out a comparative risk analysis of three minimum-variance portfolios: a portfolio made up exclusively of dirty energies, a portfolio made up only of clean energy assets, and a portfolio combine...
Article
Full-text available
The identification of homogeneous groups of actors in a local AHP-multiactor context based on their preferences is an open problem, particularly when the number of decision-makers is high. To solve this problem in the case of using stochastic AHP, this paper proposes a new Bayesian stochastic search methodology for large-scale problems (number of d...
Article
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This paper analyzes the co-movements of prices of fossil fuels, energy stock markets and EU allowances. This analysis is conducted in order to identify the spillover effect of volatility and correlation among these financial markets, and to provide a scientific basis that shows the interest of incorporating sustainable assets in the design of minim...
Chapter
The expanding agri-food industry is highly interested in product and process innovation and acutely aware of climate change’s impact on the sector; however, it has still not seen an energy transformation that could lead to huge savings. These savings could come from energy efficiency and from the total or partial replacement of traditional fuels by...
Article
This article proposes a dynamic Bayesian framework to analyze the leadership relationships between mutual funds. To this end, a two‐step procedure is proposed. First, a Bayesian rolling window based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model is used to estimate the evolution of mutual funds' market exposure over time. Then, a vector autoregressive (VAR) mo...
Article
The wine sector is highly vulnerable to climate change, especially due to the dependence of vine growing on climatic and environmental conditions. For this reason, adaptation and mitigation measures are important for the future of the wine industry. However, the process of adopting these measures by companies is not sufficiently known. The objectiv...
Article
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Using the perceptions of a sample of 231 people from a Spanish region as a case study, this paper aims to respond to the increasing demand for measurement of economic, social and environmental performance of renewables implementation. First, from this information, the paper analyzes the willingness to pay of the rural community for the complete rep...
Article
Hedonic models are widely used to predict selling prices of properties. Originally, they were proposed as simple spatial regressions, i.e. a spatially referenced response regressed on spatially referenced predictors. Subsequently, spatial random effects were introduced to serve as surrogates for unmeasured or unobservable predictors and were shown...
Article
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The official development aid provided by donor countries does not solely depend on government decisions; it is also affected by trends in public opinion. This means that it is important to find out more about the opinions, views and attitudes of the citizens of donor countries. In spite of this, very few research studies have specifically analysed...
Article
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The two procedures traditionally followed for group decision making with the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) are the Aggregation of Individual Judgments (AIJ) and the Aggregation of Individual Priorities (AIP). In both cases, the geometric mean is used to synthesise judgments and individual priorities into a collective position. Unfortunately...
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The objective of this paper is to discover through a survey, the Spanish wine sector’s attitude towards incorporating renewables. To that end, the multivariate statistical technique of factor analysis is applied to the information provided by a sample of 87 wineries stratified by Spanish regions. This resulted in a set of four indicators describing...
Article
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The wine sector is very sensitive to the effects of climate change. Despite this, there is little use of renewable energy in the wine sector. In fact, the adoption of mitigation measures by companies depends on their own attitudes and interests. The objective of this work was to understand the use and disposition of Spanish wineries to incorporate...
Article
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Climate change, depletion of nonrenewable resources in the current energies, pollution from them and the greater ecological awareness of the population, are factors that suggest the change of energy sources in business. The wine industry is concerned about sustainability and with a clear awareness of what climate change may mean for it. This sector...
Article
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La relevancia del sector vitivinícola en España y su conexión con el desarrollo del entorno rural, así como la preocupación de la población por los aspectos medioambientales y sociales, justifican el creciente interés por incorporar prácticas verdes y sostenibles en el turismo del vino. Además, dentro de los enoturistas existe un segmento cada vez...
Article
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Existe evidencia de que gran parte del cambio climático es causado por las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (GHG), siendo la vitivinicultura una de las actividades responsables. El uso del combustible en la maquinaria agrícola, el empleo de fertilizantes y el consumo de energía en las bodegas, entre otros motivos, contribuyen a estas emisio...
Article
The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) was created with the aim of promoting reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective and economically efficient manner. In line with this objective, when making their decisions, policy makers should consider not only the CO2 reduction targets but also the influence of these pollution...
Article
This article presents a Bayesian method based on spatial filtering to estimate hedonic models for dwelling prices with geographically varying coefficients. A Bayesian Adaptive Sampling algorithm for variable selection is used, which makes it possible to select the most appropriate filters for each hedonic coefficient. This approach explores the mod...
Article
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The objective of this paper is to design a map of the positive effects caused by the implementation, in a winery, of a series of prototypes for substituting non-renewable energies for clean energies. For this aim, we propose the use of a multi-level approach including three analyses: a multi-stakeholder analysis to determine all the interest groups...
Article
The traditional hedonic model postulates that housing prices depend on their characteristics and their location. However, this model assumes a constant relationship between the dependent and the independent variables. This assumption is unrealistic because empirical studies have shown that the regression coefficients depend on the housing location....
Article
Customarily, for housing markets, interest focuses on selling prices of properties at locations and times. Hedonic models are employed using property-level, neighborhood-level, and economic regressors. However, in hedonic modeling the fact that the locations and times of property transactions are random is ignored. Here, we focus on explanation of...
Article
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La energía utilizada en agricultura es fuente de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Para reducir las producidas por el uso de gasóleo y electricidad, el proyecto europeo LIFE REWIND aborda el suministro desde fuentes renovables. Para ello, se ha caracterizado la demanda energética y recursos renovables en viñedo y bodega. Se ha buscado el di...
Article
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El cambio climático, el efecto invernadero, el agujero de la capa de ozono, la acidificación del suelo y el agua, el agotamiento de los recursos no renovables y la contaminación de las aguas y de los suelos son factores que han aumentado la conciencia ecológica de la población. El sector vitivinícola es uno de los mejores sensores para detectar los...
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This paper proposes some new evolutionary and classification methods for the delineation of local labor markets (LLMs) in areas where there are a large number of small localities with little labor interaction. The evolutionary methods presented here, based on previous works of Flórez-Revuelta et al. (Int J Autom Comput 5:10–21, 2008a; PPSN X, LNCS...
Article
Smoking cessation treatments are effective in men and women. However, possible sex-related differences in the outcome of these treatments remain a controversial topic. This study evaluated whether there were differences between men and women in the success of smoking cessation treatment, including gender-tailored components, in the short and long t...
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This paper proposes a new empirical procedure for measuring Corporate Social Performance in firms, taking the Carroll model and the Stakeholder theory as theoretical supports. To that aim we use a second order factor model and we adopt a Bayesian approach that allows us to carry out a more effective statistical treatment of the missing data, using...
Article
In this paper a methodology for the delineation of local labour markets (LLMs) using evolutionary algorithms is proposed. This procedure, based on that in Flórez-Revuelta et al. [1313. F. Flórez-Revuelta, J.M. Casado-Díaz, and L. Martínez-Bernabeu, An evolutionary approach to the delineation of functional areas base on travel-to-work flows, Int. J....
Article
This paper proposes a dynamic Bayesian rolling window estimation procedure applied to the three-factor model of Fama and French to analyse herding behaviour in the style exposures of mutual funds. This procedure allows a user to dynamically select the length of the estimation window by means of weighted likelihood functions that discount the loss o...
Article
In this study, we measure jointly the labour and the residential accessibility of a basic spatial unit using a Bayesian Poisson gravity model with spatial effects. The accessibility measures are broken down into two components: the attractiveness component, which is related to its socio-economic and demographic characteristics, and the impedance co...
Article
This study offers an exploratory statistical analysis of the persistence of annual abnormal returns across a sample of firms from different European Union countries. To this end, a hierarchical Bayesian dynamic model has been used that enables the annual behaviour of those profits to be broken down into a permanent structural component and a transi...
Article
The challenges of the knowledge society and the development of the information and communication technologies favour the participation of multiple, spatially distributed actors in decision making processes. In this context, Systemic Decision Making (Moreno-Jiménez et al. in Systemic decision making in AHP: a Bayesian approach, 2014) provides a new...
Article
Systemic decision making is a new approach for dealing with complex multiactor decision making problems in which the actors’ individual preferences on a fixed set of alternatives are incorporated in a holistic view in accordance with the “principle of tolerance”. The new approach integrates all the preferences, even if they are encapsulated in diff...
Article
The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is the first and largest international scheme for the trading of greenhouse gas emission allowances (European Union Allowances (EUA)). Considering that the global economic crisis is hurting corporate profits, analysing the implications of CO2 emissions constraints for company business performance...
Article
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In this work we use the commuting matrix to analyze the accessibility of the municipalities as places to reside and/or work, taking Aragon (Spain) as a case study. To that aim, a modified version of the Place Rank algorithm (El-Geneidy and Levinson, 2011) is proposed. This method uses origin-destination flows weighting these displacements by the at...
Article
This work extends the AHP-Bayesian Prioritization procedure proposed by the authors for a local context (a single criterion) to a global context (a hierarchy) and presents a taxonomy of criteria that contribute to the ranking of the alternatives. In this global context, the paper defines and characterizes: (i) the influence of a criterion in the fi...
Article
Objective: it is known that very few women who continue to smoke at the time of delivery stop smoking during the postpartum period. Discovering strategies that can be incorporated during pregnancy to help improve women's participation in postpartum interventions could increase the number of women non-smokers. The aim of this study is to identify t...
Article
The need of retrospective predictions arises in situations such as litigations, inheritances or fiscal purposes to provide the fair market value of a dwelling of given characteristics and specific location. In this paper, a Bayesian method to carry out this retrospective analysis is proposed by using a Spatio-Temporal Autoregressive (STAR) model wi...
Article
Full-text available
Objective To identify factors predictive of the outcome of a smoking cessation program by gender.MethodsA cross-sectional study of smokers starting treatment in a smoking cessation clinic from 2002 to 2007 was conducted. The variables consisted of data on sociodemographic factors, smoking habits, the social context of smoking and psychiatric comorb...
Article
As a result of increased mobility patterns of workers, explaining labor flows and partitioning regions into local labor markets (LLMs) have become important economic issues. For the former, it is useful to understand jointly where individuals live and where they work. For the latter, such markets attempt to delineate regions with a high proportion...
Article
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This paper aims to determine why consumer purchasing of fast moving consumer goods varies over time in Spain. More specifically, our objective is to explain multiple-store shopping in the households belonging to the Spanish Nielsen Homescan consumer panel that provides information about household shopping decisions between April 2003 and April 2004...
Article
OBJECTIVE To identify factors predictive of the outcome of a smoking cessation program by gender. METHODS A cross-sectional study of smokers starting treatment in a smoking cessation clinic from 2002 to 2007 was conducted. The variables consisted of data on sociodemographic factors, smoking habits, the social context of smoking and psychiatric com...
Article
Objective: to analyse the efficacy of a proactive intervention during the postpartum period to prevent a relapse in recent quitters and to promote progress in the behavioural process of change in smokers. Design: randomised controlled trial designed for women at the end of the pregnancy using a proactive intervention. Motivational Interviewing (...
Article
In this article we consider the sequential monitoring process in normal dynamic linear models as a Bayesian sequential decision problem. We use this approach to build a general procedure that jointly analyzes the existence of outliers, level changes, variance changes, and the development of local correlations. In addition, we study the frequentist...
Article
This paper is focused on the dynamic allocations of Spanish balanced pension plans that invest predominantly in Euro-zone equities. Applying a Bayesian method to a return-based style analysis that includes the constraints of the strong version and time-varying exposures, we provide evidence for no statistically significant changes over time in the...
Article
This paper aims to determine why consumer purchasing of fast moving consumer goods varies over time in Spain. More specifically, we want to explain multiple-store shopping in the households belonging to an AC Nielsen panel that provides information about household shopping decisions between April 2003 and April 2004. In order to achieve this purpos...
Article
In this paper we deal with the problem of variable selection in spatiotemporal autoregressive (STAR) models with neighbourhood effects. We propose a procedure to carry out the selection process, taking into account the uncertainty associated with estimation of the parameters and the predictive behaviour of the compared models, in order to give more...
Article
Objetivo: Conocer la evolución de la ansiedad a lo largo del proceso de cesación tabáquica (3 meses) en pacientes que solicitan tratamiento para dejar de fumar y su posible valor pronóstico en la recaída. Método: Estudio analítico prospectivo longitudinal. Variables de estudio: sexo, edad, estado civil, nivel de estudios, antecedentes de ansiedad y...
Article
In this paper we propose a robust Bayesian procedure of estimation, testing, validation and selection of spatio-temporal autoregressive models (STAR) with neighbourhood effects applied to the appraisal of dwelling prices. The methodology does not depend on asymptotic results and, unlike previously procedures proposed in the literature, takes into a...
Article
This article proposes a new methodology to estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) in a time varying heteroscedastic dynamic regression context. The methodology assumes that the form of the model and its information set may also change over time and takes into account the uncertainty associated with the joint selection of model and information set, provid...
Article
In this paper, we extend the Bayesian methodology introduced by Beamonte et al. (Stat Modelling 8:285–311, 2008) for the estimation and comparison of spatio-temporal autoregressive models (STAR) with neighbourhood effects, providing a more general treatment that uses larger and denser nets for the number of spatial and temporal influential neighbou...
Article
To assess the evolution of anxiety during the smoking cessation process (3 months) and early smoking relapse, in a group of smokers seeking treatment for giving up smoking. Analytical, prospective and longitudinal study. sex, age, marital status, educational level, anxiety and depression background, use of psychopharmacological drugs, cigarettes sm...
Article
Full-text available
Objetivo: Mejorar el conocimiento de algunos de los factores y actitudes que pueden influir en el consumo de drogas de los estudiantes universitarios españoles de primer curso, en especial en lo referente al tabaco. Métodos: Estudio descriptivo mediante cuestionario anónimo y voluntario. Variables de estudio: sexo, edad, entorno familiar, consumo d...
Article
To analyze several factors and attitudes related to drug use among first-year Spanish university students, with special reference to tobacco. Descriptive study using voluntary and anonymous questionnaire. sex, age, family environment, tobacco, cannabis and alcohol use, attitudes in favour of or against smoking, perceived danger of drugs and percept...
Article
This paper proposes new two-sided monitoring algorithms for detecting the presence of first order residual autocorrelations in Dynamic Normal Models. The methodology uses a Bayesian decision approach with loss function which takes into account the run-length of the process. The power and mean run-length of the proposed algorithms are analysed by Mo...
Article
In this paper we propose a semi-parametric Bayesian analysis of a spatio-temporal autoregressive model (STAR) with neighbourhood effects similar to those, of Pace et al. (1998, 2000). This approach allows us to make inferences about the parameters of the model and, more particularly, about the number of neighbours, without having to appeal to asymp...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
El objetivo de esta investigación es analizar el efecto ejercido por las características demográficas y geográficas de los hogares españoles en la variación de su escenario de compra a lo largo de un año. La principal aportación del trabajo es proporcionar un marco de medición del comportamiento variado de compra en un contexto dinámico. Para ello,...
Article
This paper presents a hierarchical Bayesian analysis of the partial adjustment model of financial ratios using mixture models, an approach that allows us to estimate the distribution of the adjustment coefficients. More particularly, it enables us to analyse speed of reaction in the presence of shocks affecting financial ratios objectives as a basi...
Article
Full-text available
Este trabajo analiza la composición del escenario de compra de los hogares españoles utilizando datos de un panel de consumo proporcionado por la empresa AC Nielsen. Para ello realiza una comparación bayesiana de un modelo Tobit y un modelo de Decisiones Separadas. Los resultados obtenidos confirman la influencia de indicadores económicos, demográf...
Article
This paper aims to analyse the underlying factors of varied behaviour shown in the store set of purchase of households during a time period (temporal variation). In order to examine whether there are differences between households with and without shopping varied behaviour, a Bayesian Separate Decisions Model has been used. By using data from AC Ni...
Article
In this paper we propose a multivariate extension of the partial adjustment model of financial ratios. To that end, we use a dynamic factor model which assumes that financial ratios measuring, essentially, the same economic-financial dimension of the firm evolve in a similar way, reflecting the evolution of the common factor. The proposed model is...
Article
The aim of this study was to assess the results of smoking cessation therapy in a specialist unit by calculating the probability of continued abstinence at 6-month follow-up and analyzing differences according to the characteristics of the individuals. A prospective longitudinal study was undertaken in smokers who received multicomponent smoking-ce...
Article
To evaluate weight gain and its relation to anxiety in a group of smokers after 3 months of cessation treatment. The target population for this prospective, analytical, longitudinal study was smokers being treated in a specialist smoking cessation clinic who were still abstinent at the conclusion of a 3-month treatment program. The following variab...
Article
Objective The aim of this study was to assess the results of smoking cessation therapy in a specialist unit by calculating the probability of continued abstinence at 6-month follow-up and analyzing differences according to the characteristics of the individuals. Patients and methods A prospective longitudinal study was undertaken in smokers who re...
Article
This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation procedure to determine the priorities of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in group decision making when there are a large number of actors and a prior consensus among them is not required. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach based on mixtures to describe the prior distribution of the priorities in th...
Article
This paper proposes a two-sided monitoring algorithm of changes in the exponential family. We adopt a Bayesian approach which uses a loss function and takes into account the run length of the process. It also extends the monitoring scheme proposed in [Harrison, P.J., Veerapen, P.P., 1994, A Bayesian decision approach to model monitoring and Cusums....
Article
Objective To evaluate weight gain and its relation to anxiety in a group of smokers after 3 months of cessation treatment. Patients and methods The target population for this prospective, analytical, longitudinal study was smokers being treated in a specialist smoking cessation clinic who were still abstinent at the conclusion of a 3-month treatme...
Article
Este trabajo analiza la evolución del precio de la vivienda en el Mercado Inmobiliario de Zaragoza. El estudio permite identificar las características estructurales de las viviendas que ejercen una influencia significativa en su precio, así como cuantificar la importancia de su localización y de la fecha en que se produjo la transacción. Para ello,...
Article
An automatic monitoring and intervention algorithm that permits the supervision of very general aspects in an univariate linear Gaussian state–space model is proposed. The algorithm makes use of a model comparison and selection approach within a Bayesian framework. In addition, this algorithm incorporates the possibility of eliminating earlier inte...
Article
Objetivo: Evaluar la dependencia psicológica mediante el test de Glover-Nilsson y establecer su relación con el éxito al finalizar el tratamiento. Material y métodos: Se ha realizado un estudio analítico longitudinal, cuya población objetivo han sido los fumadores que accedieron a una unidad de tabaquismo para deshabituación tabáquica. Se estudiaro...
Article
To assess behavioral dependence using the Glover-Nilsson test and determine its association with successful smoking cessation. An analytical longitudinal study was carried out, the target population of which consisted of smokers who enrolled in a smoking cessation clinic for treatment. The following variables were examined: age, sex, nicotine depen...
Article
To identify the predictors of successful outcome in a smoking cessation program at 6-month follow-up. Cross-sectional descriptive study of a sample of smokers who attended a smoking cessation clinic for combined medical and cognitive-behavioral group therapy. The independent variables assessed included age, sex, level of education, nicotine depende...
Article
Objetivo: Analizar los factores predictores del éxito de un programa de deshabituación tabáquica a los 6 meses de seguimiento. Material y métodos: Se ha realizado un estudio analítico transversal en una muestra formada por fumadores que habían accedido a una unidad de tabaquismo para tratamiento multicomponente en grupo. Las variables independiente...
Article
In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the parameters of a matrix normal dynamic linear model when the variance and covariance matrices of its error terms are unknown and can be changing over time. Given that the analysis is not conjugate, we use simulation methods based on Monte Carlo Markov chains to estimate the parameters of the m...
Article
An automatic monitoring and intervention algorithm that permits the supervision of very general aspects in a matrix normal dynamic linear model is proposed. The algorithm makes use of a model comparison and selection approach within a Bayesian framework. The procedure is illustrated with two empirical examples taken from the literature.