Piero Visconti

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis | IIASA · Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program

One contribution of 16 to a theme issue 'Measuring the difference made by protected areas: methods, applications and implications for policy and practice'. Several global strategies for protected area (PA) expansion have been proposed to achieve the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi target 11 as a means to stem biodiversity loss, as requir...

Reducing rates of biodiversity loss and achieving environmental goals requires an understanding of what is threatening biodiversity, where and how fast the threats are changing in type and intensity, and appropriate actions needed to avert them. One might expect that the Information Age – typified by a deluge of data resulting from massive and wide...

To address the ongoing global biodiversity crisis, governments have set strategic objectives and have adopted indicators to monitor progress towards their achievement. Projecting the likely impacts on biodiversity of different policy decisions allows decision makers to understand if and how these targets can be met. We projected trends in two widel...

Current levels of endangerment and historical trends of species and habitats are the main criteria used to direct conservation efforts globally. Estimates of future declines, which might indicate different priorities than past declines, have been limited by the lack of appropriate data and models. Given that much of conservation is about anticipati...

Area-based conservation is a widely used approach for maintaining biodiversity, and there are ongoing discussions over what is an appropriate global conservation area coverage target. To inform such debates, it is necessary to know the extent and ecological representativeness of the current conservation area network, but this is hampered by gaps in...

The European Union is committed to achieving ambitious area-based conservation and restoration targets in the upcoming decade. Yet, there is concern that these targets may conflict with societal needs, particularly food and timber production. Ensuring that competing demands for land are balanced, while the underlying objectives of these targets to...

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-m...

Globally, vertebrate abundance has declined, and species’ extinction rates have increased, at unprecedented rates over recent decades 1,2. In response, targeted species interventions, such as conservation breeding programmes, legislative measures or species-specific habitat management, have been used to help address population declines and reduce a...

Working paper analysing the economic implications of the proposed 30% target for areal protection in the draft post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework

Text comparison of the CBD GBF draft after ministerial consultations (COP15 Non-paper on item 9A v3, released Date: 17-12-2022) and the Presidency Draft (released Date: 18-12-2022)

Text comparison of the last Draft Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework negotiated by the parties (COP-15-WG1 non-paper on Item 9a v3, Released 17-12-2022) and the COP-15 Draft Decision, proposed by the Presidency (CBD/COP/15/L.25)

Citation: United Nations Environment Programme (2022). Strengthening Synergies: Climate change mitigation benefits from achieving global biodiversity targets. United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge. Key messages: 1. Well-directed action to conserve and restore biodiversity in line with the targets bein...

p>In this article, the abstract has been revised such that “30% of the total CO₂ increase in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution” now reads “30% of the total CO₂ increase in the atmosphere, or 14% of total emissions, since the Industrial Revolution.” In addition, the second paragraph in the “Priority areas for resto...

Unlabelled: The extent and impacts of biological invasions on biodiversity are largely shaped by an array of socio-economic and environmental factors, which exhibit high variation among countries. Yet, a global analysis of how these factors vary across countries is currently lacking. Here, we investigate how five broad, country-specific socio-econ...

Abstract Breeding populations of many wading birds have declined globally, primarily caused by habitat degradation and loss. In the United Kingdom, population declines have been particularly notable on lowland wet grasslands. In response, some areas of lowland wet grassland have been restored and receive ongoing management to improve the breeding c...

Aim Many vertebrate species globally are dependent on forests, most of which require active protection to safeguard global biodiversity. Forests, however, are increasingly either being disturbed, planted or managed in the form of timber or food plantations. Because of a lack of spatial data, forest management has commonly been ignored in previous c...

Spatially explicit information on forest management at a global scale is critical for understanding the status of forests, for planning sustainable forest management and restoration, and conservation activities. Here, we produce the first reference data set and a prototype of a globally consistent forest management map with high spatial detail on t...

Gaps in existing global conservation area datasets hamper efforts to measure progress towards international coverage and biodiversity representation targets. Here we present a framework to produce more accurate global conservation area metrics, based on selecting a representative set of nations for future collection of the best available data on pr...

Human impacts on the Earth’s biosphere are driving the global biodiversity crisis. Governments are preparing to agree on a set of actions intended to halt the loss of biodiversity and put it on a path to recovery by 2050. We provide evidence that the proposed actions can bend the curve for biodiversity, but only if these actions are implemented urg...

The majority of vertebrate species globally are dependent on forests, most of which require active protection to safeguard global biodiversity. Forests, however, are increasingly either being disturbed, planted or managed in the form of timber or food plantations. Because of a lack of spatial data, forest management has commonly been ignored in pre...

Observations are key to understand the drivers of biodiversity loss, and the impacts on ecosystem services and ultimately on people. Many EU policies and initiatives demand unbiased, integrated and regularly updated biodiversity and ecosystem service data. However, efforts to monitor biodiversity are spatially and temporally fragmented, taxonomical...

EXPERT INPUT TO THE POST-2020 GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY FRAMEWORK: TRANSFORMATIVE ACTIONS ON ALL DRIVERS OF BIODIVERSITY LOSS ARE URGENTLY REQUIRED TO ACHIEVE THE GLOBAL GOALS BY 2050

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species is central in biodiversity conservation, but insufficient resources hamper its long-term growth, updating, and consistency. Models or automated calculations can alleviate those challenges by providing standardised estimates required for assessments, or prioriti...

In recent years, vertebrate population abundance has declined at unprecedented rates. In response, targeted conservation measures such as breeding programs or species-specific habitat management have been applied to halt population declines, aid population recovery, and reduce and reverse the loss of biodiversity. Until now, assessments of conserva...

Advances in spatial biodiversity science and nationally available data have enabled the development of indicators that report on biodiversity outcomes, account for uneven global biodiversity between countries, and provide direct planning support. We urge their inclusion in the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.

To the Editor — Wyborn and Evans argue that global priority maps for conservation have questionable utility and may crowd out local and more contextual research. While we agree with the authors’ central argument that effective and equitable conservation must be rooted at local scales, the assertion that “conservation needs to break free from global...

To meet the ambitious objectives of biodiversity and climate conventions, the international community requires clarity on how these objectives can be operationalized spatially and how multiple targets can be pursued concurrently. To support goal setting and the implementation of international strategies and action plans, spatial guidance is needed...

The Anthropocene is characterized by unparalleled human impact on other species, potentially ushering in the sixth mass extinction. Yet mitigation efforts remain hampered by limited information on the spatial patterns and intensity of the threats driving global biodiversity loss. Here we use expert-derived information from the International Union f...

Ambitious area-based conservation targets are at the forefront of the post-2020 biodiversity conservation agenda. However, implementing such targets cannot be done without accounting for the increasing demand for farmland products, the main driver of biodiversity loss worldwide. Here, we analyze the expected conservation gains and farming opportuni...

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, Nature as Culture. In this paper, we describe how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support policy....

Protecting tropical forests and their biological diversity is a global priority. Understanding if thresholds of forest cover exist beyond which biodiversity displays non-linear declines is key to developing appropriate conservation strategies and policies, but uncertainty remains around the identification and characteristics of these thresholds. We...

As a source of emerging infectious diseases, wildlife assemblages (and related spatial patterns) must be quantitatively assessed to help identify high-risk locations. Previous assessments have largely focussed on the distributions of individual species; however, transmission dynamics are expected to depend on assemblage composition. Moreover, disea...

One of the basic purposes of protected areas and other effective area-based conservation interventions is to achieve conservation impact, the sum of avoided biodiversity loss and promoted recovery relative to outcomes without protection. In the context of the Convention on Biological Diversity’s negotiations on the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Fra...

17% of land and 7% of seas are now protected, but further expansion of protected and conserved areas is embedded within the post-2020 global biodiversity framework. It is time to set meaningful indicators to guide improvement in both the quantity and quality of protected areas in the coming decade.

In 2018, the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) adopted a decision on protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs). It contains the definition of an OECM and related scientific and technical advice that has broadened the scope of governance authorities and areas that can be engaged and recognised...

The extent and impacts of biological invasions on biodiversity are largely shaped by an array of socio-ecological predictors, which exhibit high variation among countries. Yet a global synthetic perspective of how these factors vary across countries is currently lacking. Here, we investigate how a set of five socio-ecological predictors (Governance...

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-20999-7.

Wet grassland wader populations in the United Kingdom have experienced severe declines over the last three decades. To help mitigate these declines, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) has restored and managed lowland wet grassland nature reserves to benefit these and other species. However, the impact that these reserves have on b...

Dragonflies and damselflies, within the order of Odonata, are important ecological indicators with widely recognised conservation value. They are generally better researched and protected than other invertebrates, yet, they have received limited protection from the European Union (EU)'s Habitats Directive, which serves as the major legislative tool...

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Many global environmental agendas, including halting biodiversity loss, reversing land degradation, and limiting climate change, depend upon retaining forests with high ecological integrity, yet the scale and degree of forest modification remain poorly quantified and mapped. By integrating data on observed and inferred human pressures and an index...

The essential contribution of nature to addressing climate change provides an opportunity to strengthen the links between the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Convention on Biological Diversity. As we move towards the next Conferences of the Parties of both Conventions, there is a need to assess explicitly the role of n...

Global biodiversity policy is at a crossroads. Recent global assessments of living nature (1, 2) and climate (3) show worsening trends and a rapidly narrowing window for action. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) has recently announced that none of the 20 Aichi targets for biodiversity it set in 2010 has been reached and only six have bee...

Extensive ecosystem restoration is increasingly seen as being central to conserving biodiversity1 and stabilizing the climate of the Earth2. Although ambitious national and global targets have been set, global priority areas that account for spatial variation in benefits and costs have yet to be identified. Here we develop and apply a multicriteria...

Humanity will soon define a new era for nature-one that seeks to transform decades of underwhelming responses to the global biodiversity crisis. Area-based conservation efforts, which include both protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures, are likely to extend and diversify. However, persistent shortfalls in ecological re...

Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity³; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge⁴. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and bi...

• Dragonflies and damselflies, within the order of Odonata, are important ecological indicators with widely recognised conservation value. They are generally better researched and protected than other invertebrates, yet, they have received limited protection from the European Union (EU)'s Habitats Directive, which serves as the major legislative to...

Aichi Target 12 of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) contains the aim to ‘prevent extinctions of known threatened species’. To measure the degree to which this was achieved, we used expert elicitation to estimate the number of bird and mammal species whose extinctions were prevented by conservation action in 1993–2020 (the lifetime of th...

We provide a global, spatially explicit characterization of 47 terrestrial habitat types, as defined in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) habitat classification scheme, which is widely used in ecological analyses, including for quantifying species' area of Habitat. We produced this novel habitat map for the year 2015 by crea...

Human pressure on the environment is driving a global decline of biodiversity. Anticipating whether this trend can be reverted under future scenarios is key to supporting policy decisions. We used the InSiGHTS framework to model the impacts of land-use and climate change on future habitat availability for 2,827 terrestrial mammals at 15 arcmin reso...

Further progress in reducing biodiversity loss relies on the improved quantification of the connections between drivers of habitat loss and subsequent biodiversity impacts. To this end, biodiversity impact metrics should be able to report linked trends in specific human activities and changes in biodiversity state, accounting for both the ecology o...

paragraph To meet the ambitious objectives of biodiversity and climate conventions, countries and the international community require clarity on how these objectives can be operationalized spatially, and multiple targets be pursued concurrently ¹ . To support governments and political conventions, spatial guidance is needed to identify which areas...

Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-us...

The global expansion of cropland exerts substantial pressure on natural ecosystems and is expected to continue with population growth and affluent demand. Yet earlier studies indicated that crop production could be more than doubled if attainable crop yields were achieved on present cropland. Here we show on the basis of crop modelling that closing...

Many global environmental agendas, including halting biodiversity loss, reversing land degradation, and limiting climate change, depend upon retaining forests with high ecological integrity, yet the scale and degree of forest modification remains poorly quantified and mapped. By integrating data on direct and indirect forest pressures and lost fore...

Aichi Target 12 of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) aims to 'prevent extinctions of known threatened species'. To measure its success, we used a Delphi expert elicitation method to estimate the number of bird and mammal species whose extinctions were prevented by conservation action in 1993 - 2020 (the lifetime of the CBD) and 2010 - 20...

Humanity will soon define a new era for nature – one that seeks to correct decades of underwhelming responses to the global biodiversity crisis. Area-based conservation efforts, which include both protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures, are likely to extend and diversify. But persistent shortfalls in ecological represe...