Pierluigi Calanca

Agroscope

In Switzerland, as elsewhere in the world, climate change is challenging viticulture. Knowledge of the potential impacts is essential for preparing adaptation measures. Two aspects directly impacted by increasing temperatures are the choice of grapevine varieties and the location of vineyards. To help address these impacts, we analysed future trend...

The European grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana) is one of the major pests of the grapevine (Vitis vinifera) in Europe. The phenology of both the insect pest and the plant has already changed over the last decades in response to rising temperatures, with a tendency towards an earlier development. The impact of a warming climate, among other factors, c...

Typology of pasture production When planning stocking density on pasture, the preliminary calculation of the surface-area requirement is based on an estimate of the forage production potential. Since the year 2000, grass growth has been measured in various intensively-to-semi-intensively-managed grasslands in the southwest of Switzerland. The dynam...

In this study, we investigated the consequences of climate change on bioclimatic indices in vineyards along the edge of Lake Neuchatel in Switzerland. Like in other vineyards all around the world, the typicity of wines and the phenology of vines have changed, particularly since the 1970s. Trends in the growing season average temperature and in Hugl...

A major challenge of agriculture is to improve the sustainability of food production systems in order to provide enough food for a growing human population. Pests and pathogens cause vast yield losses, while crop protection practices raise environmental and human health concerns. Decision support systems provide detailed information on optimal timi...

The productivity of permanent temperate cut grasslands is mainly driven by weather, soil characteristics, botanical composition and management. To adapt management to climate change, adjusting the cutting dates to reflect earlier onset of growth and expansion of the vegetation period is particularly important. Simulations of cut grassland productiv...

Modelling the response of permanent grasslands to climate change Understanding how permanent grasslands respond to climate changes is essential to show which options would potentially allow agriculture to fulfill its multiple tasks in a warmer and likely drier future. We study how an increase in temperature and aridity induced by global climate cha...

Mountain areas harbor large climatic and geographic gradients and form numerous habitats that promote high overall biodiversity. Compared to macroorganisms, knowledge about drivers of biodiversity and distribution of soil bacteria in mountain regions is still scarce but a prerequisite for conservation of bacterial functions in soils. An important q...

Permanent grasslands host a high plant diversity, which sustains many ecosystem services. Thus, understanding how composition of the plant community responds to different management practices under given soil and climatic conditions is crucial for making best use of grasslands. Modelling approaches may be used to explain the manifold interactions i...

The R code used to perform the numerical integration of the Dyna- GraM model and to generate the figures of this article, including sup- plementary figures in the Online Supplementary Material, are available online. The code is divided in several scripts, allowing the reader to reproduce all the exposed figures, and is available at: https://github....

Climate change and globalization affect the suitable conditions for agricultural crops and insect pests, threatening future food security. It remains unknown whether shifts in species’ climatic suitability will be linear or rather non‐linear, with crop exposure to pests suddenly increasing when a critical temperature threshold is crossed. Moreover,...

Global changes pose both risks and opportunities to agriculture and forestry, and biological forecasts can inform future management strategies. Here, we investigate potential land-use opportunities arising from climate change for these sectors in Europe, and risks associated with the introduction and establishment of novel insect pests. Adopting a...

Simulation of grass growth and pasture yields with ModVege Predicting grass growth could be very useful for the management of pastures, or deciding the best time to harvest hay meadows. The ModVege model was tested and improved using a set of 125 situations (meadow × year × management) collected from grassland areas in Switzerland. Comparisons betw...

Accumulated growing degree-days (aGDD) are widely used to predict phenological stages of plants and insects. It has been shown in the past that the best predictive performance is obtained when aGDD are computed from hourly temperature data. As the latter are not always available, models of diurnal temperature changes are often employed to retrieve...

Plants and insects depend on climatic factors (temperature, solar radiation, precipitations, relative humidity and CO2) for their development. Current knowledge suggests that climate change can alter plants and insects devel- opment and affect their interactions. Shifts in tritrophic relations are of particular concern for Integrated Pest Managemen...

Abstract Purpose – Although the importance of climate change is generally acknowledged, its impacts are often not taken into account explicitly when planning development projects. This being due to limited resources, among others, this paper aims to propose a simple and low-cost approach to assess the viability of human activities under climate cha...

A model-based yield forecasting system is presented that accounts for the impact of extreme weather events on crop production. It is motivated by a key observation, i.e., the impact of extreme events (such as prolonged droughts, heat waves and cold shocks) is poorly represented by most crop simulation models, and by a corollary expectation, that is...

We document the release of webXTREME, a new online tool for the evaluation of indices of climatic extremes (extreme temperatures and aridity) having impact on agricultural production. The tool is globally available and can be operated with either observed weather data or time series representing future climatic conditions. It is thus suitable for r...

Modelling the impacts of seasonal drought on herbage growth under climate change - Volume 7 Issue 3 - P. Calanca

Within the context of the Climate Change Adaptation Program (PACC), a number of scientific investigations on water resources, natural disasters and perceptions by local people highlight adaptation needs in the regions of Cusco and Apurímac in Peru, considering past, present-day and future climate conditions. This chapter compiles their findings and...

Eleven widely used crop simulation models (APSIM, CERES, CROPSYST, COUP, DAISY, EPIC, FASSET, HERMES, MONICA, STICS and WOFOST) were tested using spring barley ( Hordeum vulgare L.) data set under varying nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates from three experimental years in the boreal climate of Jokioinen, Finland. This is the largest standardized crop mo...

Large variability in N2O emissions from managed grasslands may occur because most emissions originate in surface litter or near-surface soil where variability in soil water content (θ) and temperature (Ts) is greatest. To determine whether temporal variability in θ and Ts of surface litter and near-surface soil could explain this in N2O emissions,...

Yield forecasts are generally based on a combination of expert knowledge, survey data, statistical analyses and model simulations. These forecasts, when public, influence crop prices and can be used to estimate end-of-season stocks. Thus, the skills and limitations of such products are important because they inform trade policies. In Europe, yield...

The purpose of the present investigation was to examine the ability of the simple mechanistic model published by Jouven et al. (2006a) to simulate the effects of drought on the seasonal patterns of growth in managed grasslands. Data collected in Switzerland were used for reference. Different representations of the effects of water stress on transpi...

Large variability in N2O emissions from managed grasslands may occur because most emissions originate in surface litter or near-surface soil where variability in soil water content (θ) and temperature (Ts) is greatest. To determine whether temporal variability in θ and Ts of surface litter and near-surface soil could explain that in N2O emissions,...

Crop models are commonly applied to estimate impacts of projected climate change and to anticipate suitable adaptation measures. Thereby, uncertainties from global climate models, regional climate models, downscaling techniques and impacts models cascade down to impact estimates. It is essential to quantify and understand uncertainties in impact as...

Decision making in climate change adaptation planning depends on the quantification and broad understanding of uncertainties in projected climate impacts. In a case study, we estimated impacts of climate change on potential grain maize yield up to the time horizon 2036–2065 for three climatic regions in Switzerland using – for the first time – thre...

Flux footprint models are often used for interpretation of flux tower measurements, to estimate position and size of surface source areas, and the relative contribution of passive scalar sources to measured fluxes. Accurate knowledge of footprints is of crucial importance for any upscaling exercises from single site flux measurements to local or re...

Climate change scenarios Projections of future climate change impacts on agricultural pests are necessary to initiate adaptation strategies in time. Organisms do not respond to global averages but rather to regional settings and their variations in time. Highly resolved climate data and scenarios are necessary to assess the ecological impacts of cl...

Flux footprint models are often used for interpretation of flux tower measurements, to estimate position and size of surface source areas, and the relative contribution of passive scalar sources to measured fluxes. Accurate knowledge of footprints is of crucial importance for any upscaling exercises from single site flux measurements to ecosystem o...

Projected future trends in water availability are associated with large uncertainties in many regions of the globe. In mountain areas with complex topography, climate models have often limited capabilities to adequately simulate the precipitation variability on small spatial scales. Also, their validation is hampered by typically very low station d...

Climate change in temperate regions will lead to higher and more extreme temperature distributions; however, its impact on pests and their control strategies is rarely investigated in detail. One reason is the problem of downscaling climate predictions to the temporal and spatial scale of pest life cycles. In the present study, we have closed that...

Smallholder agriculture in the Central Andes of Peru is based to large extent on rainfed cropping systems, is exposed to climatic risks and is expected to respond sensitively to increasing temperatures and shifts in the precipitation regime. Here, we examine the potential implications of early twenty-first century climate change scenarios for the c...

As the climate changes, the water requirement of agricultural crops tends to increase. This leads to a higher irrigation requirement. At the same time, water availability falls, since water levels in many catchment areas of the Swiss Central Plateau decline in the summer. In order to identify areas with an increased risk of water shortage, a hydrol...

A general principle in all proposed N2O mitigation options is the fertilization according to plants' requirements. Meanwhile the amount of N fertilization allowed is regulated in many countries. Due to the high pressure from food security and the need for economic efficiency the given limits are generally used up. In mown grassland systems a simple...

Besides its primary role in producing food and fiber, agriculture also has relevant effects on several other functions, such as management of renewable natural resources. Climate change (CC) may lead to new trade-offs between agricultural functions or aggravate existing ones, but suitable agricultural management may maintain or even improve the abi...

Effektiv bewässert werden aber nur Kulturen, bei denen sich der Aufwand wirtschaftlich lohnt, z.B. bei Kartoffeln, Zuckerrüben, Mais oder Spezialkulturen. In den nächsten Jahrzehnten könnten viele Land-wirte zur Sicherung von Ernteertrag und -qualität mit einem steigenden Bewässerungsbedarf konfrontiert sein. Klimaprojektionen für die Zeit um 2050...

We present a bio-economic model by combining a process-based grassland simulation model with an economic decision model that accounts for income risks and yield quality. The model is used to examine optimal nitrogen (N) application rates in a grass-clover system in Switzerland under current and future climatic conditions. Results for present-day cl...

In several regions of the world, climate change is expected to have severe impacts on agricultural systems. Changes in land management are one way to adapt to future climatic conditions, including land-use changes and local adjustments of agricultural practices. In previous studies, options for adaptation have mostly been explored by testing altern...

Local-scale daily climate scenarios are required for assessment of climate change impacts. ELPIS is a repository of local-scale climate scenarios for Europe, which are based on the LARS-WG weather generator and future projections from 2 multi-model ensembles, CMIP3 and EU-ENSEMBLES. In ELPIS, the site parameters for the 1980-2010 baseline scenarios...

Mechanistic crop growth models are becoming increasingly important in agricultural research and are extensively used in climate change impact assessments. In such studies, statistics of crop yields are usually evaluated without the explicit consideration of sample size requirements. The purpose of this paper was to identify minimum sample sizes for...

Climate change will alter the environmental conditions for crop growth and require adjustments in management practices at the field scale. In this paper, we analyzed the impacts of two different climate change scenarios on optimal field management practices in winterwheat and grain maize production with case studies from Switzerland. Management opt...

Available soil water is a major constraint for numerous ecosystem functions and is likely to be considerably affected by projected shifts in temperature and precipitation. Quantifying likely future changes in soil water content is therefore essential for assessing impacts of climate change on ecosystem functions. Here we present a modeling study ad...

El presente documento es resultado del proyecto AndesPlus, que fue ejecutado en el marco del Proyecto de Adaptación al Impacto del Retroceso acelerado de Glaciares en los Andes Tropicales (PRAA) que se implementa en los países de la región andina contando con el Banco Mundial como agencia de implementación y la Secretaría General de la Comunidad An...

Climate plays a fundamental role in agriculture. The quantity and quality of crop yield can be affected by water stress, heat stress or frost or by pests and diseases. As climate conditions change, suitability zones for the cultivation of specific crops may shift. For planners and land managers it is important to understand such changes in order to...

This paper presents a simple approach for estimating the spatial and temporal variability of seasonal net irrigation water requirement (IWR) at the catchment scale, based on gridded land use, soil and daily weather data at 500 x 500 m resolution. In this approach, IWR is expressed as a bounded, linear function of the atmospheric water budget, where...

Process-based crop models are widely used in decision support systems or to assess impacts of climate change on agriculture at different spatial scales. They include crop and/or cultivar-specific parameters that need to be calibrated. However, the availability of reference data is often limited. An alternative is to use yield records from widely av...

Monthly weather forecasts (MOFCs) were shown to have skill in extratropical continental regions for lead times up to 3 weeks, in particular for temperature and if weekly averaged. This skill could be exploited in practical applications for implementations exhibiting some degree of memory or inertia toward meteoro-logical drivers, potentially even f...

We present the integration of early 21st century climate projections for Europe based on simulations carried out within the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project with the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The aim was to upgrade ELPIS, a repository of local-scale climate scenarios for use in impact studies and risk assessments that already included global pr...

We studied the impact of climate change on the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in productive grassland systems undergoing two types of management, an intensive type with frequent harvests and fertilizer applications and an extensive system without fertilization and fewer harvests. Simulations were conducted with a dedicated newly devel...

Recent scientific assessment studies of climate change impacts, including those from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, provide evidence of the negative effects of climate variability and change on natural and human systems. For instance, recent climate trends have caused loss in wheat and maize production, negatively affected coral ree...

Global warming will lead to earlier beginnings and prolongation of growing seasons in temperate regions and will have pronounced effects on phenology and life-history adaptation in many species. These changes were not easy to simulate for actual phenologies because of the rudimentary temporal (season) and spatial (regional) resolution of climate mo...

Validation of seasonal phenology from SOPRA with field observations. Observed weather was used to compare seasonal relative phenology (%) for adult flight (overwintering and first generation) from SOPRA output and trap catches of adult male moths (traps were checked once per week) at the climate station Wädenswil in 2003. The year 2003 was taken as...

Validation of DOY for first flight from SOPRA with field observations. SOPRA was driven with observed weather to compare the DOY for adult moth first flight (overwintering generation) with field observations (trap catches of adult male moths) at the climate station Wädenswil between 1990 and 2010. There was a significant correlation (Pearson's prod...

Insurers have relied on historical data to design weather insurance contracts. In light of climate change, we examine the effects of this practice on the hedging effectiveness and profitability of insurance contracts. Using synthetic crop and weather data for today's and future climatic conditions we derive adjusted weather insurance contracts that...

Given the repercussions of pests and diseases on agricultural production, detailed forecasting tools have been developed to simulate the degree of infestation depending on actual weather conditions. The life cycle of pests is most successfully predicted if the micro-climate of the immediate environment (habitat) of the causative organisms can be si...

The Cusco and Apurímac region (Southern Peru) in the outer tropical Andes is characterized by a distinct wet and dry season. The climatology of the Andes region in southern Peru is complex and mainly influenced by tropical and extra tropical upper level-large scale circulation as well as by local convection. For the past decades, observations from...

Climate change is leading to higher temperatures across Switzerland, increasing the risk of heat stress in livestock. Analyzing a «Temperature-Humidity Index» at various locations, it could be shown that the risk for dairy cows already grew substantially on a daily average over the past 30 years, whereas the maximum of the index did not change much...

Statistical models are common tools for quantifying possible impacts of climate change on crops. Climate change involves shifts in both mean and variability of climate parameters, and experimental results and simulations have shown that both mean and variability can have the same-order effects on crop growth and yield. It is therefore important for...

We studied the impact of climate change on the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in productive grassland systems undergoing two types of management, an intensive type with frequent harvests and fertilizer applications and an extensive system where fertilization is omitted and harvests are fewer. The Oensingen Grassland Model was explicit...

Climate in its spatial and temporal variability is one of the major drivers determining agricultural productivity in a region. In order to develop long-term agricultural policies, planners need to understand the likely impacts of climate change on agricultural suitability zones. In this paper we present a flexible approach for the spatio-temporal e...

In this paper, we assess climate change impacts on an intensively managed grassland system at the Swiss Plateau using the process-based grassland model PROGRASS. Taking the CO2 fertilization into account, we find increasing yield levels (in the range of 10–24%) and sharp increases in production risks for an illustrative climate change scenario that...