Philippe Cantet

Hydris Hydrology

Snow water equivalent (SWE) is among the most important variables in the hydrological modelling of high latitude and mountainous areas. While manual snow surveys can directly provide SWE measurements, they are time consuming and costly, especially compared to automated snow depth measurements. Moreover, SWE is strongly correlated to snow depth. For...

The latest version of the atmospheric general circulation model ARPEGE‐Climat was used to perform 5‐member ensemble simulations for both present and RCP8.5 scenario climates (mid‐twenty first century). The rotated/stretched configuration enables a local horizontal resolution of less than 15km over the tropical North Atlantic basin. Moreover, a trac...

A snow model forced by temperature and precipitation is used to simulate the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) over a 600,000 km2 portion of the province of Quebec, Canada. We propose to improve model simulations by assimilating SWE data from sporadic manual snow surveys with a particle filter. A temporally and spatially correlate...

Flood frequency analyses (FFAs) are needed for flood risk management. Many methods exist ranging from classical purely statistical approaches to more complex approaches based on process simulation. The results of these methods are associated with uncertainties that are sometimes difficult to estimate due to the complexity of the approaches or the n...

SHYREG method is a regionalized method for rainfall and flood frequency analysis (FFA). It is based on processes simulation. It couples an hourly rainfall generator with a rainfall-runoff model, simplified enough to be regionalized. The method has been calibrated using all hydro meteorological data available at the national level. In France, that r...

This study focuses on the spatial distribution of mean annual and monthly precipitation in a small island (1128 km2) named Martinique, located in the Lesser Antilles. Only 35 meteorological stations are available on the territory, which has a complex topography. With a digital elevation model (DEM), 17 covariates that are likely to explain precipit...

High-resolution climate change simulations over the Lesser Antilles are performed using the ALADIN-Climate regional climate model nested within the global model ARPEGE (Météo-France). Three sets of simulations are conducted at 10 km grid spacing for reference (1971–2000) and future climate (2071–2100) under two CMIP5 scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)....

The hourly rainfall stochastic model SHYPRE is based on the simulation of descrip-tive variables. It generates long series of hourly rainfall and enables an at-site empirical estimation of distribution quantiles over France. The present study focuses on its ability to reproduce extreme rainfall occurred in the sultanate of Oman where the climate is...

The hourly rainfall stochastic model SHYPRE is based on the simulation of descriptive variables. It generates long series of hourly rainfall and enables an at-site empirical estimation of distribution quantiles over France. The present study focuses on the improvement of the rainfall generator by modelling storm characteristics dependence by the co...

Extreme events are rarely observed, so their analysis is generally based on observations of more frequent values. The relevance of the flood frequency analysis (FFA) method depends on its capability to estimate the frequency of extreme values with reasonable accuracy using extrapolation. An FFA method based on stochastic simulation of flood event i...

The great interest in climate change during the past 20 years has led to a quasi unanimous conclusion for scientists: the Earth’s climate is changing (IPCC 2013). It is important to know if this global change could lead to an increase in extreme events in order to prevent hydrological risks. In this work, the analysis of the climate change impact o...

La méthode SHYREG1 est une méthode de prédétermination de l’aléa hydrométéorologique extrême, basée sur la simulation des processus. Elle met en oeuvre un générateur stochastique de pluies horaires couplé à une modélisation hydrologique suffisamment simplifiée pour être régionalisée. La méthode a été calée sur l’ensemble des données hydrométéorolog...

We compare three approaches to estimate the distribution of extreme rainfall at ungauged sites. Two approaches rely on the univariate generalized extreme value distribution (GEV). SIGEV interpolates linearly the GEV parameters estimated locally. RFA is a regional method which builds circular homogeneous neighborhood around each site in order to inc...

Since the last decade, copulas have become more and more widespread in the construction of hydrological models. Unlike the multivariate statistics which are traditionally used, this tool enables scientists to model different dependence structures without drawbacks. The authors propose to apply copulas to improve the performance of an existing model...

La connaissance de la pluie à pas de temps fins est primordiale dans la prédétermination des crues, en particulier dans les zones montagneuses. Le manque d’observation et la fiabilité de celle-ci rendent difficiles une cartographie de l’aléa pluvial dans ces régions. Dans ce but, nous proposons une méthode originale qui consiste à reproduire les pl...

An original approach is proposed to estimate the impacts of climate change on extreme events using an hourly rainfall stochastic generator. The considered generator relies on three parameters. These parameters are estimated by average, not by extreme, values of daily climatic characteristics. Since climate changes should result in parameters instab...

Flash flood forecasting at ungauged sites is one of the most difficult tasks in operational hydrology. The post-event analysis of catastrophic events offers the possibility to really appreciate the usefulness of warnings emitted during the crisis. This poster presents results obtained by the operational AIGA warning method during the dramatic 15th...

Des récentes études ont montré la difficulté de détecter des tendances des phénomènes extrêmes de précipitation. C'est pourquoi, dans cette thèse, nous proposons une étude originale de l'impact du changement climatique sur les pluies extrêmes par l'utilisation d'un générateur stochastique de pluies horaires. La détection de l'évolution climatique e...

The great interest on climate change during these last years has led to a quasi unanimous conclusion for scientists: the Earth climate changes. An increase of precipitation in the middle and high latitude area of north hemisphere was detected. In order to prevent hydrological risks, it's interesting to know if these global changes lead to an increa...

International audience Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods together with hidden Markov models are extensively used in the Bayesian inference for many scientific fields like environment and ecology. Through simulated examples we show that the speed of convergence of these methods can be very low. In order to improve the convergence properties, w...