Philippe Bacchetta

Philippe Bacchetta
University of Lausanne | UNIL · Faculty of Business and Economics (HEC)

PhD in Economics, Harvard U.

About

106
Publications
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5,622
Citations

Publications

Publications (106)
Article
This paper proposes long-run estimates of ex ante real interest rates in Switzerland and other developed economies, and it describes their relative evolution. Our results highlight the decline in—and convergence of—global real interest rates that has unfolded over the last three decades for all maturities. While Swiss yields stand out as being part...
Article
We introduce a portfolio friction in a two-country DSGE model where investors face a constant probability to make new portfolio decisions. The friction leads to a more gradual portfolio adjustment to shocks and a weaker portfolio response to changes in expected excess returns. We apply the model to monthly data for the US and rest of the world for...
Article
Recently portfolio choice has become an important element of many DSGE open economy models. Yet, a substantial body of evidence is inconsistent with standard frictionless portfolio choice models. In this paper we introduce a quadratic cost of changes in portfolio allocation into a two-country DSGE model. We investigate the level of portfolio fricti...
Article
Using syndicated loan‐level data, we document and explain the causes and implications of a new and surprising stylized fact. In the midst of the financial crisis, dollar borrowing by leveraged Eurozone (EZ) corporates rose dramatically relative to their euro borrowing. We show that this resulted from a shift from EZ to non‐EZ banks, mainly U.S. ban...
Article
The objective of this paper is to show that the proposal by Froot and Thaler (1990) of delayed portfolio adjustment can account for a broad set of puzzles about the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates. The puzzles include: i) the delayed overshooting puzzle; ii) the forward discount puzzle (or Fama puzzle); iii) the predictabilit...
Article
Using a monetary model with asset scarcity, we show that a liquidity trap caused by a persistent deleveraging shock increases real cash holdings and decreases investment and output in the medium term. This medium-term supply-side effect arises when firms face financial constraints. Policy implications differ from shorter-run analyses implied by nom...
Article
In the aftermath of the US financial crisis, both a sharp drop in employment and a surge in corporate cash have been observed. In this paper, based on US data, we argue that the negative relationship between the corporate cash ratio and employment is systematic, both over time and across firms. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model where h...
Article
While the 2008-2009 financial crisis originated in the United States, output, consumption, and investment declined by similar magnitudes around the globe. Given the partial integration of both goods and financial markets, what can account for the remarkable global business cycle synchronicity during this period To address this question, we develop...
Article
The recent period of capital outflows from emerging economies has coincided with an increase in their corporate saving. In this paper, we model corporate saving as a demand for liquid assets by credit-constrained firms in a dynamic open-economy macroeconomic model. We find that the implications of this model are very different from standard models,...
Article
Despite international financial disintegration, we document a dramatic increase in dollar borrowing among leveraged Eurozone corporates during the Great Financial Crisis. Using loan-level data, we trace this increase to the twin crisis in the credit market and in funding markets. The reduction in the supply of credit by Eurozone banks caused riskie...
Article
In this paper, we examine theoretically how corporate saving in emerging markets is contributing to global rebalancing. We consider a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model, based on Bacchetta and Benhima (2014), with a Developed and an Emerging country. Firms need to save in liquid assets to finance their production projects, especially in...
Article
This paper considers an alternative perspective to China’s exchange rate policy. It studies a semi-open economy where the private sector has no access to international capital markets but the central bank has full access. Moreover, it assumes limited financial development generating a large demand for saving instruments by the private sector. The p...
Article
In the aftermath of the U.S. financial crisis, both a sharp drop in employment and a surge in corporate cash have been observed. In this paper, based on U.S. data, we document that the negative relationship between the corporate cash ratio and employment is systematic, both over time and across firms. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model...
Chapter
In this chapter, the structure of the theoretical section of the Encyclopedia of Financial Globalization is outlined. The main topics include net capital flows and the current account, gross capital flows and international balance sheets, capital flows and crises, exchange rates as asset prices, and the implications of international financial integ...
Article
Full-text available
Motivated by the Chinese experience, we analyze an economy where the central bank has access to international capital markets, but the private sector does not. The central bank is modeled as a Ramsey planner who can choose the domestic interest rate and the level of international reserves. Consumers are credit-constrained as in Woodford (1990). We...
Article
While the 2008-2009 fi…nancial crisis originated in the United States, we witnessed steep declines in output, consumption and investment of similar magnitudes around the globe. This raises two questions. First, given the observed strong home bias in goods and fi…nancial markets, what can account for the remarkable global business cycle synchronicit...
Article
Full-text available
In the recent decade, capital outflows from emerging economies, in the form of a demand for liquid assets, have played a key role in the context of global imbalances. In this paper, we model the demand for liquid assets by firms in a dynamic open-economy macroeconomic model. We find that the implications of this model are very different from standa...
Article
Recent episodes (October 2008, May 2010, August 2011) have witnessed huge spikes in equity price risk (implied volatility). Apart from their large size, several features characterize these risk panics. They are global phenomena, shared among a broad set of countries. There is substantial variation though in the extent to which individual countries...
Article
The recent theoretical literature in international finance has proposed several explanations for the deviations from uncovered interest rate parity. This short chapter briefly reviews these contributions by classifying the explanations into three categories: risk premium, limited market participation, and deviations from rational expectations.
Article
There has been a long debate about whether speculators are stabilizing or not. We consider a model where speculators have a stabilizing role in normal times, but may also provoke large risk panics. The very feature that makes arbitrageurs liquidity providers in normal times, namely their tolerance of risk, enables a large increase in asset price ri...
Article
This chapter reviews the implications of various forms of incomplete information in an otherwise standard model of exchange rate determination. First, it talks about a standard “benchmark” monetary model of exchange rate determination that makes the usual set of restrictive assumptions about the information structure. Next, the chapter examines the...
Article
Full-text available
A major puzzle in international finance is that high interest rate currencies tend to appreciate (forward discount puzzle). Motivated by the fact that only a small fraction of foreign currency holdings is actively managed, we calibrate a two-country model in which agents make infrequent portfolio decisions. We show that the model can account for th...
Article
Full-text available
The recent financial crisis has highlighted the key role of leveraged financial institutions as liquidity providers. We incorporate leveraged financial institutions into a dynamic general equilibrium portfolio choice model in order to analyze the dynamics of risk, leverage, liquidity and asset prices. We particularly emphasize the role of self-fulf...
Article
Recent crises have seen very large spikes in asset price risk without dramatic shifts in fundamentals. We propose an explanation for these risk panics based on self-fulfilling shifts in risk made possible by a negative link between the current asset price and risk about the future asset price. This link implies that risk about tomorrow's asset pric...
Article
Recent crises have seen very large spikes in asset price risk without dramatic shifts in fundamentals. We propose an explanation for these risk panics based on self-fulfilling shifts in risk made possible by a negative link between the current asset price and risk about the future asset price. This link implies that risk about tomorrow's asset pric...
Article
Full-text available
The empirical literature on nominal exchange rates shows that the current exchange rate is often a better predictor of future exchange rates than a linear combination of macroeconomic fundamentals. This result is behind the famous Meese-Rogoff puzzle. In this paper we evaluate whether parameter instability can account for this puzzle. We consider a...
Article
It is well known from anecdotal, survey and econometric evidence that the relationship between the exchange rate and macro fundamentals is highly unstable. This could be explained when structural parameters are known and very volatile, neither of which seems plausible. Instead we argue that large and frequent variations in the relationship between...
Article
There is widespread evidence of excess return predictability in financial markets. For the foreign exchange market a number of studies have documented that the predictability of excess returns is closely related to the predictability of expectational errors of excess returns. In this paper we investigate the link between the predictability of exces...
Article
We examine formally Keynes' idea that higher order beliefs can drive a wedge between an asset price and its fundamental value based on expected future payoffs. We call this the higher order wedge, which depends on the difference between higher and first order expectations of future payoffs. We analyze the determinants of this wedge and its impact o...
Article
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Two well-known, but seemingly contradictory, features of exchange rates are that they are close to a random walk while at the same time exchange rate changes are predictable by interest rate differentials. In this paper we investigate whether these two features of the data may in fact be related. In particular, we ask whether the predictability of...
Article
Empirical evidence shows that most exchange rate volatility at short to medium horizons is related to order flow and not to macroeconomic variables. We introduce symmetric information dispersion about future macroeconomic fundamentals in a dynamic rational expectations model in order to explain these stylized facts. Consistent with the evidence, th...
Article
The vast empirical exchange rate literature finds the effect of exchange rate volatility on real activity to be small or insignificant. In contrast, this paper offers empirical evidence that real exchange rate volatility can have a significant impact on productivity growth. However, the effect depends critically on a country's level of financial de...
Article
The uncovered interest rate parity equation is the cornerstone of most models in international macro. However, this equation does not hold empirically since the forward discount, or interest rate differential, is negatively related to the subsequent change in the exchange rate. This forward discount puzzle implies that excess returns on foreign cur...
Article
Full-text available
This paper offers empirical evidence that a country's choice of exchange rate regime can have a signifficant impact on its medium-term rate of productivity growth. Moreover, the impact depends critically on the country's level of financial development, its degree of market regulation, and its distance from the global technology frontier. We illustr...
Article
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I modify the uniform-price auction rules in allowing the seller to ration bidders. This allows me to provide a strategic foundation for underpricing when the seller has an interest in ownership dispersion. Moreover, many of the so-called "collusive-seeming" equilibria disappear.
Article
Business cycles in different regions of the United States tend to synchronize. This study investigates the reasons behind this synchronization of business cycles and the consequent formation of a national business cycle. Trade between regions may not be strong enough for one region to "drive" business cycle fluctuations in another region. This stud...
Article
This paper introduces a framework for analyzing the role of financial factors as a source of instability in small open economies. Our basic model is a dynamic open economy model with a tradeable good produced with capital and a country-specific factor. We also assume that firms face credit constraints, with the constraint being tighter at a lower l...
Article
Full-text available
Business cycles in different regions of the United States tend to synchronize. This study investigates the reasons behind this synchronization of business cycles and the consequent formation of a national business cycle. Trade between regions may not be strong enough for one region to "drive" business cycle fluctuations in another region. This stud...
Article
This paper presents a general equilibrium currency crisis model of the ‘third generation’, in which the possibility of currency crises is driven by the interplay between private firms’ credit-constraints and nominal price rigidities. Despite our emphasis on microfoundations, the model remains sufficiently simple that the policy analysis can be cond...
Article
It is well known that the extent of pass-through of exchange rate changes to consumer prices is much lower than to import prices. One explanation is local distribution costs. Here we consider an alternative, complementary explanation based on the optimal pricing strategies of firms. We consider a model where foreign exporting firms sell intermediat...
Article
The currency denomination of international trade has significant macroeconomic and policy implications. In this paper we solve for the optimal invoicing choice by integrating this microeconomic decision at the level of the firm into a general equilibrium open economy model. Strategic interactions between firms play a critical role. We find that the...
Article
This paper presents a simple model of currency crises which is driven by the interplay between the credit constraints of private domestic firms and the existence of nominal price rigidities. The possibility of multiple equilibria, including a ‘currency crisis’ equilibrium with low output and a depreciated domestic currency, results from the followi...
Article
Full-text available
This paper examines the relationship between the exchange rate regime and trade flows using a general equilibrium model based on Bacchetta and van Wincoop (AER, 2000). We show that in general the link between trade and the exchange rate regime is ambiguous and that it depends in particular on the nature of macroeconomic shocks and consumer preferen...
Article
Full-text available
This paper introduces a framework for analyzing the role of financial factors as a source of stability in small open economies. Our basic model is a dynamic open economy with a tradeable good produced with capital and a country-specific factor. We also assume that firms face credit constraints, with the constraint being tighter at a lower level of...
Article
When the automobile was developed near the beginning of the last century, it was the relatively new fuel gasoline, not the familiar ethanol that became the fuel of choice. We examine the intersections of the early development of the automobile and the petroleum industry and consider the state of the agriculture sector during the same period. Throug...
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A major feature characterizing recent currency crises in emerging markets has been the large proportion of private foreign currency debt. This feature has made the conduct of monetary policy particularly difficult. This paper proposes a simple model to better understand these issues where firms are credit constrained and the currency denomination o...
Article
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There has been extensive empirical research on the role of credit markets in the transmission of US monetary policy, but the evidence for other countries is scarce. This paper compares the US experience with a set of 13 European countries by examining monetary VARs including banks' balance sheets in the spirit of Bernanke and Blinder (1992). It is...
Article
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This paper develops a simple general-equilibrium framework to study the effect of the exchange-rate system on trade and welfare. An important feature of the model is deviations from purchasing-power parity, caused by rigid price setting in buyers' currency. In a benchmark model with separable preferences and only monetary shocks, trade is unaffecte...
Article
Nominal assets play a major role in international financial markets, while trade in indexed bonds is not empirically relevant. As a result, agents are generally exposed to both price and exchange rate uncertainty. Nonetheless, previous research on net capital flows has assumed the presence of a risk-free vehicle to intertemporal asset trade. In thi...
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This paper examines bilateral double taxation treaties, with an emphasis on information exchange among tax authorities. A major objective is to understand which countries are more likely to sign a tax-relief treaty and when information-exchange clauses will be added to a treaty. A simple model with two asymmetric countries and repeated interactions...
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The recent East Asian crisis has highlighted the relationship between financial development and output volatility. In this essay we develop a simple model of a small open economy producing a tradeable good using a non-tradeable input and where firms access to borrowings and investment depends on current cash flows. We then show, first that macroeco...
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On the eve of a major change in the world monetary system, the adoption of a single currency in Europe, our theoretical understanding of the implications of the exchange rate regime for trade and capital flows is still limited. We argue that two key model ingredients are essential to address this question: a general equilibrium setup and deviations...
Article
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This paper provides a survey on studies that analyze the macroeconomic effects of intellectual property rights (IPR). The first part of this paper introduces different patent policy instruments and reviews their effects on R&D and economic growth. This part also discusses the distortionary effects and distributional consequences of IPR protection a...
Article
PAIN is certainly one of the Western European countries that has experienced the most dramatic changes in the past 20 years. In addition to a political shift from dictatorship to democracy in the mid-1970s, the economic structure has been deeply reformed. These changes, including the process of European integration, have been generally beneficial t...
Article
If some consumers are liquidity-constrained, aggregate consumption should be ‘excessively sensitive’ to credit conditions as well as to income. Moreover, the ‘excess sensitivity’ may vary over time. Using data for the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan and France, we find a substantial impact of credit aggregates on consumption in all...
Article
We study the consequences and optimality of alternative speeds of trade liberalization when investment (restructuring) activities help firms learn their true level of efficiency and determine survival prospects In contrast to the existing literature, we find that a gradual trade reform might be preferred when authorities are more preoccupied with t...
Book
Switzerland is at the centre of Europe, but is not part of the European Union. Its specific policy concerns are often less known than for other countries but might offer an alternative model to integration. This collection from some of the best academic economists in Switzerland covers monetary economics, competition, health care, environmental and...
Article
We develop a dynamic general equilibrium macroeconomic model where a proportion of firms are credit constrained due to asymmetric information. In general, a macroeconomic shock has additional effects created by a reallocation of funds between credit-constrained and unconstrained firms, as they have different marginal productivities. We show, howeve...
Article
This article examines the wedge between Madrid and London peseta interest rates in the late 1980s, when controls on capital inflows were imposed. A model of onshore and offshore markets and of arbitrage between the two is proposed, where arbitrage has a dynamic structure caused by the process of controls avoidance. The model implies, first, that th...
Article
The residence-based principle has been proposed as a second-best measure to the full international coordination of capital tax policies. This system requires that tax authorities have full information about the foreign investments of their residents. However, the degree of information transmission among governments can be considered as a strategic...
Article
We show that devaluations lead to a J-curve when imported goods are durable and import prices adjust slowly to exchange rate changes. The J-curve effect is caused by intertemporal speculation as import prices are low relative to future prices immediately after a devaluation.
Article
We use a simple general equilibrium model to show that any allocation (private consumption, real cash balances, and government spending) supported by a policy that involves reserve requirements (plus inflation and public debt) can also be supported by a policy that uses a direct tax on bank deposits (plus inflation and public debt), and vice-versa....
Article
Sumario: This paper analyzes the effect of financial integration for countries relying on seigniorage. A two-country model with overlapping generations and explicit financial intermdiation is used. Governments derive revenues from seigniorage and set optimally, but non-cooperatively, the rate of inflation and the level of required reserves on bank...
Article
This paper analyzes the dynamic impact of a joint liberalization of capital movements and of the domestic financial sector. Both a simultaneous and a sequential liberalization are examined in an overlapping-generations model with a q-theory of investment. A liberalization generally leads to an initial period of capital inflows followed by capital o...
Article
The deadline of January 1993, marking the full liberalization of capital movements, combined with the additional changes implied by the integration into the European Community (EC), represents a formidable challenge for Spain. The behaviour of all economic actors will be deeply affected as the traditional autarkic structure of the Spanish economy w...
Article
This paper analyzed the effect of anticipated temporary capital controls ina balance-of-payments crisis, using a model based on intertemporal optimization. The anticipation of the controls affects the economy from the beginning of the crisis, usually creating a current account deficit. A speculative attack can occur just before the controls are imp...
Article
Sumario: I. Política monetaria: el Sistema Monetario Europeo; efecto del SME con movilidad imperfecta de capitales; efecto del SME con movilidad perfecta de capitales; cambios en el sistema financiero -- II. Política presupuestaria: "seignorage"; composición de la deuda; el papel estabilizador de la política fiscal en el contexto del SME; política...
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Full-text available
This paper extends earlier work by Feldstein and Horioka on the relation between domestic saving rates and international capital flows or, equivalently, between domestic saving rates and domestic investment. The basic conclusion of the present analysis is that an increase in domestic saving has a substantial effect on the level of domestic investme...
Article
Full-text available
The present paper introduces a new index of the real value of the dollar relative to 80 other currencies. The individual exchange rates are combined with weights that reflect the recent (1984) multilateral pattern of trade. This new index confirms that the dollar rose very sharply between January 1980 and February 1985 and that about two-thirds of...

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