Philip Lane

• Trinity College Dublin

This paper documents the evolution of international financial integration since the global financial crisis using an updated dataset on external assets and liabilities, covering 212 economies for the period 1970–2015. It finds that the growth in cross-border positions in relation to world GDP has come to a halt. This reflects much weaker capital fl...

Research on the geographical distribution of international portfolios has mainly focused on data aggregated to the country level. We exploit newly-available data that disaggregates the holders and issuers of international securities along sectoral lines. We find that patterns evident in the aggregate data do not uniformly apply across the various h...

We examine international financial flows to SSA, with a particular focus on the implications for macro-financial risk exposures. While gross and net international financial inflows have increased in recent years, these patterns should be understood in the context of a more robust international balance sheet and a shift in the risk composition of in...

A drop in net FDI investment income has been the primary factor in the recent deterioration in the measured UK current account balance, with the trade balance relatively stable. We argue that financial engineering (with little net impact on the underlying international investment position for the UK) may have contributed to the decline in net FDI i...

For a sample of low-income countries, we analyse the behaviour of international financial flows during three periods: (i) the 2003–2007 global boom; (ii) the 2008–2009 crisis; and (iii) the 2010–2012 recovery phase. In particular, we examine aid-adjusted net financial inflows, debt inflows, foreign direct investment inflows and official reserve out...

We examine the evolution of international currency exposures, with a particular focus on the 2002–12 period. During the run up to the global financial crisis, there was a widespread shift towards positive net foreign currency positions, such that relatively few countries exhibited the archetypal emerging-market “ short foreign currency” position on...

During the pre-crisis period, Europe experienced substantial cross-country variation in domestic credit growth and cross-border capital flows. We investigate the inter-relations between domestic credit growth and international capital flows during the period 1993–2008, with a special focus on the boom period of 2003–2008. We establish that domestic...

This paper has two objectives. First, it reviews the recent dynamics of global imbalances (both “flow†and “stock†imbalances), with a special focus on the shifting position of Latin America in the global distribution. Second, it examines the cross-country variation in external adjustment over 2008-2012. In particular, it shows how pre-crisis...

We investigate the behaviour of gross capital flows and net capital flows for Euro area member countries. We highlight the extraordinary boom-bust cycles in both gross flows and net flows since 2003. We emphasize that the reversal in net capital flows during the crisis has been very costly in terms of macroeconomic and financial outcomes for the hi...

This paper reviews the impact of financial globalisation on credit dynamics. In particular, it argues that financial globalisation fundamentally alters credit demand and credit supply, since borrowers and lenders have foreign options as well as domestic options in terms of the selection of projects and funding sources. The rapid accumulation of lar...

We investigate the behaviour of gross capital flows and net capital flows for euro area member countries. We highlight the extraordinary boom-bust cycles in both gross flows and net flows since 2003. We also show that the reversal in net capital flows during the crisis has been very costly in terms of macroeconomic and financial outcomes for the hi...

The global financial crisis provides an important testing ground for the financial globalisation model. We ask three questions. First, did financial globalisation materially contribute to the origination of the global financial crisis? Second, once the crisis occurred, how did financial globalisation affect the incidence and propagation of the cris...

This paper provides an overview of the cyclical conduct of fiscal policy in Ireland both before and during the crisis. It shows that fiscal policy has been procyclical, with financial shocks amplifying the fiscal cycle. In addition, it highlights the importance of institutional reform and outlines the case for a formal fiscal framework.

The origin and propagation of the European sovereign debt crisis can be attributed to the flawed original design of the euro. In particular, there was an incomplete understanding of the fragility of a monetary union under crisis conditions, especially in the absence of banking union and other European-level buffer mechanisms. Moreover, the inherent...

The origin and propagation of the European sovereign debt crisis can be attributed to the flawed original design of the euro. In particular, there was an incomplete understanding of the fragility of a monetary union under crisis conditions, especially in the absence of banking union and other European-level buffer mechanisms. Moreover, the inherent...

No abstract available.

For an economy with open capital markets, it is well understood that monetary policy is constrained by the choice of exchange rate regime. This chapter provides an overview of the relationship between exchange rate regimes and monetary policy rules. For a small open economy, the restrictions imposed on monetary policy by different types of fixed ex...

This paper assesses the extent to which debt overhang poses a constraint to economic activity in Emerging Europe, as the region emerges from the recent financial and economic crisis. At the macroeconomic level, it finds that the external imbalance problem for Emerging Europe has been in most cases more one of flows (high current account deficits in...

After widening substantially in the period preceding the global financial crisis, current account imbalances across the world have contracted to a significant extent. This paper analyzes the factors underlying this process of external adjustment. It finds that countries whose pre-crisis current account balances were in excess of what could be expla...

There is a huge literature on the behaviour of fiscal variables in relation to the output cycle. In this paper, we show that fiscal variables also co-vary with the financial cycle, as captured by fluctuations in the current account balance and credit growth. These financial factors affect fiscal outcomes, over and above their influence on the outpu...

This paper argues that large external imbalances pose significant macroeconomic risks for New Zealand. While New Zealand has coped well in recent years, the global financial crisis has underlined the vulnerability of deficit countries to financial shocks. New Zealand can draw important lessons from the global crisis by adjusting its macro-economic...

We document and assess the role of small financial centres in the international financial system using a newly assembled data set. We present estimates of the foreign asset and liability positions for a number of the most important small financial centres and place these into context by calculating the importance of these locations in the global ag...

Introduction Ireland is in the midst of a severe crisis. While the global financial crisis has affected all economies to varying degrees, it has been especially severe in Ireland with a cumulative nominal GDP decline of 21 per cent from 2007Q4 to 2010Q3. This ranks Ireland among the worst-affected countries in terms of output performance during thi...

There has been considerable bilateral variation in the pattern of portfolio capital flows during the global financial crisis: for a given destination, investors from different countries adjusted their holdings to different degrees. We show that the size of the initial bilateral holding, geographical distance, common language, the level of trade and...

Understanding the role of banks in cross-border finance has become an urgent priority after the recent crisis where they played a central role. This report argues that policy reforms in micro-and macro-prudential regulation and macroeconomic policies are needed for Europe to reap the important diversification and efficiency benefits from cross-bord...

Ireland's net external liability position expanded in dramatic fashion during 2008-2010, despite relatively small net …nancial ows during this period. Understanding the the source and persistence of this negative shock is critically important in assess-ing the future path for the Irish economy. However, data analysis is made di¢ cult by the confoun...

We examine whether the cross-country incidence and severity of the 2008-2009 global recession is systematically related to pre-crisis macroeconomic and financial factors. We find that the pre-crisis level of development, increases in the ratio of private credit to GDP, current account deficits, and openness to trade are helpful in understanding the...

We examine the cross-country dispersion in fiscal outcomes during 2007-2009. In principle, international differences in fiscal policy may be related to differences in optimal fiscal positions, funding constraints, political economy factors and fiscal control problems. We find that the decline in the overall and structural fiscal balances have been...

Ireland has participated in two currency unions-a bilateral union with the UK that lasted until 1979 and as a founder member of European Monetary Union (EMU) that began in 1999. This article investigates whether currency unions have influenced Irish trade patterns.

The international financial crisis manifests itself in Ireland not only as a crisis of the banking system, but also as a major fiscal crisis, aggravated by years of soft revenue policy and a housing bubble that has burst spectacularly. The severe drop in economic output results in a crisis of employment and a definitive end to the ‘Celtic Tiger’ er...

This note documents and assesses the role of small financial centers in the international financial system using a newly-assembled dataset. It presents estimates of the foreign asset and liability positions for a number of the most important small financial centers, and places these into context by calculating the importance of these locations in t...

Innovation and Financial Globalization This paper examines the links between international financial integration and the level of innovation activity. If financial globalization boosts innovation, this helps to explain the empirical evidence indicating that increased financial integration conditionally raises the level of productivity and long-run...

Pro-cyclicality in Irish fiscal policy has contributed to macroeconomic volatility over recent decades. Accordingly, this paper seeks to identify institutional mechanisms that can improve the performance of fiscal policy in macroeconomic stabilisation in Ireland. We propose a new fiscal framework for Ireland that combines the adoption of a rules-ba...

In this paper we examine shifts in the bilateral patterns in international portfolio holdings in emerging Europe during the 2001-2008 period. In relation to the 2001-2007 pre-crisis period, we find some evidence that shifts in the geographical composition of portfolio debt liabilities reflect shifts in bilateral trade patterns. In addition, we find...

We study the short-run effects of shocks to government spending on Ireland’s output and its real exchange rate. We show that the impact of government spending shocks critically depend on the nature of the fiscal innovation. Our main finding is that there are important differences between shocks to public investment and shocks to government consumpt...

Our goal in this paper is to investigate the relation between government spending and the long-run behaviour of the Irish real exchange rate. We postulate that an increase in government consumption should be associated with real appreciation, while the impact of government investment is ambiguous. Empirically, we find that an increase in government...

The deterioration in the U.S. net external position in recent years has been much smaller than the extensive net borrowing associated with large current account deficits would have suggested. This paper examines the sources of discrepancies between net borrowing and accumulation of net liabilities for the U.S. economy over the past 25 years. In par...

The international financial crisis manifests itself in Ireland not only as a crisis of the banking system, but also as a major fiscal crisis, aggravated by years of soft revenue policy and a housing bubble that has burst spectacularly. The severe drop in economic output results in a crisis of employment and a definitive end to the ‘Celtic Tiger’ er...

Since 1980, Japan has experienced a boom-bust-recovery cycle in its level of in-ternational financial integration that resembles the shifts in its domestic economic activity. Accordingly, we investigate the links between international financial inte-gration and Japanese macroeconomic performance. In addition to formal tests of the impact of interna...

The current crisis calls for a re-assessment of the optimal conduct of macroeconomic policies during non-crisis normal times. In particular, the risk and costs of crises can be mitigated by macroeconomic policies that lean against the wind in the face of cyclical, sectoral and external shocks. In this paper, I discuss the challenges involved in dep...

This essay addresses the macroeconomics of international financial integration from a European perspective. We first analyse the role of international financial integration in promoting economic convergence among members of the European Union. Next, we analyse the implications of increasing financial linkages, both within Europe and between Europe...

We quantify the role of the extensive margin in the recent trade dynamics of selected countries that are running large and persistent trade imbalances. We find that the role of the extensive margin is quite substantial, although it varies in significance across the countries in the sample. Finally, we highlight differences in behaviour between the...

We show that the composition of government spending influences the long-run behavior of the real exchange rate. We develop a two-sector small open-economy model in which an increase in government consumption is associated with real appreciation, while an increase in government investment may generate real depreciation. Our empirical work confirms t...

A major focus of the recent literature on the determination of optimal portfolios in open-economy macroeconomic models has been on the role of currency movements in determining portfolio returns that may hedge various macroeconomic shocks. However, there is little empirical evidence on the foreign currency exposures that are embedded in internation...

We provide a systematic analysis of bilateral, source and host factors driving portfolio equity investment across countries, using newly-released data on international equity holdings at the end of 2001. We develop a model that links bilateral equity holdings to bilateral trade in goods and services and find that the data strongly support such a co...

We provide a brief review and analysis of recent trends in international financial integration. In particular, we highlight the asymmetric nature of financial globalization, with the scale of cross-border positions among the advanced economies growing more quickly than for emerging market economies and developing countries. We investigate the sourc...

The international financial crisis manifests itself in Ireland not only as a crisis of the banking system, but also as a major fiscal crisis, aggravated by years of soft revenue policy and a housing bubble that has burst spectacularly. The severe drop in economic output results in a crisis of employment and a definitive end to the ‘Celtic Tiger’ er...

Introduction This paper addresses the dynamics of the Swedish external position, with a particular focus on its inter-relation with the external value of the krona. Materials and methods We argue that financial globalisation means that a broader conceptual framework is required, whereby exchange rate fluctuations operate through the ‘valuation chan...

We construct estimates of external assets and liabilities for 145 countries for 1970–2004. We describe our estimation methods and key features of the data at the country and global level. We focus on trends in net and gross external positions, and the composition of international portfolios. We document the increasing importance of equity financing...

In order to gain a better empirical understanding of the international financial implications of currency movements, we construct a database of international currency exposures for a large panel of countries over 1990-2004. We show that trade-weighted exchange rate indices are insufficient to understand the financial impact of currency movements an...

This paper reviews the Irish disinflation of 1979-86 and the subsequent success in maintaining a low and stable average inflation rate. Joining the German-led EMS in 1979 broke a 153-year link with Sterling and hence is an example of a country switching nominal anchors in order to disinflate. Reducing inflation was made more difficult by a parallel...

This chapter explores the increased dispersion in net external positions in recent years, particularly among industrial countries. Return differentials between external assets and liabilities can potentially exert significant impacts on the dynamics of net foreign assets. There is some evidence that a shift in returns is connected with a subsequent...

Although still relatively closed, the Euro area economy is nevertheless subject to a broad range of economic impacts originating from outside its borders. This book aims to improve our understanding of how, and to what extent, such external developments affect the Euro area. Using a broad range of methodologies and techniques, the chapters analyse...

What determines the composition of external liabilities, both across countries and over time? More specifically, which countries account for the massive increase in equity-like liabilities (foreign direct investment and portfolio equity), especially since the mid 1990s? The empirical analysis draws on the newly released ``External Wealth of Nations...

Although Europe in the aggregate is not a major contributor to global current account imbalances, its trade and financial linkages with the rest of the world mean that it will still be affected by a shift in the current configuration of external deficits and surpluses. We assess the macroeconomic impact on Europe of global current account adjustmen...

This paper addresses the dynamics of the Swedish external position, with a particular focus on its inter-relation with the external value of the krona. We argue that financial globalisation means that a broader conceptual framework is required, whereby exchange rate fluctuations operate through the "valuation channel" of external adjustment, in add...

Three main features characterize the international financial integration of China and India. First, while only having a small global share of privately-held external assets and liabilities, these countries are large holders of official reserves. Second, their international balance sheets are highly asymmetric: both are “short equity, long debt.â€...

The goal of this chapter is to provide a quantitative review of the impact of European Monetary Union (EMU) on international financial integration. The degree of financial-market integration can be measured along several different dimensions and there is no widespread agreement about a single correct measure (Adam et al., 2001; Baele et al., 2004)....

I modify the uniform-price auction rules in allowing the seller to ration bidders. This allows me to provide a strategic foundation for underpricing when the seller has an interest in ownership dispersion. Moreover, many of the so-called "collusive-seeming" equilibria disappear.

Three main features characterize the international financial integration of China and India. First, while only having a small global share of privately-held external assets and liabilities (with the exception of China’s FDI liabilities), these countries are large holders of official reserves. Second, their international balance sheets are highly as...

We examine the evolution of the external position in CEE countries over the past decade, with a strong emphasis on the composition of the international balance sheet. We assess the extent of their international financial integration, in comparison to the advanced economies and other emerging markets, and highlight the most salient features of their...

We explore the impact of European monetary union on the economies of the member countries. Inflation differentials across the euro area have been persistent, such that cumulative real exchange rate movements across the euro area have been quite substantial. The adoption of the euro has indeed contributed to greater economic integration; however, ec...

We provide a quantitative analysis of the impact of the euro on European financial integration. We consider both volume- and price-based indicators. In general, we find evidence that common membership of the euro area strengthens bilateral financial linkages. However, we emphasize that EMU has only been one innovation driving European financial int...

This paper addresses the implications of financial globalization for exchange rate behavior. We highlight two dimensions: first, a wider dispersion in net foreign asset positions implies stronger long-term trends in real exchange rates; second, the impact of currency movements on net external wealth is an increasing function of the scale of interna...

We construct estimates of external assets and liabilities for over 140 countries over the period 1970-2004. We describe our estimation methods and present some key features of the data, both at the country and at the global level. We focus in particular on trends in net and gross external positions, as well as on the composition of international po...

We compare alternative monetary policies for an emerging market economy that experiences external shocks to interest rates and the terms of trade. Financial frictions magnify volatility but do not affect the ranking of alternative policy rules. In contrast, the degree of exchange rate pass-through is critical for the assessment of monetary rules. W...

This paper examines the bilateral composition of international bond portfolios for the euro area and the individual EMU member countries. I find considerable support for euroarea bias: EMU member countries disproportionately invest in one another relative to other country pairs. Another striking pattern is the positive connection between trade link...

The paper highlights the increased dispersion in net external positions in recent years, particularly among industrial countries. It provides a simple accounting framework that disentangles the factors driving the accumulation of external assets and liabilities (such as trade imbalances, investment income flows, and capital gains) for major externa...

We provide a systematic analysis of bilateral, source and host factors driving portfolio equity investment by euro-area countries, using newly-released data on international equity holdings at the end of 2001. We find that bilateral equity holdings are strongly linked to bilateral trade in goods and services and are also associated with proxies for...

We examine the evolution of the external position in CEE countries over the past decade, with a strong emphasis on the composition of the international balance sheet. We assess the extent of their international financial integration, in comparison to the advanced economies and other emerging markets, and highlight the most salient features of their...

This study analyzes the effects of right-wing extremism on the well-being of immigrants based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for the years 1984 to 2006 merged with state-level information on election outcomes. The results show that the life satisfaction of immigrants is significantly reduced if right-wing extremism in the nativ...

In this paper, I review recent trends in global integration of financial systems and assess the implications for international macroeconomic adjustment. While recent growth in the scale of international balance sheets has been dramatic, product markets remain quite segmented. The mis-match between financial and real integration means that the role...

This paper compares alternative monetary policy rules in a model of an emerging market economy that experiences external shocks to world interest rates and the terms of trade. The model is a two-sector dynamic open economy, with endogenous capital accumulation and slow price adjustment. Two key factors are highlighted in examining the response of t...

The founders of the Bretton Woods System sixty years ago were primarily concerned with orderly exchange rate adjustment in a world economy that was characterized by widespread restrictions on international capital mobility. In contrast, the rapid pace of financial globalization during recent years poses new challenges for the international monetary...