Philip A Ebert

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• Doctor of Philosophy
• Professor (Full) at University of Stirling

The notion of risk plays a central role in economics, finance, health, psychology, law and elsewhere, and is prevalent in managing challenges and resources in day‐to‐day life. In recent work, Duncan Pritchard (2015, 2016) has argued against the orthodox probabilistic conception of risk on which the risk of a hypothetical scenario is determined by h...

We investigate Scottish end users' and professional forecasters' risk perception in relation to the 5‐point European Avalanche Danger Scale by eliciting numerical estimates of the probability of triggering an avalanche. Our main findings are that neither end users nor professional forecasters interpret the avalanche danger scale as intended, that i...

Since the 1970’s there has been a major increase in adventure sports participation but it seems that engagement in such sports comes with a stigma: adventure sports participants are often regarded as reckless ‘daredevils’. We approach the questions about people’s perception of risk and recklessness in adventure sports by combining empirical researc...

We investigate differences in perceived danger and recklessness judgements by experts (experienced skiers, N=362) and laypeople (N=2080) about participation in adventure sports across the same judgemental task using a third person perspective. We investigate the relationship between danger and recklessness and the extent to which fatality frequency...

There are distinctive methodological and conceptual challenges in rare and severe event (RSE) forecast verification, that is, in the assessment of the quality of forecasts of rare but severe natural hazards such as avalanches, landslides or tornadoes. While some of these challenges have been discussed since the inception of the discipline in the 18...

In this study, we investigate Scottish end users' understanding and interpretation of the five point European Avalanche Danger Scale. Our main findings are, first, that many end users report to draw on detailed avalanche information including the avalanche problem information in their planning. Second, only seven in ten end users are aware that the...

Fundierte Fehleranalyse Die interventionelle Neuroradiologie ist eine dynamische Disziplin mit innovativen Lösungen und expandierenden Therapieansätzen. Fehler bei Neurointerventionen sind unvermeidbar und oft schwerwiegend – daher ist eine klare Fehlerdefinition wichtig, um Ursachen zu identifizieren und Massnahmen zu ergreifen.

Die Lawinengefahr richtig einzuschätzen und die entsprechenden Entscheidungen zu fällen, gehört zum Schwierigsten und Wichtig-sten im Bergsport überhaupt. Es gibt so viele Unbekannte: Wie störanfällig ist die Schwachschicht? Wo ist sie genau vorhanden? Haben wir ausreichend Hinweise gesammelt? Was wären die Kon-sequenzen bei einer Lawinenerfassung?...

The report provides a summary of the main findings of a survey run in 2021 of users of the Scottish Avalanche Information Service. The findings cover the following topics: A. General summary and main findings B. SAIS survey respondents’ profile and avalanche knowledge C. SAIS survey respondents’ familiarity with SAIS reports D. SAIS survey r...

Avalanche studies have undergone a transition in recent years. Early research focused mainly on environmental factors. More recently, attention has turned to human factors in decision making, such as behavioural and cognitive biases. This article adds a social component to this human turn in avalanche studies. It identifies lessons for decision mak...

There are distinctive methodological and conceptual challenges in rare and severe event (RSE) forecast-verification, that is, in the assessment of the quality of forecasts involving natural hazards such as avalanches or tornadoes. While some of these challenges have been discussed since the inception of the discipline in the 1880s, there is no cons...

The volume is the first collection of essays that focuses on Gottlob Frege's Basic Laws of Arithmetic (1893/1903), highlighting both the technical and the philosophical richness of Frege's magnum opus. It brings together twenty-two renowned Frege scholars whose contributions discuss a wide range of topics arising from both volumes of Basic Laws of...

We discuss a passage from Grundgesetze der Arithmetik that raises doubts regarding Frege’s attitude towards platonism. First, we motivate a platonist interpretation of Frege’s mature philosophy of mathematics and outline his conception of the aims of definition. We then present the passage which prima facie raises doubts about a platonist interpret...

Frege’s Grundgesetze der Arithmetik received four short reviews during his lifetime (by H. Courbe, R. Hoppe, C. Th. Michaëlis, and C. Faerber) and a longer critical discussion by G. Peano. We present an introductory essay and English translations of these five pieces.

In this paper, I explore a Bayesian perspective on avalanche decision-making. I motivate this general outlook by introducing a well-known cognitive bias, the base-rate fallacy, and show how a similar pattern applies to decision-making in avalanche-terrain when assessing the relevance of stability tests. I then present three theoretical lessons that...

In this article, I explore a Bayesian approach to avalanche decision-making. I motivate this perspective by highlighting a version of the base-rate fallacy and show that a similar pattern applies to decision-making in avalanche-terrain. I then draw out three theoretical lessons from adopting a Bayesian approach and discuss these lessons critically....

In this paper, we present the results of two surveys that investigate subjects’ judgments about what can be known or justifiably believed about lottery outcomes on the basis of statistical evidence, testimonial evidence, and “mixed” evidence, while considering possible anchoring and priming effects. We discuss these results in light of seven distin...

Knowledge worker productivity is essential for competitive strength in the digital century. Small interventions based on insights from behavioural science makes it possible for knowledge workers to be more productive. In this point of view article, we outline and discuss a new management style which we label nudge management.

This paper discusses Michael Dummett’s criticism of the Neo-Fregean conception of the context principle. I will present four arguments by Dummett that purport to show that the context principle is incompatible with platonism. I discuss and ultimately reject each argument. I will close this paper by identifying what I take to be a deep rooted tensio...

The paper challenges a widely held interpretation of Frege's conception of logic on which the constituent clauses of basic law V have the same sense. I argue against this interpretation by first carefully looking at the development of Frege's thoughts in Grundlagen with respect to the status of abstraction principles. In doing so, I put forth a new...

We discuss the typography of the notation used by Gottlob Frege in his Grundgesetze der Arithmetik .

Backcountry skiing requires us to make decisions in an inherently uncertain environment with possibly fatal consequences. However, skills and competences to recognize and avoid the possible dangers in avalanche terrain can help to reduce these dangers and render the residual risk “acceptable.” Also, there is a sense in which to be a responsible bac...

In this paper, we will discuss how competence can affect a person’s ability to avoid avalanches and present a way of modelling such competence. Given that the prior probability of getting caught in avalanches is fairly low for any skier (competent or not), we draw some consequences from the model using Bayes’ theorem for “everyday” situations.

Mountaineering is a dangerous activity. For many mountaineers, part of its very attraction is the risk, the thrill of danger. Yet mountaineers are often regarded as reckless or even irresponsible for risking their lives. In this paper, we offer a defence of risk-taking in mountaineering. Our discussion is organised around the fact that mountaineers...

What is Self-Sufficiency?The Value of Self-SufficiencyObjectionsConcluding RemarksNotes

In 1885, Georg Cantor published his review of Gottlob Frege's Grundlagen der Arithmetik. In this essay, we provide its first English translation together with an introductory note. We also provide a translation of a note by Ernst Zermelo on Cantor's review, and a new translation of Frege's brief response to Cantor. In recent years, it has become ph...

This paper discusses the neo-logicist approach to the foundations of mathematics by highlighting an issue that arises from looking at the Bad Company objection from an epistemological perspective. For the most part, our issue is independent of the details of any resolution of the Bad Company objection and, as we will show, it concerns other foundat...

This paper raises and then discusses a puzzle concerning the ontological commitments of mathematical principles. The main focus here is Hume's Principle—a statement that, embedded in second-order logic, allows for a deduction of the second-order Peano axioms. The puzzle aims to put pressure on so-called epistemic rejectionism, a position that rejec...

In this paper I will argue that Boghossian’s explanation of how we can acquire a priori knowledge of logical principles through implicit definitions commits a transmission of warrant-failure. To this end, I will briefly outline Boghossian’s account, followed by an explanation of what a transmission of warrant-failure consists in. I will also show tha...

In this paper we outline and discuss various solutions to a restricted, but we think, more interesting version of the infamous Caesar Problem. This restricted version, labelled the C-R Problem, occurs in contexts where we have two distinct abstraction principles:and want to settle cross-sortal identity claims of the form:Both abstraction principles...

In this paper we outline and discuss various solutions to a restricted, but we think, more interesting version of the infamous Caesar Problem . This restricted version, labelled the C-R Problem , occurs in contexts where we have two distinct abstraction principles: and want to settle cross-sortal identity claims of the form: Both abstraction princi...

No abstract available.

In this paper we examine a recent version of an old controversy within climbing ethics. Our organising topic is the ‘bolting’ of climbing routes, in particular the increasing bolting of routes in those wilderness areas climbing traditionalists have customarily believed should remain bolt-free. The issues this raises extend beyond the ethical, howev...