P.H.A.J.M. Van Gelder

P.H.A.J.M. Van Gelder
Delft University of Technology | TU · Department of Values and Technology

Prof. dr. ir.

About

426
Publications
229,729
Reads
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6,405
Citations
Citations since 2016
154 Research Items
4133 Citations
20162017201820192020202120220200400600800
20162017201820192020202120220200400600800
20162017201820192020202120220200400600800
20162017201820192020202120220200400600800
Introduction
Prof. dr. ir. P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder is Professor of Safety Science and Head of the TU Delft Safety and Security Science section. His area of research is on developing risk management methodologies for reliable, secure and safe design in socio-technical domains. Van Gelder is based at the Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management of TU Delft.

Publications

Publications (426)
Article
Full-text available
Risk assessment of cascade reservoir dams is not only the key to ensure the safety of the basin, but also the objective requirement of dam risk management. Based on the development status of cascade reservoirs in China, the complexity of dam risk management of cascade reservoirs compared with a single reservoir was analyzed. By reviewing the advanc...
Article
Full-text available
Ship behavior is the semantic expression of corresponding trajectory in spatial-temporal space. The intelligent identification of ship behavior is critical for safety supervision in the waterborne transport. In particular, the complicated behavior reflects the long-term intentions of a ship, but it is challenging to recognize it automatically for c...
Article
When process disturbances occur, workers on the Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM) will need to operate outside safe zones, reducing or eliminating the safety barrier ‘distance’ between them and potential sources of risk. Consequently, disturbances have a higher risk potential than regular TBM operations. By comparing the risks of registered process distu...
Article
Automated vehicles (AVs) aim to dramatically improve traffic safety by reducing or eliminating human error, which remains the leading cause of road crashes. However, commonly accepted standards for the ‘safe driving behaviour of machines’ are pending and urgently needed. Unless a common understanding of safety as a design value is achieved, differe...
Article
Road safety research is largely focused on prediction and prevention of technical, human or organisational failures that may result in critical conflicts or crashes. Indicators of traffic risk aim to capture the passage to unsafe states. However, research in other industries has shown that it is meaningful to analyse safety along the whole spectrum...
Article
When a train passes a red aspect, this is called a Signal Passed at Danger event or SPAD. Sometimes it is easy to identify the SPAD cause but in other cases it is unclear why the incident occurred, especially if the system operated as usual and the train driver was trained and experienced just like his or her colleagues. In previous research, train...
Article
Dam safety monitoring has become an important topic and is critical for evaluating a dam’s safety status. This study focuses on identifying the mechanical properties of a concrete dam from long-term viscoelastic deformation monitoring data. A novel inversion framework is proposed in which a surrogate model, instead of the finite element model, is p...
Article
Full-text available
In response to the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2, many governments decided in 2020 to impose lockdowns on societies. Although the package of measures that constitute such lockdowns differs between countries, it is a general rule that contact between people, especially in large groups of people, is avoided or prohibited. The main reasoning behind these mea...
Article
Collision between ships is one of the major contributors to ship accidents. To facilitate the development of the real-time collision risk analysis model for collision avoidance, in this research, an improved Rule-aware Time-varying Collision risk Model is proposed, which considers the estimation of target ship motion and the corresponding uncertain...
Article
Dam breaches often have catastrophic consequences in downstream areas. Hydrodynamic factors and the evacuation potential of the population at risk (PAR) have significant impacts on the loss of life (LOL) caused by dam breaches. However, the existing comprehensive evaluation models have not conducted in-depth research on the evacuation potential of...
Article
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The river Rhine is one of Europe’s busiest waterways and is part of the Rhine-Alpine corridor. In 2018 the river experienced a severe low discharge extreme. This impacted the river’s transport capacity for a period of several months, causing shortages of source materials and fuels in regions far in-land. Historically, prolonged droughts of this mag...
Preprint
Full-text available
In response to the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 many governments decided in 2020 to impose lockdowns. Although the package of measures which constitute such lockdowns differs between countries, it is a general rule that contacts between people, and especially in large groups of people, are avoided or prohibited. The main reasoning behind these measures i...
Article
Over the next few years, digitalization and automation are expected to be key drivers for maritime transport innovation to be key drivers for maritime transportation innovation. This revolutionary shift in the shipping industry will heavily impact the reliability of the machinery which is intended to be operated remotely with minimum support from h...
Article
Full-text available
The importance of investigating pedestrian safety has been evaluated repeatedly in safety studies. The present study attempts to evaluate the various methods used by previous researchers in a hierarchical process, to determine the characteristics, advantages, and limitations of each method. Two general analysis approaches (passive and active) were...
Article
Full-text available
Water management infrastructures such as floodgates are critical and increasingly operated by Industrial Control Systems (ICS). These systems are becoming more connected to the internet, either directly or through the corporate networks. This makes them vulnerable to cyber-attacks. Abnormal behaviour in floodgates operated by ICS could be caused by...
Article
Grate and curb-opening inlets are part of pavement drainage structure function to discharge excess stormwater runoff on the street. One of the main challenges of these inlets is to effectively discharge the runoff, part of which if not properly controlled would lead to surface ponding on the street and eventually floods. Flood occurrences are mostl...
Article
Despite the proven effectiveness of seatbelt use in reducing traffic casualties, not wearing a seatbelt still contributes to a substantial proportion of fatal crashes worldwide. This problem has raised the need to better understand factors contributing to seatbelt use, particularly in multi-occupant vehicles. Among these factors, behavioural determ...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper, we provide an overview of how Safe-by-Design is conceived and applied in practice in a large number of engineering disciplines. We discuss the differences, commonalities, and possibilities for mutual learning found in those practices and identify several ways of putting those disciplinary outlooks in perspective. The considered engin...
Article
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This paper presents a bibliometric overview of the publications in the principal international journal Process Safety and Environmental Protection (PSEP) from 1990 to 2020 retrieved in the Web of Science (WoS) database to explore the evolution in safety and environmental engineering design and practice, as well as experimental or theoretical innova...
Article
Frequent water traffic accidents pose severe threats to human life and property safety, the water environment, and adverse effects on social stability. Understanding historical accidents is essential for accident prevention and risk mitigation. However, at present, research on the comprehensive statistical analysis of characteristics and causes of...
Article
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Over the last few years, the increasing level of cyber risks derived from the growing connectedness of Industry 4.0 has led to the emergence of blockchain technology as a major innovation in supply chain cybersecurity. The main purpose of this study is to identify and rank the significant barriers affecting the implementation of blockchain technolo...
Article
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In 2017, the Journal of Integrated Security Science was founded at the Safety and Security Science section at Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands. Now, in 2021, we are happy to announce that we are rebranding the journal by taking it into an adjusted thematic and theoretical avenue: with a new journal name, a revised scope and updated e...
Article
Offshore wind power is an important renewable energy source and plays an essential role in optimizing the energy structure worldwide. Simultaneously, offshore wind turbine (OWT) selection is a complicated process since it concerning various variables and optimization scenarios. In this paper, a novel fuzzy Bayesian network-based model for multiple-...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper, we explore solution directions for the implementation of Safe by Design (SbD) in safety regimes for academic experimentation. SbD is a dynamic and anticipatory strategy for safety regulation in academic research. In this strategy, safety is taken in a broader sense including not only issues of technical precaution of avoiding risks o...
Article
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Employee behavior plays an important role in the occurrence and prevention of incidents, affecting safety margins. In this study, we examine the potential impact of incidental learning on human behavior in the presence of variation in task design. Incidental learning is the day-to-day on-the-job learning that occurs unintentionally. This learning i...
Article
Both hydrodynamic factors and social factors have large impacts on the loss of life caused by dam failure. Relatively large uncertainty intervals of the influencing factors lead to changes in the potential loss of life. Based on an analysis of the formation mechanism of loss of life, the influencing factors were identified. Combined with interval t...
Article
Background Although many studies have been conducted on the safety of pedestrian crossings, few researches have been focused on drivers' behavior in unmarked crosswalk and marked crosswalk areas. Considering that statistics of pedestrian accidents are not the same in the two types of crossing area, based on the last report of the World Health Organ...
Article
Spillways are essential parts of dams, in which the main task of these structures is to allow the passing of excess water and floods from the upstream to the downstream. In this regards, the main goal of this paper is proposing a novel framework for the probabilistic design of labyrinth spillway structures using a new developed reliability-based de...
Article
Full-text available
Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) attract increasing attention in recent years. Researchers aim at developing fully autonomous systems that replace the role of human operators. Studies either focus on supporting conflict/collision detection (for manned ships) or solving conflict automatically (for unmanned ships). The cooperation between hum...
Article
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The Pearl River estuary is an ecologically dynamic region located in southern China that experiences strong gradients in its biogeochemical properties. This study examined the seasonality of nutrient dynamics, identified related environmental responses, and evaluated how river discharge regulated nutrient sink and source. The field investigation sh...
Article
Full-text available
In this research, a hybrid approach for global path planning for Maritime Autonomous Surface Ship (MASS) is proposed, which generates the shortest path considering the collision risk and the proximity between path and obstacles. The collision risk concerning obstacles is obtained using Time-Varying Collision Risk (TCR) concept, taking into account...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Many Collision Avoidance Systems (CAS) for autonomous ships usually presume that a ship's dynamics are completely known in advance. However, precise parameters for ships in different operating conditions are, in fact, uncertain and unknown. The parameter identification of ship dynamics is challenging and time-consuming. Thus, uncertainties in the s...
Article
Full-text available
Homicide investigators in the digital era have access to an increasing amount of data and the processing of all persons of interest and pieces of evidence has become nearly impossible. This paper describes the development and evaluation of a case-specific element library (C-SEL) that can be used to incorporate and prioritize persons of interest in...
Article
The water level fluctuations in the upper reach of dam reservoirs may result in increasing occurrence probabilities of ship grounding accidents, which is especially prominent in the Three Gorges Reservoir. Grounding accidents may not only cause congestion of the traffic but also lead to loss of properties and pollution to the maritime environment....
Article
As the main way for the long-distance transportation of refined products, multi-products pipelines are of vital importance to the regional energy security. The supply reliability evaluation of multi-product pipeline systems can improve the effective response to unexpected disruptions and guarantee the reliable oil supply. Based on reliability theor...
Article
Full-text available
Collision risk assessment is essential for supporting collision avoidance, which is the core of various collision alert/avoidance systems. One main task of the systems is setting off alarms for taking evasive actions. The alarms need to be triggered before the conflict has no collision-free solution. However, most of existing collision risk measure...
Article
Full-text available
Design and operationalization for Search and Rescue (SAR) activities are unstructured and complex multi-criteria decision-making problems, especially for maritime emergency scenario. There is a lack of decision support methods based on intelligent algorithms to shorten the response time and to reduce the loss of life and property. The primary purpo...
Article
Full-text available
The probabilistic analysis on condition monitoring data has been widely established through the energy supply process to specify the optimum risk remediation program. In such studies, the fluctuations and uncertainties of the operational data including the variability between source of data and the correlation of observations, have to be incorporat...
Article
Full-text available
Because of the uncertainty regarding the potential loss of life, it is difficult to use societal life risk criteria for dams established based on existing methods and the related research. Based on existing dam safety standards, dam safety conditions, and the opinions of the public on dam risks, an innovative methodology, i.e. P–P curve, was propos...
Article
Full-text available
This paper presents an attempts towards creation of generalized models of ships manoeuvring area determination and ship performance created on the base of real simulation results. Those models are needed for better understanding of the safe navigation process in ports areas and its approaches and for risk analysis when no full information about the...
Article
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Based on a monthly field survey in 2011 of the Pearl River Estuary, the dynamics of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in surface sediments (depth < 5 cm) were explored. The seasonal variations in PAH level and composition were investigated in this study, as well as their environmental behaviors, the role of particles, and source apportionment...
Article
Full-text available
Cyberattacks against healthcare institutions threaten patient care. The risk of being targeted by a damaging attack is increased when medical devices are used which rely on unmaintained legacy software that cannot be replaced and may have publicly known vulnerabilities. This review aims to provide insight into solutions presented in the literature...
Article
Based on field efforts in Lake IJssel (the Netherlands) from 2000 to 2010, dynamics of 15 priority PAHs in suspended particulate matter (SPM) and in seawater were determined. This study examined time‐varying changes in PAH concentration and composition, apportioned potential anthropogenic sources, and quantified their linkages to hydrological facto...
Article
When a dam breaks, huge floods will be generated that may inundate urban areas, enterprises, farmlands, and infrastructure and cause giant economic losses. Economic risk criteria are a kind of basis for determining dam risk levels and to decide whether risk control measures should be taken or not. However, compared to loss-of-life risk criteria, mu...
Article
Sand nourishments are increasingly applied as adaptive coastal protection measures. Predictions of the evolution of these nourishments and their impact on the surrounding coastline contain many uncertainties. The sources that add to this uncertainty can be delineated between intrinsic and epistemic uncertainty, i.e. inevitably in the system or rela...
Article
Tubing is part of a typical vertical well system which functions to transport hydrocarbon from the producing formations to the field surface facilities for processing. With its exposure to the harsh sandstone reservoir environment, erosion is likely to be present in the tubing. Regardless of this, the existing burst design models have not considere...
Preprint
Full-text available
Collision prevention is critical for navigation safety at sea. At early ages, researchers aimed at developing navigational assistance systems for enhancing situational awareness of human operators as human is at the core of collision avoidance. Recently, autonomous vehicles have gained a remarkable amount of attention with a focus on solving collis...
Article
Full-text available
Many Collision Avoidance Systems (CAS) for autonomous ships usually presume that a ship’s dynamics are completely known in advance. However, precise parameters for ships in different operating conditions are, in fact, uncertain and unknown. The parameter identification of ship dynamics is challenging and time-consuming. Thus, uncertainties in the s...
Article
Full-text available
The maritime shipping industry has been making significant contributions to the development of the regional and global economy. However, maritime accidents and their severe consequences have been posing an incrementing risk to the individuals and societies. It is therefore important to conduct risk analysis on such accidents to support maritime saf...
Article
Full-text available
Collision risk measurement is an essential topic for ship collision prevention. Many risk measures, i.e. DCPA/TCPA, etc., decouple the ship traffic into several pairs of ships and then evaluate the risk in each pair. This kind of measurement loses some information of the entire traffic and might include some biases in risk measurement, especially i...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Bayesian networks are proposed as a tool to integrate reliability and influential variables relating to the slope stability of an idealized embankment. The site investigation (extent) and slope geometry, as well as the material properties and their spatial variability, are considered within a Bayesian network. The random finite element method (RFEM...
Conference Paper
In this paper two Bayesian approaches and a frequency approach are compared on predicting offender output variables based on the input of crime scene and victim variables. The K2 algorithm, Naïve Bayes and frequency approach were trained to make the correct prediction using a database of 233 solved Dutch single offender/single victim homicide cases...
Article
Ship maneuvering decisions are influenced by several factors, and it is essential to prioritize the main influencing factors for efficient selection of the corresponding maneuvering decisions. Meanwhile, the autonomous ship maneuvering decision-making influencing factors constitute a typical grey system, which is suitable for research by grey relat...