Petri Tapio

University of Turku | UTU · Finland Futures Research Centre

Increasing utilization of data, enabled by digitalization, constitutes a major driver toward circular economy but is not without potential paradoxical tensions. A two-round disaggregative Delphi study and analysis of the qualitative material generated in it explored these tensions. They were found to cohere around three themes: consumer concurrence...

Increasing the share of walking and cycling is one of the building blocks of sustainable mobility transformation. Fundamental changes are needed in society and urban structure to support the integration of walking and cycling into everyday routines. We conducted an online Delphi study with 30 walking and cycling experts during the first wave of the...

Rapid expansion of digitalization and in the volume of data available constitutes a major driver toward circular economy. In the textile industry, with its vast quantities of waste and huge environmental impact, transformation toward such circularity is necessary but challenging. To explore how the use of data could support building sustainability-...

Sedentary lifestyles and the lack of physical activity (PA) are a major concern among all age groups, and current generations tend to be less fit than the previous ones in the Western World. At the same time, there is an urgent need to cut transport-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Major gains can be foreseen if current car-centred lifestyle...

The emotional outcomes of leisure time physical activity have previously been explored in laboratory experiments. To increase understanding of lived experiences, this paper explores the phenomenon through a qualitative lens, exploring real-life stories of how individuals experience emotions when engaging in leisure time physical activity. To illust...

Recent research has recognised cycling and walking (active transport) as substantial elements contributing to sustainable mobility and public health challenges. There is less knowledge available on the integrated contributions of local-level governance processes and practical implementation of active transport promotion activities. To illustrate co...

At many levels of society—in regions, corporations, and among citizens—awareness is increasing, and actions towards more sustainable energy are being taken. The key drivers of this transition have been climate change, the scarcity of resources, and environmental consciousness. The speed of change and its impacts on the energy system transition are...

There has been a rapid uptake of electric scooter (e-scooter) sharing services in cities in recent years. However, the academic literature is still scarce on how e-scooter operators contribute to sustainable urban mobility through their business models. In this qualitative case study, we analyse the sustainability of these rapidly evolving sharing...

Diverse physical features of urban areas alongside socio-demographic characteristics affect car ownership, and hence the daily mobility choices. As a case of sustainable mobility, we explore how various urban environments and socio-demographics associate with the spatial and social distribution of household car ownership and carlessness in the Hels...

This study explores the desired future images of an inclusive school. In its policy documents, Finland has been committed to goals of inclusive education for decades; however, there are still challenges in its implementation. By utilising futures workshops, our research explores the factors envisioned by special education teacher students regarding...

Societal debates are often constructed through dichotomies influenced by various factors such as cognitive capabilities of individuals, culturally shaped valuation processes, underlying societal struggles for power and prestige, economic competition, technological changes or lock-ins and operation logic of the media and social media. Debates over e...

This article focuses on a key framework of sustainability transition studies, the multi-level perspective on socio-technical transitions (MLP), and its potential and relationships with futures studies. We propose that there are various co-benefits in creating convergence between the two fields of study. Out of established frameworks in sustainabili...

This study explored individuals’ engagement in the sustainable energy transition in Finland. Using the attitude-behaviour-context model (Guagnano et al., 1995) and Stern’s (2000) typology of environmentally significant behaviours, this study tested the assumption that individuals’ engagement in transition is a combination of socio-psychological and...

Suomalaiset liikkuvat liian vähän. Esimerkiksi vain noin kolmasosa lapsista ja nuorista liikkuu riittävästi oman terveytensä näkökulmasta. Erityisesti arkiliikunta on vähentynyt, kun lyhyitäkin matkoja kuljetaan kävelyn tai polkupyöräilyn sijaan autoilla. Tämä johtaa myös suureen ympäristökuormitukseen. Katsauksemme perusväite on, että luontopohjai...

The future of the energy system in many countries is characterised by a balance between centralised and distributed systems. Besides producing food, farms possess biomass and open space suitable for renewable energy (RE) production. This paper presents the agricultural, farm-level opportunities for fostering RE business in Finland. The timeframe fo...

Achieving a sustainable energy transition is crucial for mitigating climate change. Citizens’ acceptance of the transition is important for it to succeed. We explored citizens’ images of the future energy forms and energy system in Finland, and the drivers of a sustainable energy transition. The data gathered with an online questionnaire targeting...

The purpose of this article is to review the futures studies activities performed in Finland, focusing especially on Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC). The activities include research, education as well as societal interaction and networking. The FFRC has proceeded from a small unit of three devoted persons in 1992 to one of the key futures re...

The future of businesses is not only orchestrated by emerging trends and megatrends but also to a greater extent struck by surprising events. With the accelerating presence of high-tech innovations and smart technologies, business activities are exposed to an increasingly volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous environment. Any unexpected chang...

The history and future of the restoration efforts at the hypereutrophic southern Finnish lake, Tuusulanjarvi, are investigated. The interdisciplinary study is conducted within a modified DPSIR-framework, which allows us to both trace back and envision the future of the dynamics of the complex socio-ecological processes involved in restoration. The...

In the age of climate change, the demand and lack of pure water challenges many communities. Substantial amount of effort is put in every year to manage and restore degraded lakes while the long-term effects of those efforts are only poorly known or monitored. Oxygenation, or aeration, is used extensively for the restoration of eutrophic lakes, alt...

Images of the future represent fears, hopes and anticipations humans have for the future. Understanding the images of the future of young people provides a beneficial source of information not only about their probable future actions but also about their current motivations, decisions and choices. This article describes the procedure of exploring t...

The freshwaters of the world are facing enormous pressures and demands. Eutrophication is a widespread problem threatening the biodiversity and usability of waters. Unfortunately, the means to alleviate eutrophication are either difficult to realize, inefficient, or effective only on the short-term. In addition, the use of various means is laden wi...

Variations of internal phosphorus (P) loading and water quality in the hypertrophic Lake Tuusulanjärvi (southern Finland) were studied over a period covering 40 years (1970–2010). The lake has hosted numerous different management efforts. Diversion of sewage waters away from the lake in 1979 resulted in a considerable reduction of external P loadin...

With present-day scientific evidence challenging the efficiency of artificial aeration as an effective restoration method for eutrophicated lakes, our sociohistorical investigation traces the reasons for the persistent support for this method in Finland, where about one hundred lakes are subject to this treatment. Our study employed the concepts of...

The American Dream is a well-researched concept, but what would be its equivalent for Mexico? We investigate the Mexican Dream for young adults (25 to 35 year old Mexicans). The aim of the study is to develop an understanding of the core values of young Mexican adults reflected in their consumer behavior in the financial sector. We implement a cros...

As modern societies are moving to the bio-economy era the energy solutions of enterprises are becoming increasingly important. In this paper we study the energy futures of farms up to 2030. A two-rounded mixed Delphi study combining qualitative and quantitative data was carried out to gather the views of experts within agriculture, as well as clima...

The climate and energy strategy of the European Union presents the aims for all economic sectors to cut carbon dioxide emissions. In this paper, we studied what kind of conflicts, synergies, opportunities and control measures the climate and energy policy brings to farms in Finland. We used the Delphi method to assess possible outcomes of three sce...

Global environmental challenges require changes in both the production and the consumption of goods. In this paper we analyse how consumers perceive the high environmental burden of meat. We analysed consumer environmental consciousness, including problem awareness and a support to action dimensions, latter including perceived self-efficacy as well...

The reduction of greenhouse gas emission was the basis of a Delphi study where expert opinions about future development were asked and used to form visions of the future, and further elaborated to scenarios using a pluralistic backcasting method. A new innovative approach on how to use and combine methods and data from various disciplines in scenar...

The concept of degrowth has refuelled the criticism of unchecked economic growth. The purpose of this paper is to identify the central themes of the 21st century growth critique. Qualitative content analysis is conducted for three contemporary classics of the expanding degrowth literature: Peter Victor's Managing without growth: Slower by design, n...

Arising out of human-environment interaction, sustainability problems resist disciplinary categories and simple solutions. This book offers a fresh approach to practical and methodological concerns in transdisciplinary environmental and sustainability studies. It illustrates methodological means by which researchers, professionals, and decision-mak...

Valtioneuvosto antoi vuonna 2011 ministeriöille tehtäväksi valmistella Suomeen aluerakenteen ja liikennejärjestelmän kehityskuvan (ALLI) vuodelle 2050. Kehityskuvaa laaditaan neljän ministeriön – ympäristöministeriö, työ‐ ja elinkeinoministeriö, liikenne‐ ja viestintäministeriö sekä maa‐ ja metsätalousministeriö – yhteistyönä. Kehityskuvassa muodos...

The issue of meat consumption has been a subject of interest that has been looked at from environmental, animal and human perspectives. This paper contributes to the discussion by clarifying the diversity of views with regard to the future of meat consumption. Two round Delphi expert interviews and a consumer survey were conducted in order to colle...

The production of food for consumption produces environmental stress and raises ethical issues. As humans are able to choose different foodstuffs in their diets, food consumption guidance may have large benefits for the environment. Meat consumption is often identified as the most environmentally harmful foodstuff to produce and animal welfare and...

The renewable energy market doubled in the Baltic Sea Region between 1999 and 2010. The trends are especially driven by global climate agreements as well as European Union target shares of renewable energy. The purpose of this article is to make future scenarios of the developing renewable energy system in the Baltic Sea Region up to 2025. Five qua...

Research on the future of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of road freight transport in Finland is reported in this paper. Delphi method is utilized to forecast the changes of GDP and seven indicators which determine the CO2 emissions of road freight. Information about the factors affecting the future of these indicators was also collected and an inn...

The reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) is a highly prevalent public policy goal among European Union member countries. In the new White Paper on transport, the role of roadfreight transports in this is strongly emphasized. This far, however, the efficiencypractices utilised in logistics firms are less studied. Drawing from policy goals and new sur...

Societies are increasingly characterised by increasing mobility of people and materials. Consequently, harmful environmental impacts of transport are likely to increase unless specific policies aimed at mitigating these impacts can be successfully implemented. Based on EU-level requirements for carbon dioxide emission reductions, a car tax reform w...

New information is often emphasized as a basis of effective and scientifically sound environmental policy and management. However, outdated or incorrect information is not automatically nor instantly replaced by new insights. This article focuses on the various ways environmental information can be unintentionally left with insufficient attention o...

This study analyses the strengths, weaknesses and pitfalls encountered when combining qualitative and quantitative information in a Delphi process and when reporting the results as scenarios or images of the future. The paper draws material from seven Disaggregative Policy Delphi processes conducted in Finland in 1999–2008, in which the authors wer...

News coverage of climate change has increased in the English‐speaking industrialised countries since 2005. The development of news coverage, especially in the United States, has been widely studied. Knowledge of the development and contents of climate debate in other languages than English is sparse. This paper presents the development on the press...

In this paper, the potential of bioenergy production in agriculture (preferred and probable futures) is scrutinised using the Delphi method. We present a case of northern possibilities to utilise renewable energy sources within agriculture in a form of alternative bioenergy scenarios. Altogether 20 experts participated in the Delphi process which o...

The purpose of this article is to review interdisciplinary systemic frameworks of environmental protection and evaluate their use as tools, educational policymaking and education. We analyze the pressures-state-responses (PSR) framework of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the drivers-pressures-state-impact-response (DPSIR)...

As a contribution to the definition of environmental science, this article describes an interdisciplinary, problem-oriented approach for studying environmental problems. It can be used both in research and in education. Problem orientation can be expressed in three questions: a) Why are there environmental problems? b) What are their characteristic...

This article compares the development of transport and energy use with a focus on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the EU15 countries between 1960 and 2000, and separately by each individual EU country between 1970 and 2000. Based on a review on the literature, immaterialisation can be defined as the reduction of energy intensity and transport int...

In this article we present a method of constructing ‘soft’ scenarios applied to the wind power development in Finland up to the year 2025. We asked 14 experts to describe probable and preferable futures using a quantitative questionnaire and qualitative interviews. Wind power production grows in all scenarios but there were differences in the order...

Traditionally, the transport literature reflects the view that traffic volumes, road traffic volumes in particular, are coupled with Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Recently published literature also argues that the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from transport, passenger cars in particular, have not shown any decoupling from transport volumes for so...

The decarbonisation of the economy is a well-established international trend in environmental research. Decarbonisation is normally defined as a decreasing carbon intensity of the economy, measured by dividing the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions with the gross domestic product (GDP). The paper compares two aspects of the carbon intensity of the econ...

A critical phase of scenario making is the choosing of scenarios. In the worst case, a futures researcher creates scenarios according to his/her subjective views and cannot see the real quality of the study material. Oversimplification is a typical example of this kind of bias. In this study, an attempt towards a more data sensitive method was made...

A critical phase of scenario making is the choosing of scenarios. In the worst case, a futures researcher creates scenarios according to his/her subjective views and cannot see the real quality of the study material. Oversimplification is a typical example of this kind of bias. In this study, an attempt towards a more data sensitive method was made...

The aim of the article is to present a new typology of paradigms of futures studies with specific focus on decision-making. Possible roles of futurists and other actors in long-term planning and decision-making processes are formed using logical analysis. The resulting seven schools of thought are interpreted in the light of literature of futures s...

The paper contributes a ‘soft’ way of making scenarios for climate policy that takes into account the diverse views of various interest groups. A two-rounded Delphi method is used to produce scenarios for a transport CO2 policy for Finland. Quantitative statements of the interest groups are run with cluster analysis and qualitative arguments for th...

dioxide policy, scenario. Traffic is a sector that has growing problems facing the challenges that the Kyoto protocol suggests for global climate protection. The problems seem to be worsening as well in less developed as in the more developed countries. Europe is no exception in this manner, since the CO2 emissions have increased at the same rate a...

This article continues the discussion of futures research categories. Nine questions are addressed concerning futures research methods, the use of the methods and the role of futures research in planning and decision-making processes from an environmental policy point of view. On the basis of the nine questions, three paradigms are outlined—positiv...

Food consumption produces environmental stress and raises ethical issues. As humans are able to use different foodstuffs in their diets, food consumption guidance may have large benefits to nature. Meat consumption is often identified as the most environmentally harmful element of foodstuff consumption. Animal welfare and rights issues are also gai...

Climate change is a multi-faceted problem clearly requiring interdisciplinary approach. Transport research focusing on climate policy has been based strongly on engineering approaches, whereas the social scientific knowledge of factors contributing to the emissions and preventing efficient emission reduction policies is scarce and only rarely integ...

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2003) and various other environmental studies have highlighted the importance of ecosystem services, while relatively little attention has been paid to the disservices produced by the ecosystems. Likewise, research on urban ecology has highlighted various ecosystem "goods" that urban green and blue areas can pro...

The purpose of this paper is to describe how the international climate discourse has evolved through the years and how it has been reflected in general Finnish climate policy and in a case sector, namely transport. International climate policy discourse can be divided into five periods, the first four strenghtening towards hegemonic discourse and t...