Peter van bergeijk

Artists that are also scientists write about observations in art and science. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk & Pauline Oosterhoff (eds) Contributors Imogen Bellwood-Howard Peeter Burgeik Ruben Gowricharn Helen M. Hintjens Tu Anh Hoang Vincent Icke Pauline Oosterhoff Maartje Raijmakers.

This article addresses the issue that the history of economic thought on international trade is dominated by a Western perspective and sets a first step to decolonise economic thinking by discussing the position of merchants and their commercial activities across the five major philosophies of life in ancient Asia – Hinduism, Buddhism, Confucianism...

Drawing on numerous recent real-world examples from all continents, along with two case studies on global production and the impact of the Great Lockdown, Peter van Bergeijk reveals the pervasive and persistent nature of large inaccuracies in economic statistics. Key economic concepts, such as GDP, inflation, trade, and (un)employment, often exhibi...

This chapter studies how macroeconomic and political variables interact following a boycott of Russian oil (modelled as a reduction of per capita oil rents) and on how these factors codetermine the impact of sanctions and develop over time. We use an innovative approach to sanctions that provides a dynamic, forward-looking, perspective and deals wi...

The paper employs a multimethod approach to investigate shifts from globalization to deglobalization, presenting a novel economic theory grounded in recent data. It identifies two mechanisms driving structural deglobalization: escalating costs and diminishing benefits at the national level, hindering redistribution efforts and the challenge to sust...

Transparency about measurement errors in macroeconomic statistics is lacking. Inaccuracy is usually acknowledged only during extraordinary situations or under specific policy demands. Despite advances in technology and methodology, the overall accuracy has not improved due to economic changes and new complex activities. Even striking historical eff...

Against the background of the Financial Crisis that started in 2007 and the COVID pandemic that broke out in 2019 we discuss the potential impact of deglobalization for labour. The starting point of the discussion is the recognition of the issues raised by the ‘discontents of globalization’, in particular the increase in income inequality between c...

We discuss the sanctions against Russia from three perspectives: legal, economic, and political. The sanctions fit into a trend towards recomprehensivation and the use of autonomous rather than UN sanctions. We highlight (1) new sanctions-senders and sanction innovation, indicating which of those are a context-specific development and which are pot...

In the geography of trade insularity has been recognized by many as a potentially important factor, but the direction of the impact on trade is unclear. The findings of empirical trade flow modelling are heterogeneous with respect to magnitude, sign and significance of the impact of insularity. While insularity has been a customary included control...

ProductivityProductivity development is a key issue for export-driven growth and development. We use East African Community (EAC)East African Community (EAC) firm-level data. Instead of focusing on single EAC partners, using the World Bank Enterprise Surveys, we investigate firm-level productivityProductivity differences for seven countries that ar...

The stylized facts of applied gravity analysis are that regional integration has comparatively speaking progressed well in the EAC, that trade creation by far outweighs trade diversion and that EAC is the most advanced in terms of tariff liberalization. Given this existing body of knowledge, in this chapter, we focus on a relatively under-researche...

This chapter addresses challenges in the legal, political, institutional, and cultural domains offering suggestions and policy proposals based on a discussion of the history of the EAC, its ups and downs, and its current outlook. We provide an overview of protocols for the different stages of economic integration from a customs union via a common m...

This paper hypothesizes that globalization and deglobalization are alternating phases of the world economic system and studies the world trade collapses in the 1930s (Great Depression). 2008/9 (Great Recession) and 2020 (The lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic). The paper provides a historical context, reports some econometric findings and analy...

Against the background of IMF forecasts that seem to imply that the Russian Economy has not been hit as hard as was expected early this year by international institutions and academic modelling teams, this paper provides context showing the need to take the proper counterfactual into account and discusses statistical problems (including the war par...

The collapse of world trade in 2020 due to lockdowns in response to the COVID-19 pandemic has fuelled a rethinking of globalization, with policies being reoriented towards strategic autonomy and local production by means of near-shoring and in-sourcing. Comparing the impact of the COVID-19 trade shock to the Great Depression, this article focusing...

The history of economic thought has discussed issues related to trade and religion predominantly from a Western perspective. In order to fill this gap in the literature, we investigate the historical roots of Asian views on trade and globalization. We discuss the positions of traders, merchants, and their commercial activities across the five major...

Our focus is the interplay of macroeconomic and political variables following a boycott of Russian oil and gas and on how these factors codetermine the result of sanctions. This paper uses an innovative approach to sanction success that provides a dynamic, forward-looking, perspective and deals with noth the economic and the political outcome of ec...

This article studies the case of the sanctions against the Russian war on the Ukraine in 2022 against the background of four major and well-documented historical sanction episodes: (1) the anti-Apartheid sanctions of the 1980s, (2) the sanctions against the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait in 1990, (3) the sanctions against Iranian nuclear capabilities a...

In this essay discus the popular perspective on economics and economists as being super boring and extremely pessimistic (and many believe that this is why economics is known as the “dismal science”). These perspectives are contrasted with the vision of artists that have an economics diploma. A number of artist impressions of installations are prop...

This paper studies the case of the sanctions against the Russian war with the Ukraine in 2022 against the background of four major and well-documented historical sanction episodes: (a) the anti-Apartheid sanctions of the 1980s, (b) the sanctions against the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait in 1990, (c) the sanctions against Iranian nuclear capabilities a...

While the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery unfold in real time, this article investigates some of the major themes on preparations for the next pandemic. Humanity cannot rely on modern medicine to beat the coming ‘disease X’ and the world cannot afford the extortionate health and economic policy interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic again. From...

Economically, the multilateral system has been under pressure; the quick recovery of world merchandise trade stands out, but FDI remains subdued.

Offers a fresh perspective on the empirical literature that analyzes the large-N data set by means of the first meta-analysis of 37 primary studies on determinants of the effectiveness of economic sanctions published over the years 1985 to 2018. Demonstrates that no consensus has emerged on the impact of key variables that theoretically determine t...

Tanzania’s exports are 15% to 25% below potential. Tanzania is lagging Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda on logistics and Ease of Doing Business; its weakest spot is in the category ‘Trade across borders’. In our panel for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia we find an export productivity premium for...

We analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the world economic system through the three components of globalization: economic, social and political globalization, respectively. The pandemic and the economic policy response have hit these aspects to different degrees. • Economically, the quick recovery of world merchandise trade stands out. • Socially,...

Productivity development is a key issue for export-driven growth and development. We use East African Community (EAC) firm-level data. Instead of focusing on single EAC partners, using the World Bank Enterprise Surveys, investigate firm-level productivity difference for seven countries that are part of the COMESA-EAC-SADC tripartite free trade area...

In this working paper, I investigate what I see as the major themes for the debate that we need to have to be prepared for the next pandemic. These themes are developed against the background of a more thorough investigation in my monograph Pandemic Economics (van Bergeijk 2021) about the history of pandemic research. An addendum to the book is nec...

Pandemic Economics prepares for the next pandemic, that unquestionably comes, and its impact may exceed the Corona wreckage. Discussing the Spanish Flu, HIV/AIDS, SARS and Ebola against the background of COVID-19, Pandemic Economics demonstrates how scientists consistently warned for pandemics, but disregarded the possibility of global lockdown cau...

Using 43 studies conducted between 2001 and 2019, we employ a meta-regression analysis (MRA) to synthesize literature findings on the effects of monetary policy on price levels in 32 emerging and developing countries. We find strong evidence of a negative publication bias for all types of price effects (short-term, medium-term and maximum effects)....

Despite more than three decades of empirical research using datasets with large numbers of cases for economic sanctions, no consensus has emerged on the sign and size of the impact of the key variables that theoretically determine the success of economic sanctions. We meta-analyse 36 primary studies on determinants of the effectiveness of economic...

The video is available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5KbYxj0-O8 Content Focus on impact on international trade and investment Coronanomics (a few key economic principles) Key data and stylized facts (introduction of data sources) Before Corona: deglobalization 2.0 What will happen next to the world economy? Suggested readings and useful (da...

We study street vendors in the Nyarugenge District (Kigali, Rwanda) during field research (July to August 2017) using a multimethod approach including field observation, a survey and background interviews. The survey tests assumptions by policymakers about the determinants of financial inclusion of informal sector workers in order to strengthen the...

The economic theory on economic sanctions gives strong indications that success depends positively on pre-sanction trade linkage and prior relations and negatively on sanction duration. However, the empirical literature has not arrived at consensus regarding these factors. Our research puzzle is the observation that despite more than three decades...

Empirical studies and theoretical analyses examine the causes and consequences of disruptions in cross-border economic relationships, including political conflict, economic sanctions, and institutional collapse. Cross-border economic relationships gradually strengthened in the decades after World War II; for most of the postwar period, internationa...

Using monthly data, we perform a vector-autoregressive analysis to measure the effects of monetary policy on the Vietnamese economy. We concentrate our attention on the period following the introduction of the Law on Central Bank in January 1998 (which brought the national monetary policy and its objectives in line with international practices). Co...

We observe and analyse three intra-industry foreign direct investment (FDI) spillover transmission channels using unique firm-level data collected from on-site interviews and observations regarding domestic and foreign firms operating in Uganda in 2015. Our main results are: (1) the spillover effects mainly depend on the channel(s) by which they oc...

This article provides an empirical analysis of the disruption of (neo)classical/liberal globalisation during the Great Depression and the Great Recession, identifying challenges to existing knowledges and approaches, in particular the mainstream analysis that studied the Great Recession in isolation, treating it as a special case and ignoring polit...

We investigate the influence of case selection and (re)coding for two vintages of a key resource for research on economic sanctions: the Peterson Institute data base reported in Hufbauer et al. (2nd edition in 1990 and 3rd edition in 2007). The Peterson Institute has not reported transparently about these changes that make it more likely to find sa...

This paper analyses drivers of imports during the major world trade collapses of the Great Depression (1930s; 34 countries) and the Great Recession (2000s; 173 countries). The dependent variable is the peak to trough distance of the volume of imports in the first year and 3-year-period of these episodes, respectively. The paper develops a succinct...

This special section aims to fill a gap in the regional resilience literature and to stimulate future spatial studies of resilience to include the international dimension in empirical analyses. It demonstrates the do-ability and relevance by the natural experience of the global trade collapse that allows us to separate the effect of collapse upon e...

We investigate the influence of case selection and (re)coding for two vintages of a key resource for research on economic sanctions: the Peterson Institute data base reported in Hufbauer et al. (2nd edition in 1990 and 3rd edition in 2007, often identified by their abbreviations HSE and HSEO). The Peterson Institute has not transparently reported a...

We study the external and internal proliferation of country classifications in development policy. The number of classifications increased from four (1985) to 17 (2013) when the average in our sample of 111 developing countries exceeded three classifications per country. Based on historical overview and comparative case study for land-locked develo...

This meta-analysis reviews the intrasector heterogeneity of productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) in 31 developing countries through a larger more comprehensive data set. We investigate how the inconsistencies in the reported spillover findings are affected by publication bias, characteristics of the data, estimation techniqu...

We review the literature on economic diplomacy and provide a meta-analysis of 32 empirical studies published in 1986–2011 that deal with the trade and investment impact of economic diplomacy (embassies, consulates, other diplomatic facilities, investment and export promotion offices, trade and state visits). Controlling for differences in research...

The authors investigate the influence of case selection and (re)coding for two vintages of a key resource for research on economic sanctions: the Peterson Institute data base reported in Hufbauer et al. (2nd edition in 1990 and 3rd edition in 2007). The Peterson Institute has not reported transparently on these changes. At the level of individual c...

We use the case of the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters to analyze strengths and weaknesses of meta-analysis in an emerging research field. Macroeconomists have published on this issue since 2002 (we identified 60 studies to date). The results of the studies are contradictory and therefore the need to synthesize the available research is e...

We systematize 64 primary studies published in 2000–2013 on the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters by providing OLS and generalized ordered probit meta-analyses for 1858 and 1991 regressions, respectively. We investigate how the reported results in the primary studies are influenced by the empirical design, the estimation technique, and/or p...

By applying an elasticity of demand analysis, the author explains the rise and fall of the oil cartel. This article will be of special interest in inttermediate micro, industrial organization, and “contemporary problems” courses.

One of the intriguing aspects of African regional trade agreements (RTAs) is the extent of multi-membership, where many African countries are members of more than one RTA. Using a gravity model for 25 countries and the years 1980-2006, we measure the extent of multi-membership and compare its impact in two major African regional blocs, Economic Com...

This book is the result of a seminar (‘Social @ Sciences: Why Does Science ?’ - ISS April 16, 2014). ISS invited from academia, from the community, policy-makers, the and other relevant organisations to the social impact and valorisation science.

In order to explain why successes of economic sanctions predominantly occur in the first two years of a sanction episode, we analyse the dynamic economic and political impact of an economic sanction. Our theoretical analysis of the dynamics of adjustment gives us two important results: firstly, the strongest impact in terms of utility forgone occur...

Taking stock of emerging planet data and analysing policies during the global crisis, Earth Economics provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to basic macroeconomic concepts, methods and principles, and their application to real world data.