Peter Phleps

• Doctor of Engineering
• Senior Researcher at BMW Group

The aim of the original study, The Future of Driving in Developing Countries (Ecola et al. 2014), and also of this update, is to investigate the factors that will influence the future path of automobility in emerging economies. Generally speaking, as wealth, expressed as GDP (gross domestic product) per capita, increases, both the number of vehicle...

To analyse and quantify the possible impact of autonomous driving on mobility behaviour, we used an approach that combined both qualitative and quantitative methods. In the first phase of the project, we analysed the status quo in our selected countries and the expected developments in autonomous driving, and identified potential user segments and...

What might the future of mobility be in China in 2030? "Mobility" is defined as the ability to travel from one location to another regardless of mode or purpose. Researchers at RAND Corporation working with the German Institute for Mobility Research developed two scenarios that address this question with a six-step process: (a) select influence are...

Demograische, wirtschaftliche, technologische, verkehrs- und energiepolitische Veränderungen beeinlussen unser Mobilitätsverhalten ebenso wie unsere persönlichen Einstellungen. Wie die Menschen sich 2035 in Deutschland bewegen werden, ist allerdings nicht mit Bestimmtheit vorherzusagen. Um mit diesen Unsicherheiten besser umgehen zu können, hat das...

Wie wird sich unser Mobilitätsverhalten in den nächsten zwanzig Jahren verändern? Das kann niemand mit Bestimmtheit voraussagen. Zum dritten Mal hat ifmo seine Szenarien zur Zukunft der Mobilität in Deutschland fortgeschrieben. Diesmal mit dem Zeithorizont 2035. Dabei wurden in einem aufwändigen Verfahren demografische, wirtschaftliche, verkehrs- u...

This paper presents two scenarios for mobility in the United States in 2030 and describes the rigorous qualitative and quantitative methodology used to develop them. This research should be of interest to transportation agencies at all levels federal, state, and local because innovative approaches to dealing with uncertainty about the future of mob...

While the mobility in the context of everyday life has recently almost stagnated in central Europe, long distance mobility continues to grow substantially. Against this background, the paper presents the status quo, current trends and future perspectives of long distance mobil-ity in central Europe, with focus on Germany. In speaking of long-distan...

The level of automobility, defined as travel in personal vehicles, is often seen as a function of income: The higher a country's per capita income, the greater the amount of driving. However, levels of automobility vary quite substantially between countries even at similar levels of economic development. This suggests that countries follow differen...

As other mobility innovations individual electric mobility will presumably have a significant market share only in decades from now. Scenario planning technique provides a framework for exploring the mobility market of the future with a long term perspective. Against this background the chapter at hand has a twofold objective: (a) It promotes scena...

A methodology focusing on the evaluation of noise and emission specific direct operating cost components for future aircraft concepts is presented and applied to compare a geared turbofan versus an open rotor powered single-aisle aircraft. High uncertainties in the future development of airline environmental regulations, restrictions and charges co...

For the analysis and assessment of new air transport concepts, operating costs are one of the most important metrics. However, most hither to published methods are either outdated or limited functional sensitivities: especially when it concerns airport charges. Only a few methods take such important charges into account. Therefore, this paper focus...

What might one expect for the future of mobility in the United States in 2030? Mobility is defined as the ability to travel from one location to another, regardless of mode or purpose. RAND researchers used a six-step scenario development process to develop two thought-provoking scenarios that address this question. The six steps are (1) select inf...

The air cargo market is highly sensitive to fluctuations in the global economy, changes in consumer behaviour as well as environmental regulations. Especially during the crisis in 2008 and 2009, the decline in freight tonne kilometres (FTK) exceeded that in world passenger traffic by far, i.e. a decrease by -24 per cent and -8 per cent to previous...

Due to the worldwide increasing air traffic demand being challenged by restricted airport capacities, the future aircraft designs and operational concepts need to be evaluated regarding their general impact on airport capacity already at the concept stage within the design process. Looking at different airport situations worldwide, however, reveals...

Despite ongoing high uncertainties concerning the impact of aviation on climate change, its share of global manmade CO2 emissions is expected to rise and level out at approximately 3% in 2050 (according to IPCC). As aviation continues growing to meet the increasing demand for mobility, the air transport industry has promised to shoulder its respons...

Die Bewertung von neuen Technologien vor dem Hintergrund zukünftiger technischer, wirtschaftlicher und strategischer Rahmenbedingungen stellt viele Branchen vor große Herausforderungen. Insbesondere gilt dies für die Luftfahrt, weil hier Produktlebenszyklen und relevante Entwicklungszeiten deutlich länger sind als in anderen Branchen. Die Verwendun...

Scenario techniques are increasingly relevant and approved when dealing with opportunities and risks of complex long-term issues. Instead of quantitative trend statements, which are hard to predict accurately, scenarios give a more general insight into plausible developments of a specified topic and into related chances and threats. However, decisi...