Peter Carl

Peter Carl
ASWEX - Applied Water Research · (Association of Senior Water Experts)

Dr. rer. nat.

About

148
Publications
7,291
Reads
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216
Citations
Citations since 2017
1 Research Item
12 Citations
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2017201820192020202120222023012345
Additional affiliations
July 2009 - present
ASWEX - Applied Water Research
Position
  • Senior Researcher, Managing Director
November 2004 - May 2005
Max Planck Institute for the History of Sciences
Position
  • Research Associate
Description
  • Responsibility in the modern physics part ("Einstein's world today") of the Einstein exhibition in Berlin, 2005
March 2003 - December 2003
Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics
Position
  • Research Associate
Description
  • Transport modelling of magnetically confined fusion plasmas (software technological regeneration of the Braams / IRENE code system). Computer simulation experiments on the PSI-2 discharge device for the study of plasma-surface interactions

Publications

Publications (148)
Chapter
Full-text available
The Earth's climate system bears a rich variety of feedback mechanisms that may give rise to complex, evolving modal structures under internal and external control. Various types of synchronization may be identified in the system's motion when looking at representative time series of the instrumental period through the glasses of an advanced techni...
Chapter
Full-text available
The smoke veil over the Arabian peninsula, the Arabian Sea and adjacent areas, fed by the burning Kuwaiti oil fields from February to October 1991, turned out to provide a key climate sensitivity 'experiment' on the global hydrological response to anthropogenic immissions. Though the menace of setting the oil wells alight failed to work as a deterr...
Chapter
Full-text available
Since the seminal work of Lorenz, chaotic behaviour of truncated atmospheric equations bears conceptual grounds in the issue of weather predictability. As for climatic scales, low-order models of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation system show chaotic motions as well. The gap to General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been bridged in conceptual studies...
Article
Full-text available
An integrated, largely nonprobabilistic, calibration-free approach is proposed to identify, estimate, evaluate, and attribute conceptual components of a streamflow time series. We assess its gross functional aggregation from the signal structure alone by consistently exploiting elementary constraints. Starting from the separability concept of linea...
Article
Full-text available
Within the scope of a program to empirically assess the pathways across large river systems of substances from diffuse sources, a method has been proposed and demonstrated in part 1 of blind functional streamflow disaggregation (FSD). It yields fast, transient, and (s)low conceptual, parallel component flows. We apply the technique here to German a...
Chapter
This chapter summarizes the status we achieved during the Guanting project work of a methodology to evaluate hydrologic simulations by means of inverse data modeling. Basically, two combined and mutually supplementary tools have been further advanced in order to meet the specific requirements encountered: the regularity based Functional Streamflow...
Chapter
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Chaotic behaviour of truncated atmospheric equations provides conceptual grounds in the issue of weather predictability. Low-order models of the El Nino--Southern Oscillation system show such type motions as well. As for General Circulation Models (GCMs), conceptual studies using a (very) coarse resolution tropospheric GCM unveiled an attractor set...
Data
cf. abstract of lecture at the Mekong Environmental Symposium, Ho Chi Minh City, March 2013
Conference Paper
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Substantial upstream anthropogenic encroachment notwithstanding, Mekong runoff at Kratie (1924-2007) shows the signs of natural intraseasonal monsoon activity throughout the record. The 40-60 days active-break monsoon cycle bears the major short-term causation of drought and flood dynamics and their variability across South-to-East Asia and at plan...
Conference Paper
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Southeast Asia is a key region of seasonal advance and retreat of the Asian monsoon and its individual branches, and thus of the global monsoon and its seasonally evolving and fading dynamics. During boreal summer the regional water cycle underlies cooperative and competitive actions of South and East Asian monsoons, notably of their Bay of Bengal...
Chapter
Full-text available
As a feedback system under multiple cyclic forcing which bears rich oscillatory capabilities, the Earth's climate gives rise to complex, evolving modal structures. To dissolve their dynamic complexity, sparse approximations are tried of time series of the instrumental period, using the adaptive, multiscale Matching Pursuit (MP) approach. A large, o...
Conference Paper
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(from the poster's text) Total river runoff is a nonstationary, convolved aggregate of individual (conceptual or physical) 'functional' flow components which bear distinct pathways or sources of discharge at catchment outlet. In contrast to direct modelling, which tries to follow these pathways in a way, inverse modelling aims to generate compone...
Conference Paper
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Die korrekte Wiedergabe der intrasaisonalen Aktivität des globalen Monsuns und seiner einzelnen Zweige ist ein nach wie vor ungelöstes Problem der Klimamodellierung. Für den Nordsommer können das System und seine dynamischen Eigenschaften, die die Modellierung so schwierig machen, an einem `kleinen' troposphärischen GCM vom Mintz-Arakawa-Typ studie...
Data
(see conference paper: "Konzeptionelle GCM-Studien zur intrasaisonalen Aktivität des globalen Monsunsystems", 9. Deutsche Klimatagung, Freiburg 2012)
Data
Full-text available
Poster presented at the 9th German Climate Conference, Freiburg, October 2012. Note that it largely contains another summary of the first-generation study of MP-FM based climate time series analysis, not yet too much of the ongoing second-generation analysis as originally announced. Hope it is interesting enough to have a look at, nevertheless.
Conference Paper
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Die `sparsame' Approximation von Klima-Zeitreihen der instrumentellen Periode mittels adaptiver, multiskaliger Wellenform-Analyse durch das Matching Pursuit (MP) Verfahren hat ein in mehrfacher Hinsicht intern und extern synchronisiertes System interannueller Modenstrukturen für die Periode 1870--1997 zum Vorschein gebracht. Defizite der ersten Ver...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The dynamical status of the climate system is largely unknown, as is that of its elaborated GCMs, which are not normally used for conceptual clarifications with a view on qualitative dynamics. This poses challenges when grasping the system’s past evolution and/or evaluating forecasts of its future. Climate sensitivity, and complexity of free motion...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Since the seminal work of Lorenz, chaotic behavior of truncated atmospheric equations bears conceptual grounds in the issue of weather predictability. As for climatic scales, low-order models of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation system show chaotic motions as well. The gap to General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been bridged in conceptual studies u...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The presentation summarizes the state of work on Work Package A 4120 of the, then ongoing, Phase 2 of the German-Vietnamese Mekong Delta project WISDOM
Technical Report
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Es werden konzeptionelle Aspekte der Lösung des inversen Problems einer funktionellen Disaggregation von Abfuß-Zeitreihen skizziert und ein Tableau konkreter Methoden diskutiert. Zentrale Elemente, deren Algorithmen ausführlich beschrieben werden, sind die Konstruktion einer Hierarchie unterer Einhüllender der Abfluß-Zeitreihe, die Rektifizierung d...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Univariate, adaptive atomic decompositions of representative time series of the global climate system are obtained using a Matching Pursuit (MP) algorithm with a large, overcomplete dictionary of Gaussian logons, i.e. frequency-modulated (FM) extensions to the Gabor atom. Among the types of synchronized motion across the instrumental climate record...
Data
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Poster presented at the IEEE Statistical Signal Processing Workshop in Nice, June 2011. Abstract and full-text 4-pages paper cf. there
Article
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A Matching Pursuit (MP) algorithm equipped with a dictionary of Gaussian logons is presented, i.e. with generalized Gabor atoms extending into signal space dimensions of harmonic frequency modulation (FM). This elementary signal captures a broad variety of functional signatures in time series. Using a short test series composed of five additive mod...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Um komplizierte (quasi-)zyklische Bewegungen und deren gegenseitige (möglicherweise nur temporäre) Synchronbewegung im Klimasystem verfolgen zu können, wurde eine spezielle Version des ''Matching Pursuit'' (MP) Verfahrens entworfen und erfolgreich getestet, die hier im Detail vorgestellt und in ihren Eigenschaften beleuchtet wird. Sie arbeitet mit...
Data
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Powerpoint presentation of the Lecture of February 24, 2010, at the BTU Cottbus
Conference Paper
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The study to be outlined aims at contributing to conceptual understanding of climate variability and change, and it goes beyond a speciic model-borne, qualitative view on global climate dy-namics in tracing its consequences, via Central European climate and weather regimes, down to the river basin of the Middle Elbe. The presentation ooers a geomet...
Conference Paper
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Mit dem planetaren Monsunsystem als Herzstück kann der hydrologische Zyklus der Atmosphäre als sensibler 'Empfänger' für diverse Antriebe eines selbstorganisierenden, dynamisch angeregten Klimasystems fungieren, die dessen instabile periodische Orbits nutzen und zumindest temporär stabilisieren. Neben der QBO, der Phytoplankton-Response oder der Ch...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Empirische Modenstrukturen beobachteter Zeitreihen des Elbe-Abflusses bei Dresden sowie europäischer Regionaldaten (Niederschläge, Großwetterlagen etc.) und globaler Klima-Parameter enthalten weitgehend verborgene interannuelle Synchronbewegungen, meist zwischen Zeit- und Frequenzbereich. Sie legen einen selektiven Einfluss von Klima- und Wetterreg...
Data
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Poster of the DKT8 (2009) contribution "Signaturen von Klima- und Wetterregimes im Abfluss am Elbe-Pegel bei Dresden", cf. abstrect & extended abstract there
Conference Paper
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To follow the traces that climate variability and change may have left in archives of terrestrial runoff, empirical modal structures are explored of observed streamflow and related climate and weather time series of the instrumental period. Here the signals are presented and discussed which may be found when using a strategy of two techniques of ti...
Conference Paper
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A combination is presented of two novel approaches currently used in the search for climate signals in river runoff. Conceptually, this relies on the notion of a regime character of climate and weather variability and change to justify the working hypothesis of existing stable "vertical" (global/regional/basin scale) dynamic links. A great variety...
Conference Paper
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A time series study is presented that pinpoints the potential of a constitutive role in the climate system's dynamics of major elements of the global hydrologic cycle (analysis period 1870-1997). Major source regions and mechanisms of the latter include tropic/subtropical systems, notably the monsoons and El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Onset, retrea...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Conceptual foundation, algorithmic solution, and independent evaluation of exemplary applications are given of the recently introduced "functional streamflow disaggregation" (FSD) technique (WRR, 2008). This is an algorithmic construct of blind, largely non-probabilistic, uncalibrated, 'minimalistic' runoff analysis. It starts with a first guess us...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The performance is demonstrated and evaluated, for headwater catchments across Central Europe, of the recently published Functional Streamflow Disaggregation (FSD) technique. To this end, some 16 gauging stations have been selected from river basins of the upper Danube (Southern Germany), the Danube tributary Ybbs (Central Austria), and the Elbe (G...
Conference Paper
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To follow complex (quasi)cycles and synchronized motions of various types throughout a set of customary climate time series, a highly overcomplete dictionary of a very variable waveform, the Gaussian logon, is used within a matching pursuit (MP) approch after Mallat and Zhang (1993). The Gaussian logon is an extension, into the signal space dimensi...
Data
Full-text available
cf. lecture "Matching Pursuits with Gaussian lopgons - a novel view on climate dynamics"
Chapter
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The circumstances under which climate research in the German Democratic Republic (GDR) became interested in, and familiar with, global three-dimensional climate modelling are borne in a chance encounter within a framework of cooperation between the Academies of Sciences (AS) of the GDR and the USSR in controlled thermonuclear fusion research (CTFR)...
Chapter
We start with a sketch of earlier findings on worldwide environmental risks of nuclear testing and nuclear war. An overview is then given of the evolving new awareness since the turn of the 1970s, when international tensions gave way to the concern that a large military confrontation could be triggered soon. The ‘nuclear winter’ hypothesis plays a...
Data
Full-text available
Corrigendum to P. Carl et al.: "Regularity based functional streamflow disaggregation. 2. Extended demonstration", Water Resources Research 44 (2008) W03426
Conference Paper
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Eine neueartige, empirische Methode der 'blinden' funktionellen Analyse regulärer Anteile von Abfluß-Zeitreihen liefert für Stationen in den Bassins von oberer Donau und Elbe Hinweise auf interne Veränderungen im terrestrischen hydrologischen Regime. Sie betreffen transiente unterirdische Abflußkomponenten und passen in ein sich entwickelndes Bild...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Die Modenstruktur einer inzwischen aus astrophysikalischen Gründen zurückgezogenen Rekonstruktion der Solarstrahlung zeigt für den Zeitraum 1870--1997 bemerkenswerte Synchronbewegungen mit dem Klimarecord. Im Vergleich zur Modenstruktur der Zeitreihe der Sonnenfleckenzahl fällt in der letzteren das Fehlen einer führenden multidekadischen Mode auf,...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The modal structure of a time series of reconstructed solar radiation, which has been withdrawn for astrophysical reasons however, shows remarkable synchronizations for the period 1870-1997 with the climate record. Only five modes ’explain’ more than 95% variance of the series. Comparison with the sunspot number series shows that the latter misses...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Two papers have just appeared that address the climatic risks which could emerge from a regional nuclear conflict in the Middle East or in Southeast Asia, or from acts of nuclear terrorism in subtropical latitudes. The authors develop possible scenarios and estimate the amount of smoke that could be injected into the atmosphere and would thus resul...
Conference Paper
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In zwei gerade erschienenen Arbeiten werden klimatische Risiken eines regionalen Atomkrieges im Nahen Osten oder Südostasien bzw. von Akten des nuklearen Terrorismus in den Subtropen analysiert. Die Autoren entwickeln mögliche Szenarien und schätzen die Rauchmengen ab, die dabei in die Atmosphäre gelangen und das Klimasystem empfindlich stören könn...
Chapter
Full-text available
Ausgelöst durch einen eher zufälligen Kontakt unmittelbar vor der Washingtoner Konferenz "Die Welt nach einem Atomkrieg" Ende 1983, wurde am Zentralinstitut für Elektronenphysik (ZIE) der AdW in Berlin auf Anregung des Vorsitzenden der Physikalischen Gesellschaft, Prof. Robert Rompe (1905-1993), im Jahre 1984 eine Studie angefertigt, die dann in ei...
Chapter
Full-text available
Die klassische Aufgabe, Komponenten des Gesamtabflusses an einer Pegelstation zu identifizieren und zu separieren, kann von einer ‚minimalistischen‘ Position her, die nur elementarstes Vorwissen hydrologischer Art in Anspruch nimmt (insbesondere ohne Kenntnis der Niederschläge auskommt), methodisch aber hinreichend breit angelegt ist und etwas tief...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Die Modenstruktur der rekonstruierten Solarstrahlung wird für den Zeitraum 1870--1997 zu mehr als 95% (Varianz) bestimmt durch fünf Signale: (i) eine säkulare Mode, (ii) ein langsam driftender Schwabe--Zyklus, (iii) eine multidekadische Mode, deren Frequenz sich synchron mit der Phase der säkularen Mode ändert, (iv) eine Art Modulationsinstabilität...
Data
Full-text available
(see conference paper: "Zum Charakter des solaren Signals in Zeitreihen der instrumentellen Periode", 7. Deutsche Klimatagung 2006)
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Eine empirische Methode der 'blinden' funktionellen Analyse regulärer Anteile von Abfluß-Zeitreihen liefert für Stationen in den Bassins von oberer Donau und Elbe erste Hinweise auf interne Veränderungen im terrestrischen hydrologischen Regime. Sie betreffen die relativen Anteile zweier transienter unterirdischer Abflußkomponenten und ergänzen ein...
Data
Full-text available
cf. DKT7 (2006) Conference abstract & extended abstract "Suche nach Klimasignaturen in hydrologischen Zeitreihen"
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Four types of internal and external synchronization are found when looking at representative time series of the instrumental period, including insolation, temperatures, precipitation and dynamic indices, using a multiscale method that allows for systematic frequency modulation. Phase coherence in the time domain, usually viewed as making up synchro...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Mittels univariater Analyse und multivariater Synthese der Jahreswerte repräsentativer Zeitreihen des Klimasystems werden vier Synchronisationstypen identifiziert, die die Hypothese zulassen, das System 'arbeite' bereits in einem (prä-) chaotischen 'Betriebsregime' auf globaler räumlicher Skala und mit Zeitskalen bis zu Jahrhunderten. Neben der übl...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Basierend auf univariater Analyse und multivariater Synthese repräsentativer Zeitreihen des Klimasystems (Temperaturen, dynamische Indices, Niederschläge) mit Hilfe einer Modenzerlegung, die Frequenzdrift und -modulation zulässt, werden bisher unbekannte Synchronisationsvorgänge im System aufgedeckt, die den Schluss nahelegen, dass dessen gegenwärt...
Article
A series of experiments dedicated to the analysis of transport and sticking of hydrocarbon molecules have been performed in the plasma generator PSI-2. As a source of hydrocarbons defined amounts of CH4 and C2H4 have been injected. After injection the molecules undergo a series of ionisation and dissociation reactions. The thickness change of depos...
Data
Poster presented at the (first) International Conference on Earth system modelling, Hamburg, 2003 (displayed also at the 6th German Climate Conference, Potsdam)
Article
Full-text available
Univariate, adaptive atomic decomposition using a large dictionary of frequency-modulated (FM) Gabor wavelets is applied to a set of representative annual climatic time series for the 128-yr period 1870-1997. In a subsequent multivariate synthesis attempt, the question is addressed to what extent obvious nonstationarities throughout the instrumenta...
Data
Full-text available
Poster presented at the (First) International Conference on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Sept. 2003 - cf. abstract and full text there
Conference Paper
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Die Frage, inwieweit diverse freie Oszillationen im Klimasystem interne Synchronisation, und damit niederdimensionales Verhalten widerspiegeln, ist von erheblichem konzeptionellen und praktischen Interesse. Beispielsweise betrifft sie das Problem, ob die massive Verringerung des Ausstoßes von Treibhausgasen (eine politisch noch nicht gelöste Aufga...
Data
poster presented at the 6th German Climate Conference, cf. paper in the Proceedings (Terra Nostra 6/2003)
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Multiple cyclic forcing and the climate system`s internal oscillatory capabilities may bear complex, evolving modal structures as found in time-frequency representations of climatic time series, using the Wavelet Transform (WT) for example, throughout the instrumental record. The question remains if (and to what extend) these structures bear the si...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Free oscillations in the climate system are signs of organized dynamics. Whether or not those dynamics bear signatures of low-dimensional behaviour is of considerable practical interest. The question is, in other words, whether or not the phase space topology of the observed climate system - and of its more or less comprehensive models - is ruled b...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
An integrated approach to empirical functional streamflow disaggregation, as recently proposed by these authors, has been further worked out and applied in a broader study into the structure and variability of German river discharge, covering daily data from the basins of Elbe, Danube, Neckar and Main. Using the leading eigenvector of a first--gues...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Using a multiscale basis pursuit technique of atomic decomposition in the time--frequency plane, and admitting of deep frequency modulation at interannual to centennial scales, representative climatic time series (insolation, temperatures, dynamic indices, All--India rainfall) are shown to exhibit as yet unknown synchronizations both in the time an...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Multifractal analysis using the Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima (WTMM) approach is being applied to the climate of a Mintz-Arakawa type, coarse resolution, two-layer AGCM. The model shows a backwards running period multiplication scenario throughout the northern summer, subsequent to a 'hard', subcritical Hopf bifurcation late in spring. This 'rou...
Data
concise technical summary of the FSD tool
Technical Report
Full-text available
Es werden konzeptionelle Vorstellungen und konkrete Methoden zur Lösung des inversen Problems einer funktionellen Disaggregation von Abfluß-Zeitreihen diskutiert. Zentrale Konzepte, deren Algorithmen wir beschreiben, sind die Konstruktion unterer Einhüllender, die Rektifikation der mittels Singular-system Analysis (SSA) gewonnenen qualitativen Kenn...
Conference Paper
A multiscale basis pursuit technique of atomic decomposition in the time-­frequency plane, that admits of deep frequency modulation at interannual to centennial scales, has been applied to representative climatic time series (insolation, temperatures, dynamic indices, All-­India rainfall) aimed at unveiling potential complex yet synchronized motion...
Conference Paper
A combination of more or less traditional methods is used to empirically identify, separate and evaluate baseflow, intermediate and fast runoff components of river discharge time series. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) provides a first guess of regular behaviour. In order to obtain discharge components of hydrological character, a cubic spline ite...
Conference Paper
The Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima (WTMM) approach to multifractal analysis is utilizeded to tackle the inverse problem of functional streamflow disaggregation. To cope with regular components, higher derivatives of the Gaussian are used as analysing wavelets. WTMM based evaluation of singularity structures present in total discharge series and i...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Konzepte der nichtlinearen Systemtheorie wie Multiple Zustände, Stochastische Resonanz, Hopf-Bifurkationen oder Quasiperiodizität haben paradigmatische Relevanz erlangt in verschiedenen Bereichen der Klimatologie (z.B. Blockierungsphänomene, Thermohaline Zirkulation, ENSO Zyklus). Hysteresiserscheinungen spielen in der Diskussion um die relative Ro...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Die Nutzung von Konzepten der qualitativen Theorie dynamischer Systeme ("Chaostheorie") für das Verständnis des Zustandes und der Dynamik des Klimasystems sowie für die Prognose seiner künftigen Evolution ist unterentwickelt, obwohl sie wesentliche Wurzeln gerade in der Klimatologie hat und ihr Universalitätsanspruch sowie die bisher gefundenen all...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
(From the conclusions:) Self-induced phase modulation of the seasonal cycle (SC) at retreat of the monsoon system(s) from a dynamically stable, intraseasonally oscillatory climate regime is proposed as a candidate causation of the marked FM (frequency modulation) effects found across the instrumental data. ... A long-term memory of the atmosphere (...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Loosely following the classical approach of practical hydrology, the inverse and mathematically ill-posed task of decomposing river runoff into components which are accessible to hydrological interpretation is solved in constructing a hierarchy of lower envelopes to the discharge series. Though exploiting the "analytic signal" would be highly prefe...
Data
Full-text available
cf. extended abstract of "Empirical separation and evaluation of runoff components for German mountain and lowland rivers" (Behrendt & Carl, 2001)
Data
Full-text available
cf. extended abstract of "Frequency modulation across the instrumental climate record - another monsoon perspectice on climate variability and change" (Carl, 2001)
Conference Paper
Verlauf und Konsequenzen des Globalen Wandels werden vermutlich durch nichtlineare Systemresponse und -dynamik wesentlich mitbestimmt. Mehrfach zyklische Antriebe und die intrinsische Schwingungsfähigkeit des Klimasystems legen es nahe, vor allem nach Phaseneffekten und Synchronisationsvorgängen in den komplex komponierten, nichtstationären Modenst...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Multiple cyclic forcing and the climate system's internal oscillatory capabilities may bear complex, evolving modal structures, as have been found throughout the instrumental record. The question arises to what extent nonstationarities reflect anharmonic climate drifts and/or just higher-order cyclostationarity, maybe via systematic frequency modul...
Conference Paper
Conceptual perception of climate sensitivity and variability, and projections on the system’s change under variable forcing, depend on the comprehension of its status. From a dynamical systems point of view, the latter may range from equilibrium to higher order geometrical objects in phase space. Though the solution of difficult modelling problems...
Conference Paper
Sensitive phase response of the seasonal cycle is viewed as a crucial element in both course and consequences of Global Change. Following a conception that ascribes a major role in the genesis of present-day climate dynamics to the monsoons and their systematic phase modulation of the seasonal cycle, a communication analogue might hold in climatic...
Conference Paper
Frequency modulation (FM) of a carrier mode, a basic conception of communication, appears to be ubiquitous in climate and environmental signals. Periods embrace paleo to interdiurnal, at least, and parameters cover solar and terrestrial ones, from global climate to regional hydrology and local ecosystems—as far as ’touched’ as yet. Modulations may...
Conference Paper
The seasonal cycle (SC) of global atmospheric circulations is the basic orbitally driven carrier mode available for phase (or frequency) modulation as have been found in paleoclimatic, instrumental and model data. The weak precession cycle has been identified in phase drifts of the SC for a variety of temperature series. An unprecedented departure...
Conference Paper
Recent paleoclimatic studies point to frequency modulation (FM) effects in response to Milankovich forcing, or of these cycles themselves. This appears to be but half the truth. Adaptive joint analysis of related oscillation parameters using a broad set of intraseasonal to centennial climatic time series unveils ubiquitous presence of FM for both r...
Conference Paper
'Monsoon climates' of a conceptual AGCM show topologically determined variability out of intraseasonal scales which is translated into interannual to centennial motions via modulation of the seasonal cycle (SC). A constitutive effect of annual forcing consists thus in providing a carrier mode for frequency modulation (FM)--a fundamental concept of...
Conference Paper
As an integral, constitutive part of its seasonal cycle (SC), a conceptual GCM's planetary-scale boreal summer monsoon (PSM) bears a wide variety of interannual timescales, from biennial to centennial. Topologically, the key feature in the back is an inflation of the SC from a dynamically stable forced limit cycle into a (higher order) torus segmen...
Conference Paper
Cyclomania (Hoydt & Schatten, 1997), an established approach to prediction, may be carried to its extremes and equally raised when considering the full set of signal attributes that might characterize oscillatory behaviour. Introducing scale as an independent dimension of this parameter space bears a time-dependent measure of predictability ('insta...
Conference Paper
Boreal summer monsoon activity throughout the 10-60 days band in a conceptual GCM is subjected to a deeper diagnostic screening of its individual phases, from premonsoon oscillations of paleoclimatic interest, across highly excited midsummer stages along a backwards running period multiplication scenario as the season advances, until (and including...
Conference Paper
Though the wavelet transform (WT) experiences prosperity in climate research, its tiling of the time-frequency plane and the related fixed scale-frequency relationship are all but optimal in this field. Notwithstanding, a majority of WT analyses indicates a degree of nonstationarity which might be of paradigmatic relevance with a view on the very n...
Conference Paper
Joint analysis of all basic parameters of oscillation is a highly desirable yet mathematically ill-posed problem in time series research. The latter is due to the fact that oscillation theory includes the fundamental concept of modulation. Focussing on frequency modulation (FM), an accordingly modified "Matching Pursuit" (MP) algorithm is presented...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Conceptions of nonlinear science may attain paradigmatic weight in the perception of climate and global change dynamics. Releted reasoning includes the genesis of interannual variability (Lorenz 1990) and the role of initial and boundary conditions in climate change (Pielke 1998). The formar was among the targets when using a General Circulation Mo...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Evidence for organized interannual and interdecadal climate dynamics is demonstrated by time-frequency analyses of monsoon onset and other time series. The former may be understood as providing natural Poincare sections of the climate system (snapshots taken from definite phases of its seasonal evolution) and may thus be of interest when real world...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Growing seasonal synchroneity between the atmospheric CH4 load and worldwide gas production may be inferred from time-frequency analyses of the global NOAA methane record and monthly OGJ (Oil & Gas Journal) figures since the 1980s. The strong growth rate anomaly of the early 1990s observed in atmospheric CH4 is situated just at the common (1990-94)...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The very existence of present-day intraseasonal monsoon variability may be indicative of a specific route to chaos born in the atmosphere-land system. Given the universality of basic structures in nonlinear science, a systems dynamical climate change scenario might then be followed every year, as a quick-motion picture, by the seasonal evolution of...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Three fundamentally different types of climate variability found in a driven, conceptual model of the troposphere have been subjected to in-depth analysis with a view towards their low-dimensional, intraseasonal "systems dynamic core" and consequential interannual performance. Whereas the least excited solution provides a smooth seasonal cycle (SC)...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Aimed at verifying nonlinear climate dynamics conceptions from observation and exploiting low-dimensional contributions for prediction, modal structures have been analysed of high-quality summer and winter monsoon onset series from the southern tip of peninsular India, using high resolution time-frequency methods. ... Dates of monsoon onset might ....
Technical Report
Full-text available
Structural and dynamic sources of interannual variability found in a climatologically driven, 'conceptual' GCM are born in its status of intraseasonal monsoon excitation. Subject to simple topological rules, the attractor set behind a 198-year simulation inflates into a torus segment in boreal summer that imprints a helical winding on the system's...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Dates of monsoon onset and retreat are proxies of climate variability that may provide topological information on the system's dynamic organization. Adaptive time-frequency analyses of summer and winter monsoon onset and of both North Atlantic and Southern Oscillation (NAO, SO) indices bear evidence of quasi-stationarity in the atmosphere-land syst...
Article
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Context: Resumption of sports in a divers federation before the pandemic is brought under control, conceptual preparation of activity before swimming pools re-open
Types of sport considered here: Underwater-Rugby and UW-Hockey (both in apnoe).
These are team sports (UWR even a contact sport), and the athletes regularly must breath at the surface. Keeping sufficient distance is considered problematic. Though the equipment includes mask and snorcel, the latter may be the problem in close encounters, since aerosols from breathing are freely delivered.
Focus of this question: the aerosol cloud immediately above the water surface.

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