Pete Philipson

Newcastle University | NCL · School of Mathematics, Statistics and Physics

The purpose of this study was to analyse contemporary performance data in elite and sub-elite Irish swimmers, to explore the number of days and races required for swimmers to achieve their fastest competitive performances and how this may be influenced by sex, stroke and race distance. The initial dataset consisted of n = 3930 observations on n = 5...

The ability to predict failures in hard disk drives (HDDs) is a major objective of HDD manufacturers since avoiding unexpected failures may prevent data loss, improve service reliability, and reduce data center downtime. Most HDDs are equipped with a threshold‐based monitoring system named self‐monitoring, analysis and reporting technology (SMART)....

A truncated, mean-parameterized Conway-Maxwell-Poisson model is developed to handle under- and overdispersed count data owing to individual heterogeneity. The truncated nature of the data allows for a more direct implementation of the model than is utilized in previous work without too much computational burden. The model is applied to a large data...

Count data that are subject to both under and overdispersion at some hierarchical level cannot be readily accommodated by classic models such as Poisson or negative binomial regression models. The mean-parameterised Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution allows for both types of dispersion within the same model, but is doubly intractable with an embed...

Background: Patients undergoing stoma surgery have higher risk for early readmission. Some patients may benefit from closer post-discharge surveillance to provide early detection of complications and timely intervention. However, there is a paucity of validated tools to identify those at higher risk of readmission. Here, we determine independent r...

Background Patients who have stoma surgery are at higher risk for readmission following discharge. Some may benefit from closer post-discharge surveillance to detect complications earlier and provide timely treatment to avoid readmission. However, there are a paucity of contemporary tools to identify those at higher risk of readmission following di...

In this paper we propose a condition-based maintenance policy for continuously monitored multi-component systems subject to stochastic dependence through load sharing and economic dependence through maintenance set-up costs. Stochastic dependence provides an incentive to replace failed components as soon as possible, since component failures increa...

Joint models are an increasingly popular way to characterise the relationship between one or more longitudinal responses and an event of interest. However, for multivariate joint models the increased dimensionality and complexity of random effects present in the model specification are commensurate with increased computing time, hampering the imple...

Aims There is a lack of biomarkers validated for assessing clinical deterioration in patients with COVID-19 on presentation to secondary or tertiary care. This evaluation looked at the potential clinical application of C reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin, mid-regional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM) and white cell count to support prediction of c...

Assessing the relative merits of sportsmen and women whose careers took place far apart in time via a suitable statistical model is a complex task as any comparison is compromised by fundamental changes to the sport and society and often handicapped by the popularity of inappropriate traditional metrics. In this work we focus on cricket and the ran...

Aims: There is a lack of biomarkers validated for assessing clinical deterioration in COVID-19 patients upon presentation to secondary or tertiary care. This evaluation looked at the potential clinical application of C-Reactive Protein, Procalcitonin, Mid-Regional pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) and White Cell Count to support prediction of clinical...

Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods using quasi-random sequences, as opposed to pseudo-random samples, are proposed for use in the joint modelling of time-to-event and multivariate longitudinal data. The QMC integration framework extends the Monte Carlo Expectation Maximisation approaches that are commonly adopted, namely using ordinary and antithetic...

This study analysed the contemporary performance data of middle-distance athletes to determine (a) the number of competitive performances prior to the season’s fastest performance and (b) the time frame between their first and fastest competitive performances of that season. Using a publicly available database, data on the number of races and days...

How should academic staff engage in outreach with communities outside of the university? The need of academics to answer this question has intensified in the UK given the changing priorities of academic job roles, shaped by increasing institutional concern for widening participation, graduate employability and research impact in an era of austerity...

Attention has turned to welfare advice as a potential health and social care intervention. However, establishing direct evidence of health impact has proven difficult. This is compounded by the need to understand both the facilitative contexts and mechanisms through which this impact occurs. This study investigated if, how and in which circumstance...

Ranking sportsmen whose careers took place in different eras is often a contentious issue and the topic of much debate. We focus on cricket and examine what conclusions may be drawn about the ranking of test batsmen by using data on batting scores from the first test in 1877 onwards. The overlapping nature of playing careers is exploited to form a...

Ranking sportsmen whose careers took place in different eras is often a contentious issue and the topic of much debate. In this paper we focus on cricket and examine what conclusions may be drawn about the ranking of Test batsmen using data on batting scores from the first Test in 1877 onwards. The overlapping nature of playing careers is exploited...

Background: Joint modelling of longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes has received considerable attention over recent years. Commensurate with this has been a rise in statistical software options for fitting these models. However, these tools have generally been limited to a single longitudinal outcome. Here, we describe the classical joint model...

Background: In order to meet policy drivers on death in usual place of residence, it is key to understand how shared decision-making can be facilitated in practice. An integrated care pathway was implemented in primary care in the North East of England to facilitate death in usual place of residence. Aim: To understand how, for whom and in which...

Methodological development and clinical application of joint models of longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes have grown substantially over the past two decades. However, much of this research has concentrated on a single longitudinal outcome and a single event time outcome. In clinical and public health research, patients who are followed up over...

Joint modelling of longitudinal data and competing risks has grown over the past decade. Despite the recent methodological developments, there are still limited options for fitting these models in standard statistical software programs, which prohibits their adoption by applied biostatisticians. We summarize four published models, each of which has...

Background Available methods for the joint modelling of longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes have typically only allowed for a single longitudinal outcome and a solitary event time. In practice, clinical studies are likely to record multiple longitudinal outcomes. Incorporating all sources of data will improve the predictive capability of any mo...

Impactful academic research plays a stellar role in society, pressing to ask the question of how one measures the impact created by different areas of academic research. Measuring the societal, cultural, economic and scientific impact of research is currently the priority of the National Science Foundation, European Commission and several research...

Units of assessment and impact template. (DOCX)

Background: The need for palliative care is growing internationally with an increasing prevalence of non-malignant diseases. The integrated care pathway was implemented in primary care by multidisciplinary teams from 2009 in a locality in the North East of England. Fourteen general practitioner practices provided data for the study. Aim: To find...

Objective To determine whether the effect of South Asian ethnicity differs between studies of incidence and prognosis of coronary disease. Design Systematic literature review and meta-analysis, and cohort analysis from a national acute coronary syndrome (ACS) registry linked to mortality (National Institute of Cardiovascular Outcomes Research/Myoca...

In common with other non-linear models, the optimal design for a limiting dilution assay (LDA) depends on the value of the unknown parameter, θθ, in the model. Consequently optimal designs cannot be specified unless some assumptions are made about the possible values of θθ. If a prior distribution can be specified then a Bayesian approach can be ad...

Translational phases of study are important in evaluating whether a prognostic biomarker is likely to have impact on clinical practice but systematic evaluations of such evidence are lacking. To systematically evaluate the clinical usefulness of the published literature on the association of natriuretic peptides (NP) and prognosis in stable coronar...

The semiparametric Cox proportional hazards model is routinely adopted to model time-to-event data. Proportionality is a strong assumption, especially when follow-up time, or study duration, is long. Zeng and Lin (J. R. Stat. Soc., Ser. B, 69:1–30, 2007) proposed a useful generalisation through a family of transformation models which allow hazard r...

Adjusting for publication bias using different methods as previously described [25]. (0.06 MB RTF)

Review and selection of articles. (0.25 MB TIF)

Systematic review of 83 studies reporting effect of CRP on coronary events among patients with stable coronary disease, ordered according to number of events accrued. (0.80 MB RTF)

Definitions of 17 items of study reporting quality. (0.06 MB RTF)

Checklist summarising compliance with MOOSE guidelines. (0.06 MB DOC)

Systematic evaluations of the quality of research on a single prognostic biomarker are rare. We sought to evaluate the quality of prognostic research evidence for the association of C-reactive protein (CRP) with fatal and nonfatal events among patients with stable coronary disease.We searched MEDLINE (1966 to 2009) and EMBASE (1980 to 2009) and sel...

Available methods for joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data typically have only one failure type for the time to event outcome. We extend the methodology to allow for competing risks data. We fit a cause‐specific hazards sub‐model to allow for competing risks, with a separate latent association between longitudinal measurements and each...

Longitudinal data analysis is frequently complicated by drop-out. In this paper we consider several methods for dealing with drop-out afflicted data. Along with a general comparison, particular attention is paid to the consequences of model misspecification. The purpose of our approach is two-fold. We first deliberate the form of the drop-out model...