Perviz Asaria

• Imperial College London

Cardiovascular and renal conditions have both shared and distinct determinants. In this study, we applied unsupervised clustering to multiple rounds of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 1988 to 2018, and identified 10 cardiometabolic and renal phenotypes. These included a ‘low risk’ phenotype; two groups with average risk fa...

Background Cancers are the leading cause of death in England. Our aim was to estimate trends from 2002-2019 in mortality from leading cancers for the 314 districts in England. Methods We used vital registration data in England from 2002 to 2019 for ten leading cancers by sex according to the total number of deaths over the study period, and a resi...

Background Myocardial infarction mortality varies substantially within high-income countries. There is limited guidance on what interventions—including primary and secondary prevention, or improvement of care pathways and quality—can reduce myocardial infarction mortality. Our aim was to understand the contributions of incidence (event rate), pre-h...

Background: Industrialised countries had varied responses to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, and how they adapted to new situations and knowledge since it began. These differences in preparedness and policy may lead to different death tolls from COVID-19 as well as other diseases. Methods: We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian pro...

Industrialised countries have varied in their early response to the Covid-19 pandemic, and how they have adapted to new situations and knowledge since the pandemic began. These variations in preparedness and policy may lead to different death tolls from Covid-19 as well as from other diseases. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian probabilistic mod...

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01254-4.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has changed many social, economic, environmental and healthcare determinants of health. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to vital statistics data to estimate the all-cause mortality effect of the pandemic for 21 industrialized countries. From mid-February through May 2020, 206,000 (95% cr...

Background: Little information is available on how primary and comorbid acute myocardial infarction contribute to the mortality burden of acute myocardial infarction, the share of these deaths that occur during or after a hospital admission, and the reasons for hospital admission of those who died from acute myocardial infarction. Our aim was to fi...

Aims: The aim of this study is to determine proportions of major ischaemic heart disease (IHD) events that are fatal and where they occur, in an era of rapidly falling IHD mortality. Methods and results: Individual person linkage of national data sets identified all IHD hospitalizations and deaths in New Zealand from December 2008 to November 20...

Primary prevention guidelines focus on risk, often assuming negligible aversion to medication. Yet most subjects discontinue primary prevention statins within 3 years. We quantify real-world distribution of medication disutility, and separately calculate average utilities for a range of risk strata. We randomly sampled 360 members of the general pu...

Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is the leading cause of death worldwide and its prevention is a public health priority. We analysed worldwide IHD mortality data from the World Health Organisation as of February 2014 by country, age and income. Age-standardised mortality rates by country were calculated. We constructed a cartogram which is an algorith...

Heart failure (HF) imposes both direct costs to healthcare systems and indirect costs to society through morbidity, unpaid care costs, premature mortality and lost productivity. The global economic burden of HF is not known. We estimated the overall cost of heart failure in 2012, in both direct and indirect terms, across the globe. Existing country...

In most countries, people who have a low socioeconomic status and those who live in poor or marginalised communities have a higher risk of dying from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) than do more advantaged groups and communities. Smoking rates, blood pressure, and several other NCD risk factors are often higher in groups with low socioeconomic sta...

Background: Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is the leading cause of death worldwide. The World Health Organisation (WHO) collects mortality data coded using the International Statistical Classification of Diseases (ICD) code. Methods: We analysed IHD deaths world-wide between 1995 and 2009 and used the UN population database to calculate age-speci...

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has more than halved in England since the 1980s, but there are few data on small-area trends. We estimated CVD mortality by ward in 5-year intervals between 1982 and 2006, and examined trends in relation to starting mortality, region and community deprivation. Methods We analysed CVD death rates usi...

The UN High-Level Meeting on Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) in September, 2011, is an unprecedented opportunity to create a sustained global movement against premature death and preventable morbidity and disability from NCDs, mainly heart disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes, and chronic respiratory disease. The increasing global crisis in NCDs is a...

The UN High-Level Meeting on Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) in September, 2011, is an unprecedented opportunity to create a sustained global movement against premature death and preventable morbidity and disability from NCDs, mainly heart disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes, and chronic respiratory disease. The increasing global crisis in NCDs is a...

> People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. Orwell Risk communication has long been acknowledged to be fraught with pitfalls and subject to manipulation. The magnitude of harm and the publicity given to a risk can grossly sway perception o...

The cardiovascular risk reduction associated with different statins for the prevention of cardiovascular disease and the cardiovascular risk increase associated with excess dietary intake of fat have been quantified. However, these relative risks have never been directly juxtaposed to determine whether an increase in relative risk by 1 activity cou...

In 2005, WHO set a global goal to reduce rates of death from chronic (non-communicable) disease by an additional 2% every year. To this end, we investigated how many deaths could potentially be averted over 10 years by implementation of selected population-based interventions, and calculated the financial costs of their implementation. We selected...

Measles has reappeared in the United Kingdom, with 449 confirmed cases to the end of May 2006 compared with 77 in 2005, and the first death since 1992.(1) (2) Cases are occurring in inadequately vaccinated children and in young adults, leading to concerns that endemic measles could re-emerge. But, as with smallpox, measles could be eradicated. It h...