Peng Zhou

• PhD in Economics
• Professor of Applied Economics at Cardiff University

Was the European marriage pattern an important contributor to England's precocious economic development? This article examines this question by embedding the possibility in a historically substantiated demographic-economic model, supported by both cross-section and long time series evidence. Persistent high mortality and powerful mortality shocks i...

We use available methods for testing macro models to evaluate a model of China over the period from Deng Xiaoping’s reforms up until the crisis period. Bayesian ranking methods are heavily influenced by controversial priors on the degree of price/wage rigidity. When the overall models are tested by Likelihood or Indirect Inference methods, the New...

The twentieth century United States provides a natural experiment to measure the strength and persistence of entrepreneurial cultures. Assuming immigrants bear the cultures of their birth place, comparison of revealed entrepreneurial propensities of US immigrant groups in 1910 and 2000 reflected these backgrounds. Two measures of entrepreneurial cu...

Both analysis of international trade and the knowledge resource theory of the firm imply that language skills should play a vital role in exporting. This may be apparent to large multinationals with sites in many different linguistic locations, but we show it is less obvious to smaller companies. With data on the language used by each of a large sa...

This paper investigates the long-run nexus between wealth inequality and aggregate output using a DSGE model in which wealth inequality endogenously affects individual entrepreneurship incentives, thereby influencing aggregate output. Our model passes the indirect inference test against the UK data from 1870 to 2015. We find that shocks to aggregat...

Purpose This study conducts a systematic literature review on the determination of urban land value to offer a comprehensive understanding of the methods, datasets, themes and factors of land value. The study aims to identify research gaps and suggest directions for future research in urban land value. Design/methodology/approach The study adopts...

This paper attempts to describe and explain the long-term evolution of wage inequality in imperial China, covering over two millennia from the Han dynasty to the Qing dynasty (202 BCE-1912 CE). Based on historical government records of official salaries, commodity prices, and agricultural productivity, we convert various forms of salaries to equiva...

Open innovation serves as a critical pathway for aligning Sustainable Business Models (SBMs) with the dual imperatives of sustainability and the digital economy. This editorial review synthesizes insights from theoretical frameworks, particularly the Resource-Based View (RBV) and Transaction Cost Theory (TCT), integrated with the Technology-Organiz...

This paper demonstrates that green-labeling forms an integral part of financial investment vehicles. We use data from the EU green bond market to show that green labels reduce the required yields on bonds (the “greenium”) in the long run, with the effect being more pronounced when labels are externally certified. We also find that green bonds can i...

To understand the slow adoption of blockchain technology by organisations, we conduct a systematic literature review of adoption factors using a mixed-methods approach. Using thematic analysis, 880 factors are identified and grouped into 29 themes, which offer a comprehensive overview of the literature. Using statistical analysis, the identified fa...

This paper examines cross-country heterogeneities and over-time changes of the role of social media marketing (SMM) in the luxury fashion industry. A comprehensive literature review is conducted on customer value, purchase intention, and engagement motivation to understand the causes and effects of SMM. Based on the survey data in China and the UK,...

This paper proposes a nonlinear teaching approach, based on learning theories in cognitive psychology, with a special focus on large-cohort economics modules. The fundamental rationale is to match the features of teaching with the nature of learning. This approach was implemented in an undergraduate economics module, which received qualitative feed...

Facing the sanctions from the West since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia quickly converged to a strong counter-sanction strategy. The US and the EU staggered the strengths of sanctions in turns, with the EU first imposing relatively stronger commercial sanctions first and the US relaying with stronger financial sanctions later. Using US-EU...

JEL classification: L53 L21 H71 H25 Keywords: R&D Innovation Knowledge spillover A B S T R A C T We model how R&D enters the innovation system in four ways (intramural, extramural, cooperative, and spillover). Despite measuring three different spillovers together, for a very large sample of European enterprises we conclude that the productivity eff...

This paper examines the historical development and crosssectional heterogeneities of Financial Market Infrastructure (FMI). From an evolutionary perspective, we review and compare FMIs in the US, Europe, and China. We identify an emerging trend in which the development of FMI is transitioning from digitalization to tokenization with the rise of Dis...

Immigrants and offshore workers become important disturbing factors of domestic employment in the globalized economy. In this study we build a model with this feature to test how the three groups of workers in the labour force interact using a panel data of 155 countries over the period 1990–2015. We find that while immigrants replaced native worke...

The overall purpose of this study is to explore and examine whether high-performance work systems (HPWS) can impact thriving at work and job burnout via resilience at work among nurses in Chinese public hospitals. Specifically, it draws on social exchange theory to conceptualize a positive relationship between HPWS and resilience at work. Then, bas...

Innovation is identified as the fundamental force of economic growth (Romer 1990; Aghion and Howitt 1992), which is the most significant contributor to human wellbeing. The outcome of innovation, i.e., new knowledge, needs to be translated by entrepreneurs to create economic value. However, this process is not trivial. The gap between innovation an...

We design a series of simulation-based thought experiments to deductively evaluate the causal effects of various factors on wealth inequality (the distribution) and social mobility (dynamics of the distribution). We find that uncertainty per se can lead to a “natural” degree of inequality and returns-related factors contribute more than earnings-re...

This paper shows that R&D subsidy policies at the European Union (EU) and national levels stimulated labor productivity in Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) in the years after their entry to the EU. However, the average impact of national funding on labor productivity was higher for countries in the Western control group than in the CEE...

This research synthesizes social exchange, organizational culture, and social identity theories to explore the boundary conditions of the relationship between high-performance work systems and employee organizational citizenship behavior. In particular, it draws on the China-specific management context. In this country, in spite of the wide use of...

The COVID pandemic reveals the fragility of the global financial market during rare disasters. Conventional safe-haven assets like gold can be used to hedge against ordinary risks, but tail dependence can substantially reduce the hedging effectiveness. In contrast, green bonds focus on long-term, sustainable investments, so they become an important...

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00822-9

We propose a flow-based criterion (intensity of use) and a stock-based criterion (stability of value) for choosing an anchor currency. This conceptual framework is applied to analyzing the RCEP region. According to the estimated TVP-VAR model, the influence of the US dollar in the region was weakened during the global financial crisis and the COVID...

The global financial crisis since 2008 revived the debate on whether or not and to what extent financial development contributes to economic growth. This paper reviews different theoretical schools of thought and empirical findings on this nexus, building on which we aim to develop a unified, microfounded model in a small open economy setting to ac...

We develop a quantitative model that is consistent with three principal building blocks of Unified Growth Theory: the break-out from economic stagnation, the build-up to the Industrial Revolution, and the onset of the fertility transition. Our analysis suggests that England’s escape from the Malthusian trap was triggered by the demographic catastro...

To capture the role of politics in tourism, we propose a novel measure to quantify political relations based on text analysis of published diplomatic statements. We explain how political relations affect outbound tourist flows from China to Japan and Korea. Estimated on monthly data (1997m1-2018m12), our model shows how China-Japan disputes affect...

This paper attempts to provide an up-to-date depiction and analysis of the consumer’s attitude towards sustainability of fast fashion products in the UK. Four related strands of literature are reviewed to establish a tri-component model of attitude (ABC), i.e., Affective, Behavioural and Cognitive. A wide set of determinants for attitude is identif...

This paper proposes a new filter technique to separate trend and cycle based on stylised economic properties, rather than relying on ad hoc statistical properties such as frequency. Given the theoretical separation between economic growth and business cycle literature, it is necessary to make measures of trend and cycle match what the respective th...

The ability to live independently plays a crucial role in the mental and psychological wellbeing of the disabled. To achieve this goal, most governments spend a substantial budget on home adaptation projects. It has been observed that schemes with different target clients (residents versus landlords) are different in efficiency and effectiveness. T...

This paper examines how the risky lending activities of the state‐owned enterprises (SOEs) affect the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy in China with a shadow banking sector. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) macroeconomic model with two production sectors, where the SOEs have access to low cost funds from the com...

Fiscal devolution ensured that by April 2019 the Welsh Government and local authorities controlled nearly £5 billion of tax revenues, corresponding to 30% of their combined current spending. The taxes devolved are Council Tax and Non-Domestic (Business) Rates, Income Tax (partially), the Land Transaction Tax and Landfill Disposals Tax (replacing St...

This paper analyses the duration of firm-bank relationships and examines what drives firms in China to change from one bank loan provider to another. Matched data of firm-loan-duration to bank provides a unique panel data set of relationship between China’s listed firms and their lending banks consisting of 2,102 firms listed on both the Shanghai S...

This chapter applies the semi-structured discussion approach to organising seminars in higher education using an undergraduate Health Economics module as a case study. It provides the theoretical rationale by re-investigating the different roles of lectures and seminars in learning and teaching. Evidence shows that it significantly improves the stu...

This paper investigates the public-sector wage premium (PSWP) in the UK using a microfounded economic model and indirect inference (II). To answer the question whether there is public-sector wage premium, we ask an equivalent question – whether a model assuming perfect competition can explain the data. The neoclassical labour economic model is test...

Devolution of taxes to sub-national jurisdictions could reduce expected tax revenue if some households move to lower tax regimes, constraining devolved government policy. This paper develops an indirect approach to establishing lower bound revenue impacts of possible devolved tax changes by allowing for tax-induced migration. The results suggest th...

Our article on ‘Late marriage as a contributor to the industrial revolution in England’ is intended to show that the evidence is consistent with the European marriage pattern being a major influence on long‐run English economic development, through the accumulation of human capital, broadly defined. Edwards and Ogilvie assert that our approach is i...

This paper investigates the public sector wage premium in the UK over the first decade of the 21st century using both econometric and economic modelling methods. A comprehensive literature review is conducted to summarise the four popular types of methods adopted by the traditional microeconometric studies. Application of these methods results in a...

In public policy planning and budgeting, the health issues and homeless issues tend to be interrelated and reinforced by each other, but this mutual causality is usually ignored in the existing literature. This paper provides an unbiased estimate of a structural equation model taking endogeneity into account. A questionnaire is designed based on th...

This paper investigates price rigidity in UK consumer and producer markets, by estimating the hazard functions of price changes in microdata which are then used in macrodata modelling. We explore the mechanism of price setting using survival analysis in order to see what factors drive the observed price rigidity. We find significant effects of macr...

Mutual fund governance has been a great concern among practitioners and has received considerable attention in the finance literature. This paper aims to assess the impact of mutual fund board structure and ownership structure on mutual fund fees. This study fill the gap on the literature by focusing on the Egyptian mutual funds during the period o...

This paper critically reviews the literature on public sector wage premium, especially in the developed countries like the USA and the UK. It is found that the pay advantage is persistent over the latest half century, but it started to decline since the late-1990s; in particular, females tend to enjoy a higher wage premium than males. A key technic...

The production and distribution of food is a topic of perennial interest. Specific concern arises over the provision of foods that have been prepared in accordance with religious requirements because they place additional demands and constraints upon methods of food production and distribution. This paper explores the attitude of consumers towards...

As the economic extension of the political institutions, the SOEs have contributed both directly and indirectly to the growth miracle since 1978, but a continual government-led reform is conducted to adapt the SOEs to the new challenges and opportunities. The extent to which the reform can improve the efficiency and competitiveness of the SOEs larg...

This paper reviews a model of bubbles under the assumption of heterogeneous rational traders. In the presence of dispersion of opinions, or sequential awareness, financial bubbles are justified by the interactions between rational arbitrageurs and behavioural traders. Timing is a very important component in the trader's strategy. This model is then...

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the feasibility of investing in a new milk powder factory, based on a case study of leading domestic producers in China and Netherlands. A key issue is the cost of the project, but a high cost does not mean it is not economically feasible, nor does a low cost guarantee the investment. Instead, systematic indi...

Dairy commodity price tends to be volatile with prospect to surge. This feature entails the necessity of obtaining the quantitative relationship to forecast the consequences following price change. Elasticity is employed to quantify the responsiveness between price and supply/demand. The dairy industry is inelastic in general, but elastic for some...

Traditional money demand function is based on partial equilibrium model, which only focuses on the liquidity market. Though working quite well in practice, the empirical results of these models are not robust due to probable misspecifications and omission of important factors. This paper employs the latest development in general equilibrium model,...

Most of the theoretical and empirical literatures are dedicated to selecting a more empirically sound model in economics and finance. When choosing from competing alternatives, the most popular criterion is econometric goodness of fit of models against structured data (cross-sectional, time-series and panel). It is the data that determines whether...

We focus on the role of the government in the provision of investment in China, through the medium of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model of the economy in which the form of the production function reflects this governmental role. Using indirect inference, we estimate and test for the elasticity of substitution between government and non...

Out-of-sample forecasting tests of DSGE models against time-series benchmarks such as an unrestricted VAR are increasingly used to check (a) the specification and (b) the forecasting capacity of these models. We carry out a Monte Carlo experiment on a widely-used DSGE model to investigate the power of these tests. We find that in specification test...

We extend and test on long time series evidence for England the contention by Foreman-­Peck (2011) that the West European Marriage Pattern (Hajnal, 1965) was an essential reason for precocious Western European economic development. Persistent high mortality and powerful mortality shocks in the 14 th and 15 th centuries lowered life expectations (Ha...

Consumer concerns over the provenance of food that has been prepared in accordance with religious requirements has risen in importance. Instances of improper identification and sale of Halal meat-based products in particular have given rise to questions over the authenticity of such foods. Despite this and the rising demand for Halal foods across t...

This study will explore and test potential changes to the structural and delivery mechanisms for independent living adaptations. This is in order to move towards the Welsh Government goal of ensuring that adaptations can be delivered more speedily to those who need them. In doing so, it will help reduce inherent inequalities in the current system b...

本书是一本高级宏观经济学教材, 从基本的微观经济学原理出发, 配合几何图表和代数推理精确对应, 通过总体均衡方法论推导和阐述现代宏观经济学的核心内容, 适合本科高年级学生和研究生使用。同时, 本书每章最后的应用部分集中探讨现实的相关政策以及与现实世界相关的问题, 尤其还涉及2008年全球经济危机, 内容新颖, 理论融合于实际。

The present research shows entrepreneurial culture contributes to the widely noted difference in entrepreneurial propensities between men and women. The consequences of the assumed differential importance of household and family generate testable hypotheses about the gender effects of entrepreneurial culture. The principal hypothesis is that there...

We construct a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model of the interaction between demography and the economy for six centuries of English history. At the core of the four overlapping generations, rational expectations model is household choice about target number and quality of children, as well as female age at first marriage. The parameters...

This paper uses unpublished retailer-level microdata underlying UK consumer price indices to investigate price rigidity. Based on the conventional method, little rigidity is found in frequency of price change, since the implied price duration is only 5.5 months. However, it significantly underestimates the true duration (9.3 months) as suggested by...

价格指数是政府和公众作经济决策的重要依据，抽样方法和统计方法的选择直接影响了价格指数的准确性和公信力。本文通过对欧陆和英国两大价格指数体系的比较研究，介绍了西方一些新兴的抽样方法和统计方法，同时厘清了不同价格指数之间的区别和联系，以供国内价格指数的编制者和使用者借鉴，从而提升价格指数编制和使用的科学性。

房地产行业问题是中国当前受到政策关注度、公众关注度最高的一个热点问题之一，而房价指数则成为政府和公众判断和决策的最重要信号。目前中国普遍承认的除国家统计局和国家发改委定期对外公布的房价指数外，非官方发布的房价指数统计并不能保证定期发布且权威性不足，房价信息来源相对单一。本文首先对英国现有的官方及非官方的房价指数进行系统性介绍，并提出三点评价房价指数的优劣标准，以供国内房价指数的编制者和使用者进行借鉴。

This paper tests the strength and persistence of cultural influences on entrepreneurship over the best part of a century. Comparison of marginal self-employment propensities of US immigrant groups in 1910 and 2000 suggests a number of stable customary stimuli, deduced from national origins. In accordance with the 'cultural critique', the English we...