Paulo Gonçalves

• Doctor of Philosophy
• Professor (Full) at Università della Svizzera italiana

There are basic principles derived from a proper understanding of stocks and flows that managers should observe to ensure that they make sound decisions in practice. The article describes six such principles, reviewing a practical application for each. At times when managers get things wrong, potentially compromising organizational performance, the...

Benefiting from historically favorable conditions (e.g. low costs, fertile land, and abundant water), pistachio producers in Rafsanjan, Iran, have flourished, with pistachio orchards and production growing dramatically since the 1970s. Today, however, the enormous increase in water consumption associated with pistachio production has severely deple...

Previous research on the Bullwhip Effect shows that information visibility—Point-Of-Sale (POS) data or supply-chain partner-inventory data—can reduce the amplification of orders in a supply chain. This study compiles and analyzes the data from two previous experiments with the beer game (Croson and Donohue, 2003, 2006) to gain insight on the specif...

System Dynamics research on capability traps, where organizations remain in low capability and performance equilibrium because of poor resource allocation, spans over two decades and various industries, including agriculture, industry, and humanitarian aid. However, there is a gap in understanding how specific capability attributes affect resource...

The Sustainable Development Goals present a call to action for all countries to accelerate the implementation of solutions to address the world's biggest challenges. While policy portfolios to achieve such goals should be varied, often dominant policy narratives cluster around limited themes. We use a grounded theory approach to elicit causality fr...

A team of researchers worked with public health officials and clinical decision makers to create real-time models to help predict COVID-19 cases and hospital bed needs in the East of England. These models used up-to-date data and allowed officials to explore different scenarios and make informed plans. The models have also been applied in other cou...

Purpose Due to the unknown location, size and timing of disasters, the rapid response required by humanitarian operations (HO) faces high uncertainty and limited time to raise funds. These harsh realities make HO challenging. This study aims to systematically capture the complex dynamic relationships between operations in humanitarian settings. De...

The World Health Organization estimates that 5 to 15% of amputees in any given population have access to a prosthesis. This figure is likely to worsen as the amputee population is expected to double by 2050, straining the limited capacity of prosthetics services. Without proper and timely prosthetic interventions, amputees with major lower-limb los...

The ongoing political crisis in Venezuela is the cause of one of the most substantial migratory movements in recent history, attracting the attention of academics interested in social-impact. This study analyses the Brazilian Federal Government’s Operational response to receive and assist Venezuelans migrating into Brazil. We develop a process mode...

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected Food Supply Chains (FSCs), causing impacts that interfere with the normal flow of operations. This paper analyzes the COVID-19 impacts on FSCs and the main strategies to minimize their adverse effects. The research adopts a scoping review to identify impacts and strategies and an empirical study cons...

As a result of steady population growth, aging population, and significantly increasing rates of diabetes and musculoskeletal conditions, the World Health Organization expects the global persons with amputation (PwA) population to double by 2050. Without proper and timely prosthetic interventions for those having gone through major lower-limb amput...

Problem Definition: We empirically examine a complementary behavioral source of the bullwhip effect that has been previously overlooked in the literature: that individuals order more aggressively (i.e., overreact) when they face shortages than when they hold inventory. Methodology/Results: We conduct a behavioral experiment using the Beer Distribut...

The COVID‐19 pandemic presented the world to a novel class of problems highlighting distinctive features that rendered standard academic research and participatory processes less effective in properly informing public health interventions in a timely way. The urgency and rapidity of the emergency required tight integration of novel and high‐quality...

Abstract Paper aims This paper analyzes the food aid supply and distribution for famine relief by the World Food Programme (WFP) in Ethiopia. Food insecurity has increasingly affected people around the world. Furthermore, the characteristics of the provision of humanitarian aid in insecure regions pose several additional challenges over traditional...

The epidemics and pandemics can severely affect food supply chains, including producers, retailers, wholesalers, and customers. To minimize their impacts, it is fundamental to implement effective policies that ensure continuity in the provision, affordability, and distribution of basic food items. This research identifies the main impacts of pandem...

The procurement of products and services is a critical and challenging process for humanitarian organizations (HOs), accounting for approximately 65% of the costs of relief operations. Despite its importance, procurement in humanitarian operations remains under examined. This study reviews 51 scholarly articles related to procurement in the context...

Natural disasters affect people and their livelihoods daily in the world, posing a challenge to humanitarian organisations whose mandate is to ensure that disasters are responded to or mitigated through timely supply of relief aid. CARE Zimbabwe, one of the biggest humanitarian organisations operating in the Masvingo Province, faces difficulties in...

This research supports the United Nations Children’s Fund’s (UNICEF) conceptualization, planning and implementation of a campaign for distribution of more than 12 million mosquito nets in Ivory Coast. Procured from four different suppliers in Asia, the nets were transported to the two ports in Ivory Coast before being pre-positioned at 71 Health Di...

With detrimental effects of climate change already here and appropriate action still lagging behind, work on sustainability that applies system dynamics is more urgent than ever. In July 2018, a number of researchers - mainly active in Europe - commenced an open dialogue on system dynamics and sustainability at emlyon business school in Lyon. The a...

Vector control, particularly distribution of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs), constitutes one of the major pathways to prevent and reduce malaria transmission. ITN distribution campaigns face several challenges, such as inadequate funding, budgetary constraints, hard-to-reach areas, limited transportation, and market and price volatility. While...

Although Switzerland enjoys a mature e-commerce sector and online marketing with widespread use of social media, large Swiss nonprofit organizations (NPOs) still adopt mainly off-line marketing and mass marketing strategies to support their fund-raising efforts. Mass marketing techniques are expensive and require a large financial investment, which...

Paper aims This paper portrays three examples of system dynamics modes applied to social good. Originality System dynamics has a strong tradition of applied research addressing complex social issues ranging from world and urban dynamics to the spread of infectious diseases. System dynamics can provide insight and inform long-term policy in complex...

Several relief organisations preposition supplies in preparation for disaster response. We show how the structure of prepositioning decisions resemble newsvendor decisions and how common newsvendor biases could affect prepositioning performance. To explore prepositioning biases, we run a behavioural experiment of a prepositioning problem with 20 pr...

When demand exceeds supply, retailers hedge against shortages by placing multiple orders with multiple suppliers, exceeding customer demand and leading to excess capacity, excess inventory, low capacity utilization and financial losses. This paper provides a comprehensive causal loop diagram and a formal mathematical model of a subset of supplier–r...

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) face tension between economic growth and environmental impact. Tourism fuels growth, but the resulting solid waste and other pollutants threaten the SIDS’ natural beauty, quality of life for residents, attractiveness to tourists, and economic success. We assess the tension between tourism‐driven economic growth...

We study ordering behavior in a multi-item newsvendor problem with resource constraints (the newsstand problem). We run a laboratory experiment of a newsstand problem with 95 undergraduate students, using a two-product portfolio while manipulating a budget constraint according to Abdel-Malek and Montanari (2005a)'s newsstand problem analysis. We ob...

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to employ concepts drawn from communication theory to develop a structural model that it is hoped will improve the understanding of the impact of effective communication mechanisms on the performance of humanitarian organizations. Design/methodology/approach The research is based on a case study of a single h...

In this article, we present our findings regarding promoting group drawing activities in order to facilitate the learning of systemic aspects of projects. We discuss the approach we used to engage the students and foster learning in our classes. We used group drawing activities in two project management undergraduate courses. The courses, which inv...

Despite the need for inter-organizational collaboration within a humanitarian setting in recent years, there are a considerable number of challenges to efficient collaboration among humanitarian organizations (HOs) operating after natural disasters. Up to this point, scholars have explored the inhibitors and drivers of collaboration in a number of...

In this study, we use a multi-method approach to examine the following questions: when faced with explicit profit gaps, does a firm's strategic orientation influence manager perceptions regarding the ability of various tactical options to resolve the gap, do managers feel pressure to pursue certain tactical options over others, and what implication...

This chapter presents theoretical concepts that explain how bounded rationality arises from misperceptions of feedback structure and feedback dynamics. In particular, we discuss and exemplify how misperception of feedback dynamics can lead to the poor use of heuristics and decision biases. We conclude with some behavioral implications of the misper...

This chapter presents theoretical concepts that explain how bounded rationality arises from misperceptions of feedback structure and feedback dynamics. In particular, we discuss and exemplify how misperception of feedback dynamics can lead to the poor use of heuristics and decision biases. We conclude with some behavioral implications of the misper...

There are a number of collaborative practices among humanitarian organisations aiming of improving the effectiveness and efficiency of humanitarian operations. This study elaborates the objectives of collaboration among international humanitarian organisations, and reviews various types of collaborative network and dyadic initiatives in place in th...

Sub-Saharan Africa is home to 24.7 million people living with HIV of an estimated total of 35.0 million people globally in 2013. It also accounts for almost 70% of the new HIV infections globally. In West Africa, Cote d'Ivoire has the highest HIV prevalence, or 3.7% of the 2012 population, and the two virus types HIV-1 & HIV-2 are present. From an...

When final customer demand exceeds available supply, retailers often hedge against shortages by inflating orders to their suppliers.While this amplification in orders is clearly described in the literature, there is little experimental research quantifying the factors influencing these amplifications. We use an experiment to test subjects’ ordering...

Behavioral studies of the newsvendor model have revealed systematic underordering for low-cost products and overordering for high-cost products. This systematic deviation from optimal ordering is known as the pull-to-center effect. This chapter proposes a joint newsvendor framework or portfolio that bundles two products of different importance as a...

This case study describes a continuous improvement experience, conducted from 2002 to 2014 in Sao Paulo, Brazil, within 47 Project-Based Learning MBA courses, involving aproximatelly 1.400 students. The experience report will focus on four themes: (1) understanding the main dynamics present in MBA courses (2) planning a systemic intervention in ord...

This article describes the project-based learning environment created to support project management graduate courses. The paper will focus on the learning context and procedures followed for 13 years, in 47 project-based learning MBA courses, involving approximately 1.400 students and 34 community partners.

In this study we provide a multi-method examination of firm tendencies to adopt certain tactical solutions to resolve performance dilemmas. We consider the complex and dynamic paths through which improvement tactics impact firm performance, as well as the impact of misalignment between operational strategies and the specific tactics pursued. Our ar...

We extend behavioral research in newsvendor settings by experimentally exploring the effect of power on newsvendor order decisions under two profit conditions. We also analyze people's risk profiles and explore if the expo-power utility function, which relaxes the assumption of constant absolute risk aversion, explains observed behavior.

Whenever intrepid researchers venture into new terrain, they find that they require knowledge outside of their formal training. This paper reviews bodies of knowledge for operations management (OM) researchers interested in the new area of Behavioral Operations. We highlight theoretical constructs and empirical phenomena from cognitive psychology,...

Prepositioning of emergency supplies is a critical task for the success of humanitarian relief operations. However, little is known about how humanitarian practitioners actually make prepositioning decisions. In a laboratory (lab) experiment based on the Newsvendor model, humanitarian practitioners prepositioned emergency supplies of different impo...

The study seeks to understand the drivers and barriers for horizontal coordination among humanitarian organizations from both practitioners and academics sources. It identifies four categories of factors - environmental factors, factors associated with donors’ role, interorganizational factors and organizational factors - influencing coordination e...

Several humanitarian organizations today find themselves thinly stretched in multiple protracted relief and recovery operations around the world. At the same time, the need for humanitarian relief and recovery operations is forecasted to increase dramatically in the next decades. Hence, humanitarian organizations will face increased challenges to p...

One of the most fundamental principles in system dynamics is the premise that the structure of the system will generate its behavior. Such a philosophical position has fostered the development of a number of formal methods aimed at understanding the causes of model behavior. Behavior, to most in the field of system dynamics, is commonly interpreted...

Simulation modeling can be valuable in many areas of management science, but it is often costly, time-consuming, and difficult to do. To reduce these problems, system dynamics researchers have previously developed standard pieces of model structure, called molecules, that can be reused in different models. However, the models assembled from these m...

Simulation modeling can be valuable in many areas of management science, but is often costly, time-consuming and difficult to do. This paper describes a new approach to simulation that has the potential to be much cheaper, faster and easier to use in many situations. In this approach, users start with a very simple generic model and then progressiv...

Against the backdrop of over two hundred thousand people dead or missing and millions of people homeless after China's massive earthquake and Myanmar devastating cyclone, forecasts estimate that natural and man-made disasters are likely to increase five-fold both in number and impact over the next 50 years. Hence, the need for disaster relief provi...

Hybrid seed suppliers experience excessive and costly rates of seed returns from dealers, who order in advance of grower demand realization and may return unsold seeds at the end of the season. Sales representatives know they must carefully gather information on grower demand for seed types and quantities to improve their demand forecast and better...

As a consequence of faster time-to-market and shorter product life cycles, companies today introduce new products more frequently. While new products can potentially bring tremendous value, they also pose enormous challenges as companies are most vulnerable during new product transitions. Due to the high stakes of new product transitions, planning...

Faster time to market and shorter product life cycles are pushing companies to introduce new products more frequently. While new products can offer tremendous value, product introductions and transitions pose enormous challenges to managers. In studying product introductions, the authors found that a common handicap was the lack of a formal process...

Paulo Gonçalves (Ph.D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology) is an assistant professor in the Management Science Department at the University of Miami's School of Business Administration. His research focuses on customer responses to supply chain dynamics; specifically on over-ordering dynamics due to competition for scarce resource. He received...

We evaluate, in an experiment with the Beer Distribution Game, a complementary behavioral source of the bullwhip effect that has been previously ignored in the literature: overreaction to backlogs. By separating the estimation of the response to inventory and backlog, we find that players treat backlog differently than inventory. Contrary to our ex...

While several methods aimed at understanding the causes of model behavior have been proposed in recent years, formal model analysis remains an important and challenging area in system dynamics. This paper describes a mathematical method to incorporate eigenvectors to the more traditional eigenvalue analysis of dynamic models. The proposed method de...

Though often analyzed separately, supply chain instability and customer demand interact through product availability. We investigate the feedback between supply chain performance and demand variability in a model grounded in a first-hand study of the hybrid push–pull production system used by a major semiconductor manufacturer. While customers' res...

Essay One The Impact of Shortages on Push-Pull Production Systems This paper explores the impact of endogenous customer demand on supply chain instability. It investigates how a semiconductor manufacturer's hybrid push-pull production system responds to customer demand, when inventory availability influences demand. While customers' response to var...

The Transportation Science and Logistics (TSL) Section Dissertation Prize Competition is the oldest and most prestigious competition for doctoral dissertations in the transportation science and logistics area. The 2004 TSL dissertation prize committee consisted of Professor Ravi Ahuja (University of Florida), Professor Amy Cohn (Michigan University...

An updated version of this paper has been accepted for publication: Oliva, R., Abdulla, H., and P. Goncalves. 2021. Do managers overreact when in backlog?Evidence of scope neglect from a supply chain experiment.Manufacturing & Service Operations Management (forthcoming). Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356645824_Do_manag...

One of the most common syndromes in product development is firefighting, the unplanned allocation of resources to fix problems discovered late in a product's development cycle. While it has been widely criticized in both the popular and scholarly literature, firefighting is a common occurrence in most product development organizations. Product deve...

This research explores the causes of dealer demand amplification leading to a high volume of seed returns in a typical agribusiness supply chain. Seed production occurs months in advance of grower demand, resulting in a limited supply of specific seeds. To hedge against shortages, dealers inflate orders. If demand materializes, dealers benefit from...

When demand exceeds supply, retailers hedge against shortages by placing multiple orders with multiple suppliers. This artificial growth in orders can severely affect suppliers, creating excess capacity, excess inventory, low capacity utilization, financial and reputation losses. This paper contributes to the understanding of order amplification ca...

One of the most common syndromes in product development is firefighting, the unplanned allocation of resources to fix problems discovered late in a product's development cycle. While it has been widely criticized in both the popular and scholarly literature, firefighting is a common occurrence in most product development organizations. Product deve...

This research explores the impact of endogenous customer demand on supply chain instability. It investigates how a semiconductor manufacturer's hybrid push-pull production system responds to customer demand, when inventory availability influences demand. While customers' response to variable service level represents an important concern in industry...

There have been a number of important contributions to the field of system dynamics in the recent past. One of the most exciting has been the development of eigenvalue elasticity theory (Forrester 1982, Kampmann 1996), which promises to increase our capacity to understand our models, enhancing our ability to get insight from modeling. In this paper...

When demand exceeds supply, customers often hedge against shortages by placing multiple orders with multiple suppliers. The resulting demand bubbles creates instability leading to excess capacity, excess inventory, low capacity utilization, and financial and reputation losses for suppliers and customers. This paper contributes to the understanding...

Models in the system dynamics tradition often consider that firms can be aggregated in a single sector. The implicit assumption is that individual firms move in phase with each other. After careful development of a simple model of two firms coupled through market share, a set of simulation tests suggests that firms can entrain even when they are di...

Hoarding is a common occurrence during shortages of "hot" products in industries ranging from oil to toys and from computers to pharmaceuticals. Often the induced shortage due to hoarding is much stronger than the original trigger. This paper investigates the impact of dealer hoarding on generating large amounts of seeds returned to a seed corn sup...