Paula Maçaira

• Doctor of Engineering
• Adjunct professor at Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro

Power output from wind turbines is influenced by wind speed, but the traditional theoretical power curve approach introduces uncertainty into wind energy forecasting models. This is because it assumes a consistent power output for a given wind speed. To address this issue, a new nonparametric method has been proposed. It uses K-means clustering to...

Background The lack of precise definitions and terminological consensus about the impact studies of COVID-19 vaccination leads to confusing statements from the scientific community about what a vaccination impact study is. Objective The present work presents a narrative review, describing and discussing COVID-19 vaccination impact studies, mapping...

Paper aims: To predict monthly corn, soybean, and sugar spot prices in Brazil using hybrid forecasting techniques. Originality: This study combines the Singular Spectrum Analysis with different forecasting methods. Research method: This paper presents a set of hybrid forecasting approaches combining Singular Spectrum Analysis(SSA) with different...

In recent years, consideration of reanalysis data has gained space and importance globally as a promising alternative for climate studies that suffer from an absence or scarcity of data. Wind speed time series can be obtained from these bases for various purposes, such as inferring the potential of sites for wind power generation. These projections...

The COVID-19 pandemic impacted several sectors of the economy, including the Brazilian electricity sector. Motivated by the considerable changes in energy consumption behavior in Brazil during the pandemic, the present study conducts an application of several statistical models to quantify the impact of restrictive measures imposed by the governmen...

Accurate electricity demand forecasting, especially in the short run, is critical for the optimal management of power systems. However, high-frequency time series usually contain unique stylized facts, such as multiple seasonal patterns, which imposes an extra challenge in accurate estimation and forecasting. Aiming to contribute to the reliable op...

The world demand for energy has grown significantly over the years and, therefore, imposes new challenges regarding the consumption and generation of electricity. In addition, the agreement negotiated by 195 countries in Paris during COP21 reinforces sustainable development from the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to contain global warming as...

Após mais de um ano de pandemia da COVID-19, foi possível notar os diferentes rumos que a epidemia tomou ao longo do território brasileiro. Em virtude de inúmeros fatores, muitos até então desconhecidos, o comportamento da curva de casos da doença em cada estado se deu de uma forma distinta. Entretanto, apesar desta aparente singularidade, é import...

Objectives – The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted inequalities in access to healthcare systems, increasing racial/ethnic disparities and worsening health outcomes in these populations. This study analysed the association between sociodemographic characteristics and COVID-19 in-hospital mortality in Brazil. Study design...

Diante da pandemia de COVID-19, muitos países adotaram medidas de contenção buscando desacelerar sua propagação. Entretanto, tendo em vista a diversidade de medidas aplicadas e as diferentes curvas de propagação da doença dos vários países, a análise da efetividade das medidas é extremamente complexa, embora relevante para subsidiar decisões de ges...

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the reporting rates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases for Brazil as a whole and states. METHODS: We estimated the actual number of COVID-19 cases using the reported number of deaths in Brazil and each state, and the expected case-fatality ratio from the World Health Organization. Brazil’s expected case-fatality rat...

In this paper, we forecast residential electricity consumption in Brazil considering the variability in consumption behavior in different regions. In order to do so, we use a bottom-up approach to estimate long-term electricity consumption that considers three technology-driven scenarios: one assuming reference efficiency development, another one b...

Once energy is a social good, this study proposes a methodology to select the most appropriate wind turbine power curve models for Brazilian wind farms. To do so, we compare our proposal with the observed values in a monthly and annual base.

In order to ensure competitiveness in the market, electricity distribution companies must accurately estimate future electricity generation. To do so, this work uses time series models that correlate future inflow and past generation in space and time. The methodology proposed shows reduced errors and satisfactory predictability.

This study aimed to evaluate the application of preferred attribute elicitation (PAE) methodology for assessing the perceptions of consumers from different regions of Brazil (Northeast, Southeast or South, n = 20) about Coalho cheese samples. Northeast Brazilian consumers elicited a higher number of attributes (22 vs. 13–15) and had a higher freque...

The fast growing of wind generation in Brazil has brought benefits to the country's energy supply, especially under critical hydrological conditions, as observed between 2014 and 2017. However, deviations in wind generation predictions may lead to the depletion of reservoirs and expensive thermal generation. In order to improve the accuracy of wind...

In the past two decades, wind power’s share of the energy mix has grown significantly in Brazil. However, nowadays planning electricity operation in Brazil basically involves evaluating the future conditions of energy supply from hydro and thermal sources over the planning horizon. In this context, wind power sources are not stochastically treated....

The use of renewable energy resources, especially wind power, is receiving strong attention from governments and private institutions, since it is considered one of the best and most competitive alternative energy sources in the current energy transition that many countries around the world are adopting. Wind power also plays an important role by r...

Numbers of studies have proved the significant influence of climate variables on hydrological series. Considering the pivotal role of the hydroelectric power plants play in the electricity production in Brazil this paper considers the natural hydrological inflow data from 15 major basins and 8 climate variables containing 7 El Niño Southern Oscilla...

Time series analysis with explanatory variables encompasses methods to model and predict correlated data taking into account additional information, known as exogenous variables. A thorough search in literature returned a dearth of systematic literature reviews (SLR) on time series models with explanatory variables. The main objective is to fill th...

The food industry has been exploring the fermented milk due to its technological and functional potential, creating different formulations and fulfilling the recent market demands. In this context, evaluate the consumers' behavior and perception through qualitative approaches helps to identify the factors that may impact the consumption and purchas...

The Brazilian electricity energy matrix is essentially formed by hydraulic sources which currently account for 70% of the installed capacity. One of the most important characteristics of a generation system with hydro predominance is the strong dependence on the inflow regimes. Nowadays, the Brazilian power sector uses the PAR(p) model to generate...

A new approach that jointly uses Singular Spectrum Analysis, Bootstrap and the automatic procedures ets and auto.arima, called SSA.Boot, were successfully presented in previous works. Then, this works applies the SSA.Boot procedure to a new set of series to validate the method. The results founded, consistent with the approach presentation paper, s...

Brazil has one of the largest electricity market in South America. As in many other countries, Brazilian electricity sector groups consumers in five classes, as follows: Residential, Industrial, Commercial, Public Sector and Rural. The end-user electricity tariffs are calculated taking into account generation, transmission and distribution costs, i...

After the 2001 energy crises in Brazil, the energy sector priority has been the planning and consequently the forecast middle and long term energy consumption. The Energy Research Company (EPE for short) is in charge of publishing two official reports: "The Ten Year Energy Planning" and "The National Energy Planning" which contain, among other thin...

The importance of the residential class in the consumption of electricity in the Brazilian Electric System (BES) can be recognized by its quantitative size, as it, in 2013, concentrates 27% of the total consumption and 85% among all consumers. Also, in this class are the main public policies such as subsidies for consumer units inhabited by low-inc...

The NIE time series have great importance for the Brazilian energy long term planning, as the decisions about the optimal dispatch of hydroelectric and thermoelectric plants are highly dependent on them. Therefore, reliable and accurate long term forecasts and simulations for the NIE series are crucial. To develop such forecasts, the proposed appro...