Paul C Winters

Paul C Winters
University of Notre Dame | ND · Keough School of Global Affairs

PhD

About

154
Publications
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Publications

Publications (154)
Article
Even prior to COVID, there was a considerable push for food system transformation to achieve better nutrition and health as well as environmental and climate change outcomes. Recent years have seen a large number of high visibility and influential publications on food system transformation. Literature is emerging questioning the utility and scope o...
Article
This analysis investigates the potential mechanisms and the practical significance of agricultural value chain development in a geographically challenging rural area of a developing country. Using data from a carefully designed primary survey administered in a hill and mountainous region in Western Nepal, we show that linking small-scale producers...
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Agricultural support and cash transfer programmes are both used to improve nutrition outcomes in developing countries. Our review of both programmes based on a literature search of over 22 000 articles in 8 databases has four key findings. First, these programmes often increase total food consumption, but half of agricultural programmes do not meas...
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Food systems must serve different societal, public health and individual nutrition, and environmental objectives and therefore face numerous challenges. Considering the integrated performances of food systems, this paper highlights five fundamental paradigm shifts that are required to overcome trade-offs and build synergies between health and nutri...
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We investigate how user-managed small-scale irrigation can influence inclusive rural transformation. Cultivating inclusive rural transformation is key to sustainable growth and poverty reduction in developing countries, but existing research rarely analyses the holistic impacts of rural development projects on this process. We use a combination of...
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The increasing numbers of rural youth in developing countries and their perceived disenchantment with the society and economy have raised policy concerns across the developed and developing world. Youth (ages 15 to 24) make up one in five people in developing countries, and one in eight in the developed world. Of the 1.2 billion youth in the world,...
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Social protection programmes can play a crucial role in enhancing household resilience. Although there is vast evidence on the impact of cash transfer projects on many welfare outcomes, no study examines the impact of cash transfers on a composite measure of resilience. This paper fills this important gap by employing a difference-indifference esti...
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This paper revisits the decades-old relative deprivation theory of migration. In contrast to the traditional view which portrays absolute income maximization as a driver of migration, we test whether relative deprivation induces migration in the context of sub-Saharan Africa. Taking advantage of the internationally comparable longitudinal data from...
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Silvio Daidone is a economist and Benjamin Davis is a Strategic Program Leader, both with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy. Sudhanshu Handa is a professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul Winters is the Associate Vice-President of the Strategy and Knowledge Department, International Fu...
Chapter
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This chapter combines existing data and methods in a new analysis to demonstrate that expected demographic trends in rural and urban areas until 2050 translate into expected increases in rural-urban migration rates in low- and lower-middle-income countries (primarily in Africa). Using age-differentiated data, it also documents that this trend is ev...
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We replicate the analysis of Sebastian Galiani and Ernesto Shargrodsky’s (GS) influential 2010 article ‘Property rights for the poor: effects of land titling’. GS use a natural experiment in a poor urban area of Buenos Aires to find that land titling increases housing investment, reduces household size, and increases child education, but does not d...
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This paper investigates the multiple effects of increased land tenure security on rural people through a systematic review of the available evidence. The research involves collecting and synthesising the robust quantitative and qualitative research around this topic and is guided by a theory of change that reflects expected effects from the main la...
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Although liquidity constraints have been seen as both a factor limiting individuals from migrating and a motivation for households to send a migrant, the consequences of relaxing liquidity constraints on migration behavior have not been adequately explored due to data limitations. In this study, we take advantage of an unusual policy, Bantuan Langs...
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Assessing impact requires attribution, which refers to the ability to claim that impact on an indicator of success is the result of a particular investment. Identifying impact entails creating a counterfactual that allows comparison of what has happened as the results of an intervention and what would have happened in the absence of that interventi...
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Farmers in low-income rural economies often fail to switch to cash crops from staple production despite the positive income effects of commercialization expected by policy makers. The literature suggests that market failures prevent households from cash crop adoption but remains inconclusive regarding farmers' motives and the effects of commerciali...
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This paper examines whether computer-assisted instruction has a positive impact on the literacy and numeracy skills of early grade students. An educational intervention implemented in Zambia integrated technology into classroom activity in order to mitigate weaknesses in teaching skills and address specific unmet student needs. Using a difference-i...
Article
The complexity of the operational concept and definition of food insecurity has complicated the study of the ‘food insecure’ and efforts to determine clear policy directions. Previous findings on the prevalence and severity of food insecurity are inconsistent and often depend on the measure used. To overcome limitations in food security measurement...
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This paper explores the role that agriculture can play in the food security agenda. To meet this objective, this study measures the impact of the “Programa de Apoyos Directos para la Creación de Iniciativas Agroalimentarias Rurales” (CRIAR), an agricultural technology adoption program implemented in highly food insecure areas of rural Bolivia. The...
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Public policy programs must often impose limits on who may be eligible for benefits. Despite research on the impact of exclusion in developed countries, there is little evidence on how people react to being excluded from benefits in developing societies. Utilizing repeated waves of data from an experimental evaluation of Mexico's foundational PROGR...
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Global, national and local policies and programmes for agricultural development are recurrently justified based on their alleged role in improving food and nutrition security. However, strikingly little evidence is available to prove that a direct, household-level link between agricultural production and improved nutrition exists. The objective of...
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Understanding land accumulation dynamics is relevant for policy-makers interested in the economic effects of land inequality in developing country agriculture. We thus explore and simultaneously test the leading theories of micro-level land accumulation dynamics using unique panel data from Paraguay. The results suggest that farm growth varies syst...
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This special issue contributes to the literature on gender differences in sub-Saharan African agriculture primarily by using new and innovative micro-data. The first six articles have a strong focus on understanding the extent and drivers of gender differences in land productivity and use data from nationally representative household surveys that a...
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Voluntary certification programs are one type of intervention used to incentivize the agricultural commodity sector in tropical landscapes to reduce deforestation and improve sustainability. Cases of the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) voluntary certification program in Indonesia and the Sustainable Agriculture Network (SAN), voluntary ce...
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This article uses data from the General Household Survey Panel 2010–2011 to analyze differences in agricultural productivity across male and female plot managers in Nigeria. The analysis utilizes the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method, which allows for decomposing the unconditional gender gap into: (i) the portion caused by observable differences...
Article
Alleviating gender differences in agricultural productivity is vital for poverty reduction. While numerous studies suggest that gender differences in agricultural productivity are a result of female farmers having limited access to resources, few studies investigate the role of agricultural interventions in alleviating the constraints to input use...
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This paper presents the impact evaluation of CRIAR program, implemented in rural areas in Bolivia. The objective of CRIAR is to increase smallholders' agricultural income and food security through productivity improvements triggered by technological adoption. In this study, we use data from a sample of 1,287 households-817 beneficiaries and 470 con...
Article
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This paper presents the results of an impact evaluation for the CRIAR program, implemented in rural areas in Bolivia. The objective of this program is to increase the agricultural income and food security of smallholder farmers through productivity gains that result from technological adoption. We use data obtained from a sample of 1,287 households...
Article
Commodity agricultural production in tropical forest regions is expanding rapidly and is frequently linked to deforestation, increased emissions of greenhouse gases, biodiversity loss, poor working conditions and wages, and land tenure conflicts. Voluntary certification programs are one type of intervention used to incentivize the agricultural comm...
Data
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Development goals and poverty-reduction policies are often focused on raising agricultural productivity and dependent on farm household level data. Historically, household surveys commonly employed self-reported land area measurements for cost-effectiveness and convenience. However, as we illustrate here, these self-reported estimates may measure l...
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This paper contributes to the long-standing debate on the merits of decentralized beneficiary targeting in the administration of development programs, focusing on the large-scale Malawi Farm Input Subsidy Program. Nationally-representative household survey data are used to systematically analyze the decentralized targeting performance of the progra...
Article
Cash transfer programs are increasingly utilized to combat poverty and hunger while building the human capital of future generations; however, they have been faulted by some for failing to build the productive capacity of current generations. This article analyzes the impact of the Malawi Social Cash Transfer Scheme on agricultural production. The...
Article
Understanding the tourism‐poverty link is critical if tourism is to be used as a mechanism for reducing poverty. Yet, the available empirical analysis is insufficient for this. This article proposes a research agenda for closing this gap in the literature. It argues that, while analysing the link poses peculiar challenges, models exist to do so. Se...
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This paper used data from a four-year randomized experimental design impact evaluation to analyze the impact of the Kenya Cash Transfer Programme for Orphans and Vulnerable Children (CT-OVC) on individual and household decision making including labour supply, accumulation of productive assets and productive activities. The general framework for emp...
Article
In poverty reduction programs, a significant number of beneficiaries change program status. An analysis of Oportunidades’ data from urban Mexico shows that beneficiaries that drop out for behavioral and administrative reasons are those who are marginally eligible, improving targeting through minimizing errors of inclusion. Results also indicate tha...
Technical Report
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Cash transfer (CT) programmes have become an increasingly important tool for social protection in low and middle income countries. To date very little has been done to rigorously examine the economic impacts such programs may have on beneficiary households and individuals. The regular and predictable provision of cash may help households overcome v...
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The paper presents an analysis of the role of two forms of social capital – linking and bonding – on two key farm outcomes: on-farm crop diversity and household wellbeing. Where market transactions are limited, social capital is an important household asset for accessing seed and channelling information. The study is set in a drought-prone region o...
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This introductory paper summarizes the policy context, methodological approach, and key results from the set of papers contained in this special edition derived from a FAO-led project on seed sourcing in local markets and its farm-level impacts. The introduction provides the conceptual framework used in the papers for considering the relationship b...
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Using data from Bolivia, this paper analyzes seed market participation and how transaction costs in these markets influence intracrop biodiversity and the influence of biodiversity on yields. Results indicate that seed market attributes such as distance and market-level biodiversity have a crucial effect on a farmer's market choice, suggesting that...
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The Malawi Social Cash Transfer (SCT) scheme is part of a wave of social protection programmes providing cash to poor households in order to reduce poverty and hunger and promote child education and health. This paper looks beyond the protective function of such programmes, analysing their productive impacts. Taking advantage of an experimental imp...
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Determining reasonable indicators for climate change projects is complicated by the long-term horizon of both mitigation and adaptation project impacts as well as the uncertainty associated with climate change impacts. Actions taken now are often designed to have an impact in the uncertain and distant future and may not directly mitigate or adapt t...
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Evaluating the impact of poverty-reduction programs on fertility is complicated given that changes in incentives to have children take time to be incorporated into decision making and evaluation periods are usually quite brief. We explore the use of birth spacing as a short-run indicator of the impact of poverty-reduction programs on fertility. The...
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This article examines the challenges of linking smallholders to high-value food markets by looking at the experience of the Plataformas programme in the Ecuadorian Sierra. Multiple evaluation methods are employed to ensure identification of program impact. The findings suggest that the programme successfully improved the welfare of beneficiary farm...
Article
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The sluggish supply response in most developing countries to the apparently favourable agricultural market situation of the past few years can be explained by the limited ability of price incentives to bring about an increase in production and marketed surplus in the presence of binding non-price constraints. This article characterises farm househo...
Article
Abstract This article provides an introduction to the special feature on impact evaluation of agricultural projects in developing countries. The special feature is motivated by an increased interest in impact evaluation both within the economics profession and the development community. The article highlights methodological issues in conducting suc...
Article
Evaluating agricultural programmes requires considering not only the programmes’ influence on input and output indicators, but also considering the relationship between these indicators as embodied in the production technology. This article examines the impact on production of an intervention in the Ecuadorian Sierra designed to improve returns to...
Article
By focussing on human capital investment, the Mexican Oportunidades program will influence the economic choices of the rural poor. To understand how beneficiaries may alter their behaviour as a result of this intervention, this paper uses administrative data to analyse the economic activities of the rural poor. Results indicate that investments in...
Article
This article assesses whether early intervention to improve children's health and nutrition increases the probability of enrolling in primary school on time. Using experimental data from the Mexican conditional cash transfer (CCT) program, Oportunidades, a cross-sectional double-difference estimator on observations from two age cohorts of children...
Article
Migration has become a key component in the livelihood strategies of an increasing number of households across the developing world and remittances have expanded dramatically in the last decade. This has come at a time when an increased emphasis has been placed on reducing malnutrition to achieve Millennium Development Goal (MDG) targets. While thi...
Article
This paper examines the link between migration and food consumption patterns in Ghana, which has a history of widespread migration and high levels of poverty. Data from 4130 households from the nationally representative 2005/2006 Ghana Living Standards Survey are used for the analysis. Since migrants self-select into migration, an instrumental vari...
Article
This paper explores the relationship between migration and consumption patterns using panel data from the 2004 and 2006 Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys. Employing an instrumental variable approach to control for the endogeneity of migration, our results indicate that short-term migration has a positive effect on overall per capita food e...