Paul L Morgan

• Ph.D.
• Empire Innovation Professor Health Equity Endowed Professor at University at Albany, State University of New York

We investigated whether and to what extent U.S. kindergarten children's executive functions, oral vocabularies, and early literacy skills mediate relations between their sociodemographic background characteristics (i.e., family socioeconomic status, race or ethnicity, biological sex) and stable between-individual levels of mathematics and science a...

Background Both transactional and common etiological models have been proposed as explanations of why externalizing behavior problems (EBP) and internalizing behavior problems (IBP) co‐occur in children. Yet little research has empirically evaluated these competing theoretical explanations. We examined whether EBP and IBP are transactionally relate...

Background: Both transactional and common etiological models have been proposed as explanations of why externalizing behavior problems (EBP) and internalizing behavior problems (IBP) co-occur in children. Yet little research has empirically evaluated these competing theoretical explanations. We examined whether EBP and IBP are transactionally relat...

We examined whether some groups of U.S. elementary schoolchildren are less likely to be diagnosed and treated for ADHD in analyses of a population-based cohort (N = 10,920). We predicted ADHD diagnosis using measures of race and ethnicity, age, socioeconomic status, birthweight, individually assessed academic, behavioral, and executive functioning,...

In this registered report, we evaluated how sleep is related to school functioning. Using data from the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 3002), we evaluated a series of structural equation models evaluating whether sleep at age 5 has a direct or indirect effect on academic achievement, executive function and classroom behaviour at...

Special education services provided in U.S. schools should be designed to enable students with disabilities (SWD) to make “appropriately ambitious” educational progress (Endrew F., 2017). Yet the field lacks consensus on whether business-as-usual (BAU) special education services effectively support outcomes for SWD. We conducted a moderated multile...

The extent to which reading achievement is causally impacted by eligibility for special education services due to a learning disability (LD) or speech or language impairment (SLI) is currently unclear. In this registered report, we analyzed national data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study—Kindergarten Cohort of 2010–2011 (ECLS-K: 2011) usi...

We analyzed a population-representative cohort (N=13,611; Mage at kindergarten, first, and second grade = 67.5, 79.5, and 91.5 months, respectively) to identify kindergarten to second grade factors predictive of being bullies or victims during third to fifth grade. We did so by estimating a block recursive structural equation model (SEM) with three...

We used student fixed effects and statistical controls to investigate whether U.S. elementary students ( N = 18,170) displayed greater academic achievement, social-emotional behavior, or executive functioning and were more likely to receive gifted or special education services when taught by teachers of the same race or ethnicity. We observed mostl...

We analyzed a population-based cohort ( N = 10,922) to investigate the onset and stability of racial and ethnic disparities in advanced (i.e., above the 90 th percentile) science and mathematics achievement during elementary school as well as the antecedent, opportunity, and propensity factors that explained these disparities. About 13% to 16% of W...

We evaluated the best-available evidence for the effects of receiving business-as-usual or naturally delivered special education services in K-12 US schools. Our best-evidence synthesis of 44 empirical studies evaluated which outcome domains and disability types have been investigated and whether findings varied by the rigor of the study design and...

Cross-sectional analyses of four nationally representative samples indicate disparities in family-centered care occur among U.S. children and youth with special health care needs by race and ethnicity, family income and composition, insurance coverage, and health care setting. Measured confounds including children’s health and impairment severity d...

Cost analyses are used to determine overall costs of implementing evidence-based programming and may help decision makers determine how best to allocate finite resources. Child sexual abuse (CSA), regularly viewed as a human rights violation, is also a public health concern estimated to impact 27% of females and 5% of males by age 18. Universal, sc...

We used time-varying effect modelling of two very large samples of fourth-grade students ( N reading = 148,240, N mathematics = 152,220) to investigate associations between adoption and over-time implementation of a de facto cap on special education service receipt and over-time likelihoods of disability identification from 2003 to 2017 for Texas s...

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) overdiagnosis and overtreatment unnecessarily exposes children to potential harm and contributes to provider and community skepticism toward those with moderate or severe symptoms and significant impairments, resulting in less supportive care. Yet which sociodemographic groups of children are overdiag...

Students with disabilities (SWD) who are Black or Hispanic have been reported to be more likely to be placed primarily outside of general education classrooms while attending U.S. schools. Federal law and regulation require monitoring of special education placement based on race or ethnicity. Yet whether and to what extent racial or ethnic disparit...

We examined to what extent subgroups of students identified with learning disabilities (LDs; N = 630) in the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998 to 1999 (ECLS-K): 1998 national longitudinal study displayed heterogeneity in longitudinal profiles of reading and mathematics achievement from first to eighth grades. Multivaria...

We analyzed a population-based cohort of 11,780 US children to identify risk and protective factors by kindergarten predictive of being frequently verbally, social, reputationally, or physically victimized during the upper elementary grades. We also stratified the analyses by biological sex. Kindergarten children displaying externalizing problem be...

Prior work largely finds that students with disabilities (SWD) display more negative social, emotional, and academic attitudes than students without disabilities. Yet it is unclear to what extent this maladjustment is attributable to special education, including how recently and for how long students were assigned to receive special education servi...

Students who are Black or Hispanic are now reported to be less likely to be identified as having disabilities than similarly situated students who are White. Although repeatedly replicated, this finding is often characterized as in error. I use a new statistical technique, the E-value, to quantify the likelihood that unmeasured confounding explains...

A sample of 10,460 U.S. elementary schoolchildren was analyzed to identify early predictors of frequent use of online technologies (i.e., messaging, online gaming, and social networking). Children (Mage = 67.44 months) at greater risk displayed more externalizing problem behaviors in kindergarten (messaging OR = 1.11; online gaming OR = 1.21; socia...

Special education service receipt has been repeatedly hypothesized to negatively impact the social-emotional adjustment of students with disabilities (SWD). Yet empirical support for this hypothesis is limited and possibly spurious. We analyzed two longitudinal datasets to evaluate whether the dosage or recency of special education service receipt...

Prior non-experimental studies have been used to conclude that children’s reading and mathematics achievement bidirectionally influence each other over time, with strong paths from (a) early reading to later mathematics and (b) early mathematics to later reading. In the most influential study on the topic, the early-math-to-later-reading path was b...

To examine whether special education racial risk ratios reported by U.S. school districts are explained by district-level confounds, particularly, racial achievement gaps, we analyzed merged data ( N = 1,952 districts for Black–White comparisons; N = 2,571 districts for Hispanic–White comparisons) from the U.S. Department of Education’s Office of C...

Whether students of color are more or less likely to be identified as having disabilities than similarly situated students who are White in U.S. states with histories of de jure and de facto racial segregation is currently unknown. Unadjusted analyses of large samples of students attending elementary and middle schools in the U.S. South yielded lit...

We examined whether U.S. schools systemically discriminate when suspending or otherwise disciplining students with disabilities (SWD). Eighteen studies met inclusion criteria. We coded 147 available risk estimates from these 18 studies. Of four studies including individual-level controls for infraction reasons, over half of the available estimates...

Children whose mothers used or misused opioids during their pregnancies are at an increased risk of exhibiting cognitive or behavioral impairments in the future, which may result in identifiable disabilities that require special education services in school. The costs associated with these additional educational services, however, have remained unk...

We used data from the ECLS-K: 2010-11 to examine the extent to which Black-and Hispanic-White oral vocabulary gaps in the fall of kindergarten predicted Black-and Hispanic-White reading achievement gaps by the spring of 4th grade. Kindergarten oral vocabulary strongly predicted 4th grade reading achievement. Kindergarten oral vocabulary gaps accoun...

Students with Disabilities (SWD) more frequently experience academic failure, school dropout, and emotional/interpersonal difficulties such as greater peer rejection, delinquency, and victimization. Yet, few studies have examined the social-emotional functioning of SWD while also: 1) Controlling for whether the children were experiencing academic o...

Working memory (WM), one of the foundational subcomponents of executive functions (EF) for young schoolchildren, refers to the ability to briefly maintain and process information without external assistance. WM has been reported as an especially strong predictor of children’s achievement across multiple academic domains. Children with WM deficits m...

Students with disabilities (SWD) have been reported to be disproportionately suspended from U.S. schools and so more likely to experience the "school-to-prison pipeline" through suspension's associations with lower academic achievement, dropout, juvenile delinquency, and adult crim-inality. Yet few studies have estimated SWD's risk of more frequent...

George Farkas and Paul L. Morgan on improving special education provision through metric precision.

We investigated whether and to what extent deficits in executive functions (EF) increase kindergarten children's risk for repeated academic difficulties across elementary school. We did so by using growth mixture modeling to analyze the first- through third-grade achievement growth trajectories in mathematics, reading, and science of a large (N = 1...

Whether and to what extent kindergarten children's executive functions (EF) constitute promising targets of early intervention is currently unclear. This study examined whether kindergarten children's EF predicted their second‐grade academic achievement and behavior. This was done using (a) a longitudinal and nationally representative sample (N = 8...

We conducted a best-evidence synthesis of 22 studies to examine whether systemic bias explained minority disproportionate overrepresentation in special education. Of the total regression model estimates, only 7/168 (4.2%), 14/208 (6.7%), 2/37 (5.4%), and 6/91 (6.6%) indicated statistically significant overrepresentation for Hispanic, Asian, Native...

We examined trajectories of academic and social functioning in children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) to identify those who might be at risk for especially severe levels of academic and social impairment over time. We estimated a series of growth mixture models using data from two subsamples of children participating in the N...

Federal legislation and policy increasingly seek to address minority overrepresentation in special education due to concerns that U.S. schools are misidentifying children as disabled based on their race or ethnicity. Yet whether and to what extent this is occurring is currently in dispute. We estimated racial disparities in disability identificatio...

We examined the extent to which disparities in the receipt of special education services for speech or language impairments (SLIs) on the basis of race, ethnicity, or language use by kindergarten—when the delivery of these services might be expected to be most effective—have changed over a 12-year period in the United States. Logistic regression mo...

Retrospective studies suggest 1 in 4 girls and 1 in 6 boys will experience sexual abuse before 18 years of age, resulting in future morbidity. Successful interventions exist, however, victims are reluctant to disclose. Screening for childhood sexual abuse (CSA) may provide an opportunity to overcome this barrier, yet no current model for universal...

In this chapter we describe the observed patterns of disproportionality and consider how and why the over-representation of minority students in special education settings has become a contentious political issue. We also investigate the state of the evidence concerning the underlying causes and contributing factors involved in the observed pattern...

Purpose This study was designed to (a) identify sociodemographic, pregnancy and birth, family health, and parenting and child care risk factors for being a late talker at 24 months of age; (b) determine whether late talkers continue to have low vocabulary at 48 months; and (c) investigate whether being a late talker plays a unique role in children'...

Editor’s Note Since the landmark enactment of Education of the Handicapped Act in 1975, special education supports and services have been provided to children with disabilities. Although costly, the intentionality of these specialized services has been to advance the educational and societal opportunities of children with disabilities as they progr...

We synthesized empirical work to evaluate whether Black children are disproportionately overrepresented in special education. We identified 22 studies that met a priori inclusion criteria including use of at least 1 covariate in the reported analyses. Evidence of overrepresentation declined markedly as the studies included one or more of 3 “best-ev...

We reply to three critiques regarding our reporting that White, English-speaking children are much more likely than otherwise similar racial, ethnic, and language minority children to receive special education services in the United States. We show how each critique is unsound. We present further evidence of the robustness of our findings.

We recently reported that, among otherwise similar children attending U.S. elementary and middle schools, racial, ethnic, and language minorities are less likely than those who are White or English-speaking to be identified as having disabilities and so to receive special education services (Morgan et al., 2015). Another way to characterize our fin...

We summarize our recent findings that White children in the United States are more likely than otherwise similar racial or ethnic minority children to receive special education services, including for emotional and behavioral disorders. We show how the findings are robust. We explain why our findings conflict with prior reports in education that mi...

Children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are known to exhibit significantly lower academic and social functioning than other children. Yet the field currently lacks knowledge about specific impairment trajectories experienced by children with ADHD, which may constrain early screening and intervention effectiveness. Data were an...

We examined the age of onset, over-time dynamics, and mechanisms underlying science achievement gaps in U.S. elementary and middle schools. To do so, we estimated multilevel growth models that included as predictors children’s own general knowledge, reading and mathematics achievement, behavioral self-regulation, sociodemographics, other child- and...

Purpose We sought to identify factors predictive of or associated with receipt of speech/language services during early childhood. We did so by analyzing data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study–Birth Cohort (ECLS-B; Andreassen & Fletcher, 2005), a nationally representative data set maintained by the U.S. Department of Education. We address...

Data were analyzed from a population-based, longitudinal sample of 8,650 U.S. children to (a) identify factors associated with or predictive of oral vocabulary size at 24 months of age and (b) evaluate whether oral vocabulary size is uniquely predictive of academic and behavioral functioning at kindergarten entry. Children from higher socioeconomic...

We sought to identify which kindergarten children are simultaneously at risk of moderate or severe symptomatology in both attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and conduct disorder (CD) as adolescents. These risk factor estimates have not been previously available. We conducted multinomial logistic regression analyses of multiinformant ra...

We investigated whether minority children attending U.S. elementary and middle schools are disproportionately represented in special education. We did so using hazard modeling of multiyear longitudinal data and extensive covariate adjustment for potential child-, family-, and state-level confounds. Minority children were consistently less likely th...

We investigated whether children’s reading and mathematics growth trajectories from kindergarten to fifth grade inter-related, and to what extent disability and minority status interacted to predict their achievement trajectories. We conducted secondary data analysis based on a nationally representative sample of 6,446 U.S. schoolchildren from the...

We analyzed two nationally representative, longitudinal data sets of U.S. children to identify risk factors for persistent mathematics difficulties (PMD). Results indicated that children from low socioeconomic households are at elevated risk of PMD at 48 and 60 months of age, as are children with cognitive delays, identified developmental delays or...

We used population-based, longitudinal data to investigate the relation between mathematics instructional practices used by first-grade teachers in the United States and the mathematics achievement of their students. Factor analysis identified four types of instructional activities (i.e., teacher-directed, student-centered, manipulatives/calculator...

Whether and to what extent racial/ethnic disparities in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) diagnosis occur by kindergarten entry is currently unknown. We investigated risk factors associated with an ADHD diagnosis by kindergarten entry generally, and specifically whether racial/ethnic disparities in ADHD diagnosis occur by this very ea...

Background: Racial/ethnic disparities in ADHD diagnosis are known to occur in school-aged populations, but whether and to what extent these disparities occur as early as kindergarten is unknown. This study investigates racial/ethnic disparities in the diagnosis of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in a nationally-representative cohort...

We ; evaluated the relationship between victimization and academic achievement from a nonlinear perspective using a cusp catastrophe model. Participants were 62 students with identified learning disabilities (LD) using statewide criteria in Greece. Students participated in a 2-year cohort-sequential design. Reading assessments involved measures of...

We examined three questions. First, do reading difficulties increase children's risk of behavior difficulties? Second, do behavioral difficulties increase children's risk of reading difficulties? Third, do mathematics difficulties increase children's risk of reading or behavioral difficulties? We investigated these questions using a sample of 9,324...

We evaluated the relationship between victimization and academic achievement from a nonlinear perspective using a cusp catastrophe model. Participants were 62 students with identified learning disabilities (LD) using statewide criteria in Greece. Students participated in a 2-year cohort-sequential design. Reading assessments involved measures of wo...

Objective: Whether and to what extent racial/ethnic disparities inattention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) diagnosis occur across early and middle childhood is currently unknown. We examined the over-time dynamics of race/ethnic disparities in diagnosis from kindergarten to eighth grade and disparities in treatment in fifth and eighth grade...

We investigated whether and to what extent children who are racial-ethnic minorities are disproportionately represented in early intervention and/or early childhood special education (EI/ECSE). We did so by analyzing a large sample of 48-month-olds (N = 7,950) participating in the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study–Birth Cohort (ECLS-B), a national...

Background: Minority children are less likely to be diagnosed with ADHD, however current knowledge about ADHD patterns is limited because research has generally relied on single point in time analyses, cross-sectional designs, and small convenience samples that may not generalize to the U.S. school-aged population. Purpose: To examine the likelih...

The study objectives are to describe child care type and quality experienced by developmentally at-risk children, examine quality differences between Head Start and non-Head Start settings, and identify factors associated with receiving higher-quality child care. Data are analyzed from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Survey, Birth Cohort, a prospe...

The purpose of this study was to examine response dimensionality for a new measure of young children's early literacy skills. The Early Arithmetic, Reading, and Learning Indicators (EARLI) include six brief measures of early literacy skills. These measures were administered at three time points (October, January, and April) to children enrolled in...

The objective of this paper is to examine patterns of cognitive delay at 24 and 48 months and quantify the effects of perinatal and sociodemographic risk factors on persistent and variable cognitive delay. Using data from 7,200 children in the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Birth Cohort (ECLS-B), multiple logistic regression models identified...

The authors used a large sample of children (N ≈ 7,400) participating in the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study--Kindergarten Cohort (ECLS-K) to estimate kindergarten children's academic achievement growth trajectories in reading and mathematics. The authors were particularly interested in whether the growth trajectories of children with learning d...

The authors sought to (a) identify interventions that immediately increased the oral reading fluency of students with or at risk for disabilities, (b) estimate to what extent these gains maintained over time, and (c) evaluate whether particular characteristics of students (e.g., gender, disability status) predicted their response to fluency interve...

We investigated whether being poorly skilled in reading contributes to children's reported feelings of anger, distractibility, anxiety, sadness, loneliness, and social isolation. Data were analyzed from a longitudinal subsample of children (N = 3,308) participating in the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study–Kindergarten Cohort. Multilevel logistic r...

Quality child care is associated with favorable developmental outcomes including enhanced cognitive development, greater language proficiency, and improved social skills. Past research suggests that disadvantaged children receive poorer quality childcare, however at the population level it is not known how childcare currently received by poor and e...

Lower maternal education is thought to increase a preschooler's risk of developmental delays. However, prior studies have used small convenience samples of children and often lack controls for gestational, birth, and socio-demographic confounds. To better estimate maternal education as a risk factor, we used a large nationally representative cohort...

The authors use nationally representative data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-1999 (ECLS-K) to identify variables measured in the fall of 1998 (when the sample’s students were in kindergarten) that predict special education placement by the spring of 2004 (when most students were finishing fifth grade). Plac...

We sought to quantify the effectiveness of special education services as naturally delivered in U.S. schools. Specifically, we examined whether children receiving special education services displayed (a) greater reading or mathematics skills, (b) more frequent learning-related behaviors, or (c) less frequent externalizing or internalizing problem b...

The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability and validity of scores from six early literacy probes developed for use with preschool-age children. The literacy probes were administered to 84 preschoolers at three time points over a 6-month period. Also, a criterion measure of early literacy skills was administered to a subset of students...

Cognitively delayed children are at risk for poor mental and physical health throughout their lives. The economically disadvantaged and some race/ethnic groups are more likely to experience cognitive delay, but trajectories of delay in early childhood and underlying mechanisms responsible for disparities are not well understood. The objectives of t...

Currently, few measures are available to monitor young children’s progress in acquiring key early academic skills. In response to this need, the authors have begun developing measures (i.e., the Early Arithmetic, Reading and Learning Indicators, or EARLI) of preschoolers’ numeracy skills. To accurately and efficiently monitor acquisition of early s...

This study evaluated the extent to which a range of risk factors (e.g., gender, race/ethnicity, low socioeconomic status) predicted kindergarten children's likelihood of later displaying recurring psychopathology. It used multilevel logistic regression to analyze teacher ratings of frequent and recurring externalizing and internalizing problem beha...

Cognitively delayed children are at risk for poor mental and physical health throughout their lives. The economically disadvantaged and some race/ethnic groups are more likely to experience cognitive delay, but the age at which delays first emerge and the underlying mechanisms responsible for disparities are not well understood. The objective of th...

We used a large sample of singleton children to estimate the effects of socioeconomic status (SES), race/ethnicity, gender, additional socio-demographics, gestational and birth factors, and parenting on children's risk for learning-related behavior problems at 24 months of age. We investigated to what extent these factors increased a child's risk o...

The investigators used data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Cohort (ECLS-K) to estimate whether and to what extent the timing and persistence of mathematics difficulties (MD) in kindergarten predicted children's first through fifth grade math growth trajectories. Results indicated that children persistently displaying MD (i...

Which children are most at risk of experiencing a Matthew effect in reading? We investigated this question using population-based methodology. First, we identified children entering kindergarten on socio-demographic factors (i.e., gender, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status) known to index the relative risks and resources available to them as...

The authors used a pretest-posttest control group design with random assignment to evaluate whether early reading failure decreases children's motivation to practice reading. First, they investigated whether 60 first-grade children would report substantially different levels of interest in reading as a function of their relative success or failure...

Two questions were investigated. First, are children with reading problems in first grade more likely to experience behavior problems in third grade? Second, are children with behavior problems in first grade more likely to experience reading problems in third grade? The authors explored both questions by using multilevel logistic regression modeli...

Young children entering school with poor oral vocabulary skills may be doubly disadvantaged. Their poor oral vocabulary skills will likely impede their attempts to become proficient readers while also possibly increasing the frequency of their problem behaviors. Dialogic reading (DR) is a scientifically validated shared storybook reading interventi...

Many students with emotional or behavioral disorders (EBD) display both learning and behavioral problems that make it difficult for teachers to provide effective instruction. In turn, a lack of exposure to effective instruction contributes to poor academic and behavioral outcomes. In this article, the authors argue that the interaction between the...

Many students with emotional or behavioral disorders (EBD) display both learning and behavioral problems that make it difficult for teachers to provide effective instruction. In turn, a lack of exposure to effective instruction contributes to poor academic and behavioral outcomes. In this article, the authors argue that the interaction between the...

Young children who enjoy reading do it more often and they tend to become skilled at it. Poor readers, by contrast, often display low motivation to read. One possible explanation of this is that reading skill and reading motivation influence each other. 15 studies were reviewed addressing the relationship between young children's reading and compet...

This study had two purposes. First, we sought to compare the overall effectiveness of different types of fluency interventions for students with learning disabilities (LD). Second, we attempted to identify how individual- and class-level characteristics moderated each intervention's effectiveness. We used multilevel random coefficient modeling to a...

Frequent reprimands, low expectations, and infrequent praise characterize the daily school experiences of many students who display problem behaviors. This review evaluates preference and choice-making as possible interventions for improving these school experiences. Findings from 15 studies suggest that preference and choice-making may improve bot...

We examined how strongly motivation, metacognition, and psychopathology acted as predictors of learning disabilities (LD). The results from five studies suggested that level of motivation (as shown through self-efficacy, motivational force, task avoidance, goal commitment, or self-concept) was highly accurate in classifying students with or at risk...