Paul N. Leiby

Oak Ridge National Laboratory | ORNL · Environmental Sciences Division

Since 2020, ocean-going vessels must comply with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandate to reduce the sulfur content of marine fuels (outside emission control areas) to no more than 0.5%. This paper analyzes the cost of different approaches for the U.S. fleet, which has special cost considerations because of the Jones Act, to comply...

This paper investigates the sensitivity of U.S. economic performance to oil price changes, accounting for changes in the domestic petroleum supply-demand balance over the last decade. A non-linear (asymmetric) autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is used to estimate the U.S. GDP elasticity with respect to the oil price, controlling for oil...

This report aims to provide information for owners and operators of U.S. ocean-going marine cargo vessels on the cost of different approaches to compliance with the IMO mandate to reduce the sulfur content of marine fuels (outside emission control areas) to no more than 0.5%. The IMO 2020 rule came into effect on January 1, 2020. The report discuss...

This analysis estimates the cost of selected oil and biomass supply shocks for producers and consumers in the light-duty vehicle fuel market under various supply chain configurations using a mathematical programing model, BioTrans. The supply chain configurations differ by whether they include selected flexibility levers: multi-feedstock biorefiner...

The probability of the size and duration of another oil disruption is critical to estimating the value of any policies for reducing the economic damages from a sudden oil supply disruption. The Energy Modeling Forum at Stanford University developed a risk assessment framework and evaluated the likelihood of one or more foreign oil disruptions over...

Oil demand elasticities are important behavioral parameters for assessing the effectiveness of many energy policy proposals and the economic impact of oil market shocks. Most of the literature on petroleum demand computes elasticities for one particular petroleum product in a country or group of countries. There are fewer published values for world...

We explore the role of biofuels in mitigating the negative impacts of oil supply shocks on fuel markets under a range of oil price trajectories and biofuel blending mandate levels. Using a partial equilibrium model of US biofuels production and petroleum fuels trade, we discuss the adjustments in light‐duty vehicle fuel mix, fuel prices, and renewa...

Experts predict that new automobiles will be capable of driving themselves under limited conditions within 5-10 years, and under most conditions within 10-20 years. Automation may affect road vehicle energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in a host of ways, positive and negative, by causing changes in travel demand, vehicle design, v...

The economic implications of various designs for a U. S. national low carbon fuel standard (NLCFS) for the road transportation sector are examined. An NLCFS based on the average carbon intensity (CI) of all fuels sold in the gasoline and diesel markets generates an incentive for fuel suppliers to reduce the measured CI of their petroleum fuels. Rec...

This paper discusses the potential energy security implications of a national low carbon fuel standard (NLCFS). A low carbon fuel standard is designed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by targeting the fuel portion of the fuel-vehicle system. Specifically, a NLCFS would set national targets for the average carbon intensity (CI) of motor fuel...

This research examines the economic implications of different designs for a national low carbon fuel standard (NLCFS) for the road transportation sector. A NLCFS based on the average Carbon Intensity (CI) of all fuels sold generates an incentive for fuel suppliers to reduce the measured CI of their fuels. The economic impacts are determined by the...

Indicators are needed to assess both socioeconomic and environmental sustainability of bioenergy systems. Effective indicators can help to identify and quantify the sustainability attributes of bioenergy options. We identify 16 socioeconomic indicators that fall into the categories of social well-being, energy security, trade, profitability, resour...

This study evaluates the global economic effects of the USA renewable fuel standards (RFS2), and the potential contribution from advanced biofuels. Our simulation results imply that these mandates lead to an increase of 0.21 percent in the global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022, including an increase of 0.8 percent in the USA and 0.02 percent...

Petroleum fuels make up essentially all of the transportation fuels used today. But fossil fuel use has many economic and environmental downsides, including a weakening of our energy security due to reliance on imported energy sources, air pollution that impacts health, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that contribute to climate change. To reduce...

The abundance and low cost of petroleum over the past 150 years has enabled rapid economic growth and extraordinary mobility advancements. But dependence on petroleum fuels also has large downsides, including dependence on insecure supplies, volatile prices causing high economic costs, polluted and unhealthy air, climate change, and increasing thre...

Prospects for the cellulosic biofuel industry are unclear. The EPA has repeatedly lowered production requirements under the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS-2) to reflect the limited investment in cellulosic biorefineries. The elimination of the VEETC tax credit and of the import tax for Brazilian ethanol at the end of 2011 leave the domestic biofuel...

Corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) regulations specify minimum standards for fuel efficiency that vehicle manufacturers must meet independently. We design a system of tradeable fuel economy credits that allows trading across vehicle classes and manufacturers with and without considering market power in the credit market. We perform numerical sim...

Recent claims attibuting rising fuel costs and deforestation to biofuels are examined. Given a priority to protect biodiversity and ecosystem services, it is important to further explore the drivers for conversion of land at the frontier and to consider the effects, positive and negative, that U.S. biofuel policies could have in these areas. This m...

Achieving a successful transition to hydrogen-powered vehicles in the U.S. automotive market will require strong and sustained commitment by hydrogen producers, vehicle manufacturers, transporters and retailers, consumers, and governments. The interaction of these agents in the marketplace will determine the real costs and benefits of early market...

Oil independence has been a goal of U.S. energy policy for the past 30 years yet has never been rigorously defined. A rigorous, measurable definition is proposed: to reduce the costs of oil dependence to less than 1% of GDP in the next 20 to 25 years, with 95% probability. A simulation model incorporating the possibility of future oil supply disrup...

Between 1999 and 2003, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) made a preliminary effort to integrate an analysis of mitigation and adaptation to climate change impact vulnerabilities in two ways: top-down and bottom-up. This paper briefly describes these early experiments and summarizes their findings, both about climate change vulnerability redu...

This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 200...

“However, the essence of models is deliberate simplification. Reality thus is more complex than the model. ” Gordon, p. 679 This paper examines how consumers and firms make decisions that have important implications about transportation energy use in the face of uncertainty, and how they form expectations that influence those decisions. These issue...

The U.S. Federal government is carefully considering the merits and long-term prospects of hydrogen-fueled vehicles. NAS (1) has called for the careful application of systems analysis tools to structure the complex assessment required. Others, raising cautionary notes, question whether a consistent and plausible transition to hydrogen light-duty ve...

The U.S. government is carefully considering the merits and the long-term prospects of hydrogen-fueled vehicles. The National Academy of Sciences has called for the careful application of systems analysis tools to structure the complex assessment required. Others, raising cautionary notes, question whether a consistent and plausible transition to h...

This chapter discusses the lessons learned by the US from the analysis and experience of alternative fueled vehicles (AFV) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV). Despite the range of federal, state, and local initiatives to promote alternative fuel use since the 1980s, there has been little progress in developing alternative fuel infrastructure, advan...

This paper reports on developments in theoretical and empirical understanding of the macroeconomic consequences of oil price shocks since 1996, when the U.S. Department of Energy sponsored a workshop summarizing the state of understanding of the subject. Four major insights stand out. First, theoretical and empirical analyses point to intra- and in...

A National Research Council (NRC) committee recently conducted a retrospective study of the benefits of some of the energy efficiency and fossil energy programs in the US Department of Energy (US DOE). A subsequent conference discussed ways of adapting and refining the NRC framework for possible use by US DOE offices to help plan and manage their R...

How do we as cities, nations, and global communities best respond to global climate change? Mitigation - curtailing greenhouse gas emissions dominated initial discussions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and international conferences on global climate change. Now that climate change has become a clear and present danger, however, ad...

New vehicle technologies and alternative fuels are believed to be key factors in increasing energy security, improving air quality, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Proposed legislation (Energy Policy Act of 2003) would extend significant tax credits to fuel-cell vehicles and promote hybrid vehicle use through credits toward other federal req...

Recent world events have heightened concern about energy security and the possible risks of oil market disruptions. This paper examines the shared benefits of emergency oil stockpiling to the U.S., Asia and the IEA-Europe regions, in order to better understand the circumstances in which additional countries will find it in their interest to develop...

This paper integrates two themes in the intertemporal permitliterature through the construction of an intertemporal bankingsystem for a pollutant that creates both stock and flow damages. A permit banking system for the special case of a pollutant thatonly causes stock damages is also developed. This latter,simpler case corresponds roughly to the g...

Abstract Alternative motor fuels have been advocated in the name of energy security, regional air quality, greenhouse gas emission reduction, and even economic savings. The Energy Policy Act of 1992 sets a goal of replacing 30 percent of conventional fuel use with alternative fuels by the year 2010. Earlier analysis using a single-period equilibriu...

In the United States, alternative fuel vehicles are treated favorably in the calculations that are used to determine compliance with automotive fuel efficiency standards. We estimate that this favorable treatment is worth approximately $550–$1100 per alternative fuel vehicle in terms of avoided penalties. We use a dynamic simulation model to examin...

Oak Ridge National Laboratory is assisting the US Army Corps of Engineers in improving its economic analysis procedures for evaluation of inland waterway investment projects along the Ohio River System. This paper describes the context and design of an integrated approach to calculating the system-wide benefits from alternative combinations of lock...

Abstract There is tremendous international interest in controlling emissions of greenhouse gases. One of the most prominent proposals, called ‘joint implementation’, relies on the international trading, of global warming,permits or credits. The U.S. government,has suggested that this trading regime also allow nations the additional flexibility prov...

Oil dependence is defined as a dynamic problem of short- and long-run market power. The potential monopoly power of an oil cartel depends on its market share and the elasticities of oil supply and demand, while the economic vulnerability of oil-consuming states depends most directly on the quantity of oil imported and the oil cost share of gross do...

Many of the strategies proposed for using forest managememt to mitigate the increasing concentration of atmospheric CO2 are characterized by C emissions reductions which are not uniform over time. A simple model of the carbon budgets of different forest management schemes illustrates the possibilities and poses the question whether the timing of em...

The Transitional Alternative Fuels Vehicle model simulates the use and cost of alternative fuels and alternative fuel vehicles over the period 1996 to 2010. It is designed to examine the transitional period of alternative fuel and vehicle use. It accounts for dynamic linkages between investments and vehicle and fuel production capacity, tracks vehi...

Abstract The use of motor fuels by light-duty vehicles is a major contributor to oil demand,and greenhouse gas emissions. The rate of introduction of alternative fuel vehicles will be an important influence on the time path of fuel use and emissions, and the sustainability of transportation patterns. The Transitional Alternative Fuels Vehicle (TAFV...

Econometric and linear programming models were used to evaluate petroleum markets during a politically based disruption and, alternatively, during a military confrontation in 1995. The market scenarios were characterized by a substantial loss of exports from the Persian Gulf region. The hypothetical disruptions resulted in substantially higher pric...

Econometric and linear programming models have been used to study the production of Navy mobility fuels during a political disruption scenario in the year 1995. Among other conditions of the disruption, exports of petroleum from the Persian Gulf, Algeria, and Libya are reduced by 50% and strategic petroleum reserves are used at maximum rates. The d...

There is a consensus that the oil market will be soft during the second half of the 1980's, and that disruptions are unlikely. Hence, in the most likely case, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) will not be used, and oil purchased for the SPR may lose value. However, we should not revise SPR policies on this basis alone. The SPR was designed as i...

The choice of draw rate capability and SPR size is guided by b udgetary considerations, general facility performance goals, the need to coordinate with other International Energy Agency members, and engineering cost analyses of the SPR facilities. The analysis described here estimates the ranges of economic benefits to the U.S. that could be achiev...

This note summarizes the treatment of the supply of Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG or propane) in the Transitional Alternative Fuel Vehicle (TAFV) Model. While there is little dispute over current LPG retail price (1995 as defined here), two competing views of the price of LPG in the future exist. In recognition of this, we have created two different LP...

A major Middle East and European military confrontation would cause an extremely large disruption in the supply of oil worldwide. There would be imbalances between oil supply and demand. These imbalances can only be solved by rationing and by military actions to ensure an adequate flow of crude oil and products. 25 refs., 5 tabs.

An understanding of the oil market bears directly on DOE research conducted by ORNL on strategic petroleum reserve planning and global climate change. The workshop discussions highlighted the principal factors underlying the current consensus energy forecast: an expectation of increased energy conservation (particularly of oil) in the face of low o...

This paper describes SPR benefits and proposes a general paradigm for Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) decision-making. It presents two modeling approaches to the general decision problem, each simplifying the problem in a different way and offering a distinct perspective. The first is the Teisberg model approach, applying dynamic programming, and...

Energy technology R&D is a cornerstone of U.S. energy policy. Understanding the potential for energy technology R&D to solve the nation's energy problems is critical to formulating a successful R&D program. In light of this, the U.S. Congress requested the National Research Council (NRC) to undertake both retrospective and prospective assessments o...

To achieve its goal of producing vehicles that use two thirds less fuel than current vehicles, the Partnership of a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV) is designing vehicles that will use lightweight materials in place of heavier materials used in current vehicles. using new materials in automobiles will require the development of a supporting infras...

The lack of refueling stations is one of the biggest barriers to the transition to hydrogen-powered transportation. Stationary fuel cells, when deployed and operated to co-generate heat, hydrogen and power, could serve as distributed sources of hydrogen for motor vehicles. This study uses a hydrogen transition market simulation model to analyze the...