Paul K. Davis

• Ph.D.
• Senior Researcher at RAND Corporation

This paper discusses challenges for M&S if it is to be increasingly important to decision aiding and policy analysis. It suggests an approach that—from the outset of a policy analysis project—incorporates M&S of a varied resolution with the intent that (1) the results of analysis will be communicated with a relatively simple model and corresponding...

The Russia–Ukraine war has caused decision-makers worldwide to acknowledge the thinkability (plausibility) of limited nuclear war. It has probably reduced any confidence China may have about being able easily and quickly to invade Taiwan. It will stimulate the United States to spur allies in Northeast Asia to beef up their own military capabilities...

The different types of experimentation and reasons why to use simulation experiments in the various application domains are the topic of this chapter of the SCS M&S Body of Knowledge. It addresses the types of simulation techniques, introduces the simulation of discrete systems using DEVS in detail, and also comprises a section on continuous system...

Ethics is a branch of philosophy that studies moral problems. This chapter of the SCS M&S Body of Knowledge starts with a broader look at how ethics are influencing technical disciplines in general before looking at ethics for computer simulation in more detail. It devotes a section on ethics for simulationists and analysts, as they often provide g...

This chapter of the SCS M&S Body of Knowledge begins with a section on the types and sources of various errors, including an extensive list of relevant terms. The need for reliability leads to a section on validation as well as a section on verification. It is closed by a section on failure avoidance.KeywordsModeling and simulationsources of errors...

This chapter of the SCS M&S Body of Knowledge addresses two topics, namely, using causal modeling and simulation to enhance aspects of social science and using causal models to aid managers and other decisionmakers. To this end, it discussed simulation approaches supplementing traditional social science approaches, particularly agent-based generati...

This report is a compendium of expert insights regarding opportunities for investing in science and technology to increase U.S. ability to engage in long-term competition in undergoverned spaces. This exploration marks an initial step toward developing a functional perspective on determining whether new approaches to strategy and engagement are war...

This paper motivates and sketches a set of nuclear-use cases involving conflict on the Korean peninsula. The cases reflect a wide range of ways that nuclear weapons might be brandished or used in a Korean crisis. We identify possible cases by using two different lenses: a “logical” or taxonomic lens and a decisionmaking lens that asks how an actual...

In this paper, we discuss how artificial intelligence (AI) could be used in political-military modeling, simulation, and wargaming of conflicts with nations having weapons of mass destruction and other high-end capabilities involving space, cyberspace, and long-range precision weapons. AI should help participants in wargames, and agents in simulati...

This chapter develops from a presentation in a 2016 workshop on wargaming sponsored by the Deputy Secretary of Defense as part of an initiative to use wargaming to help foster innovation. The presentation was to a working group charged with addressing how wargaming can support the Department of Defense larger analytic process. The chapter describes...

This paper describes a possible agenda for changing the teaching and conduct of policy analysis to better reflect the centrality of complex adaptive systems and the potential role of new analytic methods, including computational social science (CSS). The agenda identifies desirable changes in four categories: (1) world view when conceiving and posi...

Lustick and Tetlock (2021) present a distinctive, persuasive case for theory‐guided simulation and its use in the intelligence community (IC). The usefulness of their insight can be expanded by recognizing the relationship between the forecasting project, the decision‐aiding project, and the knowledge project. We point out further issues for consid...

A great deal of creativity and innovation will be needed to surmount the considerable challenges. Even describing these challenges remains a subject for scholarly debate. The chapter provides a list of challenges that should be considered representative rather than comprehensive. The challenges are complexity of human issues, fragmentation, represe...

This chapter draws on lessons from other domains to suggest ways for social‐behavioral modeling to be useful in aiding high‐level decision‐making on both national security and social‐policy issues. Analysis to aid such decision‐making often requires addressing issues from a system perspective, providing both a broad, low‐resolution view and selecte...

This chapter reviews the current state of the art in data infrastructure and artificial intelligence approaches that could be valuable for social and behavioral modeling. Among the newer machine learning methods, adversarial training and fuzzy cognitive maps seem to have particular unrealized potential. The chapter then discusses the troublesome th...

This chapter summarizes our view of priority challenges for social‐behavioral modeling. Some challenges are inherent: individuals behave in complicated ways and social systems are complex adaptive systems (CAS). Such systems pose wicked problems for policy‐makers. Other challenges relate to specific scientific problems. We discuss a selection of th...

Contributors offered suggestions to improve multi‐scale modeling that focused mainly on getting model substance right. This chapter is an edited but not iterated recounting of responses to questions that deal with simulation and emergence, how to relate models at different levels of resolution, and how to assure more humanness in agents. Contributo...

This chapter discusses ethical and privacy issues that those conducting social‐behavioral research must be concerned about. It reviews issues under six main topics: assuring meaningful user notice, assuring usable and accurate access control, anonymizing data, validating and auditing data algorithms to avoid harms, challenging and addressing harms,...

Simple cognitive models of the adversary are useful in a variety of domains, including national security analysis. Having alternative models can temper the tendency to base strategy on the best-estimate understanding of the adversary, and can encourage building a strategy that is better hedged and more adaptive. Best estimates of adversary thinking...

The principles and formalities of modern U.S. Defence planning stem from the 1960s and have largely served well. This paper, however, is about the special challenges that arise when major changes have been needed, some even transformational in character. It discusses how changing realities, independent studies and analysis, events, leaders, and pol...

This paper summarizes priority challenges for social and behavioral modeling based on a recent study building on a base of prior studies. Our focus is less on describing and hand- wringing about the current state than on identifying what is necessary for moving on. Some of the obstacles reflect inherent challenges: social systems are complex adapti...

Representing causal social science knowledge in models is difficult: much of the best knowledge is qualitative and ambiguously conditional, unlike the knowledge in “physics models.” This paper describes a stream of RAND research that began with qualitative models providing a structured depiction of casual factors creating effects. That has subseque...

Most trends on the Korean Peninsula favor South Korea, but North Korea’s nuclear program is a great concern, as is the possibility that the North will become desperate at some point because of negative trends. Although unlikely, war—even limited nuclear war—is imaginable in the years ahead, perhaps with winners and losers. This poses challenges for...

Social science knowledge is best approached qualitatively, and efforts to force research into quantitative form (as with statistical analysis of, say, terrorist incidents versus alleged determinants) are often counterproductive because the data analysis of historical events is intellectually flawed, with problems of hidden variables, uncontrolled v...

Executive Summary Agility is the capability to successfully effect, cope with, and/or exploit changes in circumstances. While other factors will also influence outcomes, C2 Agility enables entities to effectively and efficiently employ the resources they have in a timely manner in a variety of missions and circumstances. SAS-085 was formed to impro...

Defense analysis can do a better job supporting policymakers dealing with multiple objectives and deep uncertainties. This will involve seeing through the fog with simple analysis and undergirding results with depth as necessary. It will emphasize balancing across objectives and hedging against both uncertainty and disagreement among policymakers....

Background Greater use of computerized decision support (DS) systems could address continuing safety and quality problems in healthcare, but the healthcare field has struggled to implement DS technology. This study surveys DS experience across multiple non-healthcare disciplines for new insights that are generalizable to healthcare provider decisio...

Building on earlier RAND research that reviewed and integrated social science relevant to understanding terrorism and counterterrorism, this volume focuses on public support for both insurgency and terrorism and incorporates insights stimulated by social movement theory. The authors examine four case studies: al-Qa'ida's transnational jihadist move...

Factor trees are relatively simple causal diagrams that indicate the many factors contributing to a phenomenon or effect at a snapshot in time. They consist of nodes and directional arcs (arrows) arranged in nearly hierarchical layers so that the effect can be seen as depending on a few high-level factors, but with those depending in turn on more d...

The chapter discusses vulnerabilities of al-qa’ida related to ideology, framing, strategic objectives and decision making, and resource mobilization efforts, all of which can be exploited.

The international developments of the recent years resulted in a radical change of tasks the armed forces are conducting. Supporting M&S methods and tools can no longer focus on attrition, movement, and warfighting operations, but need to address reconstruction, crisis prevention, police tasks, and related efforts that are conducted in collaboratio...

PREFACE: MORS working group is addressing systems approaches to critical infrastructure protection. But - What's a system? What's "systems thinking?" And what's special about systems thinking in people-centric problems? Analytic paradigms and methods for drawing on the social-science literature? TOPICS: System View in Study of "Deterrence" after 9/...

Counterterrorism efforts in the United States focus largely on a combination of offensive actions against terrorists abroad and defense of the U.S. homeland and U.S. and allied interests worldwide. This paper provides a framework for conceiving another necessary component of the struggle, the influence component. Classic deterrence is but one influ...

Strategic planning is necessary if the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is to carry out its border-security missions effectively and efficiently. As part of that, DHS leadership must define concrete and sensible objectives and measures of success. These can be used to assess results along the way, to guide allocation of resources, and to...

This paper describes ways to specify important static content of social-science models for counterterrorism without dependence on a particular computer language or environment. The ambitions are modest because the actual knowledge to be represented is limited. The premium should be on simple, clear descriptions that can be communicated, debated, an...

The aim of this panel session is to promote discussion on emergent challenges and the need for advancements in the theory, methodology, applications, education in M&S. The changing landscape in science and engineering (e.g., industrial and defense application, medicine, predictive homeland security, energy and environment) introduces new types of p...

Strategic planning often seeks to balance investments across numerous objectives. Defense planners, for example, have objectives relating to force capabilities for future traditional and irregular warfare and for operations other than war. The objectives apply separately for different geographical regions and time periods. Acquisition planners have...

The authors report on an aggressively interdisciplinary project to survey and integrate the scholarly social-science literature relevant to counterterrorism. They draw on literature from numerous disciplines, both qualitative and quantitative, and then use high-level conceptual models to pull the pieces together. In their monograph, they identify p...

The aim of this panel session is to promote discussion on emergent challenges and the need for advancements in the theory, methodology, applications, education in M&S. The changing landscape in science and engineering (e.g., industrial and defense application, medicine, predictive homeland security, energy and environment) introduces new types of p...

Secretaries of Defense have always been acutely aware of the need to assess, balance and manage risks. They have used a variety of methods to do so, depending on the strategic environment, technology and other factors, often in the larger context of achieving objectives and living within a budget. Some of the methods have become quite well known an...

MRM (MRM) and Composability are two of the most challenging topics in M&S. They are also related. In this paper, which was written to set the stage for conference discussion of related papers, we discuss how addressing the MRM challenge is sometimes a necessary - although not sufficient - step towards solving the composability challenge. This paper...

The aim of this panel session is to promote discussion on emergent challenges and the need for advancements in the theory, methodology, applications, education in M&S. The changing landscape in science and engineering (e.g., industrial and defense application, medicine, predictive homeland security, energy and environment) introduces new types of p...

In this paper I describe certain core problems of defense planning (Section 2), which have much in common with more general planning problems that arise in dealing with complex adaptive systems (CAS) characterized by unpredictability. I then describe concepts and methods that my colleagues and I have brought to bear with not-inconsiderable success....

Looking at the battlespace as a system of systems is a cornerstone of Effects-Based Operations and a key element in the planning of such operations, and in developing the Commander's Predictive Environment. Instead of a physical battleground to be approached with weapons of force, the battlespace is an interrelated super-system of political, milita...

High-level decision makers face complex strategic issues and decision support for such individuals needs to be topdown, and to use representations natural to their level and particular styles. Decision support should focus on objectives; uncertainties, which are often both large and deep; risks; and how to do well despite the uncertainties and risk...

This paper describes a prototype model for exploring counterterrorism issues related to the recruiting effectiveness of organizations such as al Qaeda. The prototype demonstrates how a model can be built using qualitative input variables appropriate to representation of social-science knowledge, and how a multiresolution design can allow a user to...

This paper lays out provocative assertions about major challenges for the modeling and simulation community. One relates to building M&S for the purpose of assisting the search for strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust despite uncertainty. A key aspect of this search is exploratory analysis, coupled with selective zoom. These, in turn,...

This paper lays out provocative assertions about major challenges for the modeling and simulation community. One relates to building M&S for the purpose of assisting the search for strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and ro- bust despite uncertainty. A key aspect of this search is ex- ploratory analysis, coupled with selective zoom. These, in t...

As we increase our reliance on mediated communication, it is important to be aware the media's influence on group processes and outcomes. A review of 40+ years of research shows that all media-videoconference, audioconference, and computer-mediated communication--change the context of the communication to some extent, reducing cues used to regulate...

As we increase our reliance on mediated communication, it is important to be aware the media's influence on group processes and outcomes. A review of 40+ years of research shows that all media-videoconference, audioconference, and computer-mediated communication--change the context of the communication to some extent, reducing cues used to regulate...

Analytical organizations have long recognized the desirability of hierarchical families of models. Although good model hierarchies have existed from time to time, practice has often fallen short of the ideal. Further, given changes in the nature of warfare, as well as the advent of new theories and technologies, it is time to rethink the entire iss...

Over the past half-century, the study of human decision making has evolved from dry philosophy into a diverse set of experimentally-tested, behavior-centered theories. However, the sheer volume of disciplines and sub-disciplines-and the often-esoteric debates that divide them-threaten to obscure the very real advances that have been made in modelin...

This paper is the summary of a recent RAND study done at the request of the U.S. Defense Modeling and Simulation Office (DMSO). Commissioned in recognition that the last decade's efforts by DoD to achieve model "composability" have had only limited success (e.g., HLA-mediated exercises), and that fundamental problems remain, the study surveyed the...

This paper discusses ideas for improving the composability of future models and simulations developed or used by the U.S. Department of Defense. It is largely based on a much longer report requested by the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office (DMSO) as independent advice in developing a program to pursue composability issues. This paper presents...

The advent of concepts such as effects-based operations and decision dominance has led to renewed interest in the modeling of adversaries. This think-piece discusses some of the issues involved in conceiving and implementing such models. In particular, it addresses what behaviors may be of interest, how models might be used in high-level decision s...

Human decisionmaking does not typically fit the classical analytic model, and the heuristics employed may yield a variety of biased judgments. These biases are often considered inherently adverse, but may be functional in some cases. Decision support systems can mitigate some biases, but often introduce others. "Debiasing" decision support systems...

This chapter provides a selective overview of simulation activities taking place within the U.S. defense community. It touches upon work with virtual reality, entity-level simulation for analysis, highly distributed simulation in exercises and experimentation, and low-resolution exploratory analysis for higher-level force planning.

Identifies metrics that can be used to support the operational goals of the U.S. Department of Defense's Quadrennial Defense Review.

A metamodel is relatively small, simple model that approximates the behavior of a large, complex model. A common and superficially attractive way to develop a metamodel is to generate data from a number of large-model runs and to then use off-the-shelf statistical methods without attempting to understand the models internal workings. This paper des...

Models of adversaries' reasoning can be constructed to inform development of adaptive strategies, including strategies that include effects-based operations. Such models can apply to individual leaders or to groups that one seeks to influence. This paper describes an approach to building such models. The results are top-down, highly structured, dri...

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This monograph stems from a project on long-term force planning for the Persian Gulf. The project was commissioned by Lt General M. Esmond, who was then the Deputy Chief of Staff of the United States Air Force (USAF) for Air and Space Operations (AF/XO), and Lt General Charles Wald, commander of the 9th Air Force. The monograph presents analytical...

Relatively simple low-resolution models are needed by human planners and probably by intelligent machines. Ideally, these should be high-level models developed in a multiresolution, multiperspective modeling (MRMPM) framework. That, however, is often difficult. We ask whether statistical meta modeling (i.e., development of response surfaces) can pr...

Multi-resolution/multiple-perspective modeling (MRMPM) is a powerful methodology for developing flexible, adaptive models that can be applied in diverse areas of study. It is useful for addressing the needs of decision makers at different organizational levels, as well as of users who think about phenomenological processes at varied levels of resol...

This paper describes mission-system planning (MSP) and mission-system analysis (MSA). It relate their needs to two frontier subjects: multi resolution, multi perspective modeling (MRMPM) and exploratory analysis. After a brief explanation of mission-system planning, I describe an application: the mission of halting a mechanized invasion force with...

The objective of exploratory analysis is to gain a broad understanding of a problem domain before going into details for particular cases. Its focus is understanding comprehensively the consequences of uncertainty, which requires a good deal more than normal sensitivity analysis. Such analysis is facilitated by multiresolution, multiperspective mod...

Responses to the featured paper are provided by four authors who represent different elements of the simulation research community: industry, private research laboratory, and university. As is evident from the reactions given, these perspective provide both shared and distinct observations on model composability as an opportunity for research inves...

This paper describes and illustrates certain principles for designing adaptive multi-resolution, multi-perspective models (MRMPM). It also demonstrates that modern interactive visual-modeling environments can be key enablers of MRMPM. The benefits are not just for the original model builder, but also for collaborators and subsequent users, who will...

Exploratory analysis uses a low-resolution model for broad survey work. High-resolution simulation can sometimes be used to inform development and calibration of such a model. This paper is a case history of such an effort. The problem at issue was characterizing the effectiveness, in interdicting an invading army, of long-range precision fires. Af...

this report was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted in RAND's National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center supported by the OSD, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies, Contract DASW01-95-C-0059. RAND is a nonprofit institution that...

We have developed and used families of multiresolution and multiple-perspective models (MRM and MRMPM), both in our substantive analytic work for the Department of Defense and to learn more about how such models can be designed and implemented. This paper is a brief case history of our experience with a particular family of models addressing the us...