Paul-Arthur Monerie

Paul-Arthur Monerie
University of Reading · Department of Meteorology

PhD
University of Reading/NCAS

About

49
Publications
9,936
Reads
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940
Citations
Citations since 2017
38 Research Items
816 Citations
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2017201820192020202120222023050100150200250
2017201820192020202120222023050100150200250
2017201820192020202120222023050100150200250
Additional affiliations
October 2009 - June 2013
University of Burgundy
Position
  • PhD Student

Publications

Publications (49)
Article
Full-text available
Anthropogenic aerosol emissions from North America and Europe have strong effects on the decadal variability of the West African monsoon (WAM). Anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing is model dependent, but the impact of such uncertainty on the simulation of long‐term WAM variability is unknown. We use an ensemble of simulations with Had...
Article
Full-text available
North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) underwent pronounced multidecadal variability during the twentieth and early twenty-first century. We examine the impacts of this Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), also referred to as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), on climate in an ensemble of five coupled climate models at both lo...
Preprint
Climate model simulations that restore SSTs in the North Atlantic have been used to explore the climate impacts of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). However, despite simulations and observations exhibiting similar North Atlantic SST anomalies, experiments with active SST-restoring in the Tropical North Atlantic exhibit strong positive surfac...
Article
Full-text available
Northern Hemisphere Land monsoon precipitation (NHLM) exhibits multidecadal variability, decreasing over the second half of the 20 st century and increasing after the 1980s. We use a novel combination of CMIP6 simulations and several large ensembles to assess the relative roles of drivers of monsoon precipitation trends, analyzing the effects of an...
Article
Full-text available
Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) has been linked to the observed slowdown of global warming over 1998–2012 through its impact on the tropical Pacific. Given the global importance of tropical Pacific variability, better understanding this Atlantic–Pacific teleconnection is key for improving climate predictions, but the robustness and strength...
Article
Full-text available
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shows a large diversity of events that is modulated by climate variability and change. The representation of this diversity in climate models limits our ability to predict their impact on ecosystems and human livelihood. Here, we use multiple observational datasets to provide a probabilistic description of histor...
Article
Full-text available
We assess skill of the Met Office’s DePreSys3 prediction system at forecasting summer global monsoon precipitation at the seasonal time scale (2–5 month forecast period). DePreSys3 has significant skill at predicting summer monsoon precipitation (r = 0.68), but the skill varies by region and is higher in the northern (r = 0.68) rather than in the s...
Article
Full-text available
The energy demand for heating and cooling buildings is changing with global warming. Using proxies of climate-driven energy demand based on the heating and cooling Degree-Days methodology applied to thirty global climate model simulations, we show that, over all continental areas, the climate-driven energy demand trends for heating and cooling were...
Preprint
Full-text available
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shows a large diversity of events, whose modulation by climate variability and change, and their representation in climate models, limit our ability to predict their impact on ecosystems and human livelihood. Here, we use multiple observational datasets to provide a probabilistic description of historical variati...
Article
Full-text available
Climate change will drive major perturbations of the West African summer monsoon. A zonal contrast in precipitation will develop at the end of the century, with an increase in precipitation over the central Sahel and a decrease in precipitation over the western Sahel. Such a zonal contrast results from the antagonist effects of the fast (due to enh...
Preprint
Full-text available
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) has been linked to the observed slowdown of global warming over 1998-2012 through its impact on the tropical Pacific. Given the global importance of tropical Pacific variability, better understanding this Atlantic-Pacific teleconnection is key for improving climate predictions, but the robustness and strength...
Article
Full-text available
We assess the effects of the North Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (NASST) on North East Asian (NEA) surface temperature. We use a set of sensitivity experiments, performed with MetUM-GOML2, an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a multi-level ocean mixed layer model, to mimic warming and cooling over the North Atlantic Ocean. R...
Article
Full-text available
The main focus of this study is the zonal contrast of the Sahel precipitation shown in the CMIP5 climate projections: precipitation decreases over the western Sahel (i.e., Senegal and western Mali) and increases over the central Sahel (i.e., eastern Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger). This zonal contrast in future precipitation change is a robust model...
Article
Full-text available
We assess the effect of increasing horizontal resolution on simulated precipitation over South America in a climate model. We use atmosphere-only simulations, performed with HadGEM3-GC31 at three horizontal resolutions: N96 (∼130 km; 1.88∘×1.25∘), N216 (∼60 km; 0.83∘×0.56∘), and N512 (∼25 km; 0.35∘×0.23∘). We show that all simulations have systemat...
Article
Full-text available
The impact of climate change on Sahel precipitation suffers from large uncertainties and is strongly model-dependent. In this study, we analyse sources of inter-model spread in Sahel precipitation change by decomposing precipitation into its dynamic and thermodynamic terms, using a large set of climate model simulations. Results highlight that mode...
Article
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Climate prediction skill on the interannual timescale, which sits between that of seasonal and decadal, is investigated using large ensembles from the Met Office and CESM initialised coupled prediction systems. A key goal is to determine what can be skillfully predicted about the coming year when combining these two ensembles together. Annual surfa...
Article
Full-text available
Quantifying signals and uncertainties in climate models is essential for the detection, attribution, prediction and projection of climate change1–3. Although inter-model agreement is high for large-scale temperature signals, dynamical changes in atmospheric circulation are very uncertain4. This leads to low confidence in regional projections, espec...
Preprint
Full-text available
Abstract. We assess the effect of increasing horizontal resolution on simulated precipitation over South America in a climate model. We use atmosphere-only simulations, performed with HadGEM3-GC31 at three horizontal resolutions: N96 (~ 130 km, 1.88° × 1.25°), N216 (~ 60 km, 0.83° × 0.56°), and N512 (~25 km, 0.35° × 0.23°). We show that all simulat...
Article
Full-text available
We assess the ability of the DePreSys3 prediction system to predict austral summer precipitation (DJF) over southern Africa, defined as the African continent south of 15°S. DePresys3 is a high resolution prediction system (at a horizontal resolution of ~60km in the atmosphere in mid-latitudes and of the quarter degree in the Ocean) and spans the lo...
Article
Full-text available
The tropical Atlantic is home to multiple coupled climate variations covering a wide range of timescales and impacting societally relevant phenomena such as continental rainfall, Atlantic hurricane activity, oceanic biological productivity, and atmospheric circulation in the equatorial Pacific. The tropical Atlantic also connects the southern and n...
Article
Full-text available
The impact of climate change on Sahel precipitation is uncertain and has to be widely documented. Recently, it has been shown that Arctic sea ice loss leverages the global warming effects worldwide, suggesting a potential impact of Arctic sea ice decline on tropical regions. However, defining the specific roles of increasing greenhouse gases (GHG)...
Article
Full-text available
Plain Language Summary Global monsoon precipitation variability has substantial effects on about two thirds of the world's population. Therefore, understanding the factors that drive tropical precipitation is societally important. Here we focus on the effect of North Atlantic sea surface temperature (NASST) variability on global monsoon. To do so w...
Article
Full-text available
We assess the ability of the DePreSys3 prediction system to predict the summer (JJAS) surface-air temperature over North East Asia. DePreSys3 is based on a high resolution ocean–atmosphere coupled climate prediction system (~ 60 km in the atmosphere and ~ 25 km in the ocean), which is full-field initialized from 1960 to 2014 (26 start-dates). We fi...
Article
Full-text available
The ability of a high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (with a horizontal resolution of a quarter of a degree in the ocean and of about 0.5° in the atmosphere) to predict the annual means of temperature, precipitation, sea-ice volume and extent is assessed based on initialized hindcasts over the 1993–2009 period. Signif...
Article
Full-text available
The impact of the greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase on Sahelian precipitation is very uncertain in both its spatial pattern and magnitude. In particular, the relative importance of internal variability versus external forcings depends on the time horizon considered in the climate projection. In this study we address the respective roles of the inter...
Article
Full-text available
Despite a continuous increase in well-mixed greenhouse gases, the global-mean surface temperature has shown a quasi-stabilization since 1998. This muted warming has been linked to the combined effects of internal climate variability and external forcing. The latter includes the impact of recent increase in the volcanic activity and of solar irradia...
Presentation
Full-text available
Projections of the West African Monsoon evolution is highly uncertain, due to i) scenario differences, ii) model parametrizations, iii) initial climate variability. We assess in this study the role of internal climate variability on the climate projections ; especially for short term projections, for which internal climate variability has a stronge...
Article
Full-text available
Future changes in the structure of daily rainfall, especially the number of rainy days and the intensity of extreme events, are likely to induce major impacts on rain-fed agriculture in the tropics. In Africa this issue is of primary importance, but the agreement between climate models to simulate such descriptors of rainfall is generally poor. Her...
Article
Full-text available
The future evolution of the West African Monsoon is studied by analyzing 32 CMIP5 models under the rcp8.5 emission scenario. A hierarchical clustering method based on the simulated pattern of precipitation changes is used to classify the models. Four groups, which do not agree on the simple sign of future Sahel precipitation change, are obtained. W...
Article
Thirteen CMIP5 models are used to analyse changes in climate over the West African monsoon region between the near future (2031–2070 under the RCP4.5 emission scenario), and a control period (1960–1999 under the historical emission scenario), with a focus on the late rainy season. The monsoon circulation is projected to strengthen and to shift nort...
Article
This study documents the time evolution of air temperature and heat waves occurrences over Northern Africa for the period 1979–2011. A significant warming (1°–3°C), appearing by the mid-1960s over Sahara and Sahel, is associated with higher/lesser frequency of warm/ cold temperatures, as with longer duration and higher occurrences of heat waves. He...
Thesis
Full-text available
The fourth IPCC report in 2007 established the synthesis of previously published work on the effects of climate change on global and regional scales. It shows in particular that no consensus can be found with regard to the future of rainfall — and atmospheric dynamics- associated with region — African monsoon. This dissertation revisits this issue...
Article
Full-text available
The fourth IPCC report in 2007 established the synthesis of previously published work onthe effects of climate change on global and regional scales. It shows in particular that no consensuscan be found with regard to the future of rainfall -- and atmospheric dynamics- associatedwith region -- African monsoon. This dissertation revisits this issue i...
Article
Future climate changes in African regions are model-dependent and there is no consensus regarding Sahelian rainfall by the end of this century. Using 12 atmosphere-ocean global climate models of the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) we propose a multi-model (MM) analysis contrasting the 1960–1999 period (20c3m integration) and the...
Article
Full-text available
[1] The accuracy of African Monsoon (AM) simulations together with expected future changes are presented using eight available CMIP5/AR5 AOGCMs under the RCP4.5 emission scenario and eight CMIP3/AR4 AOGCMs under the A1b scenario, with a multimodel approach and the “one model one vote” concept. The results refer to the ‘present’ period (1960–1999) a...
Article
Based on the approach of Fontaine et al. (2011) we study the accuracy of the African Monsoon (AM) simulations and expected future changes. We used 8 available CMIP5/AR5 AOGCMs from 8 different climate centres and the RCP4.5 emission scenario. Data are analysed with a multi-model approach and the "one model one vote" concept. The results refer to th...
Article
This paper analyzes the atmospheric and rainfall anomaly patterns in the African-Indian monsoon region concomitant of warm/cold anomalies confined in the Mediterranean Sea in northern summer. It examines first the similarities and contrasts observed in longitudes, then discusses the results obtained regarding the normal in terms of climate impacts...
Article
This study documents simulated precipitation and circulation changes through the 20C3M and A1b scenarios. It portrays a robust pattern, associating rainfall deficits in subtropical regions with rainfall excesses over West Africa, except in Northern Senegal and Mauritania, with a significant enhancement of both the April–June rainy season in 10/12 m...

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Projects

Projects (3)
Project
DUBSTEP project aims to improve our understanding and predictions of sub-seasonal variability in the hydrological cycle over South America generally, and Brazil specifically. The major areas of research in this project are: (a) Subseasonal rainfall skill; (b) High-resolution model evaluation; (c) Large-scale teleconnections; (d) Land-surface processes and drought; and (e) Representation of convection in climate models.