Patrick Sturgis

University of Southampton · Faculty of Social and Human Sciences

In this paper, we consider the role of personality as a component of motivation in promoting or inhibiting the tendency to exhibit the satisficing response styles of midpoint, straightlining, and Don’t Know responding. We assess whether respondents who are low on the Conscientiousness and Agreeableness dimensions of the Big Five Personality Invento...

While scholarly attention to date has focused almost entirely on individual-level drivers of vaccine confidence, we show that macro-level factors play an important role in understanding individual propensity to be confident about vaccination. We analyse data from the 2018 Wellcome Global Monitor survey covering over 120,000 respondents in 126 count...

Recent studies of social mobility have documented that not only who your parents are, but also where you grow up, substantially influences subsequent life chances. We bring these two concepts together to study social mobility in England and Wales, in three post‐war generations, using linked Decennial Census data. Our findings show considerable spat...

Objectives Test whether cooperation with the police can be modelled as a place-based norm that varies in strength from one neighborhood to the next. Estimate whether perceived police legitimacy predicts an individual’s willingness to cooperate in weak-norm neighborhoods, but not in strong-norm neighborhoods where most people are either willing or u...

As citizens around the world become ever more reluctant to respond to survey interview requests, incentives are playing an increasingly important role in maintaining response rates. In face-to-face surveys, interviewers are the key conduit of information about the existence and level of any incentive offered and, therefore, potentially moderate the...

Survey researchers have consistently found that interviewers make a small but systematic contribution to variability in response times. However, we know little about what the characteristics of interviewers are that lead to this effect. In this paper we address this gap in understanding by linking item level response times from wave three of the UK...

Objectives: Test whether cooperation with the police can be modelled as a placed-based norm that varies in strength from one neighborhood to the next. Estimate whether police legitimacy predicts willingness to cooperate in weak-norm neighborhoods, but not in strong-norm neighborhoods, where most people are willing to cooperate (or not to cooperate)...

We describe a procedure for assessing the validity of survey questions. Response probes are administered that ask respondents to say in their own words what came to mind when answering the question. The verbatim responses are coded to a frame that captures the conceptual content of the responses and are then included as predictors in a regression m...

p>Held in October 2018, The Big Data Meets Survey Science conference, also known as “BigSurv18,” provided a first-of-its-kind opportunity for survey researchers, statisticians, computer scientists, and data scientists to convene under the same roof. At this conference, scientists from multiple disciplines were able to exchange ideas about their wor...

Recent social and educational policy debate in the UK has been strongly influenced by studies which have found children’s cognitive developmental trajectories to be significantly affected by the socio-economic status of the households into which they were born. Most notably, using data from the 1970 British cohort study, Feinstein (2003) concluded...

As citizens around the world become ever more reluctant to respond to survey interview requests, incentives are playing an increasingly important role in maintaining response rates. In face-to-face surveys, interviewers are the key conduit of information about the existence and level of any incentive offered and, therefore, potentially moderate the...

The opinion polls that were undertaken before the 2015 UK general election underestimated the Conservative lead over Labour by an average of 7 percentage points. This collective failure led politicians and commentators to question the validity and utility of political polling and raised concerns regarding a broader public loss of confidence in surv...

Existing studies have generally measured collective efficacy by combining survey respondents’ ratings of their local area into an overall summary for each neighborhood. Naturally, this results in a substantive focus on the variation in average levels of collective efficacy between neighborhoods. In this paper, we focus on the variation in consensus...

p>In social science, we typically work with measures that are laden with errors. Theories are generally couched in terms of constructs or phenomena that are unobserved or unobservable but nevertheless have empirical implications. It is these unobservable indicators that we actually analyze. Hence, an important preliminary task for an analyst is to...

Across the history of survey research, advances in technology, demand by data users, and shifts in societal acceptance have afforded opportunities for new data collection modes and techniques to be applied. This chapter highlights a number of opportunities that have recently become available, some of which may be underutilized or entirely neglected...

The opinion polls that were undertaken before the 2015 UK general election underestimated the Conservative lead over Labour by an average of 7 percentage points. This collective failure led politicians and commentators to question the validity and utility of political polling and raised concerns regarding a broader public loss of confidence in surv...

This study assesses how survey outcome distributions change over repeated calls made to addresses in face-to-face household interview surveys. We consider this question for 541 survey variables, drawn from six major face-to-face UK surveys that have different sample designs, cover different topic areas, and achieve response rates between 54 and 76...

We assess how survey outcome distributions change over repeated calls made to addresses in face-to- face household interview surveys. We consider this question for 559 survey variables, drawn from six major face-to-face UK surveys which have different sample designs, cover different topic areas, and achieve response rates between 54% and 76%. Using...

In this paper we add to the existing evidence base on recent trends in inter-generational social mobility in England and Wales. We analyse data from the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study (ONS-LS), which links individual records from the five decennial censuses between 1971 and 2011. The ONS-LS is an excellent data resource for the s...

We propose a cross-classified mixed effects location–scale model for the analysis of interviewer effects in survey data. The model extends the standard two-way cross-classified random-intercept model (respondents nested in interviewers crossed with areas) by specifying the residual variance to be a function of covariates and an additional interview...

Reforms which increase the stock of education in a society have long been held by policy-makers as key to improving rates of intergenerational social mobility. Yet, despite the intuitive plausibility of this idea, the empirical evidence in support of an effect of educational expansion on social fluidity is both indirect and weak. In this paper we u...

As part of its national strategic remit, NCRM undertakes periodic assessments of national provision and need in methodological research and training through consultation with stakeholders. In November of 2014 NCRM carried out a third consultation on the views of the UK social science research community about current and future methodological resear...

According to Krosnick's influential account, survey satisficing occurs when a respondent decides to use a lower level of cognitive effort in order to provide a satisfactory but less accurate answer than would have been produced if a greater amount of effort had been expended on the task. Satisficing theory has rapidly become the dominant framework...

Contextual theories of political behaviour assert that the contexts in which people live influence their political beliefs and vote choices. Most studies, however, fail to distinguish contextual influence from self-selection of individuals into areas. This article advances understanding of this controversy by tracking the left–right position and pa...

Non-sampling errors, and in particular, those arising from non-response and the measurement process itself present a particular challenge to survey methodologists, because it is not always easy to disentangle their joint effects on the data. Given that factors influencing the decision to participate in a survey may also influence the respondents' m...

According to Krosnick's influential account, survey satisficing occurs when a respondent decides to use a lower level of cognitive effort in order to provide a satisfactory but less accurate answer than would have been produced if a greater amount of effort had been expended on the task. Satisficing theory has rapidly become the dominant framework...

In this study we analyse the effect of participation in an online asynchronous discussion forum on the direction and magnitude of opinion change and policy preferences relating to youth antisocial behaviour among a large sample of online panel members. Panel members were randomly assigned to conditions that manipulated: (1) the amount of informatio...

As the currents of globalisation edge the number and proportion of immigrant groups in towns and cities throughout the world ever higher, the question of whether and how ethnic diversity affects the social cohesion of communities has become an increasingly prominent and contested topic of academic and political debate. The majority of extant empiri...

The use of genetics in medical research is one of the most important avenues currently being explored to enhance human health. For some, the idea that we can intervene in the mechanisms of human existence at such a fundamental level can be at minimum worrying and at most repugnant. In particular, religious doctrines are likely to collide with the r...

The recent deep cuts to police force budgets in the United Kingdom have reawakened longstanding debates about the effect of police numbers and organization on the crime rate and public confidence in the police. Whereas some claim that a reduction in numbers is likely to have a deleterious effect, others argue that raw numbers are less important tha...

Proponents of controversial Complementary and Alternative Medicines, such as homeopathy, argue that these treatments can be used with great effect in addition to, and sometimes instead of, 'conventional' medicine. In doing so, they accept the idea that the scientific approach to the evaluation of treatment does not undermine use of and support for...

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Proponents of complementary and alternative medicine argue that these treatments can be used with great effect in addition to, and sometimes instead of, conventional medicine, a position which has drawn sustained opposition from those who advocate an evidence-based approach to the evaluation of treatment efficacy. Using recent survey data from the...

Social, or ’generalized‘, trust refers to beliefs that people hold about how other people in society will in general act towards them. Can people in general be trusted? Or must one be careful in dealing with people? Research on the antecedents of social trust has typically relied on cross-sectional regression estimators to evaluate putative causes....

A persistent problem in the design of bipolar attitude questions is whether or not to include a middle response alternative. On the one hand, it is reasonable to assume that people might hold opinions which are `neutral' with regard to issues of public controversy. On the other, question designers suspect that offering a mid-point may attract respo...

This paper examines the earnings returns to learning that takes place following the conventional ‘school-to-work’ stage of the life-course. We operationalise such ‘lifelong learning’ as the attainment of certified qualifications in adulthood, following the completion of the first period of continuous full-time education. Using data from the British...

This paper examines the earnings returns to learning that takes place following the conventional 'school-to-work' stage of the life-course. We operationalise such 'lifelong learning' as the attainment of certified qualifications in adulthood, following the completion of the first period of continuous full-time education. Using data from the British...

Evidence is now beginning to accumulate that shows that interviewer attitudes, personality, and behavior are predictive of success in achieving contact and cooperation with sampled households. A less frequently explored possibility, however, is that these same characteristics might also be the source of variability in the extent to which interviewe...

Empirical analyses of the causes of public confidence in policing have been based almost entirely on cross-sectional survey data, with a consequent focus on between-group differences in levels of confidence at a single point in time. Our aim here is to introduce a time dimension to this area of investigation. Employing repeated cross-sectional surv...

The primary method by which social scientists describe public opinion about science and technology is to present frequencies from fixed response survey questions and to use multivariate statistical models to predict where different groups stand with regard to perceptions of risk and benefit. Such an approach requires measures of individual preferen...

For a long time, criminologists have contended that neighborhoods are important determinants of how individuals perceive their risk of criminal victimization. Yet, despite the theoretical importance and policy relevance of these claims, the empirical evidence base is surprisingly thin and inconsistent. Drawing on data from a national probability sa...

We use a multi-level modelling approach to estimate the effect of ethnic diversity on measures of generalized and strategic trust using data from a new survey in Britain with a sample size approaching 25,000 individuals. In addition to the ethnic diversity of neighbourhoods, we incorporate a range of indicators of the socio-economic characteristics...

In social science, we typically work with measures that are laden with error. This chapter provides a non-technical introduction to the use of confirmatory factor analysis for cross-national comparisons that include mean structures and control for measurement errors. This method allows for the testing of hypotheses about group mean differences on u...

The authors of this chapter examine data from the European Social Survey (ESS) and, using structural equation modelling techniques, develop measures for three elements of social capital; social trust, institutional trust and civic association. The analysis explores how these three elements are related after controlling for a range of social and psy...

A propensity to believe that fellow citizens will not act against our interests in social and economic transactions has been identified as key to the effective functioning of democratic polities. Yet the causes of this type of ‘generalized’ or ‘social’ trust are far from clear. To date, researchers within the social and political sciences have focu...

In this paper, we use follow-up probes administered to respondents who initially select the mid-point to determine whether they selected this alternative in order to indicate opinion neutrality, or to indicate that they do not have an opinion on the issue. We find the vast majority of responses turn out to be what we term 'face-saving don't knows'...

In the social capital literature a distinction is made between trust expressed in people in general, and trust in people who are known to us personally. In this article we investigate the frames of reference respondents make use of when answering two commonly used interpersonal trust questions. Half of our sample was administered a version which as...

We use an experimental panel study design to investigate the effect of providing "value-neutral" information about genomic science in the form of a short film to a random sample of the British public. We find little evidence of attitude change as a function of information provision. However, our results show that information provision significantly...

Social, or ‘generalized’ trust is often characterised as the ‘attitudinal dimension’ of social capital. It has been posited as key to a host of normatively desirable outcomes at the societal and individual levels. Yet the origins of individual variation in trust remain something of a mystery and continue to be a source of dissensus amongst research...

It has long been suspected that, when asked to provide opinions on matters of public policy, significant numbers of those surveyed do so with only the vaguest understanding of the issues in question. In this article, we present the results of a study which demonstrates that a significant minority of the British public are, in fact, willing to provi...

Social, or ‘generalized’ trust is often characterised as the ‘attitudinal dimension’ of social capital. It has been posited as key to a host of normatively desirable outcomes at the societal and individual levels. Yet the origins of individual variation in trust remain something of a mystery and continue to be a source of dissensus amongst research...

This paper investigates the returns to lifelong learning, which is interpreted as the attainment of qualifications following entry into the labour market. For a number of reasons our analysis of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) represents an important addition to the existing evidence base. We allow for financial and non-financial returns...

In a series of articles, Mondak and colleagues argue that the conventional way of measuring political knowledge in surveys is flawed. Personality related “propensity to guess” underestimates the level of political knowledge in the population and distorts estimates of between group differences, when a DK alternative is offered. This has led Mondak t...

This research was commissioned to examine the potential non-pecuniary benefits of lifelong learning and to identify whether such benefits are evident and consider their implications for policy development. Specifically, the research aims to answer the following questions: To what extent is gaining qualifications in adulthood related to subsequent i...

We present the results of a survey experiment in which we manipulate the order that respon-dents are administered vote choice and economic evaluation items. Our findings add to the growing body of evidence which suggests that survey respondents tacitly align evaluations of the national economy with previously stated attitudes and behaviour. Our res...

Graphical chain modelling (GCM) and structural equation modelling (SEM) are two approaches to modelling longitudinal data. Both approaches have their origins in path analysis and provide pictorial representations of the association between variables, which are usually ordered temporally. Both methods also aim to identify the direct and indirect eff...

rounds of the panel may be influenced by those given in earlier waves. The majority of empirical investigations of panel conditioning effects have focused on estimating biases in marginal totals of behavioural frequency, such as electoral turnout (Clausen 1969), consumer spending (Pennell and Lepkowski 1992) and alcohol and drug use (Johnson, Gerst...

This paper investigates the returns from lifelong learning, as measured by qualification achievement after a period in the labour market. We depart from other studies by using the annual panel data of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and considering two outcomes, hourly earnings and the CAMSIS score (a measure of occupational status). A fi...

This collection brings together the key publications on the secondary analysis of data and embraces many aspects of how to analyse quantitative survey data, whether primary or secondary. As secondary analysis, defined as use of data that was collected by individuals other than the investigator, is often a starting point for other social science res...

Public authorities are increasingly using information and communication technology (ICT) to engage citizens in the politics, in particular through internet discussion forums. This paper reports findings from a large-scale online randomised controlled trail of 6,009 participants that aims to test the effect of online deliberation on policy preferenc...

We present a new methodological approach to the study of social mobility. We use a latent class growth analysis framework to identify five qualitatively distinct social class trajectory groups between 1980 and 2000 for male respondents to the 1970 British Cohort Study. We model the antecedents of trajectory group membership via multinomial logistic...

A bstract This article presents analyses of individual investment in social capital using both the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and the UK Time Use Survey (2000) (UKTUS). We suggest a general theoretical framework that could possibly explain individual investment in various forms of social networking. Measures of social capital are then co...

The correlation between knowledge and attitudes has been the source of controversy in research on the public understanding of science (PUS). Although many studies, both quantitative and qualitative, have examined this issue, the results are at best diverse and at worst contradictory. In this paper, we review the evidence on the relationship between...

In a series of articles, Mondak and colleagues argue that the conventional way of measuring political knowledge in surveys is flawed. Personality related "propensity to guess" underestimates the level of political knowledge in the population and distorts estimates of between group differences, when a DK alternative is offered. This has led Mondak t...

We use a graphical chain model to investigate the reciprocal relationships between changes in women's labour force participation following entry into parenthood and changes in gender role attitude. Results suggest that attitudes are not fixed and that revision of these attitudes in the light of recent life course events is an important process. The...