Patrick A. Van der DuinForesight & Innovation Management
Patrick A. Van der Duin
PhD
About
101
Publications
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Introduction
Additional affiliations
September 2016 - May 2022
The Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends
Position
- Managing Director
September 2013 - September 2017
Fontys University of Applied Sciences
Position
- associate professor Futures research & Trendwatching
March 2001 - September 2016
Publications
Publications (101)
Spatial planning is an inherently future-oriented practice charged with future
expectations. Strikingly, the productive role of these expectations has
received little scholarly attention. We adopted a grounded theory approach
to study the participatory planning process for Seelig Park in Breda, the
Netherlands. We observed that expectations are fle...
The stage-gate method was initially developed as a description of the new product
development practices within high-performing firms. At its heart the concept is simple:
and the flow of activity of a stage-gate includes project action, information generation,
analysis and decision. Research has shown that the stage-gate method has been extremely
su...
Because the future belongs to all of us, knowing what people think about the future is not only interesting, but also relevant to the functioning of modern democracies.
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Dutch people are generally positive about technology and science, but more gloomy when it comes to the future of society.
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People find it difficult to think about the (distant)...
Because the future belongs to all of us, not just to experts or professionals, knowing what people think about the future is not only interesting, but also relevant to the functioning of modern democracies. This study about what Dutch people think about the future and about technology shows, among other things, that they are generally positive abou...
Combining historical economic data and positivistic, standard neoclassical economic theories does not give a sufficient nuanced view on different economic futures that address the future inherent uncertainty. Economic history does not repeat itself making economic systems 'open systems', and economic laws cannot be regarded as laws in the natural s...
Combining historical economic data and positivistic, standard neoclassical economic theories does not give a sufficient nuanced view on different economic futures that address the future inherent uncertainty. Economic history does not repeat itself making economic systems ‘open systems’, and economic laws cannot be regarded as laws in the natural s...
Education is one of the most essential elements of our society, which is why it has been the subject of dozens of foresight studies. What is currently missing however is a clear picture of the possible roles ICT can play in education. Through a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the large number of diverse studies, this article sheds light on...
Given the longtime horizons of investments and strategic decisions among Dutch infrastructure providers, the future is a very relevant topic to all of them. The purpose of this chapter is to describe how these organizations practice foresight. It turns out that the way these organizations carry out foresight can vary. Some organizations use scenari...
Drastic changes in technology, economy, and society will be the harbingers of a different future. Agri-food industry will both be affected by the changes and the source of some of the changes, such as smart farming, gen technology, vertical agriculture, and sensor technology. These technological changes will alter the structure of the agriculture s...
Fast and unforeseen technological, political, and socio-economic developments make it increasingly difficult to do foresight, while simultaneously increasing the need, use, and curiosity to do so in the field of policy planning. Therefore, the Dutch government has promoted long-term thinking which has resulted in an extensive and diverse landscape...
Innovation and foresight should be two sides of the same coin. In the area of innovation, the concept of “responsible innovation” has emerged, signifying that innovation processes have to take into account ethical, social, and cultural considerations and changes. A better and more just society will not be created if we only give priority to technol...
Experts play an important role in foresight. However, their expertise can also limit their view on potential new developments and thereby reduce the predictive as well as the explorative quality of foresight. This is why involving citizens or laypeople is potentially a welcome addition when studying the future. In this paper, we present the results...
The increasing importance of innovation and the different ways organisations manage innovation calls for a different way to understand innovation processes. The Cyclic Innovation Model is an attempt to better describe and understand how innovation systems are being developed, how they are managed, and why certain innovation systems fail. The essenc...
Managing the short term and the long term is crucial to the survival of companies. It can be done in different ways but it is more difficult for SMEs than for large companies, because, among other things, they have fewer tools at their disposal. For Ampelmann, the case we focus on in this study, at company level, only contextual and leadership-rela...
The 'Horizon Scan 2050'-project identified so-called 'Signals for Change', i.e. developments that might affect the existing visions on the Grand (Societal) Challenges that the Dutch society faces. Using a long time horizon, various developments within societal domains were examined for the signals. The method used was a combination of analyzing sig...
This book is meant for everyone who is interested in the looking at the future. For everyone who thinks the future is important, perhaps even more important than the past. And many people are involved with the future. Whether you are a student, a civil servant at a government ministry or in a small municipality, a politician, a techno-starter or an...
The purpose of this book is to provide students with a text that can help them improve their entrepreneurial skills and enable them to be more successful at turning their technology into a business venture.
After many years of helping students start their own business and teaching many more aspects of entrepreneurship and innovation management we...
Responsible innovation (RI) among technology-based start-ups has received little attention, while these firms are known to operate on the edges of what is socially desirable or ethically acceptable. In this paper we develop a conceptual model that captures the RI practices among 61 academic spin-offs and investigate how it affects the capacity of t...
Responsible innovation (RI) among technology-based start-ups has received little attention, while these firms are known to operate on the edges of what is socially desirable or ethically acceptable. In this paper we develop a conceptual model that captures the RI practices among 61 academic spin-offs and investigate how it affects the capacity of t...
In ‘No place for Religion at TU Delft?’ (Delta 23/2/2015), a number of staff members complain that there is little room for religion at Delft University of Technology. Patrick van der Duin thinks, however, that the existing religious freedoms should not be expanded and that our curriculum remains free of religious influence.
Innovate, innovate, innovate, it has become the mantra of any company. But how much stands of these ambitions after the business case is completed. And what does it take to truly innovate as a company. Patrick van der Duin sheds light on the subject from a corporate as well as a academic perspective to make recommendations for understanding and imp...
In the last 50 years, the Dutch innovation system has contributed significantly to the country's economic and social prosperity. Its most important strengths are the high quality of its scientific institutions, good access to ICT and the existence of very diversified industrial networks. However, in order to stay innovative. The Dutch innovation sy...
De wetenschapper is geen wereldvreemd persoon die belastinggeld wil uitgeven aan persoonlijke hobby's. Gun hem dan ook zijn academische vrijheid.
Cross-innovations are very important for the transition from an ‘innovation economy to a ‘creative society’. This requires that local governmental innovation policies regarding the initiation and development of cross-innovations also change. Although the creative industry in the Amsterdam-region is not performing badly, modernizing their cross-inno...
In this paper, we discuss the opinions and experiences of local and national Dutch policy-makers in applying foresight methods within the context of strategic policy processes. Motives behind the selection of foresight methods, the timing involved in using insights from foresight studies in strategic policy-making processes, the added value of fore...
Innovation is of vital importance, not only to commercial companies, but also to governments. For the Dutch, innovation in the field of water management is even a matter of survival, because much of their country lies below sea level. An evaluation of a water innovation program carried out by the Dutch government, using the cyclic innovation model,...
To improve its innovation process, Philips Shaving and Beauty (S&B) designed a blueprint for its innovation process. Although it has proved to be quite effective, it has experienced a lack of efficiency, in terms of frequent cost and time overruns, in the fuzzy front end of this process. We suggest a contextual innovation management approach to set...
Along with the rise of the now popular ‘open’ paradigm in innovation management, networks have become a common approach to practicing innovation. Foresight could potentially greatly benefit from resources that become available when the knowledge base increases through networks. This article seeks to investigate how innovation networks and foresight...
Considering users as innovators has gained considerable support over the past 30 years. Eric von Hippel’s work in this area forms a significant part of the theoretical underpinning and evidence behind this concept. Many further studies have been undertaken to support it. It has contributed to our understanding of innovation management in general an...
Since many of today's problems are becoming ever more complex, the way we look for and manage innovations to solve these problems should also be innovated. We introduce the ‘Collective Innovation’ approach to deal with these kind of ‘wicked problems’ that require the input of many different parties. Furthermore, in Collective Innovation it is cruci...
Evaluation of futures research (foresight) consists of three elements: quality, success, and impact of a study. Futures research ought to be methodologically and professionally sound, should to a certain extent be accurate, and should have a degree of impact on strategic decision making and policy-making. However, in the case of futures studies, th...
Research among twelve Dutch companies shows a diversity of approaches and practices of how they look at the future for innovation. The companies have become more open in their futures research process and have come down the ivory tower to practice a more interactive way of looking at the future. The required broad view of the future has also taught...
Delta regions worldwide have to cope with increasing pressure on land use and the consequences of climate change and rising sea levels. Because existing approaches and solutions are no longer sufficient to face future challenges of flood protection, sustainable energy and freshwater supply, truly innovative approaches and technologies have to be de...
A Delphi study was performed to answer the question: Which global societal trends relate to future radicalization and subsequent terrorism in the Netherlands? An inventory of two hundred global societal trends and a literature study of radicalization together served as briefing of the participants in the Delphi study. The first two rounds were cond...
Futures research can support decisions concerning innovation and strategy issues. To encourage companies to use the results of futures studies, the futures researcher has to be aware of how those companies (clients) have organised their innovation and strategy processes. It is our position that futures researchers should balance the way they conduc...
This paper analyses the development of wind power in The Netherlands and Denmark in the period 1973-2000 with the cyclic innovation model (CIM). CIM regards innovation as a cyclic process in which different actors constantly develop and exchange knowledge through four different types of cycles: hard science cycle, soft science cycle, integrated eng...
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyze the future-orientation of the Dutch innovation system and formulate recommendations to improve it. Design/methodology/approach - The approach takes the form of in-depth interviews with Dutch experts who are sufficiently independent to formulate relevant, interesting, and deviating opinions. Findings...
Purpose
An uncertain future means that Dutch government ministries need to think about not only what new policies have to be developed, but also how to organize themselves in the future. This paper aims to present an overview and analysis of various studies of the futures by and about Dutch ministries that show that these studies vary considerably,...
To determine the sustainability of the policy, an Early Warning System (EWS) has been developed for the Dutch Ministry of Justice. An EWS is used to monitor various developments and to place them within the perspective of future scenarios. Without actually predicting the future, this makes it possible to determine which scenario is the most relevan...
A sound innovation policy is key for Dutch policy makers since its national innovativeness is decreasing according to several international studies. Based on in-depth interviews with 15 Dutch innovation-experts several findings were identified that explain the decreased Dutch innovativeness: e.g., a low level of knowledge absorptive capacity by Dut...
The Dutch government has to operate in an extremely complex environment with various actors who have different interests, in a time that can be considered highly uncertain. Although this makes the usefulness of and need for futures research evident, the question remains how the Dutch government uses futures research in its strategy and policy forma...
A sound innovation policy to improve national competitiveness is key for today's policy makers. The Netherlands wants to be in the top 5 of most competitive economies worldwide by being more innovative. However, its innovativeness is not increasing according to several international studies. 15 acclaimed Dutch innovation-experts identify 7 reasons...
Like any other science, to remain a worthwhile scientific discipline, futures research needs to reflect on itself. It needs to do so from three perspectives: 1) futures research is regarded as an applied science: a closer connection between studying the future in an academic manner and conducting futures research can improve the quality and subsequ...
Futures research can support decisions concerning innovation and strategy issues. To encourage companies to use the results of futures studies, the futures researcher has to be aware of how those companies (clients) have organised their innovation and strategy processes. It is our position that futures researchers should balance the way they conduc...
This paper focuses on future developments in society in general, and in the insurance industry in particular, and the development of business models that can be used to reinforce the position of intermediaries in the insurance value chain in a time when they face uncertain technical, marketing and regulatory developments. This paper attempts to int...
Purpose
In recent decades, innovation management has changed. This article provides an overview of the changes that have taken place, focusing on innovation management in large companies, with the aim of explaining that innovation management has evolved toward a contextual approach, which it will explain and illustrate using two cases.
Design/meth...
Purpose - This paper aims to describe three major difficulties with dealing with the future. Design/methodology/approach - The paper is an essay with limited use of literature. Findings - Looking to the future is difficult due to cognitive, social, business problems. Research limitations/implications - No empirical research was conducted. Practical...
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate a possible business model for telecom operators for entering the IPTV (digital television) market.
Design/methodology/approach
The approach takes the form of a case study, literature search and interviews.
Findings
The IPTV business model always has to adjust to the change of external factors an...
The future of egovernment is very uncertain and requires to be approached by depicting different scenario in which a wide range of contextual factors, such as social, cultural, institutional and economic should be described. The scenarios in this paper are focused on 2020 and situated along two scenario-axes which form the framework in which the sc...
The final stage in the STOF method is an evaluation of the robustness of the design, for which the method provides some guidelines. For many innovative services, the future holds numerous uncertainties, which makes evaluating the robustness of a business model a difficult task. In this chapter, we apply scenario analysis to assess business model ro...
We present an explorative study of 43 techno-starters in the area of Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands. The leading question is how these young technology-based companies look to the future, and which factors determine the use and scope of explicit futures research methods and the length of their time horizon. Six hypotheses are tes...
New developments in the mobile telecom industry, such as growing transmission bandwidth and sector-crossing business alliances, change the way in which mobile telco's are innovating. Traditional innovation models, such as the single-company linear model ('pipeline model'), do no longer describe how innovation occurs today. An interesting alternativ...
This special section focuses on the gap between technology foresight and market research when
previewing the potential of breakthrough technologies. Previewing this potential enables companies to
focus their efforts when they are developing and commercializing these technologies. The gap between
technology foresight and market research hampers thei...
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how Dutch society is dealing with its history and why the past is a bad guide to the future.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper is a desk research based on newspaper articles and other literature.
Findings
The paper finds that Dutch society is strongly influenced by its history but past soluti...
The duration of an innovation process, from new idea to new business, may take many years. This makes it necessary to incorporate a vision of the future. The Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM) shows that aspects such as multiplicity (looking at multi-fold futures) and multidimensionality (looking at different aspects of the future) should be taken into...
Intellectual property (IP) and the legal protection thereof are of paramount importance in innovation. IP plays an important role in each of the four fundamental nodes of the Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM). While no one can claim property rights on knowledge in the science node, intellectual property rights (IPR) are essential in the development of...
Thixomolding® refers to a new technology to mold a magnesium alloy in elaborate forms. The actors that introduced this technology in the Netherlands first operated on a regional level. With the support of the Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM), the innovation system was able to evolve by developing new innovations, although initially Class 1 and 2 type...
In order to understand today's innovation models, we need to look at the historical development of these models. This chapter describes the succession of the R&D management generations and discusses the innovation models in each generation (Section 2). The shortcomings of these models and the requirements for improved versions are summarized in Sec...
The ability to predict the market potential of product concepts at an early stage is of great importance to many organizations. In terms of Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM), this activity occurs in the lower right part of the cycle. Standard approaches to predict the market potential like concept testing and need assessment, and the assumptions that a...
The Cyclic Innovation Model is applied to a new process for the production of fine chemicals and pharmaceuticals using a combination of ionic liquids and supercritical carbon dioxide. This multi-value innovation combines economic growth with environmental concerns and social value. The most important obstacles in the implementation of this new tech...
Donald Stokes’ approach to map the names of prominent scientists onto adiagram showing their impact on fundamental science and applied science is adopted and expanded to illustrate the dynamic interactions of the four nodes of the Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM). Tagging names of prototypical role models onto the four nodes and cycles of CIM increase...
Communication studies pay little attention to futures research, while there is a lack of communication knowledge in futures research.This article discusses the function of futures research and ways to embed domain knowledge in predictions. First, it looks at futures research in relation to the use of information and communication technology (ICT) i...
Purpose
This paper seeks to evaluate future studies in order to improve futures research.
Design/methodology/approach
Case studies were researched.
Findings
The current study of the future carried out by the Dutch Innovation Platform (responsible for innovation policy) resembles an old‐fashioned utopism whereas a study conducted in 1977 by the Du...
Innovation processes have changed significantly in the last four decades. Organizations no longer innovate on their own, aware that they need to decentralize their innovation activities and have to cooperate closely with other organizations in innovation systems. In this paper we discuss the spatial consequences of these developments, introducing t...
E-government research is currently at a stage of consolidation and new orientation. Smaller steps of government modernization have in part been successfully implemented; larger ones still lie ahead of us. Within an EC funded project, a roadmap for e- government is being defined. Thereby, scenario building about the future is being used to grasp pic...
Many European Union (EU) Member States have revised their strategies for public sector modernization and transformation of e-government to meet the objectives of the EU. Yet these strategies and activities often focus on the short or mid-term and there is no clear on the future of e-government. The eGovRTD2020 project aims at sketching e-government...
Scenarios and innovation are related to each other through the lead time and uncertainty of innovation processes. By using scenarios, an organisation can prevent investing too much time, money and other resources in ideas for innovations that may not be successful in the future. This paper will specifically report about two cases in which scenarios...
Innovation models should give insight into the success and failure of generating new business. Considering the high degree of complexity, it is proposed to view such models at different levels of abstraction. It is also proposed to make feedback an essential property of the process model. The result of this line of thinking is an integrated environ...
Many e-government research and policy-making activities focus on the short or mid term. Yet the question remains how e-government will look like in 2020 and what kind of research is needed to ensure that desired futures are realized and unwanted futures can be avoided. In this paper we will look at this long time horizon and describe the results of...
In the innovation literature, the development of innovation models is subdivided into generations. Until now, we distinguish three generations. Because current models provide a poor representation of what happens in today's open innovation networks, there is a growing need for a fourth-generation concept. So far, requirements for next-generation co...
Looking back at futures studies in the past (past futures) is perhaps the second nature of futures researchers. In this article we look back at a study that was conducted by the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy in 1977. We considered it interesting to assess its value 25 years later since many changes have taken place in technol...
Many forms of analyzing future technology and its consequences coexist, for example, technology intelligence, forecasting, roadmapping, assessment, and foresight.
All of these techniques fit into a field we call technology
futures analysis (TFA). These methods have matured rather separately,
with little interchange and sharing of information on met...
The mobile telecommunications industry needs to develop services for the mobile data market, not only to regain their investments in licenses but also to stay competitive in the future. The current turbulence on markets, politics and technology is generating many uncertainties with regard to, for instance, user needs, dominant technology and the ro...
New developments in the mobile telecom industry, such as growing transmission bandwidth and sector-crossing business alliances, change the way in which mobile telco's are innovating. Traditional innovation models, such as the single-company linear model ('pipeline model'), do not no longer describe how innovation occurs today. An alternative is the...
Information and communication technology (ICT) is increasingly being used in the home environment, making it a very important and interesting research topic for communication scientists. Future developments will influence the way and the extent to which ICT will be used in the home environment and therefore the way people look for information, comm...