Patrick Criqui

French National Centre for Scientific Research | CNRS · Institut des Sciences humaines et sociales (INSHS)

Previous works proposed a tool coupling models of a prospective outlook on long-term energy systems and a transmission grid investment and dispatch, focusing on the representation of the European transmission grid and its development on the horizon 2050–2100. In this paper, this prospective tool is further improved with the capacity to compute volt...

This paper presents a new power sector module, called EUTGRID, which is coupled with the long-term energy model POLES to deliver a suitable framework for considering grid aspects in energy modelling allowing for more distinct analysis of energy technology development and energy policy. It includes a mechanism of investment in transmission grids bas...

Carbon pricing is considered by most economists as a central dimension to any climate policy. It is assumed to bring simple, transparent, and cost-effective means to change investment and consumption behaviors. The most straightforward method is carbon taxation, but its implementation is more complex. This study provides a comparative analysis of c...

The Paris Agreement introduces long-term strategies as an instrument to inform progressively more ambitious emission reduction objectives, while holding development goals paramount in the context of national circumstances. In the lead up to the twenty-first Conference of the Parties, the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project developed mid-century l...

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), submitted by Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change before and after the 21st Conference of Parties, summarize domestic objectives for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions for the 2025-2030 time horizon. In the absence, for now, of detailed guidelines for the format of N...

The European Union (EU) is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels by 80%–95% in 2050 compared to 1990 levels. Various approaches have been developed to secure and evaluate the progress made towards this objective. To gain insights into how EU Member States are aligning to this collective long-term objective, we systematicall...

Decarbonisation of energy systems requires deep structural change. The purpose of this research was to analyse the rates of change taking place in the energy systems of the European Union (EU), in the light of the EU's climate change mitigation objectives. Trends on indicators such as energy intensity and carbon intensity of energy were compared wi...

This paper analyzes the renewal of the intellectual constructs that have contributed to the Paris Agreement. In this paradigm shift, the concept of Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) has created the space in which Nation-states have been free to engage in the process while setting their own goals for the medium term. A second key co...

Prenant le contrepied de l’approche top-down qui prévalait jusqu’à la conférence de Copenhague, l’Accord de Paris est construit sur une approche bottom-up dans laquelle les Etats sont libres de fixer leurs propres objectifs de décarbonation au travers de contributions intentionnelles déterminées nationalement (CIDN). Ce texte présente pour les 13 p...

The ongoing transformation of the world’s energy systems requires an international monitoring to evaluate the transformation processes and to identify transferable leading practice policies. For this purpose, an independent scientific expert commission should be established for the G20. By actively involving political decision-makers in the discuss...

Dans le cadre d'une réflexion sur les trajectoires futures du système électrique français, cette étude propose un éclairage sur les enjeux structurels à moyen terme. La première partie analyse les principaux facteurs d’incertitudes qui conditionnent la transition du secteur électrique français sur les plans technique, économique et politique. La se...

IMeg Argyriou, Chris Bataille, Michel Colombier, Patrick Criqu, Amandine Denis, Sandrine, David Sawyer, Henri Waisman The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) is a collab- orative global research initiative seeking to understand how individual countries can transition to a low-carbon economy con- sistent with ambitious climate targets. In...

In order to assess the adequacy of the EU and its Member States policies with the 2030 and 2050 decarbonisation objectives, this study goes beyond the aggregate GHG emissions or energy use figures and analyse the underlying drivers of emission changes, following a sectoral approach (power generation, buildings, industry, and transport). Historical...

At each Conference of Parties (COP), scientists hand over the climate change problem to diplomats and policymakers. A COP also offers scientists a chance to take stock of their research, confront emerging policy questions, identify research gaps, and update their research agendas. We, as an interdisciplinary group of academic experts who have been...

Contrary to ‘static’ pathways that are defined once for all, this article deals with the need for policy makers to adopt a dynamic adaptive policy pathway for managing decarbonization over the period of implementation. When choosing a pathway as the most desirable option, it is important to keep in mind that each decarbonization option relies on th...

The COP21 reconfirmed the indispensable role of the reduction of CO2 emissions to limit global warming. To this end, new technologies can be a determinant lever. A study undertaken by ANCRE (a French government backed energy think tank and modulator) stresses the importance of massive investment in these technologies to succeed in a deep decarbonat...

Nuclear energy’s low variable cost makes it a base load technology, but variable renewable production has a higher priority on the grid, having a zero marginal cost. Therefore, variable renewable production will reduce load factors of dispatchable technologies. If not able to follow residual load, some more flexible technologies could be preferred...

In this paper, we demonstrate the role of electricity storage for the integration of high shares of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) in the long-term evolution of the power system. For this, a new electricity module is developed in POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). It now takes into account the impacts of VRES on the...

Contrary to ‘static’ pathways that are defined once for all, this article deals with the need for policy makers to adopt a dynamic adaptive policy pathway for managing decarbonization over the period of implementation. When choosing a pathway as the most desirable option, it is important to keep in mind that each decarbonization option relies on th...

Contrary to ‘static’ pathways that are defined once for all, this article deals with the need for policy makers to adopt a dynamic adaptive policy pathway for managing decarbonization over the period of implementation. When choosing a pathway as the most desirable option, it is important to keep in mind that each decarbonization option relies on th...

In late 2015 France will be hosting and chairing the 21st Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, or COP21. The aim of this conference is to reach a global agreement based on national contributions (INDC)3 and on an investment framework to tackle climate change and to boost the transiti...

A dynamic simulation of coupled supply and demand of energy, resources and nuclear reactors is done with the global model Prospective Outlook for Long Term Energy Supply (POLES) over this century. In this model, both electricity demand and uranium supply are not independent of the cost of all base load electricity suppliers. Uranium consuming Therm...

The book summarizes findings of research of 16 country teams on deep decarbonization pathways, aiming at limiting the global warming by 2 degrees Celsius.

This supplementary material contains case studies presenting specific aspects of the DDPP country pathways. They illustrate and complement the cross-cutting analysis included in the 2015 DDPP synthesis report

The paper presents a model-based approach describing the impacts of climate change on the European energy system. Existing analyses only estimate a limited range of climate impacts over a limited geographical area. Using the POLES model and the results from several climate models, the present paper quantifies the main impacts of climate change on t...

Industry: Decarbonization of the economy and international competition Like governments, corporations have understood the need for reducing the emission of greenhouse gas. They have solutions that depend on public policies for deployment on a large scale. Under agreements adopted internationally, companies might benefit from the energy transition o...

Le rapport DDPP France évalue deux trajectoires contrastées de décarbonisation à l’horizon 2050 pour la France, l’une misant sur une baisse ambitieuse de la demande d’énergie, l’autre sur une forte décarbonisation de l’énergie.La première trajectoire s’articule autour d’une réduction de 50% de la consommation d’énergie finale en 2050, objectif phar...

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The exploration of future energy system trajectories needs to be based on long-term scenarios, which in turn requires using long-term modelling tools. Introducing a strong decarbonisation constraint, for instance, profoundly modifies the power sector, which is impacted by increasing shares of variable renewable energy sources. Long-term modelling t...

The many lively debates that preceded - and still fuel-discussion of the "Energy Transition and Green Growth" bill attest to the importance of that law for many French citizens and economic actors. Without going back over the debate on the feasibility or realism of the law's objectives, to which Futuribles contributed through its website in late Se...

Global warming may be one of the greatest threats facing the human civilization. It is now widely shared that it is necessary to reduce quickly and significantly the greenhouse gas emissions to avoid uncontrolled and irreversible evolutions of climate. It has now become urgent to develop a legal instrument addressing the post-2020 period and to ach...

Chapitre de : Pathways to deep decarbonization: interim 2014 report. Paris : Sustainable Development Solutions Network ; Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations

This report stated the key concepts of decarbonization of 15 leading economies aiming at limiting global warming by 2 degrees Celsius. The report was presented to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in support of the UN Climate Leaders’ Summit in New York on September 23, 2014 and the UNFCCC COP21, where the historic Paris Climate Agreement was signed...

Les organismes publics de recherche de l'Alliance nationale de coordination de la recherche pour l'énergie présentent leurs scénarios pour assurer la transition énergétique de la France. Comment réduire de 50 % la part du nucléaire dans la production électrique en 2025 et comment diviser par 4 les émissions de GES à l'horizon 2050 ? Pour l'ANCRE, d...

This paper explores various dimensions of the learning process for low-carbon technologies under different mitigation scenarios. It uses the POLES model, which addresses learning as an endogenous phenomenon with learning curves, and a set of scenarios developed as part of the AMPERE project. It represents an analytical effort to understand the lear...

Emissions of gases and particles from the combustion of fossil fuels and biofuels in Africa are expected to increase significantly in the near future due to the rapid growth of African cities and megacities. There is currently no regional emissions inventory that provides estimates of anthropogenic combustion for the African continent. This work pr...

One of the most important outcomes during the last Conferences of the Parties was the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, which can be seen not only as a window of opportunity, but as a necessity to act. Our concern in the present paper is with the identification of an appropriate international climate-policy architecture in order to foster climat...

Conséquence des rapports du GIEC sur l'évolution du climat, la transition énergétique est devenue un objectif prioritaire mondial, objectif auquel le gouvernement français a donné un élan particulier en 2013 en lançant un grand débat public. L'Alliance Nationale de Coordination de la Recherche pour l'Energie (ANCRE 1) a souhaité apporter une contri...

The AMPERE project aims to improve our understanding of possible pathways toward medium- and long-term climate targets at the global and European levels. AMPERE is an EU-funded international effort that stands for Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of Mitigation Cost Estimates. The project assesses key...

This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledg...

Fossil fuel and biofuel emissions of particles in Africa are expected to significantly increase in the near future, particularly due to rapid growth of African cities. Air quality degradation is then expected with important consequences on population health and climatic/radiative impact. In this work, we show the central role of black carbon to org...

In the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident, countries like Germany and Japan have planned a phase-out of nuclear generation. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology has yet to become a commercially viable technology with little prospect of doing so without strong climate policy to spur development. The possibility of using renewable power ge...

Actes du colloque "chimie et enjeux énergétiques", Paris, 14 novembre 2012

The purpose of this chapter is thus to review the concept of peak oil, critique its main propositions and assess the arguments advanced by oil optimists against those of peak oil. The paper begins with a presentation of the Hubbert peak theory and of some recent applications of the theory at the global level. Then it introduces a revised conceptual...

Les trajectoires en cours pour l'énergie et les émissions de gaz à effet de serre engagent le monde vers une situation dangereuse en termes de changement global à l'horizon 2050, avec une perspective probable de hausse des températures comprise entre 3 et 4°C d'ici la fin du siècle. Malgré les efforts déployés depuis la conférence de Rio en 1992 po...

In an article published in these pages in 2011 (no. 373), Patrick Criqui presented a series of scenarios on possible energy and climate trends, taking note of the agreement on climate change signed in late 2009 at the Copenhagen Conference. He pointed out that a paradigm shift was on the cards, which would mean less use of the top-down approach-wit...

Le système énergétique mondial se trouve confronté à deux contraintes simultanées : l'épuisement des réserves de pétrole, qui risque d'entraîner un nouveau choc pétrolier, et la protection du climat, qui oblige à diminuer les émissions de gaz à effet de serre. Les conséquences réciproques de ces deux phénomènes doivent être soigneusement analysées....

L'avenir du climat planétaire à long terme se jouera au cours des prochaines décennies. Alors que le développement économique s'est fondé depuis deux siècles sur le développement massif des énergies fossiles, la question majeure pour l'énergie au XXIe siècle est certainement celle de la transition vers des systèmes énergétiques bas carbone. Cela su...

Between now and 2050, humanity must face a double problem: the growing scarcity of oil and the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. These “bathtub problems” cannot be considered independently as hydrocarbon scarcity paves the way to coal, while climate policies open the path to low carbon societies. Smart energy policies and associat...

L'ouvrage propose une réflexion sur un sujet sociétal majeur. Car l'énergie nucléaire ne soulève pas que des questions énergétiques ou économiques, elle pose des problèmes sociaux, de sécurité publique, politiques, voire idéologiques.

Proc. on CD Rom paper 11260

Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 °C increase by 2100. For the...

Les scénarios pour le développement énergétique à long terme et les émissions de gaz à effet de serre associées ont acquis un rôle particulier par rapport aux autres familles de scénarios. Dans le cas de l'énergie et du climat il s'agit de fournir une information essentielle pour la négociation internationale, dans l'identification des objectifs gl...

Cet article décrit une méthodologie originale pour définir et hiérarchiser les actions nécessaires à l'atteinte des objectifs locaux de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre, à partir de critères technico-économiques. Il montre comment l'utilisation d'un modèle intégré transport-urbanisme, la description de scénarios ainsi qu'une méthode...

Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 degrees C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 degrees C increase by...

In the last decade, a few papers have analysed the consequences of achieving the greenhouse gas concentration levels necessary to maintain global temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Most models and scenarios assume that future trends in global GDP will be similar to the growth experienced in the past century, w...

In this research, we provide an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European energy sector, through a model based analysis of scenarios produced with the POLES model. The scenarios describe the consequences of different degrees of GHG emission constraint, at world level, but also for a case where Europe adopts an ambitious climate policy,...

A regional fossil fuel and biofuel emission inventory for particulates has been developed for Africa at a resolution of 0.25° x 0.25° for the year 2005. The original database of Junker and Liousse (2008) was used after modification for updated regional fuel consumption and emission factors. Consumption data were corrected after direct inquiries con...

This study gives a synthesis of a model comparison assessing the technological feasibility and economic consequences of achieving greenhouse gas concentration targets that are sufficiently low to keep the increase in global mean temperature below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. All five global energy-environment-economy models show t...

This paper presents a long-term assessment of the worldwide energy system in scenarios ranging from a baseline to a very low greenhouse gas stabilization, using the energy model POLES. Despite improved energy efficiency, the baseline scenario would lead to a doubling in energy consumption by 2050 increasing further thereafter. CO2 emissions would c...