Patricia Gober

• Doctor of Philosophy
• Professor Emeritus at Arizona State University

The notion of convergent and transdisciplinary integration, which is about braiding together different knowledge systems, is becoming the mantra of numerous initiatives aimed at tackling pressing water challenges. Yet, the transition from rhetoric to actual implementation is impeded by incongruence in semantics, methodologies, and discourse among d...

The notion of convergent and transdisciplinary integration, which is about braiding together different knowledge systems, is becoming the mantra of numerous initiatives aimed at tackling pressing water challenges. Yet, the transition from rhetoric to actual implementation is impeded by incongruence in semantics, methodologies, and discourse among d...

Predicting future water demands of societies is a major challenge because it involves a holistic understanding of possible changes within socio-hydrological systems. Although recent research has made efforts to translate social dimensions into the analysis of hydrological systems, few studies have involved citizens’ participation in the water footp...

We convened a workshop to enable scientists who study water systems from both social science and physical science perspectives to develop a shared language. This shared language is necessary to bridge a divide between these disciplines' different conceptual frameworks. As a result of this workshop, we argue that we should view socio-hydrological sy...

The concept of gallons per capita per day (GPCD) expresses the relationship between population and water. US trends in GPCD between 1950 and 2015 reflect changing technology, policy, and lifestyles. Water managers use GPCD for long-term infrastructure planning and water resource management. GPCD grew from 1950 to 1980, remained steady from 1980 to...

Environmental modelling is transitioning from the traditional paradigm that focuses on the model and its quantitative performance to a more holistic paradigm that recognises successful model-based outcomes are closely tied to undertaking modelling as a social process, not just as a technical procedure. This paper redefines evaluation as a multi-dim...

The effectiveness of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) modeling hinges on the quality of practices employed through the process, starting from early problem definition all the way through to using the model in a way that serves its intended purpose. The adoption and implementation of effective modeling practices need to be guided by a pra...

There is increasing recognition of the need to incorporate the complex and dynamic interactions between society and water in studies of water resource systems. The study of human-water dynamics requires the involvement of researchers from different disciplines, including hydrology and social science. This paper tracks recent trends in socio-hydrolo...

There is growing concern that traditional assessments focused on water resources alone ignore vulnerabilities related to water’s connections to food, energy, and land. The international trade in food includes embedded water, sometimes with unintended consequences. Water problems may appear in unexpected forms because of these interdependencies. The...

It is too easy to blame today’s water problems on climate change. While it is clear that climate impacts are having real consequences on water systems, it is less clear the problems described in earlier chapters would not have occurred without climate change. Global water systems are under increasing stress from the failure to adapt to changing die...

Cities around the world are engaged in efforts to adapt to climate change and improve resilience through uncertainty planning and precautionary action. Water-related concerns include sea level rise, storm surges, effects of flooding on infrastructure, and the availability of water resources. Cities have emerged as the global focus for climate adapt...

Uncertainties about climate and nexus issues stimulate new thinking about water planning. Building resilience involves the capacity to look ahead, ask “what if” questions about the future, remain flexible in the face of uncertainty, and seek out policies that provide good outcomes no matter what the future climate brings in terms of water impacts....

Climate change and its uncertain impacts on water systems has raised awareness of the limitations of current planning and management practices in the water sector. Global climate modeling and regional impact assessment are plagued with severe uncertainties stemming from natural variability, uncertain assumptions about future emissions, differences...

Today’s world faces existential threats to water systems in the form of intensifying floods and droughts, increasing risks to global supply chains, chronic shortages, hidden vulnerabilities in the water-energy-land-food (WELF) nexus, increasing pollution, and degrading aquatic ecosystems. These threats occur in the context of unsustainable use, env...

While climate change presents formidable challenges to global water systems, water problems are primarily the result of the failure of societal institutions to manage the resource and meet the needs of current residents, the economy and environment, and future generations. Single-minded focus on climate change and hydrological response dominates wa...

Resilient water systems function at the triple junction of scientific discovery, decision support, and public engagement. New scientific knowledge about non-stationary environmental systems (including scientific and societal uncertainties) informs management decision-making, warns of the need to change course, and supports exploration of future con...

The rational optimization method of allocating water to competing users assumes that water decisions should be rational, efficient, and based on scientific evidence. That may or may not be true. Underlying values about water reflect beliefs about economic efficiency, social equity and environmental protection, the need to provide for future generat...

This book describes the existential threats facing the global water systems from population growth and economic development, unsustainable use, environmental change, and weak and fragmented governance. It argues that ‘business-as-usual’ water science and management cannot solve global water problems because today’s water systems are increasingly co...

Socio-hydrology brings an interest in human values, markets, social organizations and public policy to the traditional emphasis of water science on climate, hydrology, toxicology and ecology. It also conveys a decision focus in the form of decision support tools, stakeholder engagement and new knowledge about the science-policy interface. This pape...

This paper uses ‘Medieval’ drought conditions from the 12th Century to simulate the implications of severe and persistent drought for the future of water resource management in metropolitan Phoenix, one of the largest and fastest growing urban areas in the southwestern USA. WaterSim 5, an anticipatory water policy and planning model, was used to ex...

Long-term water resource management requires the capacity to evaluate alternative management options in the face of various sources of uncertainty in the future conditions of water resource systems. This study proposes a generic framework for determining the relative change in probabilistic characteristics of system performance as a result of chang...

Recent efforts to influence the efficiency and timing of urban indoor water use through education, technology, conservation, reuse, economic incentives, and regulatory mechanisms have enabled many North American cities to accommodate population growth and buffer impacts of drought. It is unlikely that this approach will be equally successful into t...

Complexities and uncertainties surrounding urbanization and climate change complicate water resource sustainability. Although research has examined various aspects of complex water systems, including uncertainties, relatively few attempts have been made to synthesize research findings in particular contexts. We fill this gap by examining the comple...

A warming climate and land management intensification have altered water supply characteristics in many regions of the world. Incorporation of water supply uncertainties into long-term water resources planning and management is, therefore, significant from both a scientific and societal perspective. This study proposes a set of analyses for integra...

The freshwater environment is facing unprecedented global pressures. Unsustainable use of surface and groundwater is ubiquitous. Gross pollution is seen in developing economies, nutrient pollution is a global threat to aquatic ecosystems, and flood damage is increasing. Droughts have severe local consequences, but effects on food can be global. The...

Abstract Water is essential for human development and the environment; however, its security is challenged by factors such as competing uses, over extraction, and divergent perspectives. The focus of this paper is to better understand how different stakeholders define water security in the South Saskatchewan River Basin, a large (121,095 km2) tran...

Socio-hydrology views human activities as endogenous to water system dynamics; it is the interaction between human and biophysical processes that threatens the viability of current water systems through positive feedbacks and unintended consequences. Di Baldassarre et al. implement socio-hydrology as a flood risk problem using the concept of social...

Vulnerability mapping based on vulnerability indices is a pragmatic approach for highlighting the areas in a city where people are at the greatest risk of harm from heat, but the manner in which vulnerability is conceptualized influences the results. We tested a generic national heat-vulnerability index, based on a 10-variable indicator framework,...

Critical to effective urban climate adaptation is a clearer understanding of the sensitivities of resource demand to changing climatic conditions and land cover situations. We used Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) stochastic procedures to estimate temperature and precipitation at the very small scale of urban Census Block Groups (CBGs) in Phoenix, Ar...

Climate change challenges water managers to make decisions about future infrastructure and the adequacy of current supplies before the uncertainties of the climate models and their hydrological impacts are resolved. Water managers thus face the classic problem of decision making under uncertainty (DMUU). The aim of DMUU is not to be paralyzed by un...

Using a system dynamics approach, an integrated water resources system model is developed for scenario analysis of the Saskatchewan portion of the transboundary Saskatchewan River Basin in western Canada. The water resources component is constructed by emulating an existing Water Resources Management Model. Enhancements include an irrigation sub-mo...

Central to the Smart Growth movement is that compact development reduces vehicle miles traveled, carbon emissions, and water use. Empirical efforts to evaluate compact development have examined residential densities but have not distinguished decreasing lot sizes from multifamily apartments as mechanisms for compact development. Efforts to link des...

Socio-hydrology brings an interest in human values, markets, social organizations and public policy to the traditional emphasis of water science on climate, hydrology, toxicology and ecology. It also conveys a decision focus in the form of decision support tools, stakeholder engagement and new knowledge about the science–policy interface. This pape...

Environmental policy discussion is replete with references to water security, food security, ecosystem health, community resilience, sustainable development, and sustainable urbanism. These terms are, by their very nature, ambiguous and difficult to define; they allow room, however, for a variety of actors to conceptualize water, food, ecological,...

The connection between scientific knowledge and environmental policy is enhanced through boundary organizations and objects that are perceived to be credible, salient, and legitimate. In this study, water resource decision-makers evaluated the knowledge embedded in WaterSim, an interactive simulation model of water supply and demand presented in an...

In this paper, we discuss the multiple dimensions of water security and define a set of thematic challenges for science, policy and governance, based around cross-scale dynamics, complexity and uncertainty. A case study of the Saskatchewan River basin (SRB) in western Canada is presented, which encompasses many of the water-security challenges face...

The coupled processes of climate change and urbanization pose challenges for water resource management in cities worldwide. Comparing the vulnerabilities of water systems in Phoenix, Arizona and Portland, Oregon, this paper examines (1) exposures to these stressors, (2) sensitivities to the associated impacts, and (3) adaptive capacities for respon...

This study addresses a classic sustainability challenge-the tradeoff between water conservation and temperature amelioration in rapidly growing cities, using Phoenix, Arizona and Portland, Oregon as case studies. An urban energy balance model-LUMPS (Local-Scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme)-is used to represent the tradeoff between...

Discriminant analysis was used to investigate the empirical underpinnings of the labels, "Sunbelt" and "Frostbelt." Nine study variables were chosen to represent structural, economic, and population characteristics in 158 SMSAs with 1980 populations over 200,000. The results show that SMSAs in the Sunbelt have lower densities; they house larger min...

While there is popular perception that Canada is a water-rich country, the Saskatchewan River Basin (SRB) in Western Canada exemplifies the multiple threats to water security seen worldwide. It is Canada's major food-producing region and home to globally-significant natural resource development. The SRB faces current water challenges stemming from:...

Increasing evidence demonstrates that unsustainable land use practices result in human-induced drought conditions, and inadequate water supplies constrain land development in growing cities. Nonetheless, organizational barriers impair coordinated land and water management. Land planning is strongly influenced by political realities and interest gro...

Changes in land use and land cover alter the local energy balance and contribute to distinct urban climates. This paper presents a local-scale above-canopy study of intra-urban land cover mixes in two cities to analyse the relative effects of surface morphology and local climate on the surface energy balance (SEB). The study is conducted for urban...

Climate change is likely to result in increased aridity, lower runoff, and declining water supplies for the cities of the Southwestern United States, including Phoenix. The situation in Phoenix is particularly complicated by the large number of water providers, each with its own supply portfolio, demand conditions, and conservation strategies. This...

This study assessed the spatial distribution of vulnerability to extreme heat in 1990 and 2000 within metropolitan Phoenix based on an index of seven equally weighted measures of physical exposure and adaptive capacity. These measures were derived from spatially interpolated climate, normalized differential vegetation index, and U.S. Census data. F...

Effects of human-induced change on the land surface and the functioning of water systems are ubiquitous. There is a basic need to understand these human processes and to represent them appropriately in hydrological models. Some land use effects, such as urbanisation, are well understood, but not readily quantifiable at catchment scale. Agricultural...

In using traditional digital classification algorithms, a researcher typically encounters serious issues in identifying urban land cover classes employing high resolution data. A normal approach is to use spectral information alone and ignore spatial information and a group of pixels that need to be considered together as an object. We used QuickBi...

WaterSim, a simulation model, was built and implemented to investigate how alternative climate conditions, rates of population growth, and policy choices interact to affect future water supply and demand conditions in Phoenix, AZ. WaterSim is a hierarchical model that represents supply from surface and groundwater sources and demand from residentia...

We present an ongoing project to co-produce science and policy called Collaborative Planning for Climate Change: An Integrated Approach to Water-Planning, Climate Downscaling, and Robust Decision-Making. The project responds to motivations related to dealing with sustainability challenges in research and practice: (a) state and municipal water mana...

The Decision Center for a Desert City has a new provider-level water planning and management model termed WaterSim 4.0. This model simulates the spatial and temporal dynamics of current and projected future water supply and demand as influenced by population demographics, climatic uncertainty, and ground water availability for 33 water providers in...

We built and implemented WaterSim, a simulation model, to investigate how alternative climate conditions, rates of population growth, and policy choices interact to affect future water supply and demand conditions in Phoenix, Arizona USA. This paper: (1) outlines the objectives and structure of WaterSim; (2) demonstrates the application of the mode...

Global warming has profound consequences for the climate of the American Southwest and its overallocated water supplies. This paper uses simulation modeling and the principles of decision making under uncertainty to translate climate information into tools for vulnerability assessment and urban climate adaptation. A dynamic simulation model, WaterS...

While previous studies have shown that urban heat islands (UHI) tend to increase residential water use, they have not yet analyzed the feedbacks among vegetation intensity, diurnal temperature variation, water use, and characteristics of the built environment. This study examines these feedback relationships with the help of a path model applied to...

Arid regions and their cities are vulnerable to future water scarcity because climate change threatens to reduce supply and rapid growth increases demand. The study of water sustainability in these regions and cities transcends concern about climate change and growth, however, and includes the dynamics of water–energy relationships, tradeoffs invol...

The uncertainties associated with global climate models pose substantial hurdles for urban water planning. Despite growing consensus among climatologists that the American Southwest is headed for a warmer and drier future, water planners in metropolitan Phoenix and elsewhere are reluctant to consider long-term climate change as a significant factor...

Problem -- The prospect that urban heat island (UHI) effects and climate change may increase urban temperatures is a problem for cities that actively promote urban redevelopment and higher densities. One possible UHI mitigation strategy is to plant more trees and other irrigated vege- tation to prevent daytime heat storage and facilitate nighttime...

The Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC) was founded in 2004 to develop scientifically-credible support tools to improve water management decisions in the face of growing climatic uncertainty and rapid urbanization in metropolitan Phoenix. At the center of DCDC's effort is WaterSim, a model that integrates information about water supply from gr...

Diverging perspectives toward environmental problems, their causes, and solutions can exacerbate controversy in participatory decision making. Past research has examined the lay–expert divide in perceptions about diverse risks, but relatively few studies have examined multidimensional perspectives on water scarcity across expert groups with differe...

We set forth an argument for the integration of social science research with natural science and engineering research in major research infrastructure investments addressing water science. A program of integrated observation of water resources offers great opportunities to address several environmental “grand challenges” identified by the National...

Background/Question/Methods We developed a provider-based water management and planning model for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area of Central Arizona. Adapted from WaterSim 2.0, the model combines a systems dynamics model (PowerSim),Microsoft C-Sharp, and the PowerSimStudio Software Development Kit (SDK) to simulate the spatial and temporal dynamics...

Managing environmental and social systems in the face of uncertainty requires the best possible forecasts of future conditions. We use space–time variability in historical data and projections of future population density to improve forecasting of residential water demand in the City of Phoenix, Arizona. Our future water estimates are derived using...

Making decisions about water allocation in arid environments is inherently contentious.The uncertainty of climate change and projections of a warmer and drier future for arid regions raises the stakes further.When mixed with politically-charged questions about sovereignty, the locations of international borders, agricultural production and populati...

Water remains an essential ingredient for the rapid population growth taking place in metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona. Depending upon the municipality, between 60 and 75% of residential water is used outdoors to maintain nonnative, water-intensive landscapes and swimming pools. Residential water use in Phoenix should be especially sensitive to meteor...

This paper is the first in a series of three papers dealing with the current and future labor market for geographers. It is based on a report prepared by the Association of American Geographers' (AAG) Employment Forecasting Committee to the National Research Council's (NRC) Rediscovering Geography Committee. This report provides a data-based analys...

This paper, the second in a series dealing with employment trends in geography, focuses on current labor market conditions. Two windows on the current labor market are (1) the employment experiences of recent graduates of geography programs and (2) the activities of the Association of American Geographers Convention Placement Services (CoPS). The f...

The pressing problem of Phoenix's urban heat island (UHI) has spawned numerous academic studies of the spatiotemporal nature of this physical process and its relationship to energy and water use, urban design features, and ecosystem processes. Critical to these studies is an accurate representation of the UHI over space and time. This article is co...

We developed a water budget runoff model for the Salt and Verde River basins of central Arizona and used the outputs of 6 global climate models (GCMs) to estimate runoff in the future under assorted emissions scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We used a statistical downscaling routine to refine the GCM outp...

Rapid population growth in the face of an uncertain climate future challenges the desert city of Phoenix, Arizona to consume water more prudently. To better understand the demand side of this important issue, we identified the determinants of water consumption for detached single-family residential units using ordinary least squares regression (OLS...

One goal of the smart growth movement is a more compact urban form, intended to reduce energy use and the cost of moving materials, products, and people. The benefits of compactness are compromised, however, if higher densities and more intense land use create urban heat islands, which increase water and energy use. This study examines the effects...

In this investigation, how annual water use in the city of Phoenix, Arizona, was influenced by climatic variables between 1980 and 2004 is examined. Simple correlation coefficients between water use and annual mean temperature, total annual precipitation, and annual mean Palmer hydrological drought index values are +0.55, -0.69, -0.52, respectively...

We investigated the spatial and temporal variation in June mean minimum temperatures for weather stations in and around metropolitan Phoenix, USA, for the period 1990 to 2004. Temperature was related to synoptic conditions, location in urban development zones (DZs), and the pace of housing construction in a I km buffer around fixed-point temperatur...

Factor analysis is used to examine the movement patterns of nonpermanent residents, persons who were living somewhere other than their usual residence on the April 1, 1980 census day. Movement from usual to census residences converges on the Sunbelt states of Florida, Arizona, California, Texas and Louisiana. Movement in the other direction is more...

Increased divorce, declining fertility and mortality, and changing lifestyles have resulted in a consistent decline in average household size in U.S. urban areas. The purpose of this paper is to show that decreases in household size between 1970 and 1975 were spatially variable in metropolitan Phoenix and that this affected the overall pattern of r...

One of the fastest growing cities in the US, the desert city of Phoenix has appropriated significant surface and ground-water resources from regions near and far to support not only basic needs but also various cultural amenities, such as golf courses. Rapid expansion of the metropolitan area has resulted in loss of native ecosystems including dese...

The American scientific community currently is being challenged to provide the basic and applied research that is necessary for the nation to make better decisions related to the environment. Concern with the environment has led to the demand for a more synthetic perspective, one that identifies linkages among the cultural, social, political, econo...

Geographic issues loom large as the American population begins the new millennium. Regional fertility differentials are growing, social networks focus new immigrants on a small number of port-of-entry metropolitan areas and states, highly channelized migration streams redistribute population in response to economic and social restructuring, and a h...

Geography in America at the Dawn of the 21st Century surveys American geographers’ current research in their specialty areas and tracks trends and innovations in the many subfields of geography. As such, it is both a ‘state of the discipline’ assessment and a topical reference. It includes an introduction by the editors and 47 chapters, each on a s...

Migration is a gendered phenomenon, best understood as a series of relationships between socioeconomic factors and gender. Gender differences in migration efficiencies are investigated using the 1990 Census data in China. Results indicate that, although male migration rates are higher, female migration is more efficient in the sense that it contrib...

A revealing indicator of social fragmentation in metropolitan America is the proliferation of common interest developments (CIDs), communities defined by restrictive covenants, deed restrictions, community associations, and citizens groups that wield substantial political influence and power. In Phoenix, large-scale retirement communities represent...

The rise in spatial analysis, numerical methods, and theory testing of the 1960s thrust the field of urban geography into a period of reductionist research, one that assumed the urban system was no more than the sum of its parts and that these parts could be studied without reference to the system itself. Amid this reductionist approach to urban in...

Annual changes in the amount and location of residential fringe development in metropolitan Phoenix are tracked from 1990 to 1998 using local records of housing completions. New development covered a wide geographic area in 1990 but became more geographically concentrated with time. Metropolitan Phoenix is organized into five belts: (1) an outer ru...

The purpose of this article is to describe determinants and spatial patterns of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in Phoenix, Arizona. Specifically, we use geographic information systems (GIS) and regression-based analyses to identify the human and biological factors that contribute to spatial and temporal variations in near-surface (2-meter height)...

Few studies have examined concentrations of near-surface CO2 in urban areas and none have considered the effect of vegetation type. To investigate this, we monitored near-surface (2m) CO2 concentrations and meteorological variables over four contrasting sites in the metropolitan area of Phoenix, AZ, from 15 March to 3 April 2000. These four sites r...

This article describes the implementation of a geographically focused job linkage policy as part of the City of Phoenix's federally-funded Enterprise Community. Job linkage policy faces formidable obstacles in Phoenix because it runs counter to prevailing transportation, employment, and demographic forces. Efforts to improve the employment outcomes...

Current urban policy stresses the creation of a sustainable economic base in the inner city. It is assumed that increasing the number and range of jobs in the inner city will result in employment opportunities for disadvantaged local residents. This paper explores the linkage between inner-city employment and inner-city residence in Phoenix, Arizon...

The likelihood of having an abortion in the U.S.A. is strongly dependent upon where a woman lives. Abortion rates vary markedly from state to state, and these variations have been increasing, especially in recent years. Path analysis shows the causal structure of public demand and access variables that determined state abortion rates in 1991 and 19...

. Migration analysis is hindered by the lack of up-to-date migration data. This paper examines the feasibility of using information from the American Moving Conference (AMC), the trade organization of the moving industry, to develop timely estimates of gross in- and out-migration and net migration rates at the state level. When adjusted for the spa...