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Publications (83)
Incoming policies will cause the European Union to harvest more wood, shift one-fifth of cropland to bioenergy and outsource deforestation, analysis shows. Incoming policies will cause the European Union to harvest more wood, shift one-fifth of cropland to bioenergy and outsource deforestation, analysis shows. Credit: Gustavo Basso/NurPhoto via Get...
Can the world meet growing demand for food while sharply reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture – and without converting more forests into agriculture? In the World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, WRI set forth a challenging, global five-course menu of actions to do so. How should a country adapt this menu to its o...
Developing relevant decision-support tools for policymakers to support large-scale implementation of climate-smart agriculture in the Global South is challenging given the great diversity in biophysical, socio-technical, and organizational conditions. This article describes a pilot exercise inspired by the recommendation domain literature that aime...
Facing a growing and more affluent world population, changing climate and finite natural resources, world food systems will have to change in the future. The aim of the Agrimonde-Terra foresight study was to build global scenarios linking land use and food security, with special attention paid to overlooked aspects such as nutrition and health, in...
Can we feed the world without destroying it? The ‘World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future’ shows that it is possible – but there is no silver bullet. This final report focuses on technical opportunities and policies for cost-effective scenarios to meet food, land-use, and greenhouse gas emissions goals in 2050 in ways that can al...
In this Letter, the PANGAEA repository was referred to incorrectly in the ‘Code availability’ and ‘Data availability’ sections of Methods: the link should be 10.1594/PANGAEA.893761 instead of 10.1594/PANGAEA.877266. In addition, the sentence, “However, the more commonly used system 2 (75 kg ha−1 yr−1) generates roughly the same benefits as system 1...
By 2050, nearly 10 billion people will live on the planet. Can we produce enough food sustainably? The synthesis report of the World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future shows that it is possible – but there is no silver bullet. This report offers a five-course menu of solutions to ensure we can feed everyone without increasing emis...
CHAPTER 5
A CIRCULAR APPROACH TO AGRICULTURE, LAND USE AND THE
BIOECONOMY: AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESTORE SOIL FERTILITY AND
DECARBONISE THE ECONOMY ...................................................................
1 Introduction............................................................................................
2 Decarbonising European agri...
This paper argues that integrated assessment models (IAMs) are useful tools to build corridors of social costs of carbon (SCC) reflecting divergent worldviews. Instead of pursuing the elusive quest for the right SCC, IAMs could indeed be useful tools to rationalize the different beliefs on climate related parameters (or worldviews) in the climate d...
This paper presents a methodology to project irrigation and domestic water demands on a regional to global scale, in terms of both quantity and economic value. Projections are distributed at the water basin scale. Irrigation water demand is projected under climate change. It is simply computed as the difference between crop potential evapotranspira...
A protein scorecard to help consumers make more sustainable diet choices. It ranks foods from lowest (plant-based foods) to highest impact (beef, goat and lamb) based on GHG emissions from agricultural production and land use change
Installment 11 of Creating a Sustainable Food Future shows that for people who consume high amounts of meat and dairy, shifting to diets with a greater share of plant-based foods could significantly reduce agriculture’s pressure on the environment. It introduces a protein scorecard ranking foods from lowest (plant-based foods) to highest impact (be...
Installment 11 of Creating a Sustainable Food Future shows that for people who consume high amounts of meat and dairy, shifting to diets with a greater share of plant-based foods could significantly reduce agriculture’s pressure on the environment. It introduces a protein scorecard ranking foods from lowest (plant-based foods) to highest impact (be...
Global changes are expected to exacerbate water scarcity issues in the Mediterranean region in the next decades. In this work, we investigate the impacts of reservoirs operation rules based on an economic criterion. We examine whether can they help reduce the costs of water scarcity, and whether they become more relevant under future climatic and s...
Improvements in nitrogen use efficiency in crop production are critical for addressing the triple challenges of food security, environmental degradation and climate change. Such improvements are conditional not only on technological innovation, but also on socio-economic factors that are at present poorly understood. Here we examine historical patt...
This chapter presents a modeling framework for macroeconomic growth dynamics; it is motivated by recent attempts to formulate and study "integrated models" of the coupling between natural and socioeconomic phenomena. The challenge is to describe the interfaces between human activities and the functioning of the earth system. We examine the way in w...
The present work focuses on the demand side of future water scarcity assessment, and more precisely on domestic water demand. It proposes a quantitative projection of domestic water demand, combined with an original estimation of the economic benefit of water at large scale. The general method consists of building economic demand functions taking i...
Because of tensions on fossil energy and phosphorus markets, the rise in fertilizer prices observed during the last decades may continue in the future, putting into question production pathways relying heavily on crop intensification. To evaluate how, in this context, economic choices may alter crop yields, we first construct different fertilizer p...
This paper aims at providing a consistent framework to appraise alternative modeling choices that have driven the so-called “when flexibility” controversy since the early 1990s, dealing with the optimal timing of mitigation efforts and the social cost of carbon (SCC). The literature has emphasized the critical impact of modeling structures on the o...
Decision-makers have confirmed the long term objective of preventing a temperature increase greater than 2 °C. This paper aims at appraising by means of a cost-benefit analysis whether decision makers’ commitment to meet the 2 °C objective is credible or not. Within the framework of a cost-benefit type integrated assessment model, we consider that...
Competition between direct consumption of plant production and the feeding of livestock is key to global food availability. This is because livestock consume edible commodities that could be available for (food insecure) populations but also because it diverts arable land from food production. The share of total plant production redirected towards...
Globalization drives a process of diet convergence among developing and developed countries that challenges the predictions about future patterns of food consumption. To address this issue, the objective of this article is to map the range of the possible future diet changes and to explore their impact on agriculture using the Nexus Land-Use model....
This paper aims at providing a consistent framework to appraise alternative modeling choices that have driven the so-called “when flexibility” controversy since the early 1990s dealing with the optimal timing of mitigation efforts and the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC). The literature has emphasized the critical impact of modeling structures on the op...
The world’s agricultural system faces a great balancing act. To meet different human needs, by 2050 it must simultaneously produce far more food for a population expected to reach about 9.6 billion, provide economic opportunities for the hundreds of millions of rural poor who depend on agriculture for their livelihoods, and reduce environmental imp...
The central role of land-use change in the Earth System and its implications for food security, biodiversity and climate has spurred the development of global models that combine economical and agro-ecological drivers and constraints. With such a development of integrated approaches, evaluating the performance of global models of landuse against ob...
In this chapter we present the results of the impact assessment on freshwater bodies in the Mediterranean region. Starting from the characterization of the general features of Mediterranean hydrology, main focus is given on large river basins discharging into the Mediterranean sea as well as to small and medium scale catchments representing almost...
We apply the advanced spectral method of multivariate singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA) to U.S. macroeconomic data for a 52-year interval (1954– 2005). The data set includes nine indicators and we study the presence and characteristics of oscillatory behavior. We show that M-SSA provides a robust way to identify oscillatory modes in a set of numer...
This paper proposes a methodology to project the possible evolution of
river flood damages due to climate change, and applies it to mainland
France. Its main contributions are (i) to demonstrate a methodology to
investigate the full causal chain from global climate change to local
economic flood losses; (ii) to show that future flood losses may cha...
This paper presents a modeling framework for macroeconomic growth dynamics; it is motivated by recent attempts to formulate and study 'integrated models' of the coupling between natural and socio-economic phenomena. The challenge is to describe the interfaces between human activities and the functioning of the earth system. We examine the way that...
Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use version 1.0 which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms within agricultural land...
Motivated by the conclusions from various modelling studies, modifications to the bioenergy sector regulations are under way in Europe and in the USA to account for emissions from indirect land-use change (ILUC). Despite their influence on the policy-making, evaluations of the capacity of numerical models to estimate ILUC are sparse. To address thi...
The Stern/Nordhaus controversy has polarized the widely disparate beliefs about what to do in order to tackle the climate challenge. To explain differences in results and policy recommendations, comments following the publication of the Stern Review have mainly focused on the role played by the discount rate. A closer look at the actual drivers of...
Climate models project large changes in rainfall, but disagree on their magnitude and sign. The consequences of this uncertainty on optimal dam dimensioning is assessed for a small mountainous catchment in Greece. Optimal dam design is estimated using a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) based on trends in seasonal temperature and precipitations from 19 I...
Despite growing scientific evidence that passing a 2°C temperature increase may trigger tipping points in climate dynamics, most Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) based on Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) with smooth quadratic damage functions are unable to account for the possibility of strong increase in climate damage. Our IAM RESPONSE makes it poss...
Given disparate beliefs about economic growth, technical change and damage caused by climate change, this paper starts with the seeming impossibility of determining a unique time profile of the social costs of carbon as a benchmark for climate negotiations and for infrastructure decisions that need to be made now in the absence of an inclusive inte...
We apply the advanced time-and-frequency-domain method of singular spectrum analysis to study business cycle dynamics in a set of nine U.S. macroeconomic indicators. This method provides a robust way to identify and reconstruct shared oscillations, whether intermittent or modulated. We address the problem of spurious cycles generated by the use of...
This paper offers a comprehensive description of the integrated assessment model (IAM) RESPONSE developed at CIRED. RESPONSE aims at providing a consistent framework to appraise alternative modelling choices made by the main existing IAMs. It is designed as a flexible tool able to take different modelling structures in order to compare results from...
Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use version 1.0 which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms. The Nexus Land-Use mode...
Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms. The Nexus Land-Use model equations...
An simplified application of cost-benefit analysis to sea level rise and to the increased risk of storm surges is performed for the Languedoc-Roussillon region of France. This analysis allows to show the interests and limits of cost-benefit analysis. It shows that taking into account the current level of protection is important. It also highlights...
We apply the advanced time-and-frequency-domain method of singular spectrum analysis to study cyclical behavior in U.S. macroeconomic data for a 52-year interval (1954–2005). This method bridges the gap between the multivariate but merely qualitative definition of the business cycle used by the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and t...
Coastal cities are growing at a very rapid pace, both in population and in terms of assets; therefore, flood risk is likely to increase substantially in these areas in the absence of specific protections. In addition, great uncertainty surrounds the future evolution of hurricane intensity and sea level rise. The area of Miami represents a clear hot...
This paper confronts the wide political support for the 2C objective of global increase in temperature, reaffirmed in Copenhagen, with the consistent set of hypotheses on which it relies. It explains why neither an almost zero pure time preference nor concerns about catastrophic damages in case of uncontrolled global warming are prerequisites for p...
1 Issues related to food, biomass energy and forest preservation are gener-ally analysed in a separate approach, exploring the potential of one variable given a reasonable evolution of the other. However, the current situation is caracterised by the combination of three challenges that have to be si-multaneously taken up: meeting growing food needs...
The main purpose of the study is to evaluate the impacts of climate
change on water resources while taking into account man-made reservoirs
and changes in reservoir operating rules. Mediterranean basins are
already characterized by an important temporal and spatial variability
of water resources, and climatic models, despite the uncertainty, are
in...
This study illustrates a methodology to assess the economic impacts of climate change at a city scale and benefits of adaptation,
taking the case of sea level rise and storm surge risk in the city of Copenhagen, capital of Denmark. The approach is a simplified
catastrophe risk assessment, to calculate the direct costs of storm surges under scenario...
Dams, And, Reservoirs - Financial Structure And Investment Decision In The Present And Under Climate Change Scenario; A Case Study Of The Lom Pangar In The Sanaga Basin In Cameroon, Rapport Pour lAFD
This note highlights a major reason to limit climate change to the lowest possible levels. This reason follows from the large increase in uncertainty associated with high levels of warming. This uncertainty arises from three sources: the change in climate itself, the change’s impacts at the sector level, and their macroeconomic costs. First, the gr...
This paper shows that, counter-intuitively, a higher elasticity of substitution in model production function can lead to reduced economic resilience and larger vulnerability to shocks in production factor prices. This result is due to the fact that assuming a higher elasticity of substitution requires a recalibration of the production function para...
This paper argues that debates amongst economists triggered by the Stern Review are partly relevant, focusing on key parameters translating real ethical issues, and partly misplaced in that they do not consider enough other determinants of climate change damages: i) the specifications of the utility function used for the assessments (preference for...
Climate change will certainly affect water resources and hydraulic infrastructures seriously. The fragile equilibrium between supply and demand of water maybe threatened by an uncertain future climate. Hence, available water quantities will have to be reassessed, taking into account different climatic change scenarios. These projected changes in av...
This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.
It has been suggested that disasters might have positive economic consequences, through the accelerated replacement of capital. This possibility is referred to as the productivity effect. This effect is investigated using a model with embodied technical change. In this framework, disasters can influence the production level but cannot influence the...
E- Le couplage entre les systemes naturels et anthropiques a mo- tive plusieurs travaux de modelisation macro-´economique visantar epresenter ces deux systemes dans un cadre de modelisation integree, ces travaux sont l'objet de cette revue de litterature. Ces interactions, et en particulier les consequenceseconomiques desevenements extremes, sontet...
This paper deals with the regulation of greenhouse gases emissions related to climate change. We consider a stylized climate–economy sequential model and use a cost-effectiveness approach. The analytical study is based on a dynamic programming method. It provides both a tolerable ceiling of concentration and, under simple conditions involving the m...
This paper presents a non-equilibrium dynamic model (NEDyM) that introduces investment dynamics and non-equilibrium effects into a Solow growth model. NEDyM can reproduce several typical economic regimes and, for certain ranges of parameter values, exhibits endogenous business cycles with realistic characteristics. The cycles arise from the investm...
Many economic sectors, like housing or transportation, are exposed to climate and likely to suffer efficiency losses when climate changes. The global economy is far from dematerialized yet, these sectors represent a significant fraction of the existing capital stock. Using an optimal growth model with perfect knowledge, we examine the balance betwe...
We propose a method to extend the concept of feedback gain to nonlinear models. The method is designed to dynamically characterise a feedback mechanism along the system natural trajectory. The numerical efficiency of the method is proved using the Lorenz (1963) classical model. Finally, a simple climate model of water vapour feedback shows how nonl...
This study illustrates a methodology to assess economic impacts of climate change at city scale, focusing on sea level rise and storm surge. It is based on a statistical analysis of past storm surges in the studied city, matched to a geographical-information analysis of the population and asset exposure in the city, for various sea levels and storm...