Paolo Capuano

Università degli Studi di Salerno | UNISA · Department of Physics "E. R. Caianiello" DF

Deep learning models have demonstrated remarkable success in various fields, including seismology. However, one major challenge in deep learning is the presence of mislabeled examples. Additionally, accurately estimating model uncertainty is another challenge in machine learning. In this study, we develop Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to cla...

Of all natural disasters, those especially liable to exhaust capacity are those that occur without a precedent, and cause surprise to public administration officials. This paper addresses this issue. Surprise can be mitigated by considering downward counterfactuals, which can be viewed as contributing to surprise management. These are alternative r...

The variation in Coulomb failure stress (CFS) plays a crucial role in either increasing or decreasing seismic activity. In cases in which the standard epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model does not adequately fit seismicity data, the potential deviations from empirical laws are explored. These deviations may arise from stress changes impar...

Earthquake death tolls are a basic statistical measure of the capability of a country to manage seismic risk. The extremely high Turkish death toll of 50,000 from the Kahramanmaraş earthquake doublet of 6 February 2023 is the product of a cascade of detrimental factors. These need to be explained if lessons from this disaster are to be learned. Thi...

There is an ongoing debate on the processes producing background seismicity and deformation transients across seismic gaps, i.e., regions that lack historical large-magnitude earthquakes. Essential missing elements are geophysical images that resolve sources of geophysical unrest. Here, we apply seismic scattering and absorption tomography to data...

Loss outcomes from geohazards are compounded by an array of human risk factors. The combination of geohazards and human risk factors can generate multi-risk cascades. In the historical record, disasters arising from such multi-risk cascades are comparatively rare. However, far more common are near-misses, where a disaster tipping point to massive d...

First-motion polarity determination is essential for deriving volcanic and tectonic earthquakes’ focal mechanisms, which provide crucial information about fault structures and stress fields. Manual procedures for polarity determination are time-consuming and prone to human error, leading to inaccurate results. Automated algorithms can overcome thes...

The effectiveness of risk mitigation also depends on how well-prepared and informed society is about the risk itself. The younger generation plays a key role in the scientific awareness of society, representing both the future of society and a conduit to reach and educate their families. We developed a didactic experience, based on Serious Games, d...

Storage of energy-related products in the geologic subsurface provides reserve capacity, resilience, and security to the energy supply chain. Sequestration of energy-related products ensures long-term isolation from the environment and, for CO 2 , a reduction in atmospheric emissions. Both porous-rock media and engineered caverns can provide the la...

We present a detailed seismic imaging of the harnessed Nesjavellir geothermal area, SW-Iceland, which is one of several geothermal fields on the flanks of the Hengill volcano. We map the v P , v S , and v P v S ratio using seismic data recorded in 2016–2020 and compare them with both a resistivity model of the same area and the rock temperature as...

This paper presents a high-level overview of site characterization, risk analysis, and monitoring priorities for underground energy-related product storage or sequestration facilities. The siting of an underground energy-related product storage or sequestration facility depends on several important factors beginning with the area of review. Collect...

Ground shaking, whether it is due to natural or induced earthquakes, has always been a matter of concern since it correlates with structural/non-structural damage and can culminate in human anxiety. Industrial activities such as water injection, gas sequestration and waste fluid disposals, promote induced seismicity and consequent ground shaking th...

Sub surface operations for energy production such as gas storage, fluid injection or hydraulic fracking modify the physical properties of the crust, in particular seismic velocity and anelastic attenuation. Continuously measuring these properties may be crucial to monitor the status of the reservoir. Here we propose a not usual use of the empirical...

We present a comprehensive review of seismic and gravity observations and tomographic models produced over the past four decades in order to understand the structure of the crust beneath the Campi Flegrei caldera. We describe the main lithological and structural discontinuities defined through these observations, illustrate their geophysical respon...

After some centuries of subsidence, following the AD 1538 Monte Nuovo last eruption, the Campi Flegrei caldera has shown unrest episodes since at least 1950. The first uplift episode dates back to 1950–1952 and amounted to 73 cm, without any report or record of seismic activity. Two strong inflation episodes occurred in 1970–1972 and 1982–1984. The...

Focal mechanisms of selected earthquakes, recorded in the Mount Pollino region (southern Italy) from 2010 through 2014, are used to infer the pore fluid pressure at hypocenter depths. The 3‐D excess pore pressure field provides evidence that the sequence occurs in a fluid‐filled volume with values reaching 35 MPa. The mechanisms underlying this swa...

A tomographic analysis of Mt. Pollino area (Italy) has been performed using earthquakes recorded in the area during an intense seismic sequence that occurred between 2010 and 2014. 870 local earthquakes with magnitude ranging from 1.8 to 5.0 were selected considering the number of recording stations, the signal quality, and the hypocenter distribut...

Studying the spatiotemporal distribution and motion of water vapour (WV), the most variable greenhouse gas in the troposphere, is pivotal, not only for meteorology and climatology, but for geodesy, too. In fact, WV variability degrades, in an unpredictable way, almost all geodetic observation based on the propagation of electromagnetic signal throu...

Geo-resources are widely exploited in our society, with huge benefits for both economy and communities. Nevertheless, with benefits come risks and impacts. Understanding how such risks and impacts are intrinsically borne in a given project is of critical importance for both industry and society. In particular, it is crucial to distinguish between t...

Reliable seismic hazard analyses are crucial to mitigate seismic risk. When dealing with induced seismicity the standard Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has to be modified because of the peculiar characteristics of the induced events. In particular, the relative shallow depths, small magnitude, a correlation with field operations, and...

We simulate the deformation of Somma-Vesuvius volcano due to some overpressure sources by means of a finite element 3D code. The main goal of these simulations is to investigate the influence of topography and structural heterogeneity on ground deformation. In our model the sources of deformation are embedded in an elastic linear isotropic medium a...

In this study, we investigate the oscillations of relative sea level through the analysis of tide gauge records about 10-year long collected in the Gulfs of Pozzuoli and Napoli (Southern Italy). The main goal of this study is to provide a suitable resolution model of the sea tides including low frequency (seiches), tidal bands and non-linear tides....

Sub-surface operations for energy production such as gas storage, fluid reinjection or hydraulic fracking may modify the physical properties of the rocks, in particular the seismic velocity and the anelastic attenuation. The aim of the present study is to investigate, through a synthetic test, the possibility of using empirical ground-motion predic...

On 3 July 1987, a seismic sequence, with a mainshock of ML 5, took place in the offshore Adriatic, close to the coast of Porto San Giorgio (PSG), Italy. We present an accurate relocation of the PSG seismic sequence using a nonlinear probabilistic approach (Lomax et al., 2000). The trade‐off between the hypocentral location and the velocity model wa...

This Special Issue describes the main outcomes from the SHEER (SHale gas Exploration and Exploitation induced Risks) project, a 3 year EC Horizon 2020 funded investigation into environmental risk associated with shale oil and gas development within the European Union. A key feature of the programme of work has been the independent monitoring of a s...

Osservatorio Vesuviano (OV), branch of Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, is in charge of the surveillance monitoring of the Campanian volcanic areas (Southern Italy). OV manages an integrated monitoring system at Neapolitan Volcanic area, where three active volcanoes (Somma-Vesuvio, Campi Flegrei caldera and Ischia Island) are located...

In recent years, triggered/induced seismicity aroused great interest, especially in areas where hydrocarbon fields are located near active fault zones, as it happens in Italy (Bertello et al., 2010). In particular, after the 2012 Emilia earthquake sequence, the seismicity triggered/induced by hydrocarbon production operations has become an importan...

We propose a thermo-fluid-dynamics model to study some recent uplift episodes occurred in the period 2008–2013 at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). Accounting for eight overpressure sources (from 5 to 40 MPa) in the hydrothermal system, our model solves for heat and momentum balances to obtain fluid velocities responsible for the observed ground displ...

Shale oil and gas exploitation by hydraulic fracturing experienced a strong development worldwide over the last years, accompanied by a substantial increase of related induced seismicity, either consequence of fracturing or wastewater injection. In Europe, unconventional hydrocarbon resources remain underdeveloped and their exploitation controversi...

Environmental effects of shale gas exploration and exploitation are exensively studied in the framework of the ”Shale Gas Exploration and Exploitation Induced Risks” project SHEER.

Abstract In this paper we summarize a number of risk pathway scenarios that are often claimed in literature as of priority for risk analyses in unconventional gas development. The resulting scenarios are structured in diagrams representing causal relationships between events. We argue that science is called to fill gaps regarding the main processes...

Abstract Analysis of natural and anthRopoGenic risks on Offshore platforms (ARGO) is a 3-years project, funded by the Italian Ministry of Economic Development. The project, coordinated by AMRA, a permanent Research Centre for the development of innovative technologies applied to environmental problems, aims at providing technical-support for the an...

ARGO (Analysis of natural and anthropogenic risks on off-shore oil platforms) is a 2 years project, funded by the DGS-UNMIG (Directorate General for Safety of Mining and Energy Activities – National Mining Office for Hydrocarbons and Georesources) of Italian Ministry of Economic Development. The project, coordinated by AMRA (Center for the Analysis...

Shale gas operations may affect the quality of air, water and landscapes; furthermore, it can induce seismic activity, with the possible impacts on the surrounding infrastructure. The SHEER project aims at setting up a probabilistic methodology to assess and mitigate the short and the long term environmental risks connected to the exploration and e...

Without exception, the exploitation of any energy resource produces impacts and intrinsically bears risks. Therefore , to make sound decisions about future energy resource exploitation, it is important to clearly understand the potential environmental impacts in the full life-cycle of an energy development project, distinguishing between the specif...

A novel procedure is proposed to analyse continuous seismic signal on hourly scales to have a prompt discrimination among the different sources. Specifically, this approach is applied to a massive dataset recorded at Campi Flegrei caldera during the year 2006 when a swarm of volcano-tectonic earthquakes occurred. The convolutive independent compone...

This work is devoted to the analysis of seismic signals continuously recorded at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy) during the entire year 2006. The radiation pattern associated with the Long-Period energy release is investigated. We adopt an innovative Independent Component Analysis algorithm for convolutive seismic series adapted and improved to give...

In this paper, we analyze the tropospheric delay observed on some ground-based CGPS stations in a dense small regional network and its time evolution during extreme weather conditions. In particular, we studied two severe weather events occurring in the Campanian Region (Italy) on October 12, 2012 and December 2, 2014, reaching 42 and 28 mm rainfal...

Ischia Island is one of the active volcanoes of the Neapolitan area (Italy). Hazard assessment of active, densely populated volcano is primarily based on knowledge of the volcano’s past behaviour and of its present state. As a contribution to the definition of the present structural setting of Ischia Island, we constructed a new model of the shallo...

The Solfatara crater, together with the surrounding areas of Pisciarelli and Agnano, is considered the most active volcanic sector of the Campi Flegrei caldera, recently affected by clear signs of potential reawakening. Intense, diffuse degassing and fumarolic activity affect Solfatara, where, a systematic monitoring of the chemical-isotopic compos...

Changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events have significant impacts and are one of the most serious challenges faced by society in coping with a changing climate. During the last ten years, floods have caused more damage than in the previous 30 years; for example, a flood event of 22 December 2011 in Dar es Salaam led to 20 deaths, co...

Precipitable water (PW) derived from the CDGPS (Continuous Differential Global Positioning System) zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) is evaluated through comparison of three procedures: using GPT (Global Pressure and Temperature) and GPT2 global models as well as observed data. The results show that the difference between PW retrieved from models (GP...

Urban green infrastructure provides important regulating ecosystem services, such as temperature and flood regulation, and thus, has the potential to increase the resilience of African cities to climate change. Differing characteristics of urban areas can be conceptualised and subsequently mapped through the idea of urban morphology types (UMTs) –...

Osservatorio Vesuviano (OV), department of Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, is in charge of the surveillance monitoring of the Campanian volcanic areas, to promptly recognize any variation of the physical-chemical parameters helpful as precursors of eruption. OV manages an integrated monitoring system at Neapolitan Volcanic area, whe...

This research deals with an application of GPS technique in meteorology aimed mainly at weather hazard mitigation. We report on the analysis of the observed tropospheric delay on some continuous GPS (CGPS) stations. Mainly we focus on the potentialities coming from the integration among meteorological observations (air pressure, temperature, humidi...

A high-resolution image of the compressional wave velocity and density structure in the shallow edifice of Mount Vesuvius has been derived from simultaneous inversion of travel times and hypocentral parameters of local earthquakes and from gravity inversion. The robustness of the tomography solution has been improved by adding to the earthquake dat...

We present an improved density model and a new structural map of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff caldera, the active portion of the nested Campi Flegrei caldera. The model was built using a new 3-D inversion of the available high-precision gravity data, and a new digital terrain and marine model. The inversion procedure, based on a variable-depth lumped...

Global Positioning System (GPS) has demonstrated its ability to monitor the atmospheric water vapor content with an accuracy comparable to other techniques and means of measurements (e.g. radio soundings, microwave radiometers), even with good time resolution and under all meteorological conditions. The nowadays extensive use of permanent GPS stati...

Tutte le stazioni mareografiche sono equipaggiate con sensori digitali e hanno rate di campionamento di 1 minuto. I dati analogici dal maggio 1999 e successivamente quelli digitali sono stati esaminati e validati. 14 anni di dati sono stati analizzati nel dominio delle frequenze e le componenti astronomiche sono state individuate con l’analisi armo...

Last decades, new records were set in the world for tornadoes, drought, wind, floods, wildfires and hot temperatures, testifying unusual weather and climate patterns with increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Extreme heat events are natural hazards affecting many regions in the world, nevertheless limited work has been done...

Urban green structure provides important regulating ecosystem services, such as temperature and flood regulation, and thus, has the potential to increase the resilience of African cities to climate change. Green structures within urban areas are not only limited to discrete units associated with recreational parks, agricultural areas and open space...

We investigate the physical processes that generate the ocean tides, whose understanding has important influence on the marine activities. We analyze historical sea-level oscillations, continuously recorded from six stations in the North Atlantic Ocean spanning a time period of eighty years from 1926. In this paper, an Independent-Component-Analysi...

Volcanic and geothermal aspects both exist in many geologically young areas. In these areas the heat trans-fer process is of fundamental importance, so that the thermal and fluid-dynamic processes characterizing a viscous fluid in a porous medium are very important to understand the com-plex dynamics of the these areas. The Campi Flegrei caldera, l...

Volcanic and geothermal aspects both exist in many geologically Young areas. In these areas the heat transfer process is of fundamental importance, so that the thermal and fluid-dynamic processes characterizing a viscous fluid in a porous medium are very important to understand the complex dynamics of the these areas. The Campi Flegrei caldera, loc...

Since its first observation occurred about ten years ago in Japan, non-volcanis tremor (NVT) has been observed in many areas worldwide. NVT is generally associated with fluid movements in the lithosphere and, together with the slow-slip events, are considered a key factor to understand the stress state and stress transfer in tectonic frameworks, es...

Campi Flegrei is a caldera complex located in the Campanian plain region of southern Italy, 15 km west of the city of Naples, and forms part of the Roman co-magmatic province which is a volcanic chain that characterizes the western coast of the country. The Campi Flegrei caldera was generated by several collapses produced by strong explosive erupti...