Pao-Yu Oei

Pao-Yu Oei
Technische Universität Berlin | TUB · Economics and Management Science

Dipl.-Ing, Ph.D.

About

102
Publications
34,208
Reads
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1,104
Citations
Introduction
Pao-Yu Oei currently works at the Technische Universität Berlin and is head of a group on the transition from fossil fuels towards renewable energy sources. He is an expert for the analysis of the effects of the decarbonization of the electricity sector focusing on the future for coal. He has been involved in numerous projects on the German coal phase-out, and has been part of German Energy Policy partnership delegations. He holds a Dipl. Ing. as industrial engineer and a Ph.D. in Economics from TU Berlin. He is a guest researcher at the German Economic Research Institute (DIW Berlin) and managing editor of the Journal Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy (EEEP).
Additional affiliations
November 2017 - present
Technische Universität Berlin
Position
  • Head of Department
Description
  • http://www.wip.tu-berlin.de/menue/research_group_coalexit/parameter/en/
August 2016 - October 2017
Umweltbundesamt, Germany
Position
  • Researcher
May 2016 - present
International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE)
Position
  • Managing Editor

Publications

Publications (102)
Article
Full-text available
Germany currently imports 500 TWh/a of natural gas from the Russian Federation. Most of this gas is used to generate process and space heat. By accelerating the conversion of heat supply to heat pumps powered by renewable electricity, renew-able heat in district heating networks, and the substitution of natural gas in electricity generation with re...
Article
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A rapid coal phase-out is needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, but is hindered by serious challenges ranging from vested interests to the risks of social disruption. To understand how to organize a global coal phase-out, it is crucial to go beyond cost-effective climate mitigation scenarios and learn from the experience of previous coal...
Article
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The aim of this paper is to showcase different decarbonization pathways for Europe with varying Carbon dioxide (CO2) constraints until 2050. The Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD) framework, a linear mathematical optimization model, is used to compute low-carbon scenarios for 17 European countries or regions. The sectors power, low- and high-...
Article
This paper assesses the impact of decarbonization on the energy system and related employment in South Africa. The cost-minimizing, global energy system model (GENeSYS-MOD) is utilized to project two energy mix scenarios and their associated employment implications at provincial level. While the business as usual (BAU) scenario shows a continuous u...
Article
For climate change mitigation, a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels such as coal is necessary. This has far-reaching gender-specific consequences. This paper presents a systematic map of the literature that examines the impact of historical coal phase-out processes on women and their role in these processes. The search process consisted of screening o...
Article
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With the energy sector being one of the largest sources of global greenhouse-gas emissions, a swift change in the ways of energy generation and consumption is needed for a fulfilment of climate goals. But while the existence of global warming and the resulting need for action are widely agreed upon, there is a lot of discussion around the concrete...
Technical Report
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Zusammenfassung Als fairer Beitrag Deutschlands zur Einhaltung der globalen 1,5-Grad-Grenze werden 16 Orientierungspunkte für eine klimaverträgliche Energieversorgung vorgestellt. Es wird davon ausgegangen, dass hierfür die deutschen energiebedingten CO2-Emissio-nen in etwa 15 Jahren weitgehend auf Null sinken müssen. Energieeinsparung hilft, den...
Article
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This paper examines medium and long-term perspectives for global steam coal production and trade, considering the potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and plausible recovery scenarios in its aftermath. We use an interdisciplinary approach to develop a range of stylized global coal demand scenarios until 2040 depicting the influence of the COV...
Article
This paper aims to quantify the relation between real GDP, CO2 emissions, renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption, tourism development and labor force for France and Germany as these two countries are pioneer countries pushing Paris agreement within and outside the European Union. The time spans have been used for the period of 1995-2015 acco...
Article
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The ambition of the openENTRANCE project is to develop and establish an open, transparent and integrated modelling platform for assessing low-carbon transition pathways of the European energy system. In this context, the open source energy system model GENeSYS-MOD is one of the core models having been developed enabling quantitative scenario pathwa...
Article
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Berlin, October 2, 2020 | Scientists for Future (S4F) confirm that the demands of Fridays for Future (FFF) on EU politics are factually necessary and scientifically justified. According to IPCC calculations , the EU27 will have a residual budget for emissions of 20 Gt CO from 2021 to limit global warming to a maximum of 1.5 degrees. An 80% reductio...
Article
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Political decisions and trends regarding coal use for electricity generation developed differently in the UK and Germany, despite being subject to relatively similar climate protection targets and general political and economic conditions. The UK agreed on a coal phase-out by 2024. In Germany, a law schedules a coal phase-out by 2038 at the latest....
Article
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Poland is the largest hard coal and second largest lignite producer in the EU, generating around 80 percent of its electricity from coal. Resistance to a reduction in coal production and consumption comes from various actors, namely, coal corporations, unions, parts of civil society and the government – as well as their coalitions. Their opposition...
Article
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The COVID-19 pandemic results in a global recession and consequently a drop in fuel prices and global coal demand. This will exacerbate already existing economic challenges of the coal industry and might accelerate global coal phase-out and just transition efforts, depending on the nature of economic recovery strategies.
Article
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The political discussion to reduce the carbon footprint of Germany's electricity sector, focusing on coal, is intensifying. In this paper, we develop scenarios for phasing out lignite and hard coal power plants in Germany prior to the end of their technical lifespan ("coal-exit"). Our analysis bases upon two coal-exit instruments, the retirement of...
Article
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The present study examines the consequences of the planned coal phase-out in Germany according to various phase-out pathways that differ in the ordering of power plant closures. Soft-linking an energy system model with an input-output model and a regional macroeconomic model simulates the socio-economic effects of the phase-out in the lignite regio...
Article
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The main aim of models has never been to provide numbers, but insights. Still, challenges prevail for modelers to use the best configuration of their models to provide helpful insights. In the case of energy system modelling, this becomes even more complicated due to increasing complexity of the energy system transition through the potential and ne...
Article
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Growing prosperity among its population and an inherent increasing demand for energy complicate China’s target of combating climate change, while maintaining its economic growth. This paper, therefore, describes three potential decarbonization pathways to analyze different effects for the electricity, transport, heating, and industrial sectors unti...
Article
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German hard coal production ended in 2018, following the termination of subsidies. This paper looks at 60 years of continuous decline of an industry that employed more than 600,000 people, through a case study comparing Germany’s two largest hard coal mining areas (Ruhr area and Saarland). Although predominantly economic drivers underlay the transi...
Article
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In this paper, multiple pathways for the European energy system until 2050 are computed, focusing on one of the major challenges of the low-carbon transition: the issue of unused capacities and stranded assets. Three different scenarios are analyzed, utilizing the Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD) for calculations. A major feature is the int...
Article
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This paper recalls the development of the German lignite regions Rhineland and Lusatia since 1945 to allow for a better understanding of their situation in 2019. We analyze their economic resilience, defined as adaptive capacity, using Holling’s adaptive cycle model. We find that the Rhineland is currently in the conservation phase, while Lusatia e...
Article
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Colombia faces several challenges to secure a reliable, affordable, and climate-friendly energy supply.Persistently low reserve-to-production ratios in oil and gas, together with advancing climate change, areputting the country’s energy system at risk. Heavily relying on hydro-power, Colombia’s electricitysystem will become more vulnerable with ext...
Article
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This paper uses numerical techno-economic modelling to analyse the effect of current national renewable targets and climate goals on the cost and structural composition of the Mexican energy system. For this, we construct a scenario base analysis to compare current policies with two alternative states of the world—one without climate policies and o...
Article
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Like many other countries, Germany has defined goals to reduce its CO2-emissionsfollowing the Paris Agreement of the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP). The first successesin decarbonizing the electricity sector were already achieved under the German Energiewende.However, further steps in this direction, also concerning the heat and transport sec...
Article
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The nuclear industry in the United States of America has accumulated about 70,000 metric tons of high-level nuclear waste over the past decades; at present, this waste is temporarily stored close to the nuclear power plants. The industry and the Department of Energy are now facing two related challenges: (i) will a permanent geological repository,...
Article
The European Union has set out to reduce the carbon intensity of its electricity generation substantially, as defined in the European Roadmap 2050. This paper analyses the impact of foresight towards decarbonization targets on the investment decisions in the European electricity sector using a specific model developed by the authors called dynELMOD...
Chapter
The European Union has embarked on the transformation of its energy and electricity system to low-carbon energy sources, just like Germany and many other countries. This chapter analyzes the European strategy for low-carbon transformation in relation to specific aspects and features of the German energiewende. Due to the different preferences, obje...
Chapter
Long-term scenarios of the low-carbon energy transformation in Europe are quite diverse. In this chapter, we provide a detailed discussion of scenarios leading to a far-reaching decarbonization of the European energy system to 2050. We use an updated version of the Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD), developed by our group to study various lo...
Chapter
Both in the German energiewende and in the European low-carbon energy system transformation, infrastructure is generally considered as a conditio sine qua non: a necessary though not sufficient condition for a low-carbon economy—and one without which energy transformation may fail. At second glance, there may be some doubt as to whether “big infras...
Chapter
The German economic and industrial development in the nineteenth and twentieth century was based (among other things) on coal. After World War II, the reconstruction of both German states, too, was largely organized around the coal and steel industry. Therefore, it is a particular challenge, that the objectives of the energiewende require a complet...
Book
This book provides an in-depth analysis of the energy transformation process ongoing in Germany, now commonly referred to as energiewende, in the European context, with a focus on the electricity sector. It presents an expert look at the origins of the German energiewende, its concrete implementation, its impacts within the European context as well...
Article
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This paper presents a general electricity-CO\(_{2}\) modeling framework that is able to simulate interactions of the energy-only market with different forms of national policy measures. We set up a two sector model where players can invest into various types of generation technologies including renewables, nuclear power and carbon capture, transpor...
Article
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With an increasing expected energy demand and current dominance of coal electrification, India plays a major role in global carbon policies and the future low-carbon transformation. This paper explores three energy pathways for India until 2050 by applying the linear, cost-minimizing, global energy system model (GENeSYS-MOD). The benchmark scenario...
Technical Report
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Relevante Fragen rund um die Möglichkeiten und Erfordernisse der Reduzierung und Beendigung der Kohleverstromung werden seit mehreren Jahren diskutiert. Dabei sind eine Fülle von Strategien, Analysen und Argumenten entwickelt worden, wie die Reduzierung und Beendigung der energetischen Nutzung von Kohle auf der Zeitachse umgesetzt und strukturpolit...
Article
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Power generation from lignite and hard coal was responsible for more than a quarter of German greenhouse gas emissions in 2016. Of all federal states, North Rhine-Westphalia is by far the largest carbon emitter. The Growth, Structural Change and Regional Development Commission (also known as “Coal Commission”) among others are currently debating al...
Article
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The aim of this paper is to showcase different decarbonization pathways for Germany and Europe with varying Carbon dioxide (CO 2) constraints until 2050. The Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD) framework, a linear mathematical optimization model, is used to compute low-carbon scenarios for Europe as a whole, as well as for 17 European countrie...
Article
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Continued global action on climate change has major consequences for fossil fuel markets, especially for coal as the most carbon-intensive fuel. This article summarizes current market developments in the most important coal-producing and coal-consuming countries, resulting in a critical qualitative assessment of prospects for future coal exports. C...
Chapter
The energiewende “made in Germany” is a relatively recent phenomenon, yet with a long germination period, going back to the 1970s, and it has attracted broad interest in many spheres, including academia, industry, and policy making. The previous chapters have provided insights into specific aspects of the process, and have sketched out possible pat...
Chapter
At least since the 1980 study on the energiewende by Krause et al. (Energie-Wende: Wachstum und Wohlstand ohne Erdöl und Uran. Frankfurt am Main: S. Fischer), renewable energies have been considered a viable alternative to conventional fossil fuels, and renewable energy technologies were seen as a “soft path” towards a more sustainable energy syste...
Chapter
The reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, in particular CO2, is a major objective of the German energiewende. There has been broad consensus on this goal for many years now—in contrast to the continuing discussion over the proposed shutdown of Germany’s nuclear power plants. The German government’s Energy Concept 2010 already aimed at a 80–9...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Analysis on the future of Coal in Colombia due to limited global demand as renewables become cheaper and countries phase-out coal for economic and climate reasons - Entire study is in spanish (English version also available). This is an updated version of a prior study from 2016, also including a better visualization of results and analysis
Article
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The world needs to continue working to protect the climate—this is generally undisputed. However, there is no agreement on which technologies should be used to decarbonize the energy sector. Many international scenarios still assume a relevant role for nuclear power in the future. However, a study by the German Institute for Economic Research shows...
Article
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Die Notwendigkeit weltweiter Anstrengungen für den Klimaschutz ist unbestritten. Jedoch herrscht über die Fragen, mit welchen Technologien der Energiesektor dekarbonisiert werden soll, keine Einigkeit. Während viele internationale Szenarien auch zukünftig von einer relevanten Rolle für die Atomkraft ausgehen, zeigt eine am DIW Berlin durchgeführte...
Article
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This paper develops a path for the global energy system up to 2050, presenting a new application of the open-source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS) to the community. It allows quite disaggregate energy and emission analysis: Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD) uses a system of linear equations of the energy system to search for lowest-cost s...
Article
Full-text available
This paper develops a path for the global energy system up to 2050, presenting a new application of the open source energy systems model OSeMOSYS to the community. It allows quite disaggregate energy and emission analysis: GENeSYS-MOD (Global Energy System Model) uses a system of linear equations of the energy system to search for lowest-cost solut...
Article
Full-text available
India on the way towards decarbonIzation. India has emerged as a major energy producing and consuming country, and it is also one of the largest emitters of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. With a doubling of its energy use since the turn of the century, and still a relatively modest per capita energy consumption, India faces significant challen...
Conference Paper
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Currently, around 86% of the worlds energy supply is based on fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Burning these fossil fuels emits greenhouse gases, leading to climate change and environmental warming. Hence, especially since the Paris agreement (UNFCC 2015), there is a need to take a look at the global energy system and its possible realizations towa...
Article
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Den Klimaschutzzielen der Bundesregierung zufolge muss die Braunkohleverstromung in Deutschland bereits deutlich vor dem Jahr 2030 kontinuierlich abnehmen. Simulationen zeigen, dass die bereits genehmigten Tagebaufelder in den ostdeutschen Revieren bei einer Einhaltung der Klimaschutzziele bis 2030 nicht vollständig ausgekohlt würden. Pläne für neu...
Article
According to the German federal government’s climate protection targets, there will be a continuous reduction of lignite-based electricity well before 2030. Simulations show that the currently authorized lignite mines in eastern Germany would not be fully depleted if the climate protection targets for 2030 were complied with. This makes planning fo...
Article
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Mit dem aktuellen energiepolitischen Kurs droht die Politik ihre selbst gesteckten nationalen und internationalen Klimaschutzziele deutlich zu verfehlen. Der eingeschlagene Pfad ist daher auch nicht im Einklang mit den Vorgaben des Pariser Klimaabkommens. Zur Reduktion von Treibhausgasemissionen sind weitere regulatorische Maßnahmen notwendig. In d...
Article
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Die Atomwirtschaft steht vor tiefgreifenden Veränderungen, nicht nur in Deutschland, sondern in ganz Europa. Der Bau neuer Atomkraftwerke ist mit sehr hohen Kosten verbunden, selbst bei hohen CO2-Preisen kann Atomkraft nicht wettbewerbsfähig werden. Trotzdem geht das EU-Referenzszenario davon aus, dass in den kommenden drei Jahrzehnten in Europa ne...
Article
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The nuclear power industry is faced with profound challenges— not only in Germany, but throughout Europe as well. New nuclear power plants are very expensive to build and even at high carbon prices, nuclear power is not competitive. Nevertheless, the EU reference scenario assumes that within the next three decades, new nuclear power plants will be...