Pablo Solana

• Managing Director at Independent Researcher

In this study, a price prediction model for futures markets of crypto assets is presented. Random Forest was used to study three scenarios as a function of input variables: technical indicators, candlestick patterns and both simultaneously. In turn, the model parameters, the time intervals, and the most suitable investment horizons were studied. In...

This paper aims to explain how the inclusion of real options may significantly improve the assessment of collective dismissal procedure. During crisis times, like the one Spain has been going through on the last years, the 'collective dismissal procedure is an important issue to be considered within companies that are having a negative economic sit...

An optimal dispatch strategy is crucial for an isolated wind-diesel power system to save diesel fuel and maintain the system stability. The uncertainty associated with the stochastic character of the wind is, though, a challenging problem for this optimization. In this paper, a dynamic multi-stage decision-making model is proposed to determine the...

The work in this paper focuses on the integration of the real options theory for organizational projects in the management of Human Resources, and particularly on the inclusion of the deferral option in collective dismissal procedures. This option has been studied and developed to be applied to 'Expediente de regulacion de empleo', which is the leg...

Hybrid wind-diesel power systems have a great potential in providing energy supply to remote communities. Compared with the traditional diesel systems , hybrid power plants can offer many advantages such as additional capacity, being more environmentally friendly, and potential reduction of cost. The O&M of a hybrid power project requires comprehen...

Purpose: This paper presents a model for determining value at operational risk “OpVaR” in electric utilities, with the aim to confirm the versatility of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) proposals. The model intends to open a new methodological approach in risk management, paying special attention to underlying operational sources of ris...

La crisis financiera ha planteado disyuntivas respecto al uso de series de tiempo para el pronóstico de riesgos financieros. Por esta razón el Comité de Basilea de Supervisión Bancaria (CSBS) del Banco de Pagos Internacionales (BPI), ha propuesto un viraje hacia modelos cualitativos o mixtos que permitan detectar posibles eventos de riesgos de alto...

The fnancial crisis has brought up dilemmas regarding the use of time series to forecast financial risks. For this reason, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has proposed a shift towards qualitative or mixed models to detect potential risk events, generally of low frequency and high imp...

na experiencia reciente que ha generado el in-terés de establecer análisis de riesgos operacionales (RO) en unidades de investigación o empre-sas que no necesariamente pertenez-can al sector bancario, la presentó TEPCO (Tokyo Electric Power Com-pany), una empresa energética que se ha visto afectada por eventos externos a sus operaciones rutinarias,...

Se aplican las recomendaciones del Comité para la Supervisión Bancaria de Basilea (CBSB) del Banco de Pagos Internacionales (BPI) para la detección de riesgos operacionales (RO) en empresas del sector eléctrico, con la finalidad de establecer su exposición a este tipo de riesgo financiero. Se muestra inicialmente cómo Venezuela puede tener fuentes...

The recomentions of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) are applied to the detection of operational risks (OpR) in enterprises of the electricity sector, in order to establish its exposure to this kind of financial risk. Initially, it is shown how Venezuela can have OpR sources that can...

Hybrid diesel-wind power generation systems have a great potential in the application of providing energy supply for remote communities and facilities. Compared to the traditional diesel system, hybrid power plants can offer many advantages such as additional capacity, being more environmentally friendly, potential reduction of cost, etc. One of th...

According to recent estimations the financial gap between Large Reactors (LR) and Small Medium Reactors (SMRs) seems not as huge as the economy of scale would suggest, so the SMRs are going to be important players of the worldwide nuclear renaissance. POLIMIs INCAS model has been developed to compare the investment in SMR with respect to LR. It pro...

This article shows software that allows determining the statistical behavior of qualitative data originating surveys previously transformed with a Likert’s scale to quantitative data. The main intention is offer to users a useful tool to know statistics' characteristics and forecasts of financial risks in a fast and simple way. Additionally, this p...

La caída del gigante energético Enron y los ataques a las torres gemelas en 2001, afectaron la economía mundial. Estos, entre otros eventos, probaron que los riesgos operativos no eran un fenómeno que debiera ser analizados sólo desde un punto de vista financiero, como había sido hasta ese momento, sino que debían ser estudiados globalmente en toda...

Se genera un modelo normalizado y monitorizado por indicadores numéricos históricos y cualitativos de expertos que serán tratados estadísticamente y que permitirán pronosticar el comportamiento de los procesos inherentes a las labores rutinarias de la empresa energética independientes de las variables macroeconómicas que no permiten mantener la...

The correct valuation of an R&D project is a rather complex process. Aside from the fact that it can take several years to launch a new product after extensive investment, there happens to be a significant abandonment probability at each of the development and exploitation stages. Significant uncertainty is also inherently attached to both developm...

Dimensional and similarity analyses are used in physics and engineering, specially in fluid mechanics, to reduce the dimension of the input variable space with no loss of information. Here, we apply these techniques to the propagation of uncertainties for computer codes by the Monte Carlo method, in order to reduce the variance of the estimators of...

In many physical processes, there is uncertainty in the parameters which define the process and this input uncertainty is propagated through the equations of the process to its output. Experimental design is essential to quantify the uncertainty of the input parameters. If the process is simulated by a computer code, propagation of uncertainties is...

The significance of melt ejection during various drilling regimes of laser drilling is investigated. The predictions of two analytical models of the drilling process, with and without the melt ejection mechanism, are compared with experimental measurements made using a free-running Nd:YAG laser over a wide range of drilling conditions in aluminum a...

A self-consistent time dependent model for the laser drilling of metals is provided, including the analysis of ablation mechanisms, liquid ejection and heat conduction. The energy balance relation assumed to be valid at the ablation front links all the various interacting phenomena involving the absorption of laser light within the vapour. Two liqu...

In the process of cw laser welding the action of the laser generates a weld pool in the work piece which undergoes translation. In the interests of simplicity the effect of translation on the shape of the weld pool is neglected, as well as the flow of liquid within the pool. A small top part of the free surface of the weld pool in the form of a cir...

A reliable model of the laser drilling process is potentially an important tool for operators of industrial laser drilling systems, allowing the effects of altering material and laser parameters to be studied without the need for extensive and costly, drilling trials. A number of models have been developed for laser drilling, but the reliability of...

The problem of the steady heat transfer in a hollow cylinder subject to intense heating on its walls is studied and solved analytically. The heat supplied to the inner cylinder wall is supposed to be generated by the action of a laser beam on a gas circulating inside the hollow cylinder, acting as the cathode of an arc-welding device. The inverse p...

A mathematical model for the laser drilling of metals is given for the cases of constant and pulsed laser sources. Attenuation of the laser beam within the vapour is considered through an averaged absorption coefficient . The experimentally observed logarithmic dependence of the hole depth on the laser energy is predicted theoretically. A singular...

An eddy viscosity model is used to describe the gas flow past the cathode in arc welding. The axial and radial components of the velocity vector are studied in order to give account of the relative strength of the radial component for two different torch designs. The radial component of the gas velocity is related to the extension of the emitting r...

A spherical system of coordinates is used to solve the time-dependent heat-conduction equation for inside a conical cathode, whose surface is subjected, during arc welding processes, to complicated thermal heat-exchange effects. These arise from a variety of factors such as ion bombardment from the main body of the electrical arc, thermionic emissi...

The velocity distributions of ions and electrons are evaluated in the region intermediate between the plasma bulk and the so-called drift region. A largely analytical one dimensional model is provided in which the motion of particles is described by the Langevin equation taking into account the effect of the electric field. In the case of ions, thi...

In the deep penetration laser welding of materials as well as in other laser material processing it is usual for the laser to generate a keyhole in the material. One of the principal mechanisms of energy absorption in the keyhole is the Fresnel absorption process on the keyhole wall. In order to take account of the Fresnel absorption process proper...

A detailed model is constructed in order to determine the full 3D weld pool and keyhole geometry by setting the appropriate energy and pressure balances. The energy balance takes into account heat conduction, ablation losses and evaporation effects at the keyhole open surfaces, as well as the most relevant energy-absorption mechanisms, namely Fresn...

The keyhole in the work piece generated by a laser in keyhole welding is surrounded by a molten weld pool. The shape of this pool affects the profile of the completed weld, but is itself affected strongly by thermocapillary flow at the surface caused by gradients of surface tension, as well as the translation of the work piece. Powerful thermocapil...

Deep penetration laser welding of metals generates a keyhole surrounded by a molten region which forms the weld on freezing. Mathematical models of the process produce relationships between the process parameters to provide an effective simulation of the process and a guide to optimal operating conditions both for continuous wave (cw) and pulsed sy...

The dependence of the voltage of a stable plasma are on the current, are length and pressure has been fitted to experimental data with the are operating in positive and negative resistance modes. A general justification for this behaviour is provided together with the operating domain over which negative resistance behaviour can be observed. A simp...

In the process of CW laser welding the action of the laser generates a weld pool in the work piece which undergoes translation. Additionally, complicated flows of molten material occur. The weld pool would be hemispherical in shape if it were at rest relative to the laser beam. In the interests of simplicity this case of a hemispherical weld pool w...

Most models of plasma arc welding rely on a mixture of empirical results and basic physical principles; relatively few use solely the physics of a plasma arc and the associated fluid dynamics in their construction. This paper looks further at the consequences of an earlier model of the second type operating at atmospheric pressure. The model is com...

In constrained tungsten-inert gas welding the electric welding arc can be described as a hot magnetohydrodynamic plasma jet incident on the anode. The action of the welding arc depends on this arc-anode interaction which transfers energy from the main body of the plasma jet to the anode surface and constitutes an important part of the welding proce...

The deep penetration laser welding of metals involves the action of a laser beam usually incident normally on a translating work piece. This generates a keyhole in the metal surrounded by a molten region which secures the weld when the metal freezes. The relevant process parameters involved are the power of the laser beam, the translation speed of...

The action of a laser generates a keyhole in the work piece surrounded by a molten weld pool when it is used for the deep penetration welding of metals. The boundary of the weld pool is the melting isotherm of the metal and its cross sectional shape varies with depth when viewed from above the pool. The circulation pattern is the combined result of...

A one dimensional model for the determination of the main physical quantities in the region near the cathode is presented, taking into account neutral-ion collisions and electron heat conduction, through the fundamental equations of conservation of mass, momentum and energy posed separately for each species. Drift effects are considered to be domin...

A set of numerical models for the characterization of laser processing applications is developed. The main physical and calculational features of these models are given along with some results on their comparison to experimental data and other well established theoretical models. Special emphasis is made on the suitability of the set of models for...

La inflación es un fenómeno muy importante para la economía, ya que algunas de las crisis económicas más severas que ha habido en el mundo se debieron a una descontrolada inflación. Pero una disminución de precios, llamada deflación, tampoco es positiva para la economía, puesto que se entra en una espiral peligrosa: como los bienes y servicios baja...

Resumen Se plantea un modelo para optimizar los ingresos por ocupación de un hotel durante un determinado período de tiempo. Las variables de decisión son el nivel de ocupación por reservas, a partir del cual se realiza una subida de la tarifa, y el momento a partir del que la tarifa se incrementa. La función objetivo es la maximización de los ingr...

Yield management is the process of actively managing inventory to maximize revenues. In this paper we present a model demised to apply yield management techniques using real options to the problem of optimal decision making when assigning rooms to hotel customers. Two different methods are proposed to carry out the evaluation: numerical resolution...