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Introduction
Omar-Dario Cardona A. currently works at the Institute of Environment Studies of the National University of Colombia (Manizales) and he is the CEO of INGENIAR: Risk Intelligence Ltd. (Bogota).
See at Google Scholar:
https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=awmKW0EAAAAJ&hl=en National University of Colombia
https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=zhzxbpsAAAAJ&hl=en Ingeniar CAD/CAE Ltda. &
Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omar-Dar%C3%ADo_Cardona_Arboleda
Additional affiliations
December 1986 - October 2023
INGENIAR CAD/CAE LTDA. (Ingeniar: Risk Intelligence)
Position
- CEO
Description
- Principal Investigator
January 2002 - May 2016
January 1988 - January 1995
Presidency of the Republic of Colombia
Position
- Director National National Directorate for Disaster Risk Management
Description
- National Coordination of the National System for Disaster Risk Management
Education
September 1997 - December 2001
June 1990 - December 1990
January 1990 - May 1990
Publications
Publications (276)
Este artículo presenta un resumen de los estudios detallados del riesgo por corrientes de densidad piroclástica, flujos de lodo, flujos de escombros volcánicos y caída de piroclastos en los municipios del área de influencia del volcán Galeras, que se realizaron con un enfoque probabilista, teniendo en cuenta el modelamiento de la vulnerabilidad de...
This background paper has been made in the framework of the project "Development of a Global Infrastructure Risk Model and Resilience Index (GIRI) for the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI), Biennial Report on Disaster and Climate Resilient Infrastructure, 2023", supported by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), and de...
This background paper has been made in the framework of the project "Development of a Global Infrastructure Risk Model and Resilience Index (GIRI) for the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI), Biennial Report on Disaster and Climate Resilient Infrastructure, 2023", supported by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), and de...
In the task of defining earthquake design accelerations, different approaches have been used worldwide and recent advances have led to changes in the rationale behind the choice of these coefficients. Considering that the two main objectives of earthquake engineering are to guarantee a certain level of earthquake safety while allowing designs to be...
Work on disaster risk is a challenge due to hazard complexity and interaction between socio-ecological systems. However, potential uses of disaster risk assessment include land-use planning, infrastructure development prioritization, and insurance measures, which can be developed in local, subnational, or national scales by public or private initia...
Hydrologic extremes, in terms of floods and droughts, can become catastrophic events for vulnerable underdeveloped communities. Disaster risk management is a useful tool to understand risk drivers and bring relevant information to develop mechanisms to reduce vulnerabilities and potential damages, building resilience in the long term. This chapter...
A lo largo de esta obra el lector podrá observar las distintas manifestaciones de la corrupción en entornos tan diversos como los sistemas de salud, el sector privado, la contratación pública o la gestión de desastres y el impacto de sus nefastas consecuencias; pero al mismo tiempo podrá advertir la variedad de mecanismos a través de los cuales se...
A lo largo de esta obra el lector podrá observar las distintas manifestaciones de la corrupción en entornos tan diversos como los sistemas de salud, el sector privado, la contratación pública o la gestión de desastres y el impacto de sus nefastas consecuencias; pero al mismo tiempo podrá advertir la variedad de mecanismos a través de los cuales se...
SUMARIO: I. INTRODUCCIÓN. II. LA NECESIDAD DE CONSOLIDAR INSTITUCIONES PARA LA GESTIÓN DEL RIESGO DE DESASTRES. III. PROBLEMÁTICAS EN LA PRÁCTICA DE LA GESTIÓN DEL RIESGO DE DESASTRES: EL MANEJO DE LA PANDEMIA DE LA COVID-19 EN COLOMBIA. IV. CONCLUSIONES. BIBLIOGRAFÍA.
The objective of the holistic risk assessment is to evaluate risk from a comprehensive perspective, integrating physical risk, or potential physical damage, linked to the happening of hazard events and socio-economic and environmental factors, non-hazard-dependent. This approach seeks to capture how these latter have an incidence on physical risk,...
This paper presents a methodological approach for the quantification of climate-related disaster risk and its use within decision-making processes to support adaptation, based on extended catastrophe modeling theory to incorporate deep uncertainty through imprecise, non-stationary, probability metrics. In this method, thousands of weather simulatio...
Una peculiaridad frente a lo imprevisible, a pesar del progreso y del rol de la ciencia para dar cuenta de la incertidumbre, es que lo normal no es percibir que las cosas ocurren con aleatoriedad. Algunas complejidades asociadas con la subjetividad y la aversión a lo imprevisible explican por qué a menudo una amenaza mayor y sus efectos es más invi...
From a macroeconomic perspective, the occurrence of disasters, especially high-impact events, can lead to financial stress in a country due to the sudden high demand for resources to restore affected exposed assets. Disaster risk is a sovereign risk and implies a non-explicit contingent liability that, in many cases, has a major impact on fiscal su...
The Cathedral Basilica of Manizales is one of the most representative buildings of the so-called "republican architecture", boosted in a remarkable and singular way after the fires of the 1920s in the city of Manizales, Colombia. Its "eclectic neo-gothic" design was made in Paris, after the fire that destroyed the city's previous cathedral in 1926....
Quite frequently, catastrophes impact populated areas of the world, and hence the need for proper risk evaluations that support mitigation and management processes. Because of the uncertain nature of extreme natural hazards and lack of data, forecasts of the potential damage and losses before the event happens are needed. Catastrophe (CAT) models b...
Risk identification is the first step on a comprehensive disaster risk management strategy, and nowadays, when new open-source tools to conduct those analyses are becoming widely available, the interest and need to increase their transparency has increased. Catastrophic risk due to natural hazards should be considered in a prospective way quantifyi...
La sequía es una amenaza de desarrollo lento que no causa pérdidas sobre el ambiente construido (edificaciones e infraestructura en general), pero si ocasiona la degradación de los medios de subsistencia de la población expuesta (principalmente agua y cultivos), aumentando sus condiciones de vulnerabilidad y, en consecuencia, aumentando el riesgo a...
Se presenta la propuesta de coeficientes sísmicos de diseño desarrollada desde el comité AIS-300 para la actualización de la Norma Colombiana de Construcción Sismo Resistente NSR. Esta propuesta aborda los conceptos de coeficientes óptimos de diseño que han sido la base metodológica para los movimientos de diseño en países como México, alejándose d...
Evaluar el riesgo debido a la pandemia Covid-19, a diferencia de otras amenazas, no es una actividad limitada a la fase previa a la reducción del riesgo sino un proceso simultáneo, permanente y que debe tener en cuenta la retroalimentación de las decisiones que se estén implementando durante la prevención/reducción del riesgo y el manejo de la emer...
Disaster risk is not only associated with the occurrence of intense hazard events but also with the vulnerability conditions that favour or facilitate disasters when such events occur. Vulnerability is closely linked to social processes and governance weaknesses in disaster-prone areas and is usually related to a set of factors of fragility, suscep...
The purpose of the RIOCCADAPT report is to assess the climate change adaptation actions being carried out in the member countries of the Red Iberoamericana de Oficinas de Cambio Climático (Ibero-American Network of Climate Change Offices or RIOCC), i.e., Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking countries in the Americas, the Caribbean, and the Iberian Peni...
Disaster risk management and climate change adaptation are integrated, interinstitutional, multisectoral, and interdisciplinary processes. They generally give rise to public policies with the same goals. It is not very appropriate to refer to slope instability or landslide adaptation in a general sense without alluding to disaster risk management....
Español/ Português
El Informe RIOCCADAPT, Adaptación frente a los riegos del cambio climático en los países de la Red Iberoamericana de Oficinas de Cambio Climático (RIOCC), conformada por los países de lengua española y portuguesa de América, islas del Caribe y la Península Ibérica, es una iniciativa pionera financiada por el Programa ARAUCLIMA d...
Disaster risk is not only associated with the occurrence of intense hazard events but also with the vulnerability conditions that facilitate disasters when such events occur. Vulnerability is closely linked to social processes and governance weaknesses in disaster-prone areas, and is usually related to a set of fragilities, susceptibilities, and is...
http://rioccadapt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/11_Cap_11_CambioClimatico.pdf
La gestión del riesgo de desastres y la adaptación al cambio
climático son procesos de carácter integral, interinstitucional,
multisectorial e interdisciplinar. En general, dan
lugar a políticas públicas que tienen los mismos objetivos.
No es muy apropiado hablar de ada...
El Informe RIOCCADAPT tiene por objetivo evaluar las actuaciones
sobre adaptación al cambio climático que se están llevando a cabo en los países de la Red Iberoamericana de Oficinas de Cambio Climático (RIOCC), esto es, los países de lengua española y portuguesa de América, islas del Caribe y la Península Ibérica. El análisis de la adaptación se ha...
La gestión del riesgo de desastres y la adaptación al cambio climático son procesos de carácter integral, interinstitucional, multisectorial e interdisciplinar. En general, dan lugar a políticas públicas que tienen los mismos objetivos. No es muy apropiado hablar de adaptación frente a la inestabilidad de laderas —o también frente a los deslizamien...
A methodology to define rainfall-landslide thresholds, using a probabilistic model in which the accumulated rainfall at any time is treated as a random variable, is proposed. The region under study is divided into areas of homogeneous rain hazard. For each homogeneous area, a probability model is fitted using state-of-the-art statistical methods, f...
Authors discuss school safety and disaster education in Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica and Puerto Rico. Case studies explore work to increase understanding of natural hazards and disaster preparedness. Puerto Rico offers innovative examples of reflection on memories of Hurricane Maria by primary students and university unde...
Gestión del riesgo y adaptación en Manizales: Una estrategia de desarrollo para lograr que una ciudad en transición sea resiliente, sostenible y competitiva Abstract El riesgo de desastres es un problema que ha venido en aumento y en pocas décadas se ha convertido en una realidad preocupante. El desastre es la materialización de un riesgo mal manej...
El riesgo de desastres es un problema que ha venido en aumento y en pocas
décadas se ha convertido en una realidad preocupante. El desastre es la materialización
de un riesgo mal manejado. La gestión del riesgo, en muchas
partes del mundo, es la gran ausente en la planificación del desarrollo. Sin
embargo, la ciudad de Manizales, Colombia, se ha po...
Recientemente se ha publicado la última versión del programa CRISIS, una herramienta mundialmente reconocida y aceptada para la evaluación probabilista del peligro sísmico. Esta nueva versión, denominada R-CRISIS, es el resultado de 33 años continuos de desarrollo y actualizaciones en el campo de la ingeniería sísmica e incluye una serie de adicion...
Durante los últimos 15 años se han desarrollado numerosas evaluaciones probabilistas de amenaza sísmica en América Latina y el Caribe, aunque la mayoría de ellas se han realizado considerando las necesidades de un único país. Este trabajo presenta un modelo probabilista de amenaza sísmica que ha sido desarrollado con un enfoque homogéneo y que abar...
A methodology for the development of fully probabilistic seismic risk assessments on water and sewage networks is presented in this paper together with a case study for the system of Manizales, Colombia. These kinds of assessments require the development of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, the consideration of local site-effects, when relevan...
Among the activities developed under the framework of the Global Earthquake Model, the development of a global consequences database was included. This was defined with the objective of serving as public repository of damages and losses, occurred on different types of elements because of a selected list of earthquakes with epicentres at varying loc...
El Atlas tiene como objetivo dar a conocer diversos estudios y avances en relación con la evaluación de las diferentes amenazas de origen natural y tecnológico, desarrollados por entidades públicas y privadas en el país; así como también dar a conocer resultados de la evaluación probabilista del riesgo para diferentes amenazas, basados en métricas...
A dynamic response model for soft soils has been developed for Bogotá through the application of a modern methodology which is based on the geometry of the geologic formations. A tridimensional geometric model of the city's subsoil is constructed based on the geologic interpretation of the formations present, defining the elevation (above sea level...
The open source software CAPRA (Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment) has been used for more than 10 years. It is an ongoing initiative that has been developed in different phases with the financial support, in the beginning, of the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank and the UNISDR. The goal, 10 years ago, was to imp...
This work presents the development of a system for the automatic evaluation of damage after an earthquake in the city of Bogotá. The Laboratory of Automatic Seismic Instrumentation (LISA in Spanish: Laboratorio de Instrumentación Sísmica Automática) was established with the aim of bolstering the management of seismic risk in Bogotá, particularly re...
Using the probabilistic and holistic approach of the CAPRA platform to assess seismic risk at the urban level, the decision-making process to reduce different dimensions of vulnerability and increase local resilience from an integral and inter-institutional perspective is described. The risk assessment methodology has been developed and applied to...
Strong motion modeling from kinematic source models can be divided into three main approaches: integral, composite and stochastic. In the integral approach, the propagation of the rupture is assumed to be a k-square pulse. This approach appropriately represents the low frequency regions of the Fourier amplitude spectrum of the strong motion, mainly...
The CAPRA risk modeling platform was released in 2008, as an open-source suite of programs specialized in hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment. Here we present a latest version of the platform, totally renewed and delinked from its original funding effort. This version is comprised by 14 different software modules, specialized in hazard, expos...
Disaster risk is not only associated with the occurrence of intense hazard events but also with the vulnerability conditions that facilitate disasters when such events occur. Vulnerability is closely linked to social processes and governance weaknesses in disaster-prone areas, and is usually related to a set of fragilities, susceptibilities, and is...
Building codes usually establish the earthquake design coefficients by setting accelerations associated to a fixed return period. This is also generally obtained by probabilistic seismic hazard analysis approaches given the series of uncertainties that exist in the earthquake occurrence process which provide the intensity exceedance rates from wher...
Several probabilistic seismic hazard analyses have been performed in most countries of the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region during the past 15 years but, most of them have been developed for specific needs of a single country. This work presents a complete, continuous, homogeneous and comprehensive PSHA that includes all the countries where...
The goal of this evaluation is to improve the understanding of the Urban Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) programming carried out in Latin America and The Caribbean, and supported by the United States Agency for International Development's Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA). The study focused on eight DRR projects awarded by USAID...
El objetivo de esta evaluación es mejorar la comprensión del Programa de Reducción del Riesgo de Desastres (RRD) Urbano llevado a cabo en Latinoamérica y el Caribe (LAC), y apoyado por la Oficina de los Estados Unidos de Asistencia para Desastres en el Extranjero de la Agencia para el Desarrollo Internacional (USAID/OFDA). El estudio se enfocó en o...
Disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change considering economic, social, and environment issues, are the objectives of an integrated, interdisciplinary and multi-sectoral disaster risk management. Sustainability and transformation of development are only possible if there is a suitable strategy of vulnerability reduction and resilienc...
El riesgo de desastres es uno de los problemas contemporáneos del desarrollo que ha venido en aumento y se ha convertido en una preocupante realidad en un lapso de unas pocas décadas. Es el resultado de crecimiento urbano en áreas peligrosas, de construcciones con insuficiente capacidad para resistir eventos naturales, de ausencia de sistemas de al...
The details of a multi-hazard and probabilistic risk assessment, developed for urban planning and emergency response activities in Manizales, Colombia, are presented in this article. This risk assessment effort was developed under the framework of an integral disaster risk management project whose goal was to connect risk reduction activities by us...
A fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment was developed in Manizales, Colombia, considering assets of different types. The first type includes elements that are part of the water and sewage network, and the second type includes public and private buildings. This assessment required the development of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that...
Disaster risk depends on both the physical vulnerability and a wide range of social, economic, and environmental aspects of a society. For a better risk understanding, a holistic or integrated perspective was considered when risk was assessed for the city of Manizales, Colombia. This assessment accounts not only for the expected physical damage and...
Se presenta la evaluación del riesgo sísmico en Chile y Argentina, siguiendo un enfoque probabilista,
con el objetivo de determinar el perfil de riesgo catastrófico de ambos países. Un modelo
de amenaza regional fue definido con base en la caracterización del proceso de subducción, los
sistemas de fallamiento intraplaca localizados, un catálogo sis...
It is common practice to define the seismic design coefficients for earthquake resistant building codes by choosing a fixed return period, leaving aside considerations about structural vulnerability and acceptable risk levels. This paper reviews the theory of the optimum design, introduced from almost the beginning of the formal probabilistic seism...
Los reglamentos de construcción establecen, generalmente, los valores de los coeficientes de diseño sismo resistente mediante la selección de un período de retorno fijo. Estos resultados se obtienen a partir de evaluaciones probabilistas de la amenaza sísmica que dan cuenta de las incertidumbres que existen durante el proceso de ocurrencia de terre...
A loss and damage assessment was performed for the buildings of Lorca, Spain, considering an earthquake hazard scenario with similar characteristics to those of a real event which occurred on May 11th 2011, in terms of epicentre, depth and magnitude while also considering the local soil response. This low-to moderate earthquake caused severe damage...
A fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment was performed on the water and sanitation network of Manizales, which is operated by Aguas de Manizales. The assessment required the development of a seismic hazard assessment at bedrock level considering local sources which was complemented by the incorporation of several spectral transfer functions to...
One of the projects of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) was to develop a global earthquake consequences database (GEMECD) which served both to be an open and public repository of damages and losses on different types of elements at global level and also as a benchmark for the development of vulnerability models that could capture specific characte...
According to the Colombian national building code NSR‐10, the cities of Bogotá and Medellín have the same seismic design coefficients A a and A v that, on a first glance, would indicate the same seismic hazard level. However, the selection of the design mean return period corresponds to an arbitrary decision and equal values for said coefficients i...
Understanding and evaluating disaster risk due to natural hazard events such as earthquakes creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to reduce potential damages. The use of models for earthquake risk evaluation allows obtaining outputs such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probabl...
Medellín is the second largest city of Colombia with more than 2 million inhabitants according to the latest
census and with more than 240,000 public and private buildings. It is located on an intermediate seismic
hazard area according to the seismic zonation of Colombia although no destructive earthquakes have
occurred having as a consequence low...
