Olivier Boucher

Olivier Boucher
Sorbonne Université | UPMC · Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL)

PhD, HdR

About

505
Publications
145,539
Reads
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55,582
Citations
Additional affiliations
June 2011 - present
French National Centre for Scientific Research
Position
  • Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique
March 2005 - June 2011
Met Office
Description
  • Head of team

Publications

Publications (505)
Article
Full-text available
Since the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR5) an extended concept of the energetic analysis of climate change including forcings, feedbacks and adjustment processes has become widely adopted. Adjustments are defined as processes that occur in response to the introduction of a climate forcing agent, but that...
Article
Full-text available
Temperature and water vapor are known to fluctuate on multiple scales. In this study 27 years of airborne measurements of temperature and relative humidity from In‐service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) are used to parameterize the distribution of water vapor in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The parameterization is d...
Article
Full-text available
One of the proposed ways to reduce the climate impact of civil aviation is rerouting aircraft to minimise the formation of warming contrails. As this strategy may increase fuel consumption, it would only be beneficial if the climate impact reduction from the avoided contrails exceeds the negative impact of any additional carbon dioxide (CO2) emitte...
Preprint
Full-text available
Methane is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas causing warming after carbon dioxide, and the emission reductions potentials are known to be limited due to the difficulty of abating agricultural methane. We explore in this study the emerging option of atmospheric methane removal (MR) that could complement carbon dioxide removal (C...
Preprint
Full-text available
Solar radiation modification (SRM) aims to artificially cool the Earth, counteracting warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gases by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. One SRM strategy is stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), which mimics explosive volcanoes by injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. There are concerns that SAI coul...
Preprint
Full-text available
Reducing emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases complements CO2 mitigation in limiting global warming. However, estimating carbon-climate feedback for these gases remains fraught with uncertainties, especially under overshoot scenarios. This study investigates how CO2 and non-CO2 gases with nearly equal effective radiative forcing magnitudes impact...
Article
Full-text available
In every Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment cycle, a multitude of scenarios are assessed, with different scope and emphasis throughout the various Working Group reports and special reports, as well as their respective chapters. Within the reports, the ambition is to integrate knowledge on possible climate futures across the...
Preprint
Full-text available
As air traffic rebounds from its large drop during the Covid-19 crisis, civil aviation needs to continue addressing its climate impact. Knowledge of aircraft trajectories is essential for an accurate assessment of the CO2 (and non-CO2) climate impact of aviation. Here we combine an aircraft trajectory optimization algorithm and a global database of...
Article
Full-text available
Relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) is a key variable in the formation of cirrus clouds and contrails. We document its probability density function (PDF) using long-term Measurements of Ozone, Water Vapour, Carbon Monoxide and Nitrogen Oxides by In-Service Airbus Aircraft (MOZAIC) and the In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (I...
Article
Full-text available
The contrail formation potential as well as its temporal and spatial distribution is estimated using meteorological conditions of temperature and relative humidity from the ERA5 re-analysis provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Contrail formation is estimated with the Schmidt–Appleman criterion (SAc), solely considerin...
Article
Full-text available
The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) has proposed multiple model experiments during phases 5 and 6 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), with the latest set of model experiments proposed in 2015. With phase 7 of CMIP in preparation and with multiple efforts ongoing to better explore the potential space of outcome...
Article
Full-text available
Plain Language Summary Contrail cirrus is produced by aircraft and perturb the energy budget of the Earth. However, the actual size of the perturbation is uncertain. In this study, we calculate the energy budget perturbation of two successive contrail‐cirrus outbreaks over Western Europe from 22–23 June 2020. An infrared image composite allows the...
Preprint
Full-text available
One of the proposed ways to reduce the climate impact of civil aviation is rerouting aircraft to minimise the formation of warming contrails. As this strategy may increase fuel consumption, it would only be beneficial if the climate impact reduction from the avoided contrails exceeds the negative impact of any additional carbon dioxide (CO2) emitte...
Preprint
Full-text available
Parties to the Paris Agreement will revise their Nationally Determined Contributions following the first Global Stocktake concluded in December 2023. To assess the impact of potential future climate pledges, we propose a simple, transparent framework for developing emission and temperature scenarios by country. We show that current pledges with unc...
Preprint
Full-text available
The contrail formation potential as well as its temporal and spatial distribution are estimated using meteorological conditions of temperature and relative humidity from the ERA5 re-analysis provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Contrail formation is estimated with the Schmidt–Appleman criterion (SAc), solely consideri...
Preprint
Full-text available
Relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) is a key variable in the formation of cirrus clouds and contrails. We document its probability density function (PDF) using long-term Measurement of Ozone and water vapour on Airbus aircraft In-service programme (MOZAIC) and the In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) observations over t...
Article
Full-text available
Both full-fledged Earth system models (ESMs) and simple climate models (SCMs) have been used to investigate climate change for future representative CO2 concentration pathways under the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here, we explore to what extent complex and simple models are consistent in their carbon cycle response in...
Article
Full-text available
Natural cirrus clouds and contrails cover about 30 % of the Earth's mid-latitudes and up to 70 % of the tropics. Due to their widespread occurrence, cirrus clouds have a considerable impact on the Earth energy budget, which, on average, leads to a warming net radiative effect (solar + thermal infrared). However, whether the instantaneous radiative...
Preprint
Full-text available
The skill of the atmospheric reanalysis ERA5 from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) at simulating upper atmospheric temperature and relative humidity is assessed by using five years of In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) observations. IAGOS flight trajectories are used to extract co-located meteoro...
Preprint
Full-text available
The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) has proposed multiple model experiments during the phases 5 and 6 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), with the latest set of model experiment proposed in 2015. With phase 7 of CMIP in preparation, and with multiple efforts ongoing to better explore the potential space of out...
Preprint
Full-text available
An inconsistent prediction of aerosol species distribution over the Indian subcontinent has so far limited our understanding of their potential linkages to Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) measurements inferred spatial modulations (weakening and strengthening) of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall. Our study shows that the modelled aero...
Preprint
Full-text available
In every IPCC Assessment cycle, a multitude of scenarios are assessed, with different scope and emphasis throughout the various Working Group and Special Reports and their respective chapters. Within the reports, the ambition is to integrate knowledge on possible climate futures across the Working Groups and scientific research domains based on a s...
Article
Full-text available
Airlines optimize flight trajectories in order to minimize their operational costs, of which fuel consumption is a large contributor. It is known that flight trajectories are not fuel-optimal because of airspace congestion and restrictions, safety regulations, bad weather and other operational constraints. However, the extent to which trajectories...
Article
Full-text available
The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) allows estimates of effective radiative forcing (ERF) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six (CMIP6). We analyze the RFMIP output, including the new experiments from models that use the same parameterization for anthropogenic aerosols (RFMIP‐SpAer), to characterize and bett...
Article
Full-text available
As the world struggles to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C below pre-industrial temperatures, research into solar climate interventions that could temporarily offset some amount of greenhouse gas-driven global warming by reflecting more sunlight back out to space has gained prominence. These solar climate intervention techniques would aim to cool the E...
Article
Full-text available
Carbon dioxide removal is essential for achieving the Paris Agreement targets. Here we compare bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation and reforestation in terms of their carbon removal potentials and impacts on carbon cycle and surface climate under an overshoot pathway using Earth System Model simulations. Althought in...
Article
Full-text available
With the urgent need to implement the EU countries pledges and to monitor the effectiveness of Green Deal plan, Monitoring Reporting and Verification tools are needed to track how emissions are changing for all the sectors. Current official inventories only provide annual estimates of national CO2 emissions with a lag of 1+ year which do not captur...
Article
Full-text available
Land surface models (LSMs) use the atmospheric grid as their basic spatial decomposition because their main objective is to provide the lower boundary conditions to the atmosphere. Lateral water flows at the surface on the other hand require a much higher spatial discretization as they are closely linked to topographic details. We propose here a me...
Article
Full-text available
The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) is a coordinating framework, started in 2010, that includes a series of standardized climate model experiments aimed at understanding the physical processes and projected impacts of solar geoengineering. Numerous experiments have been conducted, and numerous more have been proposed as “test-...
Article
Full-text available
Reduced-complexity models, also called simple climate models or compact models, provide an alternative to Earth system models (ESMs) with lower computational costs, although at the expense of spatial and temporal information. It remains important to evaluate and validate these reduced-complexity models. Here, we evaluate a recent version (v3.1) of...
Preprint
Full-text available
Natural cirrus clouds and contrails cover about 30 % of the Earth's mid-latitudes and up to 70 % of its Tropics. Due to their widespread occurrence, cirrus have a considerable impact on the Earth energy budget, which, on average, leads to a warming net radiative effect (solar + thermal-infrared). However, whether the instantaneous radiative effect...
Article
Full-text available
The northern-high-latitude permafrost contains almost twice the carbon content of the atmosphere, and it is widely considered to be a non-linear and tipping element in the earth's climate system under global warming. Solar geoengineering is a means of mitigating temperature rise and reduces some of the associated climate impacts by increasing the p...
Article
Full-text available
Condensations trails (or contrails) that form behind aircraft have been of climatic interest for many years; yet, their radiative forcing is still uncertain. A number of studies estimate the radiative impact of contrails to be similar to, or even larger than, that of CO2 emitted by aviation. Hence, contrail mitigation may represent a significant op...
Preprint
Full-text available
Both full-fledged Earth System Models (ESMs) and simple climate models (SCMs) have been used to investigate climate change for future representative CO 2 concentration pathways under the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we explore to what extent complex and simple models are consistent in their carbon cycle response in...
Preprint
Full-text available
The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) is a coordinating framework, started in 2010, that includes a series of standardized climate model experiments aimed at understanding the physical processes and projected impacts of solar geoengineering. Numerous experiments have been conducted, and numerous more have been proposed as "testb...
Article
Full-text available
Nitrous oxide (N2O), a major greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting agent, is generated over land mostly from two key biochemical processes — nitrification and denitrification. Nitrifying and denitrifying N2O production occurs preferably under alternative oxic and anoxic conditions, which are closely linked with variations in water filled soil pores, a...
Article
Full-text available
Hydrogen is recognised as an important future energy vector for applications in many sectors. Hydrogen is an indirect climate gas which induces perturbations of methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapour, three potent greenhouse gases. Using data from a state-of-the-art global numerical model, here we calculate the hydrogen climate metrics as a...
Article
Full-text available
Cities in China are on the frontline of low-carbon transition which requires monitoring city-level emissions with low-latency to support timely climate actions. Most existing CO2 emission inventories lag reality by more than one year and only provide annual totals. To improve the timeliness and temporal resolution of city-level emission inventories...
Preprint
Full-text available
With the urgent need to implement the EU countries pledges and to monitor the effectiveness of Green Deal plan, Monitoring Reporting and Verification tools are needed to track how emissions are changing for all the sectors. Current official inventories only provide annual estimates of national CO$_2$ emissions with a lag of 1+ year which do not cap...
Article
Full-text available
Part of the economic recovery plans implemented by governments following COVID-19 is directed towards the energy transition. To understand the potential effects of these post-COVID green recovery packages on reductions of greenhouse gases emissions, we investigated three different approaches. Firstly, we analysed simulation results of Integrated As...
Preprint
Full-text available
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) plays an essential role in achieving the Paris Agreement targets. Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and Afforestation and reforestation (AR) are two widely-assumed CDR methods in future mitigation pathways. Here, we compare their CDR potentials and impacts on the land carbon cycle and surface climate by...
Article
Full-text available
Anthropogenic aerosols exert a cooling influence that offsets part of the greenhouse gas warming. Due to their short tropospheric lifetime of only several days, the aerosol forcing responds quickly to emissions. Here, we present and discuss the evolution of the aerosol forcing since 2000. There are multiple lines of evidence that allow us to robust...
Preprint
Full-text available
Land Surface Models (LSMs) use the atmospheric grid as their basic spatial decomposition because their main objective is to provide the lower boundary conditions to the atmosphere. Lateral water flows at the surface on the other hand require a much higher spatial discretization as they are closely linked to topographic details. We propose here a me...
Article
Full-text available
The potential of mitigation actions to limit global warming within 2 °C (ref. ¹) might rely on the abundant supply of biomass for large-scale bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) that is assumed to scale up markedly in the future2–5. However, the detrimental effects of climate change on crop yields may reduce the capacity of BECCS and...
Preprint
Full-text available
Condensations trails (or contrails) that form behind aircraft have been of climatic interest for many years. Yet their radiative forcing is still uncertain. A number of studies estimate the radiative impact of contrails to be similar or even larger than that of CO2 emitted by aviation. Hence, contrail mitigation may represent a significant opportun...
Article
Full-text available
Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these t...
Article
Full-text available
A large discrepancy between simulated and observed black carbon (BC) surface concentrations over the densely populated Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) has so far limited our ability to assess the magnitude of BC health impacts in terms of population exposure, morbidity, and mortality. We evaluate these impacts using an integrated modeling framework, incl...
Article
Full-text available
Day-to-day changes in CO2 emissions from human activities, in particular fossil-fuel combustion and cement production, reflect a complex balance of influences from seasonality, working days, weather and, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we provide a daily CO2 emissions dataset for the whole year of 2020, calculated from inventory and nea...
Preprint
Full-text available
The northern high-latitude permafrost contains almost twice the carbon content of the atmosphere, and it is widely considered as a non-linear and tipping element in the Earth's climate system under global warming. Solar geoengineering is a means of mitigating temperature rise and reduce some of the associated climate impacts by increasing the plane...
Article
Full-text available
Urban areas are a high-stake target of climate change mitigation and adaptation measures. To understand, predict, and improve the energy performance of cities, the scientific community develops numerical models that describe how they interact with the atmosphere through heat and moisture exchanges at all scales. In this review, we present recent ad...
Article
Full-text available
Climate simulations often need to be adjusted before carrying out impact studies at a regional scale. Technically, bias adjustment methods are generally calibrated over the last few decades, in order to benefit from a more comprehensive and accurate observational network. At these timescales, however, the climate state may be influenced by the low-...
Article
Full-text available
It has been claimed that COVID-19 public stimulus packages could be sufficient to meet the short-term energy investment needs to leverage a shift toward a pathway consistent with the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement. Here, we provide complementary perspectives to reiterate that substantial, broad, and sustained policy efforts beyond stimulus pa...
Preprint
Full-text available
Anthropogenic aerosols exert a cooling influence that offsets part of the greenhouse gas warming. Due to their short tropospheric lifetime of only up to several days, the aerosol forcing responds quickly to emissions. Here we present and discuss the evolution of the aerosol forcing since 2000. There are multiple lines of evidence that allow to robus...
Article
Full-text available
Stringent mitigation pathways frame the deployment of second-generation bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) to generate negative CO2 emissions. This bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) technology facilitates the achievement of the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. Here, we use five state-of-the-art Earth system mo...