Oleksandr Shepotylo

• PhD
• Senior Lecturer at Aston University

This paper investigates spatial determinants of FDI location. In particular, FDI in neighboring countries and foreign market potential are two variables it focuses on. The sample includes a panel of 27 transition countries in 1993-2007. The spatial links are found positive and economically large. Omitting spatial FDI leads to a serious misspecifica...

This paper brings new evidence on the impact of services liberalization on performance of manufacturing firms. Using a unique database of Ukrainian firms in 2001-2007, we utilize an external push for liberalization in services sector as a source of exogenous variation to identify the impact of services liberalization on total factor productivity (T...

This paper develops a methodology for trade policy analysis of costs and benefits of alternative regional integration scenarios. The methodology is based on the disaggregated gravity equation, which is applied to calculate the impact of the EU enlargement on integration strategies of non-member countries. In particular, the paper measures the impac...

The authors use a computable general equilibrium comparative static model of the Russian economy to assess the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on income distribution and the poor. Their model is innovative in that they incorporate all 55,000 households from the Russian Household Budget Survey as"real"households in the mode...

We examine spatial spillovers between countries in the development of institutions. Our dependent variables are three measures of institutions that relate to politics, law, and governmental administration. The major explanatory variable on which we focus is a spatial lag of the dependent variable, that is, the level of similar institutions in borde...

This paper examines the impact of Brexit-related uncertainty on the UK’s trade in services, with a focus on how different types of international business policy uncertainty (IBPU) influence export participation and intensity. Leveraging a novel conceptual framework, we integrate multiple layers of uncertainty—including regulatory, legal, and market...

This study investigates the impact of Brexit uncertainty on the UK's services sector trade from 2016 to 2019 revealing a statistically significant negative impact that varied across sectors and destinations. Using the OECD-WTO Balanced Trade in Services dataset and synthetic difference in differences methodology, the findings indicate an annual sho...

The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union has resulted in a notable rise in trade costs between these two parties, even though the new trading relationship established a tariff- and quota-free trade in goods between the UK and the EU. Employing the synthetic control difference-in-difference methodology, we empirically establish t...

The creative industries in the UK are a vibrant, fast growing, and innovative part of the economy. Not only do they generate many jobs and add significant economic value, parts of the sector can also produce social value for the nation and its regions. This study takes a first step in using the available data to quantify the Brexit impact on the UK...

This paper assesses the effect of Brexit implemented through the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement on UK trade. Using COMTRADE data for the period of 2019 up to 2022Q1, and the method of synthetic difference-in-differences (SDID), we build a counterfactual UK that did not experience the change in its trade relationships with the EU. We show tha...

This paper evaluates the trade and welfare implications of further East Asian trade integration, through the signing of the China-Japan-Korea FTA, and continued trade tensions between the US and China. Our analysis uses a structural gravity approach to explore the effects of these cooperative and non-cooperative trade policies. Our key findings are...

This paper offers a detailed review of the UK’s trade performance during the COVID-19 crisis and reflects on how this may be revived. During 2020, UK goods exports contracted more sharply than those of its international peers. Statistics suggest that UK had a deeper decline and slower recovery than Germany, Italy, Spain, and the US. Further, the tr...

Using detailed data on veterinary, ecological, sanitary, phytosanitary and mandatory certification measures, this paper studies the effect of non‐tariff measures (NTMs) on firm productivity in the food‐processing industry through forward and backward linkages. Using quantity and value of output at product level, we calculate and compare quantity‐ a...

This paper explores the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in terms of changes in trade costs on trade and consumer welfare in China, the EU, and the rest of the World. We employ a general equilibrium structural gravity approach and conduct a counterfactual analysis. Our key findings are as follows: (i) China and the EU are expected to m...

This paper demonstrates the welfare implications of the differential disintegration of the EU. Using a structural gravity approach, our estimates suggest that the rest of the EU countries have much more to lose from the disintegration of the EU compared to a disorderly Brexit. At the same time, neighbouring high‐income and middle‐income countries,...

Using quasi‐experimental data from a survey that was conducted immediately before and after the November 2016 presidential election, we analyze how the election of Donald Trump affected the willingness of Europeans to sign a trade and investment agreement with the United States. We find that the election outcome lead to an immediate and sizable neg...

This paper investigates the contemporaneous effect of conflict on civilians living outside of the conflict zone. Applying a multi-dimensional concept of well-being, it uses two large household surveys over 2012–2016 to analyze how the Russian-Ukrainian hybrid war affected the financial well-being and health of people in both countries. We find that...

Domestic non-tariff measures (NTM) influence firm’s production and import decisions. We introduce NTMs into a model with heterogeneous firms. NTMs increase the cost of production and play a role of a positive demand shifter. Interplay of these two factors leads to ambiguous impact of NTMs on extensive and intensive margins of trade. We test predict...

As the EU and UK negotiate a new relationship, this paper explores the welfare implications of this policy change and its interaction with major trade policy initiatives. We evaluate five Brexit scenarios, based on different assumptions regarding Brexit, TTIP and various free trade deals the UK may attempt to broker with the US or Commonwealth coun...

This paper employs a structural gravity approach to model the Chinese-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in terms of changes to trade costs and investment. We explore the impact of these changes on trade flows and consumer welfare in China, the EU and the rest of the World. Furthermore, we look at how these welfare changes compare to the gains fro...

This paper investigates the contemporaneous effect of the Russian-Ukrainian hybrid war on financial well-being and health of civilian population from both sides of the conflict. In this paper, we employ microdata from Ukrainian Household Budget Survey (UHBS) and Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS). We find that the conflict significantly...

This paper explores the effects of non-tariff measures (NTM) on extensive and intensive margins of global exports of seafood in 1996-2011. The main result of this study is the differential and opposite effect of SPS and TBT measures. While SPS measures largely increase extensive margins of export and reduce intensive margins, TBTs mostly reduce exp...

We document rich variation across observed firms’ characteristics, and the accompanying macroeconomic volatility, often related to political turmoil for Ukrainian manufacturing firms. We use a unique annual firm-level data for the period from 2001 to 2009 compiled from the Derzhkomstat. To understand the evolution of distributions we utilize functi...

We explore the effects of NTMs on extensive and intensive margins of export, focusing on seafood trade at various levels of aggregation. While SPS measures largely influence the variable trade costs, increasing extensive margins of export and reducing intensive margins, TBTs mostly increase fixed trade costs, reducing extensive margins of export an...

This paper looks at the effects of NTMs on export performance of firms in food-processing industry in Ukraine in 2001-2009. We focus on ecology, sanitary, phytosanitary, and veterinary measures, which are closely related to consumers' concerns about safety and quality of products. We investigate how NTMs within an industry influence probability and...

Over the last two decades import tariffs have declined significantly. Governments around the world increasingly use non-tariff measures as a substitute for the tariff protection. Little is known about their importance for and effect on international trade. Literature reports a positive effect of reduction in tariffs and services liberalization on p...

In this paper we use ten-digit trade data that allow an accurate assessment of how the tariff structure of the Russian Federation will change as a result of the phased implementation of its World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments between 2012 and 2020 and how it has changed as a result of Russia's agreement to participate in a customs union with...

This paper develops a methodology of evaluating trade potential under different integration scenarios using a panel of disaggregated exports. The methodology is applied to compare trade potential of Ukraine under three counterfactual scenarios: joining CU, signing FTA with EU, and joining EU. The analysis indicates that the current trade policy of...

After 18 years of negotiations, Russia has joined the World Trade Organization. This paper assesses how the tariff structure of the Russian Federation will change as a result of the phased implementation of its World Trade Organization commitments between 2012 and 2020 and how it has changed as a result of its agreement to participate in a Customs...

This paper brings new evidence on the impact of services liberalization on the performance of manufacturing firms. Using a unique database of Ukrainian firms in 2001-2007, the authors utilize an external push for liberalization in the services sector as a source of exogenous variation to identify the impact of services liberalization on total facto...

Despite the importance of geographical and product diversification of exports, this question has not got enough attention in the literature. We look at country and product diversification of exports from Eastern Europe (EE) and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), two groups of countries that both substantially increased trade openness since t...

Cities in transition face a unique set of challenges that came forth due to interplay of the legacy of socialist urban policies and transition to the market economy. The socialist urban policies restrained growth of the largest cities and distorted the spatial equilibrium towards more uniform distribution of urban population. The transition to the...

This paper analyzes whether the three-point rule in soccer brought more action to the game for a large sample of European championships in 1990-1997, revealing team-specic heterogeneity of responses caused by differences in team tactics in the period prior to the rule change. Teams that relied more heavily on tie-intensive tactics dramatically chan...

This paper applies a two stage estimation procedure that accounts for a sample-selection bias and firm-level heterogeneity in order to estimate a gravity model of exports at industry level of aggregation for 119 exporting countries and 142 importing countries in 2002-2006. It further projects the estimation results on nine CIS countries in order to...

The paper investigates the costs and benefits of 2004 EU enlargement from the standpoint of Ukraine - a country that has been left behind. This angle allows estimating the costs of non-integration that occurred due to trade diversion and forgone opportunity to carry our structural changes in the Ukrainian economy. According to the results, even tho...

Arguably, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries are not as integrated into the world markets as the EU countries or South-East Asian countries. Trade flows of the CIS countries are not well diversified both in terms of trading partners as well as in terms of composition of exports. In order to compare the degree of export diversifi...

This paper applies a nonparametric heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) estimator of error terms in the context of the spatial autoregressive model of GDP per capita convergence of European regions at NUTS 2 level. By introducing the spatial dimension, it looks at how the equilibrium distribution of GDP per capita of EU regions e...

The Russian tariff structure contains over 11,000 tariff lines. Of these, a specific tariff may apply for about 1,700. Due to a new data set, this is the first paper to accurately assess tariff rates. We find that the average tariff in Russia has increased between 2001 and 2003, from about 11.5 percent to between 13 percent and 14.5 percent, but he...

The Russian tariffstructure contains over 11,000 tariff lines of which about 1,700 use the so-called"combined"tariff rate system. For the combined system tariff lines, the actual tariff applied by Russian customs is the maximum of the ad valorem or specific tariff. The lack of available data and the difficulty in calculating the ad valorem equivale...

The Russian tariff structure contains over 11,000 tariff lines, of which, about 1,700 use the so called "combined" tariff rate system. For the combined system tariff lines, the actual tariff applied by Russian customs is the maximum of the ad valorem or specific tariff. The lack of available data and the difficulty in calculating the ad valorem equ...

Abstract Astandard,neoclassical model ,of growth ,predicts convergence ,of income ,levels across countries and geographical regions. Recent empi rical evidence, however, has shown that the gap between,rich and poor countries has increased over,the last thirty years. One of the key regularities that are at odds with the neoclassical theory is the la...

In the middle of the 1990s, the European soccer body UEFA recommended to the National Soccer Federations that they should reward three points for a win instead of two points as under the old regulations. Soon, this new system was universally adopted by all countries. The purpose of this change in the rules was to encourage a more attractive attacki...

Taking price changes from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model of world trade, the authors use a small open economy computable general equilibrium comparative static model of the Russian economy to assess the impact of global free trade and a successful completion of the Doha Agenda on the Russian economy, and especially on the poor. They...