Nils Chr. Stenseth

Nils Chr. Stenseth
University of Oslo · Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis

Professor

About

976
Publications
228,276
Reads
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51,214
Citations
Additional affiliations
October 2007 - present
University of Oslo
Position
  • Chair

Publications

Publications (976)
Article
Temperature profoundly affects ectotherm physiology. Although differential thermal responses influence fitness, thus driving population dynamics and species distributions, our understanding of the molecular architecture underlying these responses is limited, especially during the critical larval stage. Here, using RNA-sequencing of laboratory-reare...
Article
Climate is a major extrinsic factor affecting the population dynamics of many organisms. The Broad-Scale Climate Hypothesis (BSCH) was proposed by Elton to explain the large-scale synchronous population cycles of animals, but the extent of support and whether it differs among taxa and geographical regions is unclear. We reviewed publications examin...
Preprint
Full-text available
Objective As sequencing technologies become more accessible and bioinformatic tools improve, genomic resources are increasingly available for non-model species. Using a draft genome to guide transcriptome assembly from RNA sequencing data, rather than performing assembly de novo , affects downstream analyses. Yet, direct comparisons of these approa...
Article
Full-text available
Despite a substantial number of COVID‐19 related research papers published, it remains unclear as to which factors are associated with the observed variation in global transmission and what are their relative levels of importance. This study applies a rigorous statistical framework to provide robust estimations of the factor effects for a global an...
Article
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Ideally, the practice of science stays independent, informs policy in real time, and facilitates learning. However, when large uncertainties go unreported or are not effectively communicated, science can, inadvertently, facilitate inappropriate politics.This unfortunate circumstance has likely occurred in the case of India’s official tiger (Panther...
Data
Here we propose a classification of age-structured populations according to two features: (1) sensitivity to changes in the intensity of environmental fluctuations and (2) sensitivity to changes in the spectrum of environmental fluctuations.
Data
Numerical demonstration of the phenomenon of stock resonance in an age-structured population
Data
Glossary Transfer function: a continuous function, defined in the frequency domain, that relates the environment-driven fluctuations in demographic parameters (of a specific frequency) to population variations. Variability: the doubled integral of the squared modulus of the transfer function over frequency domain, that quantifies overall effe...
Article
Full-text available
With open-access publishing authors often pay an article processing charge and subsequently their article is freely available online. These charges are beyond the reach of most African academics. Thus, the trend towards open-access publishing will shift the business model from a pay-wall model, where access to literature is limited, to a pay-to-pub...
Article
Full-text available
Emerging infectious diseases are one of the greatest public health challenges. Approximately three-quarters of these diseases are of animal origin. These diseases include classical zoonoses maintained in humans only via transmission from other vertebrates (e.g., rabies) and those initiated by a successful one-off zoonotic event (host-switch) in con...
Article
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Background The influence of rising global temperatures on malaria dynamics and distribution remains controversial, especially in central highland regions. We aimed to address this subject by studying the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of malaria and the effect of climate change on malaria transmission over 27 years in Hainan, an island province in Ch...
Article
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Fluctuations in wild fish populations result from interaction between population dynamics and environmental forcing. Age‐structured populations can magnify or dampen particular frequencies of these fluctuations, depending on life cycle and species traits. The transfer function (TF) gives a detailed analytical description of these phenomena. In this...
Article
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The influenza virus mutates and spreads rapidly, making it suitable for studying evolutionary and ecological processes. The ecological factors and processes by which different lineages of influenza compete or coexist within hosts through time and across geographical space are poorly known. We hypothesized that competition would be stronger for infl...
Article
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Significance Ecological disruption due to human impacts is evident worldwide, and a key to mitigation lies in characterizing the underlying mechanisms of species and ecosystem stability. Here we show that three extensive “supergenes” are maintained in Atlantic cod by stabilizing selection, tying these genes to the persistence of a keystone species...
Article
Forest loss and degradation are the most significant threats to terrestrial biodiversity in the tropics. Promoting flagship or umbrella species is a strategy that can be used to conserve intact forests and restore degraded ecosystems, conserve biodiversity, and achieve sustainable development goals. The Bale monkey (Chlorocebus djamdjamensis) is an...
Article
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The Ethiopian highlands is the largest Afroalpine habitat on the African continent contributing 80 % of the land above 3,000 masl on the continent. The Ethiopian highlands are part of Conservation International's Eastern Afro-Montane Biodiversity Hotspot supporting a large number of endemic mammal and bird species. In the highlands, rodent species...
Article
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Collared lemmings (Dicrostonyx) are cold adapted rodents, keystone animals in the tundra communities and the model taxa in studies of Arctic genetic diversity and Quaternary paleontology. We examined mitochondrial and nuclear genomic variation to reconstruct phylogenetic relationships among the Eurasian D. torquatus and North American D. groenlandi...
Article
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Although selecting advantageous sleeping sites is crucial for nonhuman primates, the extent to which different factors contribute to their selection remains largely unknown for many species. We investigated hypotheses relating to predator avoidance, food access, and thermoregulation to explain the sleeping behavior of Bale monkeys ( Chlorocebus dja...
Article
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The plague of 1630–1632 was one of the deadliest plague epidemics to ever hit Northern Italy, and for many of the affected regions, it was also the last. While accounts on plague during the early 1630s in Florence and Milan are frequent, much less is known about the city of Imola. We analyzed the full skeletal assemblage of four mass graves (n = 13...
Article
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Swayne's hartebeest Alcelaphus buselaphus swaynei was once widely distributed in the Horn of Africa. By the early 20th century, however, it was extirpated across most of its range and is now limited to two relict populations in the Ethiopian Rift Valley and categorized as Endangered on the IUCN Red List. In this study, we estimated the size and gen...
Article
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Behavioral responses in wildlife due to human activities may often go unnoticed but have significant effects on population viability. This is a particular concern with endangered species characterized by small population sizes. From June 2016 to May 2017, we measured the effects of human activities on daily the activity budget and home range size o...
Chapter
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Pastoralism is a globally -important livelihood, with large social, environmental and economic importance across much of our planet. Yet, it is also a vulnerable practice with widespread crises, urgently calling for better systemic understanding. The current disciplinary compartmentalization of research not only hampers this but allows perpetuation...
Article
Ongoing climate change threatens biodiversity and directly affects the stability of plant-animal communities. However, it is unclear how the species diversity of biological communities responds to natural climate warming, and whether the temporal stability of biodiversity in the face of climate warming varies with environmental gradients in differe...
Preprint
With open-access publishing authors pay an article processing charge and subsequently their article is freely available online. These charges are beyond the reach of most African academics. Thus, the trend towards open access publishing will shift the business model from a pay-wall model, where access to literature is limited, to a pay-to-publish o...
Preprint
Full-text available
Ensuring a more equitable distribution of vaccines worldwide is an effective strategy to control the COVID-19 pandemic and support global economic recovery. Here, we analyze the socioeconomic effects - defined as health gains, lockdown-easing benefit, and supply-chain rebuilding benefit - of a set of idealized vaccine distribution scenarios, by cou...
Article
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The number of COVID-19 confirmed cases rapidly grew since the SARS-CoV-2 virus was identified in late 2019. Due to the high transmissibility of this virus, more countries are experiencing the repeated waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, with limited manufacturing and distribution of vaccines, control measures might still be the most critical m...
Article
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Significance Over the last few years, there has been a great deal of scientific debate regarding whether the plague bacterium, Yersinia pestis , spread from a Western European reservoir during the second plague pandemic, or if it repeatedly came to Europe from Asia. Here, we make a synthesis of the available evidence, including genomes of ancient D...
Article
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Background Vaccination has the proven effectiveness in reducing disease burden. As the emergency program is moving towards completion in many countries, there is a new urgency to appropriately assess the societal health benefits in both the near and longer term. Methods Using an age-structured mathematical infection model, we evaluate the gains ac...
Article
Open access to the scholarly literature is crucial for African academics but, without urgent action, the move from paywall to pay-to-publish wall will continue to disenfranchise researchers. In an unpublished study, we looked at the 40 journals with the highest impact factors in our field (ecology), and found that the average article-processing c...
Article
Full-text available
Anticipating the medium-and long-term trajectory of pathogen emergence has acquired new urgency given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. For many human pathogens, the burden of disease depends on age and previous exposure. Understanding the intersection between human population demography and transmission dynamics is therefore critical. Here, we develo...
Article
Abstract Ethiopian shade coffee plantations are well documented to be bird-friendly and act as refuges for disappearing tree species. The extent to which these plantations support mammal conservation, as well as mammal sensitivity to coffee intensification, remain little studied. We studied the distribution and diversity of mammals under three coff...
Article
Full-text available
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has been characterized by unprecedented rates of spatio-temporal spread. Here, we summarize the main events in the pandemic's timeline and evaluate what has been learnt by the public health community. We also discuss the implications for future public health policy and, specifically...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The endangered Ashy red colobus monkey is rapidly declining mainly due to habitat loss and fragmentation. The largest subpopulation in the Ufipa Plateau is that of the protected Mbizi Forest. Between September 2015 and July 2017, we surveyed unprotected areas of the Ufipa plateau: Mbuzi Forest (comparing our results to those of a survey in 2006), C...
Article
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Significance The variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is important for the functioning of ecological and societal systems at regional to continental scales, but the long-term evolution and interannual variability of this system is not well understood. Here, we present a stable isotope–based reconstruction of ASM variability covering 4680 B...
Preprint
Full-text available
Anticipating the medium- and long-term trajectory of pathogen emergence has acquired new urgency given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. For many human pathogens the burden of disease depends on age and prior exposure. Understanding the intersection between human population demography and transmission dynamics is therefore critical. Here, we develop a...
Article
Full-text available
Populations of large mammals have declined at alarming rates, especially in areas with intensified land use where species can only persist in small habitat fragments. To support conservation planning, we developed habitat suitability models for the Walia ibex (Capra walie), an endangered wild goat endemic to the Simen Mountains, Ethiopia. We calibr...
Article
Full-text available
Ethiopian shade coffee plantations are well documented to be bird-friendly and act as refuges for disappearing tree species. The extent to which these plantations support mammal conservation, as well as mammal sensitivity to coffee intensification, remain little studied. We studied the distribution and diversity of mammals under three coffee manage...
Article
Full-text available
The development of vaccines has opened a way to lower the public health and societal burden of COVID-19 pandemic. To achieve sustainable gains in the long term, switching the vaccination from one target group to a more diverse portfolio should be planned appropriately. We lay out a general mathematical framework for comparing alternative vaccinatio...
Article
Full-text available
Since COVID-19 spread globally in early 2020 and was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) in March, many countries are managing the local epidemics effectively through intervention measures that limit transmission. The challenges of immigration of new infections into regions and asymptomatic infections remain. Standard determi...
Article
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Background Until broad vaccination coverage is reached and effective therapeutics are available, controlling population mobility (ie, changes in the spatial location of a population that affect the spread and distribution of pathogens) is one of the major interventions used to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2. However, population mobility differs...
Article
Pastoralism is globally significant in social, environmental, and economic terms. However, it experiences crises rooted in misconceptions and poor interdisciplinary understanding, while being largely overlooked in international sustainability forums and agendas. Here, we propose a transdisciplinary research approach to understand pastoralist transi...
Article
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Marine phytoplankton play a central role in supporting life in the oceans and profoundly affect global biogeochemical cycles. Previous studies have revealed positive effects of sea‐surface temperature (SST) on phytoplankton in terms of chlorophyll a concentrations (Chla) in high latitude oceans, while negative effects prevail in tropical and midlat...
Preprint
The Second Plague Pandemic started in Europe with the Black Death in 1346 and lasted until the 19 th century. Based on ancient DNA studies, there is a scientific disagreement over whether the bacterium, Yersinia pestis , came into Europe once (Hypothesis 1), or repeatedly over the following four centuries (Hypothesis 2). Here we synthesize the most...
Article
Full-text available
Significance Both theory and experiments suggest that fishing can drive the evolution of an earlier maturation age. However, determining whether changes in the wild are the result of fisheries-induced evolution has been difficult. Temporal, genome-wide datasets can directly reveal responses to selection. Here, we investigate the genomes of two wild...
Article
Full-text available
Home range and activity patterns of animals are important elements for wildlife management and conservation practices. We examined seasonal home range and daily activity patterns of the endangered Swayne’s hartebeest (Alcelaphus buselaphus swaynei) in Maze National Park, Ethiopia. We tracked two groups of Swayne’s hartebeests in open grassland for...
Article
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Climate change may contribute to the spatio-temporal occurrence of disasters. Long-term studies of either homogeneous or heterogeneous responses of historical disasters to climate change are, however, limited by the quality and quantity of the available proxy data. Here we reconstruct spatio-temporal patterns of five types of disasters in China dur...
Preprint
The worldwide leaf economics spectrum relates leaf lifespan (LL) to leaf dry mass per unit area (LMA). By combining three well-supported principles, we show that an isometric relationship between these two quantities maximizes the leaf net carbon gain. This theory predicts a spectrum of equally competent LMA-LL combinations in any given environment...
Article
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Dietary responses to the habitat heterogeneity resulting from anthropogenic disturbance vary among primates. Some species alter their foraging strategy and continue to thrive in human-modified habitats while others are unable to modify their diets sufficiently to cope with such disturbance. Over a 12-mo period, we investigated the feeding ecology o...
Article
People with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cardiovascular disease, or hypertension have a high risk of developing severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and of COVID-19 mortality. However, the association between long-term exposure to air pollutants, which increases cardiopulmonary damage, and vulnerability to COVID-19 has not yet been...
Article
Plague has been known since ancient times as a re-emerging infectious disease, causing considerable socioeconomic burden in regional hotspots. To better understand the epidemiological cycle of the causative agent of the plague, its potential occurrence, and possible future dispersion, one must carefully consider the taxonomy, distribution, and ecol...
Article
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Biodiversity is essential for the maintenance of ecosystem health and delivery of the Sustainable Development Goals. However, the drivers of biodiversity loss and the spatial variation in their impacts are poorly understood. Here, we explore the spatial-temporal distributions of threatened and declining (“biodiversity-loss”) species and find that t...
Article
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Plague continued to afflict Europe for more than five centuries after the Black Death. Yet, by the 17th century, the dynamics of plague had changed, leading to its slow decline in Western Europe over the subsequent 200 y, a period for which only one genome was previously available. Using a multidisciplinary approach, combining genomic and historica...
Article
Full-text available
Significance The spread and evolution of plague have been under debate in the past few years. However, very little is known of the dynamics of the plague pathogen, Yersinia pestis , during the last phase of the Second Plague Pandemic in Europe (18th and 19th century). We present nine ancient Y. pestis genomes from the Second Plague Pandemic. CHE1 i...
Article
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Significance By linking seasonality of climate and changing human behavior, we demonstrate that collaboration on global efforts for prompt and intensive intervention is fundamental to coping with future pandemic waves of COVID-19. We propose that this collaboration can be started in locations with typically high population density and international...
Article
Full-text available
Yersinia pestis, the bacterial causative agent of plague, remains an important threat to human health. Plague is a rodent-borne disease that has historically shown an outstanding ability to colonize and persist across different species, habitats, and environments while provoking sporadic cases, outbreaks, and deadly global epidemics among humans. B...
Article
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In this paper, we establish the explicit connection between deterministic trait-based population-level models (in the form of partial differential equations) and species-level models (in the form of ordinary differential equations), in the context of eco-evolutionary systems. In particular, by starting from a population-level model of density distr...
Article
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Humanwildlife conflict presents major challenges to both wildlife managers and rural livelihoods. Here, we investigated humanwildlife conflict in and around Senkele Swayne's Hartebeest Sanctuary (SSHS). We estimated the densities of wild animals within SSHS and conducted questionnaire interviews about livestock predation and crop raiding patterns w...