Niels Andela

National Aeronautics and Space Administration · Biospheric Sciences Laboratory

Climate change increases fire-favorable weather in forests, but fire trends are also affected by multiple other controlling factors that are difficult to untangle. We use machine learning to systematically group forest ecoregions into 12 global forest pyromes, with each showing distinct sensitivities to climatic, human, and vegetation controls. Thi...

Climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society and the environment. However, our understanding of the global distribution of extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage and regionalised research efforts. This inaugural State of Wildfires report...

Climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society and the environment. However, our understanding of the global distribution of extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage and regionalised research efforts. This inaugural State of Wildfires report...

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society and the environment. However, our understanding of the global distribution of extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage and regional research concentration. This inaugural State of Wildfires report systemati...

Fires are a key component of the global carbon cycle and humans are changing their characteristics. Fire emission monitoring is important to keep track of those changes and TROPOMI satellite observations of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and the absorbing aerosol index can be used to quantify and verify the accuracy and precision of...

The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, even though originally developed and calibrated for an upland Jack pine forest, is used globally to estimate fire danger for any fire environment. However, for some environments, such as peatlands, the applicability of the FWI in its current form, is often questioned. In this study, we replaced the orig...

Long-term records of burned area are needed to understand wildfire dynamics, assess fire impacts on ecosystems and air quality, and improve fire forecasts. Here, we fuse multiple streams of remote sensing data to create a 24 year (1997–2020) dataset of monthly burned area as a component of the fifth version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GF...

Modeling the spread of wildland fires is essential for assessing and managing fire risks. However, this task remains challenging due to the partially stochastic nature of fire behavior and the limited availability of observational data with high spatial and temporal resolutions. Herein, we propose an attention-based deep learning modeling approach...

The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, even though originally developed and calibrated for an upland jack pine forest, is used globally to estimate fire danger for any fire environment. However, for some environments, such as peatlands, the applicability of the FWI in its current form, is often questioned. In this study, we replaced the orig...

Long-term records of burned area are needed to understand wildfire dynamics, assess fire impacts on ecosystems and air quality, and improve fire forecasts. Here we fuse multiple streams of remote sensing data to create a 24-year (1997–2020) dataset of monthly burned area as a component of the 5th version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED5...

Fires mediate grass and tree competition and alter vegetation structure in savanna ecosystems, with important implications for regional carbon, water, and energy fluxes. However, direct observations of how fire frequency influences vegetation structure and post‐fire recovery have been limited to small experimental field studies. Here, we combined l...

Madagascar's biota is hyperdiverse and includes exceptional levels of endemicity. We review the current state of knowledge on Madagascar's past and current terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity by compiling and presenting comprehensive data on species diversity, endemism, and rates of species description and human uses, in addition to presenting...

Madagascar's unique biota is heavily affected by human activity and is under intense threat. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the conservation status of Madagascar's terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity by presenting data and analyses on documented and predicted species-level conservation statuses, the most prevalent and relevan...

Fire activity is declining globally due to intensifying land management, but trends remain uncertain for the humid tropics, particularly Equatorial Asia. Here, we report that rates of fire events deemed severe (≥75th severity percentile of 2002-2019) and very severe (≥90th percentile) for Indonesia declined 19-27% and 23-34% over 2002-2019, respect...

Exceptional fire activity in 2019 sparked concern about Amazon forest conservation. However, the inability to rapidly separate satellite fire detections by fire type hampered fire suppression and assessment of ecosystem and air quality impacts. Here, we describe the development of a near–real-time approach for tracking contributions from deforestat...

Recent wildfire outbreaks around the world have prompted concern that climate change is increasing fire incidence, threatening human livelihood and biodiversity, and perpetuating climate change. Here, we review current understanding of the impacts of climate change on fire weather (weather conditions conducive to the ignition and spread of wildfire...

Changing wildfire regimes in the western US and other fire-prone regions pose considerable risks to human health and ecosystem function. However, our understanding of wildfire behavior is still limited by a lack of data products that systematically quantify fire spread, behavior and impacts. Here we develop a novel object-based system for tracking...

Narratives of landscape degradation are often linked to unsustainable fire use by local communities. Madagascar is a case in point: the island is considered globally exceptional, with its remarkable endemic biodiversity viewed as threatened by unsustainable anthropogenic fire. Yet, fire regimes on Madagascar have not been empirically characterised...

California has experienced a rapid increase in burned area over the past several decades. Although fire behavior is known to be closely tied to ecosystem impacts, most analysis of changing fire regimes has focused solely on area burned. Here we present a standardized database of wildfire behavior, including daily fire rate-of-spread and fire radiat...

The Pantanal, the largest contiguous wetland in the world with a high diversity of ecosystems and habitat for several endangered species, was impacted by record-breaking wildfires in 2020. In this study, we integrate satellite and modeling data that enable exploration of natural and human contributing factors to the unprecedented 2020 fires. We dem...

Atmospheric ammonia (NH3) is a precursor to fine particulate matter and a source of nitrogen (N) deposition that can adversely affect ecosystem health. The main sources of NH3 – agriculture and biomass burning – are undergoing are or expected to undergo substantial changes in Africa. Although evidence of increasing NH3 over parts of Africa has been...

Fires, among other forms of natural and anthropogenic disturbance, play a central role in regulating the location, composition and biomass of forests. Understanding the role of fire in global forest loss is crucial in constraining land‐use change emissions and the global carbon cycle. We analyzed the relationship between forest loss and fire at 500...

Abstract Fire emissions of gases and aerosols alter atmospheric composition and have substantial impacts on climate, ecosystem function, and human health. Warming climate and human expansion in fire‐prone landscapes exacerbate fire impacts and call for more effective management tools. Here we developed a global fire forecasting system that predicts...

Aim An emerging framework for tropical ecosystems states that fire activity is either “ fuel build‐up limited ” or “ fuel moisture limited ”, that is, as you move up along rainfall gradients, the major control on fire occurrence switches from being the amount of fuel, to the moisture content of the fuel. Here we used remotely sensed datasets to ass...

Natural and human-ignited fires affect all major biomes, altering ecosystem structure, biogeochemical cycles and atmospheric composition. Satellite observations provide global data on spatiotemporal patterns of biomass burning and evidence for the rapid changes in global fire activity in response to land management and climate. Satellite imagery al...

Recent climate changes have increased fire-prone weather conditions in many regions and have likely affected fire occurrence, which might impact ecosystem functioning, biogeochemical cycles, and society. Prediction of how fire impacts may change in the future is difficult because of the complexity of the controls on fire occurrence and burned area....

Recent climate changes increases fire-prone weather conditions and likely affects fire occurrence, which might impact ecosystem functioning, biogeochemical cycles, and society. Prediction of how fire impacts may change in the future is difficult because of the complexity of the controls on fire occurrence and burned area. Here we aim to assess how...

Natural and human-ignited fires affect all major biomes, altering ecosystem structure, biogeochemical cycles, and atmospheric composition. Satellite observations provide global data on spatiotemporal patterns of biomass burning and evidence for rapid changes in global fire activity in response to land management and climate. Satellite imagery also...

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a pronounced influence on year-to-year variations in climate ¹ . The response of fires to this forcing ² is complex and has not been evaluated systematically across different continents. Here we use satellite data to create a climatology of burned-area and fire-emissions responses, drawing on six El Niño...

Burn less, baby, burn less Humans have, and always have had, a major impact on wildfire activity, which is expected to increase in our warming world. Andela et al. use satellite data to show that, unexpectedly, global burned area declined by ∼25% over the past 18 years, despite the influence of climate. The decrease has been largest in savannas and...

Landscape fires occur on a large scale in (sub)tropical savannas and grasslands, affecting ecosystem dynamics, regional air quality and concentrations of atmospheric trace gasses. Fuel consumption per unit of area burned is an important but poorly constrained parameter in fire emission modelling. We combined satellite-derived burned area with fire...

Large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) patterns influence the interannual variability of burned area in many regions by means of climate controls on fuel continuity, amount, and moisture content. Some of the variability in burned area is predictable on seasonal timescales because fuel characteristics respond to the cumulative effects of climate...

Landscape fires occur on a large scale in (sub)tropical savannas and grasslands, affecting ecosystem dynamics, regional air quality and concentrations of atmospheric trace gasses. Fuel consumption per unit of area burned is an important but poorly constrained parameter in fire emission modelling. We combined satellite-derived burned area with fire...

Accurate near real time fire emissions estimates are required for air quality forecasts. To date, most approaches are based on satellite-derived estimates of fire radiative power (FRP), which can be converted to fire radiative energy (FRE) which is directly related to fire emissions. Uncertainties in these FRE estimates are often substantial. This...

Accurate near real time fire emissions estimates are required for air quality forecasts. To date, most approaches are based on satellite-derived estimates of fire radiative power (FRP), which can be converted to fire radiative energy (FRE) which is directly related to fire emissions. Uncertainties in these FRE estimations are often substantial. Thi...

Landscape fires are key in African ecosystems(1-3) and the continent is responsible for similar to 70% of global burned area and similar to 50% of fire-related carbon emissions(4,5). Fires are mostly human ignited, but precipitation patterns govern when and where fires can occur(6). The relative role of humans and precipitation in driving the spati...

The land and ocean act as a sink for fossil-fuel emissions, thereby slowing the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Although the uptake of carbon by oceanic and terrestrial processes has kept pace with accelerating carbon dioxide emissions until now, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations exhibit a large variability on interannual...

Drylands, covering nearly 30% of the global land surface, are characterized by high climate variability and sensitivity to land management. Here, two satellite-observed vegetation products were used to study the long-term (1988-2008) vegetation changes of global drylands: the widely used reflective-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI...

We will present the latest developments of the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS), which has been implemented by the MACC-II project in order to provide accurate fire biomass burning emission estimates for the real time and retrospective Copernicus/GMES atmospheric monitoring and forecasting services. Accurate fire emissions have been shown to...