Nicola Scafetta

Nicola Scafetta
University of Naples Federico II | UNINA · Department of Earth Sciences, Environment and Resources

Ph. D. in Physics

About

167
Publications
79,726
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4,157
Citations
Citations since 2017
37 Research Items
1601 Citations
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20172018201920202021202220230100200300
20172018201920202021202220230100200300
20172018201920202021202220230100200300
Additional affiliations
February 2002 - October 2014
Duke University
Position
  • Researcher

Publications

Publications (167)
Preprint
Full-text available
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (phase 6) (CMIP6) global circulation models (GCMs) predict equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) values ranging between 1.8 and 5.7 $^\circ$C. To narrow this range, we group 38 GCMs into low, medium and high ECS subgroups and test their accuracy and precision in hindcasting the mean global surface warming o...
Article
Full-text available
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (phase 6) (CMIP6) global circulation models (GCMs) predict equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) values ranging between 1.8 and 5.7 $${^\circ }$$ ∘ C. To narrow this range, we group 38 GCMs into low, medium and high ECS subgroups and test their accuracy and precision in hindcasting the mean global surface w...
Book
Full-text available
LO SPECIALE DI CALABRIA.LIVE Questo speciale affronta il tema tanto dibattuto dei cosiddetti cambiamenti climatici antropici. Oltre all’introduzione del prof. Alberto Prestininzi, geologo, già docente alla Sapienza di Roma, contiene tre importanti contributi. La prima di carattere economico, scritta dal Prof. Mario Giaccio, già Preside della Facolt...
Article
Full-text available
Commenting the 11-year sunspot cycle, Wolf (1859, MNRAS 19, 85–86) conjectured that “the variations of spot-frequency depend on the influences of Venus, Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn.” The high synchronization of our planetary system is already nicely revealed by the fact that the ratios of the planetary orbital radii are closely related to each other...
Article
Full-text available
Plain Language Summary The last‐generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP6) global circulation models (GCMs) are used by scientists and policymakers to interpret past and future climatic changes and to determine appropriate (adaptation or mitigation) policies to optimally address scenario‐related climate‐change hazards. However, these...
Preprint
Full-text available
The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of the CMIP6 global circulation models (GCMs) varies from 1.83 {\deg}C to 5.67 {\deg}C. Herein, 38 GCMs are grouped into three ECS classes (low, 1.80-3.00 {\deg}C; medium, 3.01-4.50 {\deg}C; high, 4.51-6.00 {\deg}C) and compared against the ERA5-T2m records from 1980-1990 to 2011-2021. We found that all mod...
Preprint
Full-text available
Orbital systems are often self-organized and/or characterized by harmonic relations. Inspired by music theory, we rewrite the Geddes and King-Hele (QJRAS, 24, 10-13, 1983) equations for mirror symmetries among the distances of the planets of the solar system in an elegant and compact form by using the 2/3rd power of the ratios of the semi-major axi...
Article
Full-text available
Orbital systems are often self-organized and/or characterized by harmonic relations. Inspired by music theory, we rewrite the Geddes and King-Hele (QJRAS, 24, 10–13, 1983) equations for mirror symmetries among the distances of the planets of the Solar System in an elegant and compact form by using the 2/3rd power of the ratios of the semimajor axis...
Article
Full-text available
The last-generation CMIP6 global circulation models (GCMs) are currently used to interpret past and future climatic changes and to guide policymakers, but they are very different from each other; for example, their equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) varies from 1.83 to 5.67 °C (IPCC AR6, 2021). Even assuming that some of them are sufficiently re...
Article
Full-text available
This report contains the meteorological bulletin for the year 1990. The data were measured at the Meteorological Observatory of the University of Naples Federico II located in Largo San Marcellino, 10, in the Historic Center of Naples. The weather report is organized as follows: • a meteorological report for the year 1990; • 12 monthly reports and...
Article
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In order to evaluate how much Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has influenced Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends, it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities. Sixteen different estimates of the changes in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) since at least the 19th century were compiled from the literature. Half of these estim...
Preprint
Full-text available
To evaluate the role of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) on Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface air temperature trends it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities. 16 different TSI estimates were compiled from the literature. 1/2 of these estimates are low variability and 1/2 are high variability. 5 largely-independent methods for estima...
Article
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The 0.6 °C warming observed in global temperature datasets from 1940 to 1960 to 2000–2020 can be partially due to urban heat island (UHI) and other non-climatic biases in the underlying data, although several previous studies have argued to the contrary. Here we identify land regions where such biases could be present by locally evaluating their di...
Article
Because most relevant studies have used small sample sizes, to date, representative atmospheric monitoring of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) on a regional scale has been very limited, which makes it difficult to precisely identify “hotspots” and possible pollution sources. In this study, an ultrahigh resolution monitoring technique was used t...
Article
Full-text available
Climate changes are due to anthropogenic factors, volcano eruptions and the natural variability of the Earth’s system. Herein the natural variability of the global surface temperature is modeled using a set of harmonics spanning from the inter-annual to the millennial scales. The model is supported by the following considerations: (1) power spectru...
Article
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We study whether the shallow volcanic seismic tremors related to the bradyseism observed at the Phlegraean Fields (Campi Flegrei, Pozzuoli, and Naples) from 2008 to 2020 by the Osservatorio Vesuviano could be partially triggered by local rainfall events. We use the daily rainfall record measured at the nearby Meteorological Observatory of San Marce...
Article
Full-text available
Plain Language Summary The physical origin of the modulation of the cloud system and of many of the Earth's climate oscillations from the decadal to the millennial timescales is still unclear, despite its importance in climate science. One of the most prominent oscillations has a period of about 60 years and is found in a number of geophysical reco...
Article
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This paper investigates whether the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic could have been favored by specific weather conditions and other factors. It is found that the 2020 winter weather in the region of Wuhan (Hubei, Central China)—where the virus first broke out in December and spread widely from January to Febru...
Preprint
This paper investigates whether the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic – also known as COronaVIrus Disease 19 (COVID-19) – could have been favored by specific weather conditions. It was found that the 2020 winter weather in the region of Wuhan (Hubei, Central China) – where the virus first broke out in December an...
Article
Full-text available
Gravitational planetary lensing of slow-moving matter streaming towards the Sun was suggested to explain puzzling solar-flare occurrences and other unexplained solar-emission phenomena (Bertolucci et al. in Phys. Dark Universe17, 13, 2017). If it is actually so, the effect of gravitational lensing of this stream by heavy planets (Jupiter, Saturn, U...
Book
Full-text available
This essay reveals the most intimate secret of the city of Naples through an archaeoastronomical investigation on the religious and philosophical motivations that were the basis of the urban planning of its ancient Greek nucleus, Neapolis, founded in the fifth century BC by the Cumans and other Greek colonists. The city appears designed so as to re...
Article
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A continuous record of direct total solar irradiance (TSI) observations began with a series of satellite experiments in 1978. This record requires comparisons of overlapping satellite observations with adequate relative precisions to provide useful long term TSI trend information. Herein we briefly review the active cavity radiometer irradiance mon...
Article
The high-resolution Jet Propulsion Laboratory DE431 and DE432 planetary ephemeris are used to evaluate the instantaneous eccentricity functions of the orbits of the planets of the solar system from 13 000 BC to 17 000 AD at different time scales. Spectral analyses are performed to determine the frequencies and the amplitudes of the detected perturb...
Article
Full-text available
Since 1850 the global surface temperature of the Earth has warmed by about 0.9°C. The computer climate models adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), such as the General Circulation Models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), projected that the global surface temperature could rise more than 1.5°C b...
Article
Near-surface temperature records show that China warmed by about 0.8 °C from 1950 to 2010. However, there exists an ongoing debate about whether this warming might have been partially due to urbanization bias. In fact, homogenization approaches may be inefficient in densely populated provinces that have experienced a significant urban development s...
Article
This paper investigates what may have been the cosmological and religious inspirations for the plan of the city of Parthenope-Neapolis (the historic centre of Naples, Italy), which was founded in the early fifth century BC by Greek colonists. Neapolis anticipated the strict orthogonal Hippodamian street grid plan. We argue that its geometry and geo...
Article
Full-text available
Severe weather events cause considerable disruptions to social and economic activities. Thus, high-precision meteorological products and services should be provided in order to forecast high-impacting weather conditions a few hours in advance such as those causing flash-floods. Today, this goal is mainly fulfilled by nowcasting. However, to fully c...
Article
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We present a new analysis of the two-decade-old controversy over interpretation of satellite observations of total solar irradiance (TSI) since 1978 and the implications of our findings for TSI as a driver of climate change. Our approach compares the methods of constructing the two most commonly referenced TSI composites (ACRIM and PMOD) that relat...
Preprint
Full-text available
In this paper we investigate the correlation between the atmospheric perturbations at Paranal Observatory and the Chilean coast tides, which are mostly modulated by the 14-day syzygy solar-lunar tidal cycle. To this aim, we downloaded 15 years (2003-2017) of cloud coverage data from the AQUA satellite, in a matrix that includes also Armazones, the...
Article
In this paper we investigate the correlation between the atmospheric perturbations at Paranal Observatory and the Chilean coast tides, which are mostly modulated by the 14-day syzygy solar-lunar tidal cycle. To this aim, we downloaded 15 years (2003-2017) of cloud coverage data from the AQUA satellite, in a matrix that includes also Armazones, the...
Article
Full-text available
We study the yearly values of the length of day (LOD, 1623–2016) and its link to the zonal index (ZI, 1873–2003), the Northern Atlantic oscillation index (NAO, 1659–2000) and the global sea surface temperature (SST, 1850–2016). LOD is herein assumed to be mostly the result of the overall circulations occurring within the ocean-atmospheric system. W...
Article
Holm (ASR, 2018) claims that Scafetta (ASR 57, 2121–2135, 2016) is “irreproducible” because I would have left “undocumented” the values of two parameters (a reduced-rank index p and a regularization term δ) that he claimed to be requested in the Magnitude Squared Coherence Canonical Correlation Analysis (MSC-CCA). Yet, my analysis did not require s...
Article
Mazzarella and Scafetta (2016) showed that the seismic activity recorded at the Bunker-East (BKE) Vesuvian station from 1999 to 2014 suggests a higher nocturnal seismic activity. However, this station is located at about 50 m from the main road to the volcano's crater and since 2009 its seismograms also record a significant diurnal cultural noise d...
Article
Full-text available
The period from 2000 to 2016 shows a modest warming trend that the advocates of the anthropogenic global warming theory have labeled as the "pause" or “hiatus.” These labels were chosen to indicate that the observed temperature standstill period results from an unforced internal fluctuation of the climate (e.g. by heat uptake of the deep ocean) tha...
Article
Full-text available
During the whole history of the planet, astronomical factors (orbital and solar variability) have determined the energy balance of the Earth and generated natural climate oscillations affecting the life of plants, animals and human beings at all time scales. During the last decades, severe concerns have been raised about whether human activities co...
Article
Full-text available
We characterize the meteo-climate data of the urban area of Naples to determine the areal and seasonal distribution of energy demand needed to heat or cool its buildings. Naples is a one million people city facing the Tyrrhenian Sea in Central Italy with a complex morphology made of hills and valleys, spanning in altitude from 0 to 400 m asl. We us...
Article
Subsidence phenomena change the proneness of urban and coastal areas to huge flooding, particularly, in river delta regions. Many natural and/or anthropic processes can induce vertical ground movements; identifying the causes of the observed phenomena is a useful, even if not easy, task for flood forecasting. In order to improve the knowledge of na...
Article
We investigate the relationship between synoptic/local meteorological patterns and PM10 air pollution levels in the metropolitan area of Naples, Italy. We found that severe air pollution crises occurred when the 850 and 500 hpa geopotential heights and their relative temperatures present maximum values above the city. The most relevant synoptic par...
Article
Full-text available
Urban Heat Island (UHI) is a physical process getting more and more hazardous for people living in a large city. It can be influenced by several factors such as geomorphological context, the presence of lakes, rivers or sea, the land use and urban features with special regard to the presence of extended green areas/infrastructures. The metropolitan...
Article
Full-text available
Since 1850 the global surface temperature has warmed by about 0.9 oC. The CMIP5 computer climate models adopted by the IPCC have projected that the global surface temperature could rise by 2-5 oC from 2000 to 2100 for anthropogenic reasons. These projections are currently used to justify expensive mitigation policies to reduce the emission of anthr...
Article
An oscillation with a period of about 2100-2500 years, the Hallstatt cycle, is found in cosmogenic radioisotopes (C-14 and Be-10) and in paleoclimate records throughout the Holocene. Herein we demonstrate the astronomical origin of this cycle. Namely, this oscillation is coherent to the major stable resonance involving the four Jovian planets - Jup...
Article
This study investigates the existence of a multi-frequency spectral coherence between planetary and global surface temperature oscillations by using advanced techniques of coherence analysis and statistical significance tests. The performance of the standard Matlab mscohere algorithms is compared versus high resolution coherence analysis methodolog...
Article
Full-text available
During the partial (~50%) solar eclipse occurred on March 20, 2015, morning, various meteorological parameters were monitored to study their evolution above the urban area of Naples, central Italy. The experimental conditions were optimal because of the clear sky situation all over Italy, and in Naples in particular. The eclipse last about 2 hours...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
An eddy covariance tower has been installed on the rooftop of the Meteorological Observatory of Largo San Marcellino A fast response ultrasonic anemometer (Gill WindMaster) located on a terrace, 35m height above the irregular street level, resulting in an overall measuring height of 45 m. Mixing ratios of CO 2 , CH 4 and H 2 O are measured by a fas...
Article
Full-text available
Here we study the Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice area records provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). These records reveal an opposite climatic behavior: since 1978 the Arctic sea-ice area index decreased, that is, the region has warmed, while the Antarctic sea-ice area index increased, that is, the region has cooled. During the la...
Article
We compare the NOAA Significant Earthquake Historical database versus typical climatic indices and the length of the day (LOD). The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) record is mainly adopted because most of the analyzed earthquakes occurred at the land boundaries of the Pacific Plate. The NOAA catalog contains information on destructive earthquakes...
Chapter
Full-text available
On January 7, 2013, there was a major solar flare. It occurred in direct connection with a triple planetary conjunction of Venus, Earth and Jupiter. This is in line with the theory of a solar response to planetary beat. The simultaneous aurora, magnetometer and tidal signals observed at Tromsø are reviewed, and a commensurability between the Sun- V...
Chapter
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The international journal of Pattern Recognition in Physics was a good journal that might have become a renowned forum for important scientific papers. Its termination due to a straightforward conclusion on solar variability in relation to climate change is not only to be regretted as an unreasonable constraint on academic freedom but also excoriat...
Article
During the last few years a number of works have proposed that planetary harmonics regulate solar oscillations and the Earth climate. Herein I address some critiques. Detailed analysis of the data do support the planetary theory of solar and climate variation. In particular, I show that: (1) high-resolution cosmogenic 10Be and 14C solar activity pr...
Article
Full-text available
www.pattern-recognition-in-physics.com c Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Abstract On 7 January, 2014 at 18:32 GMT, the Sun unleashed a massive X1.2-class solar flare, seven times the size of the Earth (NASA News, 2014b). At the occasion there was a strict triple inferior conjunction of Jupiter, Earth and Venus with respect to the Sun. T...
Article
The satellite total solar irradiance (TSI) database provides a valuable record for investigating models of solar variation used to interpret climate changes. The 35-year ACRIM total solar irradiance (TSI) satellite composite time series has been revised using algorithm updates based on 13 years of accumulated mission experience and corrections to A...
Book
Full-text available
The Sun’s activity constantly varies in characteristic cyclic patterns. With new material and new analyses, we reinforce the old proposal that the driving forces are to be found in the planetary beat on the Sun and the Sun’s motions around the center of mass. This is a Special Issue published on Pattern Recognition in Physics where various aspects...
Article
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The complex planetary synchronization structure of the solar system, which since Pythagoras of Samos (ca. 570–495 BC) is known as the music of the spheres, is briefly reviewed from the Renaissance up to contemporary research. Copernicus' heliocentric model from 1543 suggested that the planets of our solar system form a kind of mutually ordered and...
Data
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The idea that planetary effects may modulate, or even control solar variability is old; having been investigated by Rudolf Wolf from 1859 until his death in 1893. Many further efforts to measure and explain the possible mechanisms for planetary solar effects have been made by researchers at frequent intervals through the years. Despite this it has...
Chapter
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Herein we adopt a multiscale dynamical spectral analysis technique to compare and study the dynamical evolution of the harmonic components of the overlapping ACRIMSAT/ACRIM3 (Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor Satellite/Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor 3), SOHO/VIRGO (Solar and Heliopheric Observatory/Variability of solar Irradi...
Chapter
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In a collection of research papers devoted to the problem of solar variability and its origin in plan-etary beat, it is demonstrated that the forcing function originates from gravitational and inertial effects on the Sun from the planets and their satellites. This conclusion is shared by nineteen co-authors.
Article
Power spectra of global surface temperature (GST) records reveal major periodicities at about 9.1, 10-11, 19-22 and 59-62 years. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs), to be used in the IPCC (2013), are analyzed and found not able to reconstruct this variability. From 2000 to 2013.5 a GST plateau is o...
Article
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Herein I respond to the criticism and to the complains by Benestad (Pattern Recogn. Phys. 1, 91-92, 2013, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/prp-1-91-2013) of Scafetta (Pattern Recogn. Phys. 1, 37-57, 2013, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/prp-1-37-2013) that I found misleading and not tenable. More significantly, Benestad did not find any physical nor mathematica...
Article
Callebaut et al. (2012)'s claim that Scafetta (2010)'s results about a correlation between 20-year and 60-year temperature cycles and the orbital motion of Jupiter and Saturn were not confirmed by Humlum et al. (2011) is erroneous and severely misleading. Also Callebaut et al. (2012)'s absolute claim that a planetary influences on the Sun should be...
Article
Full-text available
The time series of total solar irradiance (TSI) satellite observations since 1978 provided by ACRIM and PMOD TSI composites are studied. We find empirical evidence for planetary-induced forcing and modulation of solar activity. Power spectra and direct data pattern analysis reveal a clear signature of the 1.09-year Earth-Jupiter conjunction cycle,...
Article
Full-text available
Global surface temperature records (e.g. HadCRUT4) since 1850 are characterized by climatic oscillations synchronous with specific solar, planetary and lunar harmonics superimposed on a background warming modulation. The latter is related to a long millennial solar oscillation and to changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere (e.g. aeros...
Article
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Errors in applying regression models and wavelet filters used to analyze geophysical signals are discussed: (1) multidecadal natural oscillations (e.g. the quasi 60-year Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)) need to be taken into account for properly quantifying anomalous ac...
Article
Herein I propose a multi-scale dynamical analysis to facilitate the physical interpretation of tide gauge records. The technique uses graphical diagrams. It is applied to six secular-long tide gauge records representative of the world oceans: Sydney, Pacific coast of Australia; Fremantle, Indian Ocean coast of Australia; New York City, Atlantic coa...
Article
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The deposition of varved sedimentary sequences is usually controlled by climate conditions. The study of two late Miocene evaporite successions (one halite and the other gypsum) consisting of annual varves has been carried out to reconstruct the paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental conditions existing during the acme of the Messinian salinity crisi...
Article
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The historical Hungarian auroral record extends from 1523 to 1960 and is longer than the sunspot record. Harmonic analysis reveals four major multidecadal secular cycles forming an approximate harmonic set at periods of 42.85, 57.13, 85.7 and 171.4 years. These four frequencies are very close to the four major heliospheric oscillations relative to...
Chapter
Full-text available
Multiscale comparative spectral analysis of satellite total solar irradiance measurements from 2003 to 2013 reveals a planetary modulation of solar activity and its nonlinear dependence on the 11 yr solar cycle. Scafetta, N. and Willson, R. C.: Pattern Recogn. Phys., 1, 123-133, Abstract. Herein we adopt a multiscale dynamical spectral analysis tec...