Nicholas Ross Smith

University of Canterbury | UC · National Centre for Research on Europe (NCRE)

When confronted by the competing zero‐sum regional strategies of the EU and Russia between 2010 and 2013, Ukraine chose to aggressively pursue a dual‐aligned hedge. This policy choice, in part, helped precipitate a disastrous outcome: the Ukraine crisis. Using the insights of the literature on smaller power hedging and regional security complex the...

Friendship is an important aspect of a state’s ability to succeed in great power politics, especially with regards to international order reshaping or building. Through engaging with the extant literature on friendship in International Relations, it is posited that while friendships tend to arise along strategic or normative dimensions, the most im...

The usefulness of ‘realism’ in explaining Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine has become a keenly contested debate not only in International Relations but in wider public intellectual discourse since the onset of the war in February 2022. At the centre of this debate is the punditry of John J. Mearsheimer, a prominent offensive realist who is a Pro...

In 2021, Aotearoa New Zealand's Foreign Minister, Nanaia Mahuta, sketched out a kaupapa Māori (collective Māori vision) foreign policy for New Zealand based on four tikanga Māori (Māori customary practices and behaviours): manaakitanga (hospitality), whanaungatanga (connectedness), mahi tahi and kotahitanga (unity through collaboration), and kaitia...

Typically, China has tried to use positive aspects of its history, such as its previous grandeur and its philosophical and cultural heritage, to guide its diplomatic strategic narratives-a kind of historical statecraft. However, this has largely failed to inspire international audiences. Analysis of China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs' regular pres...

This chapter analyses the European Union, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom statecraft in the Pacific Islands region. Like other partners, Europe has gained a sudden interest in the ‘Indo-Pacific’ as part of the emerging geostrategic competition between the United States and China – – portraying Europe as a ‘mediator’ to prevent conflict. Eur...

Aotearoa New Zealand and the European Union (EU) have a strong and friendly relationship, recently bolstered by the signing of a Free Trade Agreement in 2022. However, when it comes to the Indo-Pacific, the EU has largely been absent in New Zealand’s strategizing to date, other than a brief acknowledgment of the importance of the ASEM (Asia Europe...

Since the late 2000s, New Zealand has largely followed an asymmetrical hedging strategy in its foreign policy: growing its trade relationship with China while concurrently remaining firmly within the US-led security architecture. However, as the room for hedging in the Indo-Pacific has shrunk, especially after Wellington adopted an Indo-Pacific out...

The Indo-Pacific is increasingly talked about as being a region or super-region. However, the sheer geographical size of the Indo-Pacific, which at its maximalist definition stretches from the east coast of Africa to the west coast of South America, undermines the utility of the term region or super-region. This article argues that the Indo-Pacific...

The topic of whether New Zealand should participate in AUKUS or not has emerged as a significant debate in popular political discourses in 2024. Thus far, clear pro-AUKUS and anti-AUKUS camps have developed. The pro-AUKUS camp emphasizes the growing threat of China in the Indo-Pacific and New Zealand's lacking technological capabilities that will h...

Under the leadership of Jacinda Ardern, New Zealand (the taniwha) has engineered a "mature relationship" with China (the dragon) which is underpinned by deepening trade dependence. However, the Sino-New Zealand relationship is significantly challenged by the growing geopolitical uncertainty of the Indo-Pacific and New Zealand's putative China strat...

New Zealand made headlines in 2021 after its Foreign Minister, Nanaia Mahuta, outlined an “indigenous foreign policy” for New Zealand guided by Māori principles. The main objective of this turn was that New Zealand would embrace a values-based approach to foreign policy making that emphasized kindness and reciprocity (manaaki), connectedness (whana...

Purpose – The purpose of this research is to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the EU’s public diplomacy – towards both domestic and external audiences – during times of crisis. The EU’s public diplomacy is examined across six major crises: the Eurozone crisis (2008), the Ukrainian crisis (2014), the migrant crisis (2015), the Brexit referen...

Chinese policymakers have generally understood that China’s rise to international prominence and global leadership would bring with it challenges, especially regarding the perceptions of others. To allay the fears of outsiders about its rise, China has spent billions on public diplomacy initiatives. Yet, China has little to show for this, as extern...

Since at least the last decade, New Zealand has been employing something of an asymmetrical alignment hedge of the US and China, aligning itself with the US strategically and with China economically. Such a strategy remains the perceived optimal foreign policy in Wellington. However, as Sino-American relations continue to deteriorate and the Indo-P...

There is much pessimism as to the current state of Sino-American relations, especially since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in January 2020. Such pessimism has led to some scholars and commentators asserting that the Sino-American relationship is on the cusp of either a new Cold War or, even more alarmingly, something akin to the Peloponnesian...

This commentary makes the argument that constructive dialogue with China represents the only viable route for the emerging "coalition of the willing" to bring an end to the crimes against humanity the Uyghurs are currently experiencing. The most frequently suggested tactics - ostracism, international legal recourse, and economic sanctions - are all...

The accession of the remaining six Western Balkan states into the EU is shrouded in much uncertainty. Despite Croatia finally traversing the difficult path to eventual membership in 2013, not one of the remaining Western Balkan countries can claim to be on a definite pathway to membership today. An increasingly prevalent argument is that the EU’s e...

This article ponders the potential for the COVID-19 pandemic to represent an epochal moment in international politics, one which China can use as a window to maximize their international order building efforts. It is argued that China’s putative international order building efforts to date have faltered, in part, due to an inability to create meani...

La réaction de la Chine à l'épidémie de coronavirus est suivie de très près, mais la plupart des analyses portent avant tout sur son degré d'efficacité. Un aspect important est souvent négligé : l'impact que cette réaction aura sur le fonctionnement de l'État en Chine.

Rather than downplaying the seriousness of the issue, the authorities have now started building the virus up as an unprecedented threat for China, one which can only be solved by an extraordinary form of politics.

\Emilian Kavalski and Nicholas Ross Smith, from the University of Nottingham Ningbo China, explore the coronavirus outbreak through an international relations lens.

This chapter begins with an examination of how changing technology—namely the development of nuclear weapons—impacted the early Cold War period. It is argued that the nuclear weapons arms race that enveloped the first 15 years of the Cold War had a massive impact on the conduct of international politics. The gradual development of the logic of mutu...

This chapter begins with an examination of the psychological environment which emerged in the early Cold War period. It is argued that the prevailing structural and ideological dimensions combined with the uncertainty of which side was stronger, interlinked with the arms races and disputes over numerous international crises, led to the rise in anxi...

This chapter begins with an examination of the structural factors which underpinned the development of the Cold War in the first 15 years. It is argued that the emerging bipolar structure (and accompanying bipolarization) was an important precursor to the development of the Cold War because it pitted the US and the Soviet Union against one another—...

This chapter develops a specific Type III neoclassical realist theoretical framework for the analysis of the two compared international political periods: the first 15 years of the Cold War (1947–62) and the most recent 15 years of the US-Russia relationship (2003–18). After offering a discussion of the evolution of neoclassical realism, an examina...

This chapter begins with an examination of the competing ideologies that developed in the US and the Soviet Union in the early years of the Cold War. The US’s ideology of Democratic Capitalism and the Soviet Union’s Marxist-Leninist ideology were not only both heavily international in aims and scope, but were also universalist, each seeing itself a...

The conclusion compiles the four examined dimensions together into an argument that characterizing the current US-Russia relationship, despite clear cooling, as a New Cold War is of little analytical value because such significant differences exist. Further to this, it is argued that the propensity of key decision-makers in both the US and Russia t...

‘This book offers a timely assessment of the current US-Russian relations by addressing the most pressing question confronting international relations scholars…Smith skillfully identifies four key dimensions to compare the Cold War and the current state of US-Russian relations, giving us a much better picture of the potential for a new cold war, an...

South China Morning Post

Based on recent events in Xinjiang, such as the introduction of re-education camps, it is clear that China’s strategy is aimed at assimilating the Uighur people into adopting a more “Chinese” way of life. The viewpoint of this author is that such a strategy is doomed to fail. Assimilation strategies have typically only worked when the target commun...

This commentary argues that the Brexit outcome was, in part, a product of certain politicians using historical myths to acquire power. But the politicians and the United Kingdom have become trapped by this history. This trap is not a uniquely British phenomenon as numerous examples can be found across the globe. However, problematically, in some ca...

Although a significant body of literature in the field of International Relations has emerged over the past decade proclaiming the coming end of American primacy – whether due to American decline, the rise of China and other emerging powers, or a combination of both – this article argues that when considered objectively, the United States’ primacy...

Over the past three years, Russia has been repeatedly accused of infiltrating democratic elections in the West. It is suspected of supporting anti-establishment movements on both the left and right through a mixture of financial support, intelligence sharing, and, perhaps, even through the use of cyber weapons. Russia has undergone a staggering tr...

Russia, under the stewardship of Vladimir Putin, has arguably taken a number of steps to try and secure a position as a pole in an emerging multipolar world. One step has been to modernize its military and reassert itself globally (evident in its Syria action), while another step has been to try and hasten the decline of the United States (evident...

Upon choosing an international outcome – the Ukraine crisis – and devising a central research puzzle – to what degree did the foreign policies of the EU and Russia influence the onset of the crisis - I decided upon the process tracing method to drive the research and analysis of my book project. Process tracing a method which aims to enable the res...

Hedging has become the strategic strategy de jure, particularly for smaller powers1 that find themselves in increasingly volatile regional settings. Both in practice and in literature, hedging has become somewhat mythologized as an ideal foreign policy for smaller powers; a strategy which avoids the costs of either balancing or bandwagoning. This p...

This paper examines whether Cold War-style anxiety and paranoia have emerged in the West–Russia relationship since the onset of the Ukraine crisis in 2013. Although the idea that a New Cold War is emerging is repudiated, the possibility that anxiety and paranoia are developing in Eastern Europe is deemed worthy of examination. Using Bronfenbrenner’...

The incredible growth of cryptocurrencies over the past six months has captured the attention and imagination of the world, with something of a crypto-mania emerging. What was once predominately the domain of a niche group of internet libertarians, cryptocurrencies are quickly becoming the darlings of Wall Street. Much of the recent focus on crypto...

The Ukraine crisis and the subsequent cooling of West-Russia relations has elicited a number of popular arguments as to the trajectory of the relationship, many of which are alarming and pessimistic. After acknowledging the current impasse that has emerged between the coalition of Western actors, Ukraine and Russia since the signing of the second M...

Russia's foreign policy decisions towards Ukraine in the context of the " Ukraine crisis " have been portrayed largely in a negative light which crudely paints Russia's actions as being imperialistic, evil and largely irrational. This article argues that by looking at the interplay of identity and perceptions at the foreign policymaking level, Russ...

The Orange revolution raised hopes for a positive upsurge in Ukraine’s democratisation trajectory. However, more than a decade after the Orange Revolution, it is clear that Ukraine has made little progress with regard to democratisation. This chapter identifies two important factors, one internal and one external, which help explain, in part, the l...

This article breaks from the dominant liberal-idealist literature and examines the European Union’s (EU) foreign policy decisions from a realist perspective. Through employing a novel, EU-focussed neoclassical realist framework, the EU’s offer of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) to Ukraine is argued as being a result of the med...

This paper evaluates the competitiveness of the European Union (EU) and Russia's regime preferences in their foreign policies towards Ukraine in the scope of the on-going Ukraine crisis. It is argued that the underpinning geopolitical environment Ukraine currently resides in, wedged between two much larger powers (the EU and Russia), renders it a v...

While an economic and political union between Russia and Europe is unlikely, it could serve the interests of both sides in an increasingly hostile world. In March 2015, one thing is clear: a new rift between the transatlantic West and Russia is developing – one which could usher in a new period of animosity. As the crisis in Ukraine continues, ther...

Owing to the EU's power position within the European regional setting, this article argues that the EU's offer of an Association Agreement to Ukraine was first and foremost driven by self-interest. In gauging the opinions of EU officials in conjunction with the examination of official policy documents, an argument is made that the EU's material, re...

The EU’s foreign policy response(s) to the unfolding Ukraine crisis has further illustrated its difficulty in making effective foreign policy decisions. Using a neoclassical realist analytical framework, this paper argues that although the EU did have tangible collective interests in pursuing its Ukraine foreign policy, it was unable to adequately...

Since the ‘mega-enlargement’ of the European Union into the erstwhile communist territories of Eastern Central Europe and the Baltics in 2004/2007, the prospect for further EU enlargement(s) has seriously dissipated. Terms such as ‘enlargement fatigue’ and ‘absorption capacity’ have become en vogue in the post-2007 enlargement setting where older E...

The ratification of the Treaty of Lisbon (ToL) represents an attempt by the European Union (EU) to become a more visible and effective international actor. Foregoing the typical analysis on EU foreign policy, which posits what type of power it is, or what level of actorness it has, this article analyses the EU's international action from the perspe...

This paper examines the effectiveness of the EU's utilization of conditionality in the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) through examination of the electoral reform prescribed in the Armenian Action Plan (AAP) for the 2008 Armenian presidential election. Electoral reform performance provides important insights into the applicability of conditiona...

This paper examines the EU's effectiveness in promoting democracy in its Eastern Neighbourhood through engaging with the case study of Armenia. In evoking Pridham's two-track approach to democratization, the EU's democratic strategy in its European Neighbourhood Policy is evaluated through empirically examining electoral reform (2008 presidential e...

This paper examines the European Union's interaction with civil society organizations in Armenia through the European Neighbourhood Policy as a potential example of normative socialization. Through examining the EU's interaction with domestic NGOs in Armenia, this paper offers an evaluation of the socialization mechanism coupled with a general crit...

This paper examines the European Union's interaction with civil society organizations in Armenia through the European Neighbourhood Policy as a potential example of normative socialization. Through examining the EU's interaction with domestic NGOs in Armenia, this paper offers an evaluation of the socialization mechanism coupled with a general crit...

External construction of the European unity idea is an under-researched topic in EU scholarship. This paper explores the potential of return migration from the EU to third countries to the study and practice of EU public diplomacy and external relations. Attempting to conceptualise the phenomenon of return migration within theories of public diplom...