Nelson Alvis Guzmán

• MD. MPH. PhD.
• Senior Researcher at University of Cartagena

Introduction. In a previous study, we identified an inverse relationship between adverse perinatal outcomes and iron status during late pregnancy of women recruited from a maternal hospital in Cartagena, Colombia. Some of these outcomes have also been linked to maternal inflammatory states. However, there is currently no clarity regarding the relat...

Asthma and atopic dermatitis are common allergic conditions that contribute to substantial health loss, economic burden, and pain across individuals of all ages worldwide. Therefore, as a component of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we present updated estimates of the prevalence, disability-adjusted life-...

Background Despite a substantial reduction in the use of solid fuels for cooking worldwide, exposure to household air pollution (HAP) remains a leading global risk factor, contributing considerably to the burden of disease. We present a comprehensive analysis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in exposure and attributable disease from 1990 to...

Summary Background: Overweight and obesity is a global epidemic. Forecasting future trajectories of the epidemic is crucial for providing an evidence base for policy change. In this study, we examine the historical trends of the global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity from 1990 to 2021 and forecast the future traje...

Background Despite the well documented consequences of obesity during childhood and adolescence and future risks of excess body mass on non-communicable diseases in adulthood, coordinated global action on excess body mass in early life is still insufficient. Inconsistent measurement and reporting are a barrier to specific targets, resource allocati...

Background Overweight and obesity is a global epidemic. Forecasting future trajectories of the epidemic is crucial for providing an evidence base for policy change. In this study, we examine the historical trends of the global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity from 1990 to 2021 and forecast the future trajectories t...

Background: Deaths from suicide are a tragic yet preventable cause of mortality. Quantifying the burden of suicide to understand its geographical distribution, temporal trends, and variation by age and sex is an essential step in suicide prevention. We aimed to present a comprehensive set of global, regional, and national estimates of suicide burd...

Background Upper respiratory infections (URIs) are the leading cause of acute disease incidence worldwide and contribute to a substantial health-care burden. Although acute otitis media is a common complication of URIs, the combined global burden of URIs and otitis media has not been studied comprehensively. We used results from the Global Burden o...

Summary Background Diarrhoeal diseases claim more than 1 million lives annually and are a leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years. Comprehensive global estimates of the diarrhoeal disease burden for specific age groups of children younger than 5 years are scarce, and the burden in children older than 5 years and in adults is also un...

Background The six global nutrition targets (GNTs) related to low birthweight, exclusive breastfeeding, child growth (ie, wasting, stunting, and overweight), and anaemia among females of reproductive age were chosen by the World Health Assembly in 2012 as key indicators of maternal and child health, but there has yet to be a comprehensive report o...

Introduction: Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) re- mains a pediatric health challenge despite national vaccination efforts in Colombia. We described the socio-demographic, epidemiological, and clinical characteristics of children (<18 years of age) with IPD at a pediatric reference center in Bolívar, Colombia. Methods: Descriptive cross-sectiona...

Background As set out in Sustainable Development Goal 3.3, the target date for ending the HIV epidemic as a public health threat is 2030. Therefore, there is a crucial need to evaluate current epidemiological trends and monitor global progress towards HIV incidence and mortality reduction goals. In this analysis, we assess the current burden of HIV...

Supplement to: GBD 2021 Tobacco Forecasting Collaborators. Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.Lancet Public Health 2024; 9: e729–44. Appendix 3: Authorship appendix to “Forecasting the effects of smokin...

Background : Smoking is the leading behavioural risk factor for mortality globally, accounting for more than 175 million deaths and nearly 4·30 billion years of life lost (YLLs) from 1990 to 2021. The pace of decline in smoking prevalence has slowed in recent years for many countries, and although strategies have recently been proposed to achieve t...

Up-to-date estimates of stroke burden and attributable risks and their trends at global, regional, and national levels are essential for evidence-based health care, prevention, and resource allocation planning. We aimed to provide such estimates for the period 1990–2021. We estimated incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-year (...

Background: Up-to-date estimates of stroke burden and attributable risks and their trends at global, regional, and national levels are essential for evidence-based health care, prevention, and resource allocation planning. We aimed to provide such estimates for the period 1990–2021. Methods: We estimated incidence, prevalence, death, and disabilit...

During the pandemic, Latin American countries suffered the collapse of their health systems. This was caused by the high demand for care of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, which was added to the care of patients with other diseases. The significant increase in demand for health services caused medical and laboratory supplies to decline rapidly....

Background Upper respiratory infections (URIs) are the leading cause of acute disease incidence worldwide and contribute to a substantial health-care burden. Although acute otitis media is a common complication of URIs, the combined global burden of URIs and otitis media has not been studied comprehensively. We used results from the Global Burden o...

Background: Alopecia areata (AA) is an autoimmune disease characterized by non-scaring hair loss and preservation of hair follicles. The information available on disease course, and clinical features of AA is scarce worldwide, and almost nonexistent in Colombia. Objective: To determine the clinical and sociodemographic characteristics of patient...

Objective To estimate the economic burden associated with COVID-19 in Córdoba, Colombia, 2020 and 2021. Methods Economic burden study. Direct costs were analyzed from the third-party payer perspective using healthcare administrative databases and interviews from a cohort of confirmed COVID-19 cases from Córdoba. Costing aggregation was performed b...

Resumo Objetivo: Estimar a carga econômica associada à covid-19 em Córdoba, Colômbia, entre 2020 e 2021. Métodos: Estudo de avaliação da carga econômica da covid-19. Os custos diretos foram analisados segundo terceiros pagadores, usando-se bases de dados administrativas e entrevistas. A agregação dos custos foi realizada usando-se o método bottom-u...

Objectives: Vitiligo is an autoimmune disease that causes depigmentation of the skin and significantly impacts the quality of life of patients. In Colombia, the National Registry of Patients with Vitiligo (REVIC) is focused on collecting real-world data about this disease in our country. Our aim was to describe the clinical and socio-demographic ch...

Health in Colombia is a fundamental right provided in the Constitution of the year 1991 and protected by the State. Based on the proposed analysis methodology, the shortcomings, strengths, and difficulties of the current health system are evident. They are contrasted with the bill approved by the House of Representatives and a rigorous analysis of...

Análisis y reflexiones sobre el Modelo de Salud en Colombia: ¿Se requiere un cambio?  Adalberto Llinás Delgado universidad del Atlánticohttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0665-8180  Rusvelt Franklin Vargas Moranth Universidad Libre, Seccional Barranquillahttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1014-0969  Adalgisa Alcocer OlacireguiUniversidad Libre, Seccional Barr...

There is evidence linking nitrosative-oxidative stress and antioxidant defenses to pathogenesis of various infectious diseases, including dengue and zika. Serum concentrations of Mn-SOD in SD patients were significantly higher than in DwoWS patients (95% CI difference 0.03 to 0.19 U/mL; p=0.005) as well as in those infected with ZIKV (95% CI differ...

Summary Background Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injur...

Background Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to i...

This appendix provides detailed information on the methods for the paper “Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021 with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021”

Background Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensiv...

Summary Background Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injur...

Health in Colombia is a fundamental right provided in the Constitution of the year 1991 and protected by the State. Based on the proposed analysis methodology, the shortcomings, strengths, and difficulties of the current health system are evident. They are contrasted with the bill approved by the House of Representatives and a rigorous analysis of...

Background Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-base...

Background Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important follow...

Background Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to...

Background Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to...

Background Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to i...

Background: Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to...