Naurinete de Jesus da Costa Barreto

National Institute for Space Research, Brazil | inpe · Center for Earth Systems Science

A reliable prognosis of extreme precipitation events in the tropics is arguably challenging to obtain due to the interaction of meteorological systems at various time scales. A pivotal component of the global climate variability is the so-called intraseasonal oscillations, phenomena that occur between 20 and 100 days. The Madden–Julian Oscillation...

Tropical rainfall time series present oscillations on a wide range of timescales, from hourly to decadal. In particular, such series are strongly linked with intraseasonal modulations at a scale between 20 to 100 days. Although the commonly used Empirical Orthogonal Function approach can reasonably capture the large-scale variability, it may not fu...

The research studied the output of climate change models that best express the actions of Upper Tropospheric Cyclonic Vortices (UTCV) in high levels in the Northeast Brazil (NEB). The UTCV were quantified by a daily occurrence for 5 years (1995 - 1999) in the period from October to March. The object of the study were 13 models from CMIP5/IPCC/AR5 (...

The performances of the simulation of the present climate of the Tropical Brazil (BrT) are evaluated based on eight global climate simulation models, belonging to the set of experiments "phase five of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project" (CMIP5). In comparison with observations, the models are able to capture the dominant features of rainfal...

O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o desempenho de estimadores de precipitação em relação aos dados observados por pluviômetros no leste da Amazônia, abrangendo os estados do Pará, Tocantins e Maranhão no período de janeiro de 2017 a dezembro de 2021. Como referência, foram utilizados dados de precipitação provenientes da Agência Nacional de Águas...

Monitoring rainfall in the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA), which comprises most of the largest tropical rainforest and largest river basin on the planet, is extremely important but challenging. The size of the area and land cover alone impose difficulties on the operation of a rain gauge network. Given this, we aimed to evaluate the performance of ni...

Climate change is a phenomenon directly attributed to human activity due to greenhouse gas emissions and changes in land use and land cover. In this way, climate change has and will have direct and indirect impacts on the components of the climate systems, including the hydrological cycle, through an increase in the frequency and intensity of extre...

During September–November 2020, the meteorological services of Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Paraguay, and Bolivia reported record‐high maximum temperatures in several warm spells during this season. Positive and significant trends in heat wave frequency, intensity, and duration have been recorded since the 1980s, particularly in large cities. In this s...

Precipitation predictions in the sub-seasonal timescale are very important for several sectors such as agriculture and energy in regions of South America that are very much affected by precipitation extremes, both excess and lack of rain. The aim of the present study is to investigate the ability of two S2S project models (ECMWF and NCEP) to detect...

Climate extremes, as recurring events, are the result of natural climate variability (including phenomena such as El Niño), which can have significant local and regional impacts on the society and the environment. These events are typically related to unusually high or low temperature, prolonged dry or wet conditions, heavy precipitation, or extrem...

Hydric ecosystem services in a non-disturbed rainforest of the Amazon, Amapá, Brazil Understanding the processes of the hydrological cycle of tropical forests reduces the uncertainties about water vapor estimates on a regional scale. Interception refers to water that does not participate directly in ecological processes. Thus, we investigated the i...

Understanding the processes of the hydrological cycle of tropical forests reduces the uncertainties about water vapor estimates on a regional scale. Interception refers to water that does not participate directly in ecological processes. Thus, we investigated the interception process using 30 pluviometers, spaced one kilometer apart, within an area...

The main objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models to simulate weekly rainfall over Tropical Brazil. Twenty-four years of the historical experiment of sixteen models for the austral summer and fall seasons were evaluated. In the analyzes performed in this study,...

This study analyses observed trends in extreme rainfall events in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP). Rainfall data sets with more than 60 years of record in MASP are used. In MASP, extreme rainfall events represent hydro meteorological hazards that trigger flash floods and landslides. Changes in rainfall extremes can be partly due to natura...

The main objective of this study is to assess the ability of several high-resolution satellite-based precipitation estimates to represent the Precipitation Diurnal Cycle (PDC) over Brazil during the 2014–2018 period, after the launch of the Global Precipitation Measurement satellite (GPM). The selected algorithms are the Global Satellite Mapping of...

The rain influence the hydrological dynamics in Amazonian rivers (flood, spate, ebb and drought). Hydrological dynamic influences both aquatic organisms and the social, economic and logistics infrastructure of the inhabitants of the Amazon River banks. Thus, studies investigating the relationship between rainfall and the river level are needed to u...

The aim of this study was to analyze the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event, which happened from 2015 to 2016, on the variability of extreme rainfall-flow events, level and power generation observed in the Curuá-Una power plant reservoir. The electric power generation data were used to evaluate the effect of extreme rainfall...

Our paper reviews recent progress in the study and understanding of observed trends in extreme rainfall events in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP). These are discussed in relation to hydrometeorological hazards that trigger natural disasters, such as flash floods, landslides, and droughts, that affect the population and local economies. A...

Our paper reviews recent progress in the study and understanding of observed trends in extreme rainfall events in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP). These are discussed in relation to hydrometeorological hazards that trigger natural disasters, such as flash floods, landslides, and droughts, that affect the population and local economies. A...

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a significant public health problem and a neglected tropical disease according to the World Health Organization. The VL disease has several factors favorable to its expansion such as geographic extension, populational socio-demographic conditions as well as climate conditions. By considering this scenario the present...

TCT is a climate atlas that presents current and future climate change projections in India. The scenarios available in version 1.0 are the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Users can select a range of variables, including climate extremes. Our atlas was funded through the PREPARE Project, an Indo-Norwegian collaboration between TERI and NORCE. The project is p...

The Intraseasonal scale is particularly important in climate science because it acts as a modulator of weather systems. It is also one of the most difficult time scales to predict due to the strong influence of large-scale atmospheric systems. We have developed a subseasonal forecast model called HyCOSM: a Hybrid-COupled-Stochastic Model for subsea...

The South American Monsoon System (SAMS) has been more studied in recent decades, especially relating to the modulation of the annual rainy season and the differences between summer and winter over South America. On the other hand, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) also shows a more pronounced signal during the austral summer months and is capabl...

Climate forecasts at subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales have received little attention until recently, even though research focused on seasonal forecasting are already being developed for several decades. The S2S forecasts seek to fill a significant gap between short and long-term forecasts, and its applicability can be seen in several social...

The intraseasonal variability over South America is investigated using a multivariate index based on the Maximum Covariance Analyses (MCA). This technique identifies the correlation patterns of two different data sets. The CPC grid precipitation over South America and the tropical means (15°N‐15°S) of OLR and zonal wind component at 850hPa and 200h...

Na Amazônia, as grandes flutuações do nível dos rios modulam a pesca e influenciam no quantitativo capturado pelos pescadores. Nesse sentido, objetivou-se caracterizar e avaliar o efeito da variação hidrológica sobre os recursos pesqueiros no município de Santarém, Pará. As informações sobre as espécies do pescado desembarcado foram obtidas por ent...

In the Amazon, large fluctuations in rivers’ level modulate fishing and influence the quantity captured by fishermen. The objective of this study was to characterize and evaluate the effect of hydrological variation on fishery resources in the municipality of Santarém, Pará. Information on the fish species landed was obtained by interviews with fis...

A avaliação da sensação térmica em Santarém é importante, devido à recente expansão física e populacional da cidade. Santarém é a terceira maior cidade do Pará, tanto em tamanho, quanto em população. O clima Equatorial, caracterizado com temperatura do ar e umidade relativa do ar elevadas ao longo do ano, associado a variações diurnas de temperatur...

Estudos sobre o clima urbano nem sempre estão presentes nos instrumentos legais de planejamento, limitando-se, muitas vezes, à climatologia regional. É o caso do Plano Diretor e de arborização de Santarém, que não leva em consideração dados meteorológicos. A hipótese central deste trabalho é que, com a expansão da malha urbana na região Santarém-Cu...

Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) exhibits wide range of variability viz. on sub-daily, daily, intra-seasonal, inter-annual, decadal and centennial time scales. At intra-seasonal scale the ISM variability is mainly associated with the fluctuations in active (good rainfall) and break (less rainfall) spells. Active and break spells within a monsoon season...

Kick-off Workshop of Indo-Norwegian Project PREPARE; Bergen, Norway, 27–31 March 2017

Presently, the desertification process comes as one of the most serious environmental problems, affecting a large area within the Brazilian Northeastern. Anthropogenic activities such as soil reuse and burnings act as input to erosion processes, dams’ siltation and to desertification. The main purpose of the present work is to identify the impacts...

A pesquisa estudou a saída de modelos de mudanças climáticas que melhor expressam a atuação dos Vórtices Ciclônicos em Altos Níveis (VCANs) no Nordeste Brasileiro (NEB). Os VCANs foram quantificados pela sua ocorrência diária durante 5 anos (1995-1999), no período de outubro a março. O objeto de estudo foram 13 modelos do CMIP5/IPCC/AR5 (Coupled Mo...

Este estudo apresenta uma visão geral do desempenho dos modelos climáticos globais que participam do Projeto de Intercomparação de Modelos Acoplados Fase 5 (CMIP5) na simulação da variabilidade semanal da precipitação pluvial sobre o Brasil Tropical (BrT). As médias semanais calculadas para regiões específicas de chuva do BrT foram comparadas com a...

In recent decades, the use of statistical models in climate science has contributed significantly and qualitatively in the simulations and forecasts of several meteorological variables distributed by several researchers in climate. These models, when properly adjusted the ability to increase understanding of the expected results. In this paper we d...

This study shows an assessment of the seasonal forecast model RegCM3 in two extreme events of precipitation for the years 2006 and 2007. For the analysis a 1° x 1º km horizontal resolution was used and validated with 30 x 15 points of latitude x longitude for the region of the State of Amapa. The presented results are for the comparison between sim...

The present work classifies the climate of Seridó microregion of Rio Grande do Norte state based on the Thornthwaite classification system. The data used for the classification are climatological averages of monthly rainfall of seventeen raingauges located in the area and temperatures estimated through Estima_T software. The region showed five meso...

This article compares the thresholds of drought severity indices of four methods: Percentile, Percent of Normal Precipitation, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and a new proposed method, named modified SPI (SPI_M). This comparison considered precipitation data from 1961 to 2009 period for the capital cities of Northeast of Brazil region. Four...

This article compares the thresholds of drought severity indices of four methods: Percentile, Percent of Normal Precipitation, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and a new proposed method, named modified SPI (SPI_M). This comparison considered precipitation data from 1961 to 2009 period for the capital cities of Northeast of Brazil region. Four...

The present work classifies the climate of Seridó microregion of Rio Grande do Norte state based on the Thornthwaite classification system. The data used for the classification are climatological averages of monthly rainfall of seventeen raingauges located in the area and temperatures estimated through Estima_T software.