Nathaniel Heatwole

• PhD
• Analyst at Acumen, LLC

Model validation in economics is more difficult than in other disciplines, especially at the macroeconomic level. It is not subject to controlled experiments because it involves independent individual decision-makers and their interactions in the context of background conditions, such as changes business cycles and technological change, many of whi...

This chapter illustrates the modeling procedures for estimating the reduced form coefficients for the E-CAT user interface tool. The process includes the following steps: a random sampling procedure, a CGE simulation with an automatic looping function, and an econometric analysis including both ordinary least squares estimation (OLS) and quantile r...

This chapter introduces the design of the E-CAT user interface tool. The tool is based on Excel and Visual Basic for Application (VBA). Three different economic consequence options are developed for each type of threat, including a point estimate (Option 1), interval estimate (Option 2) and uncertainty distribution (Option 3). Step-by-step instruct...

Economic consequences of natural, intentional, and accidental hazards include uncertainties associated with hazardous events and the economic structure of regions affected by these events. These uncertainties may arise due to variability in an event’s magnitude, timing, duration, and location, as well as differing economic structures in various reg...

The full set of U.S. Homeland Security National Risk Characterization (HSNRC) Threats is presented in Table 3.1. This chapter presents examples of scenarios and direct economic impacts for two example threats: earthquakes and human pandemic. Each section consists of a summary description of the scenario, conversion of concepts to drivers that can b...

The purposes of this chapter are to identify a broad range of categories of economic consequences of major threats and to develop a checklist tool that provides a framework for their examination in subsequent chapters in this report. The Enumeration approach described below intends to improve the accuracy of economic consequence estimation. Many st...

This chapter details Step 4 of the research framework: CGE modeling. CGE model simulations are run for each of the multiple random draws for each different hazard scenario. Relevant Direct Impact values are input into the USCGE model of the US economy, which captures the combined and interactive effects of these impacts through price changes and su...

This chapter details Step 4 of the research framework. This Step plays a key role in linking CGE analysis results to the reduced-form model. The CGE output and employment results serve as the set of independent variables against which the independent variables are regressed. We refer to the independent variables as User Interface Variables. The res...

This study develops a methodology for rapidly obtaining approximate estimates of the economic consequences from numerous natural, man-made and technological threats. This software tool is intended for use by various decision makers and analysts to obtain estimates rapidly. It is programmed in Excel and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) to facilit...

We analyze the macroeconomic and trade impacts of reducing wait times by adding customs officer at each of the twelve major land freight crossings of the U.S. The change in wait time stemming from staffing changes is first estimated on the basis of primary data and then translated into changes in freight costs through a logistical model. The transp...

Modeling the economic consequences of disasters has reached a high level of maturity and accuracy in recent years. Methods for providing reasonably accurate rapid estimates of economic losses, however, are still limited. This article presents the case for “reduced-form” models for rapid economic consequence estimation for disasters, and specifies a...