Natalie Linton

Severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections have been associated with substantial presymptomatic transmission, which occurs when the generation interval—the time between infection of an individual with a pathogen and transmission of the pathogen to another individual—is shorter than the incubation period—the time between infectio...

An unprecedented surge of COVID-19 cases in Taiwan in May 2021 led the government to implement strict nationwide control measures beginning May 15. During the surge, the government was able to bring the epidemic under control without a complete lockdown despite the cumulative case count reaching >14,400 and >780 deaths. We investigated the effectiv...

Background Public health and social measures (PHSM) against COVID-19 in Japan involve requesting the public to voluntarily reduce social contact; these measures are not legally binding. The effectiveness of such PHSM has been questioned with emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant (B.1.1.7), which exhibited elevated transmissibility.Materials and...

Quantitative assessments of when infectious disease outbreaks end are crucial, as resources targeted towards outbreak responses typically remain in place until outbreaks are declared over. Recent improvements and innovations in mathematical approaches for determining when outbreaks end provide public health authorities with more confidence when mak...

Background Following an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the cruise ship Diamond Princess, passengers and crew were followed up to determine prognosis. We examined the epidemiological determinants of COVID-19 natural history using these follow-up data. Methods We analysed infection status, diagnosis, clinical symptoms and prognos...

The Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games represent the most diverse international mass gathering event held since the start of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Postponed to summer 2021, the rescheduled Games were set to be held amidst what would become the highest-ever levels of COVID-19 transmission in the host city of Tokyo. A...

Severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections have been associated with substantial presymptomatic transmission, which occurs when the generation interval--the time between infection of an individual with a pathogen and transmission of the pathogen to another individual--is shorter than the incubation period--the time between infec...

Following the first report of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Sapporo city, Hokkaido Prefecture, Japan, on 14 February 2020, a surge of cases was observed in Hokkaido during February and March. As of 6 March, 90 cases were diagnosed in Hokkaido. Unfortunately, many infected persons may not have been recognized due to having mild or no sy...

Objectives: End-of-outbreak declarations are an important component of outbreak response as they indicate that public health and social interventions may be relaxed or lapsed. The present study aimed to assess end-of-outbreak probabilities for clusters of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases detected during the first wave of the COVID-19 pand...

Forecasting future epidemics helps inform policy decisions regarding interventions. During the early coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic period in January–February 2020, limited information was available, and it was too challenging to build detailed mechanistic models reflecting population behavior. This study compared the performance of phenomenolog...

When a novel infectious disease emerges, enhanced contact tracing and isolation are implemented to prevent a major epidemic, and indeed, they have been successful for the control of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), which have been greatly reduced without causing a global pandemic. Considering tha...

Introduction of African swine fever (ASF) to China in mid-2018 and subsequent transboundary spread across Asia devastated regional swine production, affecting live pig and pork product-related markets worldwide. In order to explore the spatiotemporal spread of ASF in China, we reconstructed possible ASF transmission networks using nearest neighbour...

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)—the virus that causes coronavirus disease (COVID-19)—has been detected in domestic dogs and cats, raising concerns of transmission from, to, or between these animals. There is currently no indication that feline-or canine-to-human transmission can occur, though there is rising evidence of...

Following the first report of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Sapporo City, Hokkaido Prefecture, Japan on 14 February 2020, a surge of cases was observed in Hokkaido during February and March. As of 6 March, 90 cases were diagnosed in Hokkaido. Unfortunately, many infected persons may not have been recognized as cases due to having mild or n...

Objective To estimate the serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from information on 28 infector-infectee pairs. Methods We collected dates of illness onset for primary cases (infectors) and secondary cases (infectees) from published research articles and case investigation reports. We subjectively ranked the credibility of the data and p...

The number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases worldwide continues to grow, and the gap between reports from China and statistical estimates of incidence based on cases diagnosed outside China indicates that a substantial number of cases are underdiagnosed (Nishiura et al., 2020a). Estimation of the asymptomatic ratio—the percentage of carriers w...

Virological tests have now shown conclusively that a novel coronavirus is causing the 2019–2020 atypical pneumonia outbreak in Wuhan, China. We demonstrate that non-virological descriptive characteristics could have determined that the outbreak is caused by a novel pathogen in advance of virological testing. Characteristics of the ongoing outbreak...

The impact of the drastic reduction in travel volume within mainland China in January and February 2020 was quantified with respect to reports of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections outside China. Data on confirmed cases diagnosed outside China were analyzed using statistical models to estimate the impact of travel reduction on three epidemiolo...

To understand the severity of infection for a given disease, it is common epidemiological practice to estimate the case fatality risk, defined as the risk of death among cases. However, there are three technical obstacles that should be addressed to appropriately measure this risk. First, division of the cumulative number of deaths by that of cases...

The impact of the drastic reduction in travel volume within mainland China in January and February 2020 was quantified with respect to reports of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections outside China. Data on confirmed cases diagnosed outside China were analyzed using statistical models to estimate the impact of travel reduction on three epidemiolo...

The geographic spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections from the epicenter of Wuhan, China, has provided an opportunity to study the natural history of the recently emerged virus. Using publicly available event-date data from the ongoing epidemic, the present study investigated the incubation period and other time intervals that gover...

The exported cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection that were confirmed outside China provide an opportunity to estimate the cumulative incidence and confirmed case fatality risk (cCFR) in mainland China. Knowledge of the cCFR is critical to characterize the severity and understand the pandemic potential of COVID-19 in the early stage...

Objective To estimate the serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from information on 28 infector-infectee pairs. Methods We collected dates of illness onset for primary cases (infectors) and secondary cases (infectees) from published research articles and case investigation reports. We subjectively ranked the credibility of the data and p...

Reanalysis of the epidemic curve from the initial cluster of cases with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in December 2019 indicates substantial human-to-human transmission. It is possible that the common exposure history at a seafood market in Wuhan originated from the human-to-human transmission events within the market, and the early, strong emphasi...

A total of 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan, China to Japan. All passengers were screened for symptoms and also undertook reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction testing, identifying 4 asymptomatic and 4 symptomatic passengers testing positive for 2019-nCoV. We show that the screening result is suggestive of the asymptomatic...

The geographic spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections from the epicenter of Wuhan, China, has provided an opportunity to study the natural history of the recently emerged virus. Using publicly available event-date data from the ongoing epidemic, the present study investigated the incubation period and other time intervals that gover...

From 29 to 31 January 2020, a total of 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan, China on three chartered flights. All passengers were screened upon arrival in Japan for symptoms consistent with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection and tested for presence of the virus. Assuming that the mean detection window of the virus can be informed b...

The exported cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection who were confirmed in other countries provide a chance to estimate the cumulative incidence and confirmed case fatality risk (cCFR) in China. Knowledge of the cCFR is critical to characterize the severity and understand pandemic potential of 2019-nCoV in the early stage of epidemic....

Objective: Virological tests indicate that a novel coronavirus is the most likely explanation for the 2019-20 pneumonia outbreak in Wuhan, China. We demonstrate that non-virological descriptive characteristics could have determined that the outbreak is caused by a novel pathogen in advance of virological testing. Methods: Characteristics of the ong...

A cluster of pneumonia cases linked to a novel coronavirus (2019‐nCoV) was reported by China in late December 2019. Reported case incidence has now reached the hundreds, but this is likely an underestimate. As of 24 January 2020, with reports of thirteen exportation events, we estimate the cumulative incidence in China at 5502 cases (95% confidence...

Objective: To estimate the time-dependent measles effective reproduction number (Rt) as an indicator of the impact of three outbreak response vaccination (ORV) campaigns on measles transmission during a nationwide outbreak in Guinea. Methods: Rt represents the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case in a partially im...

In October 2016, Seattle Children's Hospital notified the Washington State Department of Health (DOH) and CDC of a cluster of acute onset of limb weakness in children aged ≤14 years. All patients had distinctive spinal lesions largely restricted to gray matter detected by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), consistent with acute flaccid myelitis (AFM...

Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are a major public health challenge, and undermine social and economic development in much of the developing world, including Bangladesh. Epidemiologic evidence on the socioeconomic status (SES)-related pattern of NCDs remains limited in Bangladesh. This study assessed the relationship between three chronic...

Objectives: To evaluate the effectiveness of Walk With Ease (WWE), an evidence-based arthritis self-management program that was scaled up in Oregon in 2012 to 2014. Methods: Guided by the RE-AIM (Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, Maintenance) framework, we collected participant surveys and attendance records and conducted observati...

During June-July 2015, Public Health-Seattle & King County (PHSKC) and Washington State Department of Health (WADOH) investigated 22 clusters of Salmonella serotype I 4,[5], 12:i:- infections. Serotype I 4,[5], 12:i:- is the fifth most frequently reported Salmonella serotype in the United States, but is uncommon in Washington.* On July 29, 2015, WA...