Natalia B Mantilla-Beniers

Natalia B Mantilla-Beniers
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México | UNAM · Department of Mathematics

PhD

About

14
Publications
2,410
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358
Citations
Additional affiliations
February 2008 - January 2009
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Position
  • PostDoc Position
November 2005 - October 2007
Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência (IGC)
Position
  • Researcher
January 2005 - September 2005
University of Cambridge
Position
  • PostDoc Position
Education
October 2000 - January 2005
University of Cambridge
Field of study
  • Disease Ecology
August 1997 - June 2000
November 1992 - June 1996

Publications

Publications (14)
Article
Epidemiological models usually contain a set of parameters that must be adjusted based on available observations. Once a model has been calibrated, it can be used as a forecasting tool to make predictions and to evaluate contingency plans. It is customary to employ only point estimators of model parameters for such predictions. However, some models...
Poster
Full-text available
Resumen de trabajos de modelado matemático para las proyecciones de COVID-19 en la CDMX y evaluación de medidas de mitigación. Con datos al 4 de mayo del 2020. Trabajo colectivo de investigadores de la UNAM y colaboradores de otras instituciones.
Preprint
Full-text available
Epidemiological models contain a set of parameters that must be adjusted based on available observations. Once a model has been calibrated, it can be used as a forecasting tool to make predictions and to evaluate contingency plans. It is customary to employ only point estimators for such predictions. However, some models may fit the same data reaso...
Article
Full-text available
Background According to national epidemiological surveillance records, in Mexico six intestinal infectious diseases (IID) are among the top infectious communicable diseases. However, their incidence, relative importance, and spatial patterns have not been studied in detail. Aims We examine the epidemiology of IID due to bacteria and protozoa to id...
Data
A supplementary material is available as a word document file which contains the following. Supplementary Table 1: median incidence (per 100 000) and 95% confidence interval of intestinal infectious diseases for 2003-2012 at the national level and for the states. Supplementary Table 2: median incidence (per 100 000) and 95% confidence interval of i...
Conference Paper
Internet-based monitoring of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) has become more common since its beginnings nearly a decade ago, both through estimates based on the number of searches for influenza-related terms (e.g., Google flu trends), or by means of participatory surveillance systems. The latter, often seen as ways of engaging people in matters of...
Conference Paper
Monitoring of influenza like illnesses (ILI) using the Internet has become more common since its beginnings nearly a decade ago. The initial project of Der Grote Griep Meting was launched in 2003 in the Netherlands and Belgium. It was designed as a means of engaging people in matters of scientific and public health importance, and indeed attracted...
Article
Full-text available
Seasonal changes in the environment are known to be important drivers of population dynamics, giving rise to sustained population cycles. However, it is often difficult to measure the strength and shape of seasonal forces affecting populations. In recent years, statistical time-series methods have been applied to the incidence records of childhood...
Article
Natural infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, as well as cross-immune reactions with the constituent of standard vaccines, attenuated M. bovis, and other species of mycobacteria confer partial immunity to subsequent M. tuberculosis infection. It has been shown in the past that the immune response to mycobacteria found naturally in the environm...
Article
In recent centuries bird species have been deteriorating in status and becoming extinct at a rate that may be 2-3 orders of magnitude higher than in prehuman times. We examined extinction rates of bird species designated critically endangered in 1994 and the rate at which species have moved through the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List categ...
Article
One-third of the world population (approximately 2 billion individuals) is currently infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the vast majority harboring a latent infection. As the risk of reactivation is around 10% in a lifetime, it follows that 200 million of these will eventually develop active pulmonary disease. Only therapeutic or post-exposu...
Chapter
IntroductionConcepts and Methods An Example with Two Directly Transmitted Diseases: Measles and Pertussis DynamicsConclusion AcknowledgmentsReferences
Article
Measles and pertussis are ubiquitous vaccine-preventable diseases, which remain an important public health problem in developing countries. Hence, developing a deep understanding of their transmission dynamics remains imperative. To achieve this, we compared the impact of vaccination at both individual and population levels in a Senegalese rural co...
Article
Full-text available
An important issue in population biology is the dynamic interaction between pathogens. Interest has focused mainly on the indirect interaction of pathogen strains, mediated by cross immunity. However, a mechanism has recently been proposed for 'ecological interference' between pathogens through the removal of individuals from the susceptible pool a...

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