Myung Hwan Seo

Myung Hwan Seo
Seoul National University | SNU · Department of Economics

Doctor of Philosophy

About

52
Publications
8,954
Reads
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1,054
Citations
Citations since 2017
28 Research Items
772 Citations
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2017201820192020202120222023050100150200
2017201820192020202120222023050100150200
2017201820192020202120222023050100150200
Additional affiliations
September 2004 - August 2014
The London School of Economics and Political Science
Position
  • Lecturer

Publications

Publications (52)
Preprint
Full-text available
While applications of big data analytics have brought many new opportunities to economic research, with datasets containing millions of observations, making usual econometric inferences based on extreme estimators would require huge computing powers and memories that are often not accessible. In this paper, we focus on linear quantile regression em...
Preprint
Full-text available
Instrumental variables (IV) are often used to provide exogenous variation in the impulse response analysis but the heterogeneous effects the IV may identify are rarely discussed. In microeconometrics, on the other hand, it is well understood that an IV identifies the local average treatment effect (Imbens and Angrist, 1994). Recognizing that macro...
Article
We develop a new method of online inference for a vector of parameters estimated by the Polyak-Ruppert averaging procedure of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithms. We leverage insights from time series regression in econometrics and construct asymptotically pivotal statistics via random scaling. Our approach is fully operational with online...
Article
We propose tests of the conditional first- and second-order stochastic dominance in the presence of growing numbers of covariates. Our approach builds on a semiparametric location-scale model, where the conditional distribution of the outcome given the covariates is characterized by nonparametric mean and skedastic functions with independent innova...
Preprint
Full-text available
We derive a risk lower bound in estimating the threshold parameter without knowing whether the threshold regression model is continuous or not. The bound goes to zero as the sample size $ n $ grows only at the cube root rate. Motivated by this finding, we develop a continuity test for the threshold regression model and a bootstrap to compute its \t...
Preprint
Full-text available
We develop a new method of online inference for a vector of parameters estimated by the Polyak-Ruppert averaging procedure of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithms. We leverage insights from time series regression in econometrics and construct asymptotically pivotal statistics via random scaling. Our approach is fully operational with online...
Article
We discuss Fryzlewicz’s paper that proposes WBS2.SDLL approach to detect possibly frequent changes in mean of a series. Our focus is on the potential issues related to the model misspecification. We present some numerical examples such as the self-exciting threshold autoregression and the unit root process, that can be confused as a frequent change...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper, we estimate the time-varying COVID-19 contact rate of a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. Our measurement of the contact rate is constructed using data on actively infected, recovered and deceased cases. We propose a new trend filtering method that is a variant of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, constrained by the number...
Preprint
We develop an inference method for a (sub)vector of parameters identified by conditional moment restrictions, which are implied by economic models such as rational behavior and Euler equations. Building on Bierens (1990), we propose penalized maximum statistics and combine bootstrap inference with model selection. Our method is optimized to be powe...
Article
Full-text available
We investigate state‐dependent effects of fiscal multipliers and allow for endogenous sample splitting to determine whether the U.S. economy is in a slack state. When the endogenized slack state is estimated as the period of the unemployment rate higher than about 12%, the estimated cumulative multipliers are significantly larger during slack perio...
Preprint
Full-text available
In this paper, we estimate the time-varying COVID-19 contact rate of a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. Our measurement of the contact rate is constructed using data on actively infected, recovered and deceased cases. We propose a new trend filtering method that is a variant of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, constrained by the number...
Article
Full-text available
Objectives Amid the global COVID-19 crisis, South Korea has been touted for successfully preventing the spread of the infectious disease, which may be due to the aggressive implementation of preventive policies. We evaluated the spread pattern of COVID-19 in South Korea considering the potential impact of policy interventions on transmission rates....
Article
We propose a Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) estimator of a predictive regression in which stock returns are conditioned on a large set of lagged covariates, some of which are highly persistent and potentially cointegrated. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed LASSO estimator and validate our theoretical fi...
Preprint
We develop a class of tests for the structural stability of infinite-order models such as the infinite-order autoregressive model and the nonparametric sieve regression. When the number $ p $ of restrictions diverges, the traditional tests based on the suprema of Wald, LM and LR statistics or their exponentially weighted averages diverge as well. W...
Preprint
We investigate state-dependent effects of fiscal multipliers and allow for endogenous sample splitting to determine whether the US economy is in a slack state. When the endogenized slack state is estimated as the period of the unemployment rate higher than about 12 percent, the estimated cumulative multipliers are significantly larger during slack...
Article
In this article, we develop a command, xthenreg, that implements the first-differenced generalized method of moments estimation of the dynamic panel threshold model that Seo and Shin (2016, Journal of Econometrics 195: 169–186) proposed. Furthermore, we derive the asymptotic variance formula for a kink-constrained generalized method of moments esti...
Preprint
We develop a Stata command xthenreg to implement the first-differenced GMM estimation of the dynamic panel threshold model, which Seo and Shin (2016, Journal of Econometrics 195: 169-186) have proposed. Furthermore, We derive the asymptotic variance formula for a kink constrained GMM estimator of the dynamic threshold model and include an estimatio...
Article
This paper considers robust inference in threshold regression models when the practitioners do not know whether at the threshold point the true specification has a kink or a jump, nesting previous works that assume either continuity or discontinuity at the threshold. We find that the parameter values under the kink restriction are irregular points...
Preprint
We propose a novel two-regime regression model where the switching between the regimes is driven by a vector of possibly unobservable factors. When the factors are latent, we estimate them by the principal component analysis of a much larger panel data set. Our approach enriches conventional threshold models in that a vector of factors may represen...
Article
Full-text available
This paper is concerned with inference in regression models with either a kink or a jump at an unknown threshold, particularly when we do not know whether the kink or jump is the true specification. One of our main results shows that the statistical properties of the estimator of the threshold parameter are substantially different under the two set...
Article
Full-text available
Using the Reinhart-Rogoff dataset, we find a debt threshold not around 90 percent but around 30 percent above which the median real GDP growth falls abruptly. Our work is the first to formally test for threshold effects in the relationship between public debt and median real GDP growth. The null hypothesis of no threshold effect is rejected at the...
Article
Full-text available
This paper examines asymptotic properties of local M-estimators under three sets of high-level conditions. These conditions are sufficiently general to cover the minimum volume predictive region, conditional maximum score estimator for a panel data discrete choice model, and many other widely used estimators in statistics and econometrics. Specific...
Article
This paper addresses an important issue of modelling nonlinear asymmetric dynamics and unobserved individual heterogeneity in the threshold panel data framework, simultaneously. As a general approach, we develop the first-differenced GMM estimator, which allows both threshold variable and regressors to be endogenous. When the threshold variable bec...
Article
This article develops a statistical test for the presence of a jump in an otherwise smooth transition process. In this testing, the null model is a threshold regression and the alternative model is a smooth transition model. We propose a quasi Gaussian likelihood ratio statistic and provide its asymptotic distribution, which is defined as the maxim...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper, we consider a high dimensional quantile regression model where the sparsity structure may differ between the two sub-populations. We develop $\ell_1$-penalized estimators of both regression coefficients and the threshold parameter. Our penalized estimators not only select covariates but also discriminate between a model with homogene...
Article
While a great number of predictive variables for stock returns have been suggested, their prediction power is unstable. We propose a Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) estimator of a predictive regression in which stock returns are conditioned on a large set of lagged covariates, some of which are highly persistent and potentia...
Technical Report
Full-text available
In the high-dimensional sparse modeling literature, it has been crucially assumed that the sparsity structure of the model is homogeneous over the entire population. That is, the identities of important regressors are invariant across the population and across the individuals in the collected sample. In practice, however, the sparsity structure may...
Article
Testing for structural stability has attracted a lot of attention in theoretical and applied research. Oftentimes the test is based on the supremum of, for example, the Wald statistic when the break is assumed to be in the interval [ n] < s < n [ n] for some > 0 and where n denotes the sample size. More recently there has been some work to allow th...
Article
This paper revisits the least squares estimator of the linear regression with a structural break. We view the model as an approximation to the true data generating process whose exact nature is unknown but perhaps changing over time either continuously or with some jumps. This view is widely held in the forecasting literature and under this view, t...
Article
Full-text available
We consider a high-dimensional regression model with a possible change-point due to a covariate threshold and develop the Lasso estimator of regression coefficients as well as the threshold parameter. Our Lasso estimator not only selects covariates but also selects a model between linear and threshold regression models. Under a sparsity assumption,...
Article
Full-text available
In this article, we develop a general method for testing threshold effects in regression models, using sup-likelihood-ratio (LR)-type statistics. Although the sup-LR-type test statistic has been considered in the literature, our method for establishing the asymptotic null distribution is new and nonstandard. The standard approach in the literature...
Article
This paper is concerned with semiparametric estimation of a threshold binary response model. The estimation method considered in the paper is semiparametric since the parameters for a regression function are finite-dimensional, while allowing for heteroskedasticity of unknown form. In particular, the paper considers Manski's [Manski, Charles F., 19...
Article
We propose non-nested hypotheses tests for conditional moment restriction models based on the method of generalized empirical likelihood (GEL). By utilizing the implied GEL probabilities from a sequence of unconditional moment restrictions that contains equivalent information of the conditional moment restrictions, we construct Kolmogorov-Smirnov a...
Article
Full-text available
This paper develops a test of the unit root null hypothesis against a stationary threshold process+ This testing problem is nonstandard and complicated because a parameter is unidentified and the process is nonstationary under the null hypothesis+ We derive an asymptotic distribution for the test, which is not pivotal without simplifying assumption...
Article
Full-text available
Asymptotic inference in nonlinear vector error correction models (VECM) thatexhibit regime-specific short-run dynamics is nonstandard and complicated. Thispaper contributes the literature in several important ways. First, we establish theconsistency of the least squares estimator of the cointegrating vector allowing forboth smooth and discontinuous...
Article
Full-text available
This paper is concerned with semiparametric estimation of a threshold binaryresponse model. The estimation method considered in the paper is semiparametricsince the parameters for a regression function are finite-dimensional, whileallowing for heteroskedasticity of unknown form. In particular, the paper considersManski (1975, 1985)'s maximum score...
Article
Full-text available
Asymptotic theory for the estimation of nonlinear vector error correction models that exhibit regime-specific short-run dynamics is developed. In particular, regimes are determined by the error correction term, and the transition between regimes is allowed to be discontinuous, as in, e.g., threshold cointegration. Several nonregular problems are re...
Article
This paper is concerned with semiparametric estimation of a threshold binary response model. The estimation method considered in the paper is semiparametric since the parameters for a regression function are finite-dimensional, while allowing for heteroskedasticity of unknown form. In particular, the paper considers Manski’s [Manski, Charles F., 19...
Article
We develop a test for the linear no cointegration null hypothesis in a threshold vector error correction model. We adopt a sup-Wald type test and derive its null asymptotic distribution. A residual-based bootstrap is proposed, and the first-order consistency of the bootstrap is established. A set of Monte Carlo simulations shows that the bootstrap...
Article
Full-text available
We propose a smoothed least squares estimator of the parameters of a threshold regression model. Our model generalizes that considered in Hansen [2000. Sample splitting and threshold estimation. Econometrica 68, 575–603] to allow the thresholding to depend on a linear index of observed regressors, thus allowing discrete variables to enter. We also...
Article
Full-text available
There is a growing literature on unit root testing in threshold autoregressive models. This paper makes two contributions to the literature. First, an asymptotic theory is developed for unit root testing in a threshold autoregression, in which the errors are allowed to be dependent and heterogeneous, and the lagged level of the dependent variable i...
Article
Full-text available
This paper shows that …nite sample properties in unit root testing can be improved upon signi…cantly. We employ a simple two-step procedure to estimate the spectral density at the origin (the long-run variance). Approximation of a moving average process by a pure autoregression can yield a poor spectral density estimator even in moderate sample siz...
Article
Full-text available
This paper establishes the consistency and convergence rate of the least squares (LS) and smoothed least squares (SLS) estimator of the threshold cointegration model in a vector error correction framework. The convergence rates of the cointegrating vector estimates are faster than the standard n-rate, which can be obtained in a linear cointegration...
Article
This paper obtains an asymptotic distribution for the least squares estimator of the self-exciting threshold autoregressive model, which was introduced by Tong (1983), under the assumption that the model is an approximation to a more complicated nonparametric system. Under some moderate assumptions on the true data generating process, it is shown t...

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