Muhammad Adnan

Muhammad Adnan
Global Change Impact Studies Centre

M. Phil.

About

22
Publications
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417
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Introduction
Muhammad Adnan currently works at Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC), Islamabad, Pakistan. My research interest includes weather & climate extremes, past and future climate changes and monsoon variability & predictability. The most recent publication is 'Assessment of CMIP5 climate models over South Asia and climate change projections over Pakistan under representative concentration pathways'.

Publications

Publications (22)
Article
Full-text available
Rainfall variability and increasing frequency and intensity of weather extremes have become two important and crucial factors for policymakers since last few decades. Considering the vulnerability of Pakistan's economy to extreme events, demand for robust projections of future changes in rainfall variability and extremes is essential for stakeholde...
Article
Rainfall variability associated with the South Asian Summer Monsoon has increased in recent decades, particularly at the northwestern monsoon margins over Pakistan, leading to more frequent and intense hydro-meteorological extremes that have adversely affected the agrarian economy, water and food security in the country. Devising effective strategi...
Article
Full-text available
Pakistan receives huge amount of rainfall during summer monsoon season that provides water replenishment for transition periods, helps in maintaining natural and anthropogenic ecosystems, and increased crop productivity. In this changing world, shifts in summer monsoon onset in Pakistan have been observed that seems to affect the society in general...
Article
Full-text available
Flash floods are the most devastating climate change induced events occurring in most parts of the world including Pakistan. The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) & satellite image processing technique through ArcGIS is a useful tool to analyze flood risk in regions where little or no data are available. This study was conducted to categorize possible...
Article
Full-text available
Future climate change projections from global climate models (GCMs) are the primary drivers of regional downscaling and impacts research. Climate projections are also in increased demand from disaster management agencies, policymakers, and other stakeholders. A set of 36 global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project Phase 5...
Article
Full-text available
Accurate climatic prediction is a need of the day and it is possible if the factors affecting climate are thoroughly investigated. To know the annual temperature trend the data of past 50 years (1961-2010) of Kohat station, Pakistan was studied. Short-term changes (10 years) and long-term changes (50 years) are analyzed by using regression models....
Article
Full-text available
Accurate climatic prediction is a need of the day and it is possible if the factors affecting climate are thoroughly investigated. To know the annual temperature trend the data of past 50 years (1961-2010) of Kohat station, Pakistan was studied. Short-term changes (10 years) and long-term changes (50 years) are analyzed by using regression models....
Article
Full-text available
Agriculture contributes around a quarter to Pakistan's economy and is closely linked with the variability of monsoon rainfall. The prediction of monsoon rains with sufficient lead time has immense importance for the planning and management of water resources and agriculture. In this study, Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Principal Component Re...
Article
Full-text available
This study examines the relationship of climate extremes indices with the large-scale factors like Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST). The prediction of extreme indices is carried out and is based on statistical downscaling using the extreme indices data, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) monthly SLP and S...
Article
Full-text available
Temperature and rainfall are the major climate factors affecting crop growth and development, especially under rain-fed agriculture. The changing and diversified climatic conditions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) from northern to southern regions under the cu rrent climate change scenario may pose serious threat to crop production and livelihood. Addr...
Article
Full-text available
According to IPCC TAR (2001), some natural climate variations such as ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation), PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) and NAO (Northern Atlantic Oscillation) / NAM (Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode), can significantly alter the behavior of extreme events, including floods, droughts, hurricanes and c...
Article
Full-text available
Watershed management plays a significant role in water assets engineering and management. Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques provide an effective solution to manage data that signify the hydrological features of the watershed. Determination of high accuracy and imagining topographic features of the earth's surf...
Article
Full-text available
Watershed management plays a significant role in water assets engineering and management. Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques provide an effective solution to manage data that signify the hydrological features of the watershed. Determination of high accuracy and imagining topographic features of the earth’s surf...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Global assessments have shown that future climate change is likely to significantly impact forest ecosystems. This report describes the contribution of GCISC to the study: “Development of National Response Strategy to combat Impact of Climate Change on Forests of Pakistan” awarded to Pakistan Forest Institute, Ministry of Environment by National Fo...
Article
Full-text available
Over the last few decades, weather and climate extremes have become a major focus of researchers, the media and general public due to their damaging effects on human society and infrastructure. Trends in indices of climate extremes are studied for the South Asian region using high-quality records of daily temperature and precipitation observations....
Article
Full-text available
South Asia covers more than 30° of latitude with weather observation stations situated from 6 °N at Galle, Sri Lanka, to 36 °N at Chitral in Pakistan. Moreover, the South Asian station network ranges in altitude from sea level to nearly 4000 m above sea level. This paper uses time series of 11 objectively defined indices of daily temperature extrem...
Chapter
Full-text available
A key societal aspect is to recognize the factors controlling the spatial variability and the distribution patterns of rainfall in a season, and its long as well as short term variability due to natural factors. We archive the climate variations from instrumental as well as land and marine archives for the entire SE Asia which are crucial for its a...
Chapter
Full-text available
The global warming and consequently the global climate change over the recent few decades due to the increasing concentrations of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) caused by the use of fossil fuel and other anthropogenic activities in the atmosphere is an established phenomenon now and is a matter of major worldwide concern. Its effects have been observed in...
Technical Report
Full-text available
The earth’s climate system has demonstrably changed on both global and regional scales since the pre-industrial era (1860) (IPCC, 2001). There is now a new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributed to human activities. The concentration of the main greenhouse gas, CO2, which stood at a level of 280...

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